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Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Avaí Goiás ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Goiás win · Goiás 2–1 Avaí
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "471d9d4383827976336994db051bea04332ddf781f650dcf6e13f8ddce97c71b",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.3572,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.3451,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.2977,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.09,
"away_win_prob": 0.3572,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3572,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.636,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.364,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3451,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.3451,
"fair_odds_away": 2.8,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.8,
"fair_odds_draw": 2.9,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 2.9,
"fair_odds_home": 3.36,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 3.36,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.74,
"home_win_prob": 0.2977,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.2977,
"over_25_prob": 0.277,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.723
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Ava\u00ed",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Ava\u00ed"
},
"away_xg": 1.09,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Ava\u00ed",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1362,
"edge_gap": 0.0123,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2211,
"model_prob": 0.3573,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.7,
"draw": 34.5,
"home": 29.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 4.35
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.35,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Ava\u00ed Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.52,
"market_odds": 4.35,
"model_odds": 2.8,
"overround": 4.0,
"prob_edge": 12.7,
"value_pct": 55.4,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 9,
"away_played": 27,
"away_score_rate": 66.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 10,
"home_played": 27,
"home_score_rate": 52.3,
"no_prob": 63.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 63.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 36.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.09,
"home_expected": 0.74,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 17.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 16.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.9
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Goi\u00e1s or Draw",
"prob": 64.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Goi\u00e1s or Ava\u00ed",
"prob": 65.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Ava\u00ed",
"prob": 70.2
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Ava\u00ed",
"pick_prob": 70.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.7,
"draw_pct": 34.5,
"home_pct": 29.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Ava\u00ed"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 1.83,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 27.7,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 72.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 1.83,
"under_prob": 72.3
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 55.4,
"implied_prob": 23.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Ava\u00ed Win",
"model_prob": 35.7,
"odds": 4.35
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Ava\u00ed",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 22.11,
"draw": 29.06,
"home": 48.83
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 18:59:25",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 18:30:35",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Goi\u00e1s",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.83,
"gap_pp": -19.05,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 29.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.06,
"gap_pp": 5.44,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 34.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.11,
"gap_pp": 13.62,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.56,
"gap_pp": -9.86,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 27.7
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.44,
"gap_pp": 9.86,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 72.3
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.97,
"early": 1.97,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.83,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.83,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.31,
"early": 3.31,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.06,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.06,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.35,
"early": 4.35,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.11,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.11,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.56,
"early": 2.56,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.56,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.56,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.54,
"early": 1.54,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.44,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"best_odds": 9.5,
"edge": 7.0,
"ev": 66.1,
"label": "0-1",
"probability": 17.5
},
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 7.0,
"ev": 0.6625,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "0-1",
"market_odds": 9.5,
"market_prob": 0.1053,
"market_prob_pct": 10.5,
"model_prob": 0.175,
"model_prob_pct": 17.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 17.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 17.5
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 16.0
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.9
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.74,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Betano",
"best_odds": 4.55,
"confidence": "no_clear_edge",
"display_label": "Away Ava\u00ed",
"edge": 13.8,
"ev": 0.0,
"probability": 35.7
},
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.485,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"edge": 0.0518,
"edge_pp": 5.2,
"market_prob": 0.6163,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.723,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3528,
"best_odd": 2.425,
"edge": -0.0377,
"ev": -0.1607,
"implied_prob": 0.3837,
"model_prob": 0.277,
"p_final": 0.3461
},
"p_final": 0.668,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0917,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0087,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.485,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": 0.0518,
"ev": 0.0087,
"implied_prob": 0.6163,
"model_prob": 0.723,
"p_final": 0.668
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2909,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -29.1,
"text": "-29.1%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1206,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 12.1,
"text": "+12.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1206,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 27.7,
"sort_key": 10258.54,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 72.3,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5123,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.645,
"edge": 0.0386,
"edge_pp": 3.9,
"market_prob": 0.5607,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.636,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5123,
"best_odd": 1.645,
"edge": 0.0386,
"ev": -0.0142,
"implied_prob": 0.5607,
"model_prob": 0.636,
"p_final": 0.5993
},
"p_final": 0.5993,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0462,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0142,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4657,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.035,
"ev": -0.1512,
"implied_prob": 0.4393,
"model_prob": 0.364,
"p_final": 0.4042
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0621,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.2,
"text": "+6.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1992,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.9,
"text": "-19.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0621,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 63.6,
"sort_key": 10055.89,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 36.4
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 4.35,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0562,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.6,
"text": "+5.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2211,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0562,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.6,
"text": "+5.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3573,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5543,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+55.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Ava\u00ed",
"sort_key": 10050.58,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 832.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 17.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.8%",
"alert_team": "Goi\u00e1s",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 19.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -19.06,
"hero_label": "Goi\u00e1s",
"market_prob_pct": 22.1,
"market_team": "Goi\u00e1s",
"model_prob_pct": 35.7,
"model_team": "Ava\u00ed",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Ava\u00ed), but pricing still diverges by 19.1 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Ava\u00ed), but pricing still diverges by 19.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1206,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5542,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ava\u00ed at 35.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ava\u00ed as the value side (35.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ava\u00ed",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Ava\u00ed \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.15 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520884 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.15 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Ava\u00ed), but pricing still diverges by 19.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0562,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.35,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2211,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3573,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2298850574712644,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5543,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+55.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -19.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.35
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (19 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 19.06,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 19.06,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.09,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -19.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.74,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.09,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.74 \u00b7 Away xG 1.09 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -19%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.8%",
"steam_team": "Goi\u00e1s",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Ava\u00ed), but pricing still diverges by 19.1 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Ava\u00ed), but pricing still diverges by 19.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1206,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5542,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ava\u00ed at 35.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ava\u00ed as the value side (35.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ava\u00ed",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Ava\u00ed \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.15 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520884 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.15 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Ava\u00ed), but pricing still diverges by 19.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0562,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.35,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2211,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3573,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2298850574712644,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5543,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+55.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -19.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.35
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Goi\u00e1s 0.74 xG vs Ava\u00ed 1.09 \u2192 Ava\u00ed 35.7%",
"Market: Goi\u00e1s ~22.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Goi\u00e1s odds \u2191 +3.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Ava\u00ed, but market pricing diverges by 19 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -19.06,
"fair_prob": 29.77,
"label": "Goi\u00e1s",
"market_prob": 48.83,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.45,
"fair_prob": 34.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.61,
"fair_prob": 35.72,
"label": "Ava\u00ed",
"market_prob": 22.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.65,
"fair_prob": 27.7,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.35,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.65,
"fair_prob": 72.3,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.65,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.32,
"fair_prob": 36.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 43.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.32,
"fair_prob": 63.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 56.28,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -19.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.77,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Goi\u00e1s",
"market_prob_pct": 48.83,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Goi\u00e1s"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Goi\u00e1s\u0027s win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.8%, a difference of 19.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 19.06,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ava\u00ed",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 22.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+13.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 13.6,
"model_prob_pct": 35.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+13.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Ava\u00ed \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Goi\u00e1s 0.74 xG vs Ava\u00ed 1.09 \u2192 Ava\u00ed 35.7%",
"Market: Goi\u00e1s ~22.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Goi\u00e1s odds \u2191 +3.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Ava\u00ed, but market pricing diverges by 19 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -19.06,
"hero_label": "Goi\u00e1s",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Goi\u00e1s odds lengthened \u2191 +3.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Goi\u00e1s than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Goi\u00e1s.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Goi\u00e1s than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Goi\u00e1s."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Goi\u00e1s more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Goi\u00e1s (\u2191 +3.8%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Goi\u00e1s."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 19.06,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.2 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.2,
"max_prob_pct": 35.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Goi\u00e1s",
"largest_gap_pp": -19.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Goi\u00e1s higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 19.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -19.06,
"edge_pp": -19.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Goi\u00e1s",
"market_prob_pct": 48.83,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.45,
"edge_pp": 5.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.06,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 13.61,
"edge_pp": 13.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.72,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ava\u00ed",
"market_prob_pct": 22.11,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Goi\u00e1s.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Goi\u00e1s (22.1%).",
"Goi\u00e1s odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.8%, 8/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ava\u00ed, Market \u2192 Goi\u00e1s, while Goi\u00e1s odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 50.76,
"closing_odds": 1.97,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 50.76,
"entry_odds": 1.97,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 109h 26m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Goi\u00e1s (3.8%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.97",
"1.90",
"1.83"
],
"display": "2.00 \u2192 1.80 \u2192 1.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 109h 26m",
"pick_team": "Goi\u00e1s",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.83,
1.97,
1.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.83"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.83"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.97"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.83,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on Goi\u00e1s",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Goi\u00e1s",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.8%",
"open_odds": 1.83,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Goi\u00e1s",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 1.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.8%",
"open_odds": 1.83,
"pick_team": "Goi\u00e1s",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_team_name": "Goi\u00e1s",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 19.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "avai",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "Ava\u00ed",
"away_team_id": 145,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/145.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ava\u00ed",
"away_team_public_id": "5YP1SuA1N4qeb2",
"away_team_slug": "avai",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1520884,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Goi\u00e1s",
"home_team_id": 151,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/151.webp",
"home_team_name": "Goi\u00e1s",
"home_team_public_id": "3hMLEy2kfnv83K",
"home_team_slug": "goias",
"ht.home_team_slug": "goias",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_id": 72,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
"league_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_public_id": "2LSvtRZWAbkOzE",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 19:00:00",
"public_id": "0MAf83dUA0VPrM",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Goiania",
"venue_name": "Est\u00e1dio da Serrinha"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1592,
"best_odd": 4.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0217,
"ev": 0.0562,
"implied_prob": 0.2211,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2211,
"draw": 0.2906,
"home": 0.4883
},
"model_prob": 0.3573,
"p_final": 0.2428
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2755,
"best_odd": 3.31,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": 0.0115,
"implied_prob": 0.2906,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2211,
"draw": 0.2906,
"home": 0.4883
},
"model_prob": 0.345,
"p_final": 0.3056
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4285,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0816,
"ev": -0.1989,
"implied_prob": 0.4883,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2211,
"draw": 0.2906,
"home": 0.4883
},
"model_prob": 0.2977,
"p_final": 0.4066
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.35,
"edge": 0.1274,
"ev": 0.5542,
"implied_prob": 0.2299,
"model_prob": 0.3573
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.31,
"edge": 0.0429,
"ev": 0.1418,
"implied_prob": 0.3021,
"model_prob": 0.345
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": -0.2099,
"ev": -0.4134,
"implied_prob": 0.5076,
"model_prob": 0.2977
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5123,
"alpha_yes": 0.4657,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0732,
"edge_yes": -0.0732,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0621,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0142,
"ev_yes": -0.1992,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1512,
"implied_no": 0.5628,
"implied_yes": 0.4372,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5123,
"best_odd": 1.645,
"edge": 0.0386,
"ev": -0.0142,
"implied_prob": 0.5607,
"model_prob": 0.636,
"p_final": 0.5993
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4657,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.035,
"ev": -0.1512,
"implied_prob": 0.4393,
"model_prob": 0.364,
"p_final": 0.4042
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5993,
"p_final_yes": 0.4042,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3528,
"alpha_under": 0.485,
"best_over_odd": 2.56,
"best_under_odd": 1.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.425,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.51,
"edge_over": -0.1065,
"edge_under": 0.1065,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2909,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1607,
"ev_under": 0.1206,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0087,
"implied_over": 0.3835,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3837,
"implied_under": 0.6165,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6163,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3528,
"best_odd": 2.425,
"edge": -0.0377,
"ev": -0.1607,
"implied_prob": 0.3837,
"model_prob": 0.277,
"p_final": 0.3461
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.485,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": 0.0518,
"ev": 0.0087,
"implied_prob": 0.6163,
"model_prob": 0.723,
"p_final": 0.668
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3461,
"p_final_under": 0.668,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 1.83,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1206,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5542,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1206,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Ava\u00ed), but pricing still diverges by 19.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1206,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5542,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ava\u00ed at 35.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ava\u00ed as the value side (35.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ava\u00ed",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Ava\u00ed \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.15 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520884 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.15 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Ava\u00ed), but pricing still diverges by 19.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0562,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.35,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2211,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3573,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2298850574712644,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5543,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+55.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -19.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.35
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
"scoring_type": "defensive",
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"total_xg": 1.83,
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},
"type": "defensive",
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},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
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"side": "away",
"side_label": "Ava\u00ed"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"consensus_odds": 1.645,
"edge": 0.0386,
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"no": {
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"edge": 0.0386,
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0142,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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}
},
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"over": {
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},
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},
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},
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"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1520884,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1206,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
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},
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"probabilities": {
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},
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"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
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"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ava\u00ed",
"home": "Goi\u00e1s"
},
"top_pick": {
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"ev": 0.1206,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
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},
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"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "+5.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.35,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2211,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3573,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2298850574712644,
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}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1520884,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T19:45:43.532130+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Goiás & Avaí!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Serie B Brazil — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 61 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 60 |
| 3 | Juventude | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 60 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 33 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 57 |
| 5 | Criciúma | 33 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 56 |
| 6 | Atlético Goianiense | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 53 |
| 7 | CRB | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 52 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 51 |
| 9 | Goiás | 33 | 14 | 6 | 13 | 48 |
| 10 | Operário-PR | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiabá | 33 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 46 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 43 |
| 14 | Náutico Recife | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 15 | Ceará | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 16 | Botafogo-SP | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 41 |
| 17 | Avaí | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 36 |
| 18 | Londrina | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 29 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 33 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 33 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 13 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 33 | 59 | 28 | +31 | 60 |
| 2 | CRB | 33 | 51 | 47 | +4 | 52 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 33 | 46 | 31 | +15 | 61 |
| 4 | São Bernardo | 33 | 46 | 36 | +10 | 46 |
| 5 | Sport Recife | 33 | 45 | 35 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 | Operário-PR | 33 | 44 | 45 | -1 | 48 |
| 7 | Londrina | 33 | 42 | 49 | -7 | 29 |
| 8 | Atlético Goianiense | 33 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 53 |
| 9 | Athletic Club | 33 | 40 | 39 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 | Juventude | 33 | 39 | 21 | +18 | 60 |
| 11 | Fortaleza EC | 33 | 39 | 29 | +10 | 57 |
| 12 | Náutico Recife | 33 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 42 |
| 13 | Botafogo-SP | 33 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 41 |
| 14 | Ceará | 33 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 42 |
| 15 | Criciúma | 33 | 34 | 28 | +6 | 56 |
| 16 | Goiás | 33 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 48 |
| 17 | Avaí | 33 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 36 |
| 18 | Cuiabá | 33 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 47 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 33 | 21 | 54 | -33 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 33 | 18 | 73 | -55 | 13 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 33 | 19.0 | 10.4 | +8.6 | 60 |
| 2 | Cuiabá | 33 | 14.1 | 7.2 | +6.9 | 47 |
| 3 | Fortaleza EC | 33 | 16.8 | 10.1 | +6.7 | 57 |
| 4 | Atlético Goianiense | 33 | 16.8 | 12.9 | +3.9 | 53 |
| 5 | Juventude | 33 | 12.8 | 9.3 | +3.5 | 60 |
| 6 | Vila Nova | 33 | 13.9 | 10.7 | +3.2 | 61 |
| 7 | Criciúma | 33 | 11.5 | 8.3 | +3.2 | 56 |
| 8 | CRB | 33 | 18.6 | 15.8 | +2.8 | 52 |
| 9 | Londrina | 33 | 12.5 | 10.9 | +1.6 | 29 |
| 10 | Avaí | 33 | 12.0 | 10.4 | +1.6 | 36 |
| 11 | Sport Recife | 33 | 15.5 | 14.2 | +1.3 | 51 |
| 12 | Botafogo-SP | 33 | 14.6 | 14.3 | +0.3 | 41 |
| 13 | Náutico Recife | 33 | 15.9 | 16.6 | -0.7 | 42 |
| 14 | São Bernardo | 33 | 13.9 | 15.2 | -1.3 | 46 |
| 15 | Goiás | 33 | 12.8 | 14.8 | -2.0 | 48 |
| 16 | Operário-PR | 33 | 14.5 | 17.2 | -2.7 | 48 |
| 17 | Ceará | 33 | 9.6 | 15.1 | -5.5 | 42 |
| 18 | América Mineiro | 33 | 11.9 | 18.4 | -6.5 | 17 |
| 19 | Athletic Club | 33 | 13.3 | 21.4 | -8.1 | 43 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 33 | 9.9 | 26.5 | -16.6 | 13 |
