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Athletic Club vs Operário-PR Statistics & Analysis

Jul 07, 2026 - 23:00
0 2.31
1 1.12
xG Accuracy: 51%
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Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian

Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.

  • Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
  • Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
  • Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
  • 1X2 Athletic Club Operário-PR ✖ Không đúng
  • Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 2-1, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-1 0-1 ✖ Không đúng

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1615496

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds 1.59
CLV Pending
Final Result Operário-PR win · Athletic Club 0–1 Operário-PR
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 62.9%
  • Historical Bucket: 60–65% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

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View technical JSON
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  "decision_algo_version": "2.2.1",
  "facts": {
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      "away_win_prob": 0.1604,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.382,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.618,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2105,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 6.23,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.75,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.59,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.31,
      "home_win_prob": 0.629,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.666,
      "prediction_confidence": "low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.334
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : Athletic Club or draw and -3.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Athletic Club",
      "percent_away": "30%",
      "percent_draw": "35%",
      "percent_home": "35%",
      "winner_name": "Athletic Club"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.12,
    "betting_insight": {
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      "confidence": 62.9,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "high",
        "display_text": "Winner : Athletic Club",
        "edge": 0.2585,
        "edge_gap": 0.4184,
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        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Athletic Club"
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      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.6
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#ff9800",
      "risk_key": "medium_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
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        "prob_edge": 24.4,
        "value_pct": 63.5,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
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    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 4,
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        "away_score_rate": 67.4,
        "home_clean_sheet": 3,
        "home_failed_to_score": 3,
        "home_played": 15,
        "home_score_rate": 90.1,
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        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 61.8,
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        "yes_prob": 61.8
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      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.12,
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          },
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-1",
            "prob": 7.5
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Athletic Club or Draw",
            "prob": 84.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Athletic Club or Oper\u00e1rio-PR",
            "prob": 78.9
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Oper\u00e1rio-PR",
            "prob": 37.1
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Athletic Club or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 84.0
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 16.0,
        "draw_pct": 21.1,
        "home_pct": 62.9,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Athletic Club"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": "-3.5",
        "avg_total": 3.43,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.1,
        "over_prob": 66.6,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 66.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 3.43,
        "under_prob": 33.4
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 63.5,
        "implied_prob": 38.5,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Athletic Club Win",
        "model_prob": 62.9,
        "odds": 2.6
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Oper\u00e1rio-PR",
      "closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
        "away": 31.07,
        "draw": 31.89,
        "home": 37.04
      },
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Athletic Club",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 37.04,
          "gap_pp": 25.85,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 62.89
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 31.89,
          "gap_pp": -10.84,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 21.05
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 31.07,
          "gap_pp": -15.02,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 16.05
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 35.15,
          "gap_pp": 31.45,
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          "closing_implied_pct": 64.85,
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      ],
      "movement": [
        {
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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        },
        {
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          "early": 3.02,
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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        {
          "closing": 3.1,
          "early": 3.1,
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          "implied_closing_pct": 35.15,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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        {
          "closing": 1.48,
          "early": 1.48,
          "implied_closing_pct": 64.85,
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          "implied_early_pct": 64.85,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 31.4,
        "kind": "ou_o"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-1",
        "prob": 9.7
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.31,
    "homepage_pick": {
      "best_bookmaker": "Betano",
      "best_odds": 2.6,
      "confidence": "strong",
      "display_label": "Home Athletic Club",
      "edge": 24.4,
      "ev": 63.5,
      "probability": 62.9
    },
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1483,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 14.8,
          "text": "+14.8%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.3704,
        "max_ev": 0.1483,
        "max_ev_display": {
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          "raw_pct": 14.8,
          "text": "+14.8%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.6289,
        "side_label": "Athletic Club",
        "sort_key": 10283.47,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": false,
        "ev_over": null,
        "ev_over_display": null,
        "ev_under": null,
        "ev_under_display": null,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": null,
        "over_prob": 66.6,
        "sort_key": 4050.0,
        "tier": "lean",
        "under_prob": 33.4,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": false,
        "ev_no": null,
        "ev_no_display": null,
        "ev_yes": null,
        "ev_yes_display": null,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": null,
        "no_prob": 38.2,
        "sort_key": 4050.0,
        "tier": "lean",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 61.8
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 809.1,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-1",
        "top_prob": 9.7
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "10/13",
        "alert_breadth_note": "10/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +8.5%",
        "alert_team": "Athletic Club",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 25.9,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 25.86,
        "hero_label": "Athletic Club",
        "market_prob_pct": 37.0,
        "market_team": "Athletic Club",
        "model_prob_pct": 62.9,
        "model_team": "Athletic Club",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 58,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "decision_chain": {
        "academy_links": [
          {
            "key": "market_disagree",
            "read_min": 5,
            "title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
            "url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "steam",
            "read_min": 4,
            "title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
            "url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "clv_pending",
            "read_min": 3,
            "title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
            "url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
          }
        ],
        "evidence": {
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "Statistical edge detected",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2717",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Market strongly disagrees",
              "status": "fail"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Sharp steam supports model side",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation warning",
              "status": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 3,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Warning",
              "tone": "caution"
            },
            {
              "key": "gap",
              "label": "Large market gap (26 pp)",
              "tone": "caution"
            },
            {
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Steam aligns with model",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 12.1,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 7.7,
            "steam_coherence": 10.0,
            "validation": 14.0
          },
          "score": 61,
          "stars": 3,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "suppress_execution": true,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Execution Confidence",
            "score": 39,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Model Value",
            "score": 46,
            "tier": "moderate",
            "tier_label": "Moderate"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "wait",
            "label": "Wait"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "icon": "\u23f8",
          "label": "Wait for validation",
          "tier": "wait"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Athletic Club 2.31 xG vs Oper\u00e1rio-PR 1.12 \u2192 Athletic Club 62.9%",
            "Market: Athletic Club ~37.0% implied",
            "Steam: Athletic Club \u2191 +8.5%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model leans Athletic Club, but market pricing diverges by 26 pp.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 25.86,
          "fair_prob": 62.9,
          "label": "Athletic Club",
          "market_prob": 37.04,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -10.84,
          "fair_prob": 21.05,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 31.89,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -15.03,
          "fair_prob": 16.04,
          "label": "Oper\u00e1rio-PR",
          "market_prob": 31.07,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 66.6,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 33.4,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 61.8,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 38.2,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 25.86,
        "fair_prob_pct": 62.9,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Athletic Club",
        "market_prob_pct": 37.04,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Athletic Club"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE1",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Athletic Club\u0027s win probability at 62.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 37.0%, a difference of 25.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "extreme",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 25.86,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": true
        },
        "divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "extreme",
        "divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
        "divergence_tier": "extreme",
        "edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Favourite",
          "favourite_label": "Athletic Club",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
          "headline": "Clear favourite",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 37.0,
          "model_prob_pct": 62.9,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "high",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Athletic Club, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
          "tier": "favourite",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Execution Confidence",
              "score": 39,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Model Value",
              "score": 46,
              "tier": "moderate",
              "tier_label": "Moderate"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "wait",
              "label": "Wait"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Athletic Club 2.31 xG vs Oper\u00e1rio-PR 1.12 \u2192 Athletic Club 62.9%",
              "Market: Athletic Club ~37.0% implied",
              "Steam: Athletic Club \u2191 +8.5%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model leans Athletic Club, but market pricing diverges by 26 pp.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "High",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 25.86,
        "hero_label": "Athletic Club",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Athletic Club odds lengthened \u2191 +8.5%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {},
        "market_narrative": {},
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 25.86,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 41.8 pp (at 62.9%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 41.8,
          "max_prob_pct": 62.9,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "High",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "extreme",
          "largest_gap_label": "Athletic Club",
          "largest_gap_pp": 25.9,
          "lead": "The model rates Athletic Club considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
          "level": "extreme",
          "max_gap_pp": 25.9,
          "title": "Strong Disagreement"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": 25.86,
            "edge_pp": 25.86,
            "fair_prob_pct": 62.9,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Athletic Club",
            "market_prob_pct": 37.04,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "model_edge",
            "signal_label": "Model Edge"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -10.84,
            "edge_pp": -10.84,
            "fair_prob_pct": 21.05,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 31.89,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -15.03,
            "edge_pp": -15.03,
            "fair_prob_pct": 16.04,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Oper\u00e1rio-PR",
            "market_prob_pct": 31.07,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Athletic Club (37.0%).",
          "However, Athletic Club has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +8.5%, 10/13).",
          "Model and market lean the same side on Athletic Club, but pricing gaps warrant caution."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 38.46,
        "closing_odds": 2.6,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 38.46,
        "entry_odds": 2.6,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 10,
        "books_reacting_detail": [
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 8,
            "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.5%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 8.5
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 32,
            "bookmaker_name": "Betano",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.4%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 7.4
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 9,
            "bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 6.2
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 4,
            "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 5.8
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 2,
            "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 5.6
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 11,
            "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.5%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 5.5
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 36,
            "bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 4.3
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 1,
            "bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 4.2
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 21,
            "bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 2.1
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 7,
            "bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 2.1
          }
        ],
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "10/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.55,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +8.5%",
        "move_pct_abs": 8.5,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 159h 22m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Athletic Club (8.5%, 10/13) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_delta_pct": 8.5,
        "odds_path": {
          "chart_y_labels": [
            "2.60",
            "2.48",
            "2.35"
          ],
          "display": "2.60 \u2192 2.25 \u2192 2.55",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 159h 22m",
          "pick_team": "Athletic Club",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.60"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.25"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.55"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_points": [
            2.35,
            2.6,
            2.55
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.6",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
          "summary_boxes": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.35"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "low",
              "value": "2.35"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "high",
              "value": "2.60"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.55"
            }
          ]
        },
        "open_odds": 2.35,
        "page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 10/13 sportsbooks on Athletic Club",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Athletic Club",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 58,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "10/13",
        "current_odds": 2.55,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +8.5%",
        "open_odds": 2.35,
        "pick_team": "Athletic Club",
        "steam_score": 58,
        "steam_team_name": "Athletic Club",
        "steam_tier": "B"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 25.9,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_id": 1223,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1223.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Oper\u00e1rio-PR",
      "country_code": "BR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
      "country_name": "Brazil",
      "fixture_id": 1520750,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "Brazil",
      "home_team_id": 13975,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/13975.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Athletic Club",
      "league_country": "Brazil",
      "league_id": 72,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
      "league_name": "Serie B Brazil",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-07-07 23:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Minas Gerais",
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2324,
            "best_odd": 3.1,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0349,
            "ev": -0.1451,
            "implied_prob": 0.3107,
            "model_prob": 0.1605,
            "p_final": 0.2758
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2512,
            "best_odd": 3.02,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0272,
            "ev": -0.1191,
            "implied_prob": 0.3189,
            "model_prob": 0.2105,
            "p_final": 0.2917
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2755,
            "best_odd": 2.6,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0712,
            "ev": 0.1483,
            "implied_prob": 0.3704,
            "model_prob": 0.6289,
            "p_final": 0.4416
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.43,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.1"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1483,
      "confidence": 7.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
        ],
        "guard_capped": true,
        "score": 3.0,
        "score_before_guard": 7.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.618,
          "draw_prob": 0.2105,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.6289,
          "over_prob": 0.666,
          "total_xg": 3.43,
          "under_prob": 0.334,
          "xg_diff": 1.19
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "guard_active": true,
      "guard_level": "extreme",
      "guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "guard_blocked",
          "decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0712,
          "ev": 0.1483,
          "guard_blocked": true,
          "implied_prob": 0.3704,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.6289,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Athletic Club"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.618,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.666,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1520750,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1483,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1605,
        "draw": 0.2105,
        "home": 0.6289
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Oper\u00e1rio-PR",
        "home": "Athletic Club"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.111919,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1483,
        "implied_prob": 0.3704,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.6289,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "home",
        "side_label": "Athletic Club",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1520750,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-07-07T22:59:06.856762+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Athletic Club & Operário-PR!

Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.

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Serie B Brazil Serie B Brazil — Bảng xếp hạng
# Đội Tr T H B Đ
1 Juventude 32 17 8 7 59
2 Vila Nova 32 17 7 8 58
3 Novorizontino 32 16 9 7 57
4 Fortaleza EC 32 15 11 6 56
5 Criciúma 32 15 8 9 53
6 Atlético Goianiense 32 14 10 8 52
7 CRB 32 15 6 11 51
8 Sport Recife 32 13 11 8 50
9 Operário-PR 32 13 9 10 48
10 Cuiabá 32 11 14 7 47
11 Goiás 32 13 6 13 45
12 São Bernardo 32 12 9 11 45
13 Náutico Recife 32 11 9 12 42
14 Ceará 32 11 9 12 42
15 Athletic Club 32 10 12 10 42
16 Botafogo-SP 32 10 8 14 38
17 Avaí 32 9 6 17 33
18 Londrina 32 7 7 18 28
19 América Mineiro 32 4 5 23 17
20 Ponte Preta 32 3 4 25 13
# Đội Tr BT BB +/- Đ
1 Novorizontino 32 54 27 +27 57
2 CRB 32 49 45 +4 51
3 Vila Nova 32 44 31 +13 58
4 Sport Recife 32 44 34 +10 50
5 São Bernardo 32 44 34 +10 45
6 Operário-PR 32 44 43 +1 48
7 Atlético Goianiense 32 40 30 +10 52
8 Londrina 32 40 47 -7 28
9 Náutico Recife 32 39 40 -1 42
10 Athletic Club 32 38 37 +1 42
11 Juventude 32 37 19 +18 59
12 Fortaleza EC 32 37 27 +10 56
13 Botafogo-SP 32 36 38 -2 38
14 Ceará 32 35 39 -4 42
15 Criciúma 32 33 28 +5 53
16 Cuiabá 32 32 25 +7 47
17 Goiás 32 32 40 -8 45
18 Avaí 32 32 43 -11 33
19 América Mineiro 32 21 53 -32 17
20 Ponte Preta 32 17 68 -51 13
# Đội Tr xG xGC +/- Đ
1 Novorizontino 32 17.2 9.2 +8.0 57
2 Fortaleza EC 32 16.8 10.1 +6.7 56
3 Cuiabá 32 12.3 7.0 +5.3 47
4 Atlético Goianiense 32 15.2 11.1 +4.1 52
5 Avaí 32 11.9 8.5 +3.4 33
6 Vila Nova 32 13.3 10.1 +3.2 58
7 CRB 32 18.6 15.8 +2.8 51
8 Juventude 32 10.2 8.0 +2.2 59
9 Criciúma 32 10.0 8.1 +1.9 53
10 Sport Recife 32 13.7 12.6 +1.1 50
11 Londrina 32 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 32 12.6 12.6 0.0 45
13 Botafogo-SP 32 13.7 13.8 -0.1 38
14 Náutico Recife 32 15.3 16.1 -0.8 42
15 Goiás 32 11.8 13.1 -1.3 45
16 Operário-PR 32 12.8 16.2 -3.4 48
17 Ceará 32 9.1 14.2 -5.1 42
18 América Mineiro 32 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 32 11.9 19.2 -7.3 42
20 Ponte Preta 32 8.7 24.8 -16.1 13