Náutico Recife vs Goiás Statistics & Analysis

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      "afp_draw_prob": 0.2012,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.6405,
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.21,
      "away_win_prob": 0.1583,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.1583,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.339,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.661,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2012,
      "draw_prob_posterior": 0.2012,
      "fair_odds_away": 6.32,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 6.32,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.97,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 4.97,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.56,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 1.56,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.65,
      "home_win_prob": 0.6405,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.6405,
      "over_25_prob": 0.741,
      "prediction_confidence": "low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.259
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : N\u00e1utico Recife or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : N\u00e1utico Recife",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "N\u00e1utico Recife"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.21,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "N\u00e1utico Recife",
      "confidence": 64.1,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "high",
        "display_text": "Winner : N\u00e1utico Recife",
        "edge": 0.1352,
        "edge_gap": 0.4396,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.5055,
        "model_prob": 0.6407,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 15.8,
          "draw": 20.1,
          "home": 64.1
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "N\u00e1utico Recife"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.9
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#ff9800",
      "risk_key": "medium_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.9,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "N\u00e1utico Recife Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.98,
        "market_odds": 1.9,
        "model_odds": 1.56,
        "overround": 4.1,
        "prob_edge": 11.5,
        "value_pct": 21.8,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 4,
        "away_failed_to_score": 5,
        "away_played": 14,
        "away_score_rate": 70.2,
        "home_clean_sheet": 4,
        "home_failed_to_score": 5,
        "home_played": 14,
        "home_score_rate": 92.9,
        "no_prob": 33.9,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 66.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 66.1
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.21,
        "home_expected": 2.65,
        "scores": [
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            "away": 1,
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            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.0
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-1",
            "prob": 7.9
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          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 7.4
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 6.8
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-0",
            "prob": 6.5
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "N\u00e1utico Recife or Draw",
            "prob": 84.1
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "N\u00e1utico Recife or Goi\u00e1s",
            "prob": 79.8
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Goi\u00e1s",
            "prob": 35.9
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "N\u00e1utico Recife or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 84.1
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      "match_winner": {
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        "draw_pct": 20.1,
        "home_pct": 64.0,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "N\u00e1utico Recife"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.86,
        "away_avg_scored": 0.9,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.5,
        "over_prob": 74.1,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 74.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 3.86,
        "under_prob": 25.9
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 21.8,
        "implied_prob": 52.6,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "N\u00e1utico Recife Win",
        "model_prob": 64.1,
        "odds": 1.9
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Goi\u00e1s",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "N\u00e1utico Recife",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 50.55,
          "gap_pp": 13.52,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 64.07
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 27.21,
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          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 20.11
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 22.23,
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          "model_pct": 15.82
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 46.53,
          "gap_pp": 27.57,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 74.1
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 53.47,
          "gap_pp": -27.57,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 25.9
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.9,
          "early": 1.9,
          "implied_closing_pct": 50.55,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 50.55,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
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        {
          "closing": 3.53,
          "early": 3.53,
          "implied_closing_pct": 27.21,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 27.21,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
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        {
          "closing": 4.32,
          "early": 4.32,
          "implied_closing_pct": 22.23,
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          "implied_early_pct": 22.23,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
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        {
          "closing": 2.08,
          "early": 2.08,
          "implied_closing_pct": 46.53,
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          "implied_early_pct": 46.53,
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        {
          "closing": 1.81,
          "early": 1.81,
          "implied_closing_pct": 53.47,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 53.47,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 27.6,
        "kind": "ou_o"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-1",
        "prob": 9.0
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.65,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0834,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 8.3,
          "text": "+8.3%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.5055,
        "max_ev": 0.0834,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 8.3,
          "text": "+8.3%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.6407,
        "side_label": "N\u00e1utico Recife",
        "sort_key": 10225.06,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
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        "ev_under": null,
        "ev_under_display": null,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        "over_prob": 74.1,
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        "value_side": "over"
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        "ev_yes": null,
        "ev_yes_display": null,
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        "id": "btts",
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        "no_prob": 33.9,
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        "tier": "lean",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 66.1
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 807.0,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-1",
        "top_prob": 9.0
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "4/13",
        "alert_breadth_note": "4/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +6.2%",
        "alert_team": "Draw",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 13.5,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": 13.5,
        "hero_label": "N\u00e1utico Recife",
        "market_prob_pct": 50.5,
        "market_team": "N\u00e1utico Recife",
        "model_prob_pct": 64.0,
        "model_team": "N\u00e1utico Recife",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 27,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "decision_chain": {
        "academy_links": [
          {
            "key": "market_disagree",
            "read_min": 5,
            "title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
            "url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "steam",
            "read_min": 4,
            "title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
            "url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "clv_pending",
            "read_min": 3,
            "title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
            "url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
          }
        ],
        "evidence": {
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "Statistical edge detected",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Market partially disagrees",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation warning",
              "status": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 1,
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Warning",
              "tone": "caution"
            },
            {
              "key": "gap",
              "label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
              "tone": "caution"
            },
            {
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Steam conflicts with model",
              "tone": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 18.2,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 3.1,
            "steam_coherence": 2.0,
            "validation": 14.0
          },
          "score": 54,
          "stars": 3,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Execution Confidence",
            "score": 43,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Model Value",
            "score": 24,
            "tier": "not_reliable",
            "tier_label": "Not reliable"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "monitor",
            "label": "Monitor"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
          "label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
          "tier": "monitor"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: N\u00e1utico Recife 2.65 xG vs Goi\u00e1s 1.21 \u2192 N\u00e1utico Recife 64.0%",
            "Market: N\u00e1utico Recife ~50.5% implied",
            "Steam: Draw \u2191 +6.2%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "N\u00e1utico Recife projects stronger on expected goals (+1.44 xG edge).",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 13.5,
          "fair_prob": 64.05,
          "label": "N\u00e1utico Recife",
          "market_prob": 50.55,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -7.09,
          "fair_prob": 20.12,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 27.21,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -6.4,
          "fair_prob": 15.83,
          "label": "Goi\u00e1s",
          "market_prob": 22.23,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 74.1,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 25.9,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 66.1,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 33.9,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 13.5,
        "fair_prob_pct": 64.05,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "N\u00e1utico Recife",
        "market_prob_pct": 50.55,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Draw"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 13.5,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Favourite",
          "favourite_label": "N\u00e1utico Recife",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
          "headline": "Clear favourite",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 50.5,
          "model_prob_pct": 64.0,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "high",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Model and market lean the same side on N\u00e1utico Recife, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
          "tier": "favourite",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Execution Confidence",
              "score": 43,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Model Value",
              "score": 24,
              "tier": "not_reliable",
              "tier_label": "Not reliable"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "monitor",
              "label": "Monitor"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: N\u00e1utico Recife 2.65 xG vs Goi\u00e1s 1.21 \u2192 N\u00e1utico Recife 64.0%",
              "Market: N\u00e1utico Recife ~50.5% implied",
              "Steam: Draw \u2191 +6.2%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "N\u00e1utico Recife projects stronger on expected goals (+1.44 xG edge).",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "High",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 13.5,
        "hero_label": "N\u00e1utico Recife",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +6.2%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.2%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on N\u00e1utico Recife.",
          "note": "",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on N\u00e1utico Recife.",
            "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.2%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate favors N\u00e1utico Recife more strongly than current market pricing.",
            "At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Market confirmation remains limited (4/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 13.5,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 43.9 pp (at 64.0%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 43.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 64.0,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "High",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 13.5,
            "fair_prob_pct": 64.05,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "N\u00e1utico Recife",
            "market_prob_pct": 50.55,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -7.09,
            "fair_prob_pct": 20.12,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 27.21,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -6.4,
            "fair_prob_pct": 15.83,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Goi\u00e1s",
            "market_prob_pct": 22.23,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers N\u00e1utico Recife (50.5%).",
          "Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +6.2%, 4/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 N\u00e1utico Recife, Market \u2192 N\u00e1utico Recife, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 52.63,
        "closing_odds": 1.9,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
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        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
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        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
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        "entry_odds": 1.9,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
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            "status": "done"
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            "detail": "",
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
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          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
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        ]
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        "books_total": 13,
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        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 135h 46m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
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          "Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
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        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
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          "pick_team": "Draw",
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          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
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        "open_odds": 3.2,
        "page_alert_line": "",
        "phase_label": "Volatile",
        "phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
        "pick_team": "Draw",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "warn",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
        "signal_key": "volatile_market",
        "signal_label": "Volatile market",
        "steam_score": 27,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
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      "market_overview": {
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        "current_odds": 3.4,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
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        "pick_team": "Draw",
        "steam_score": 27,
        "steam_team_name": "Draw",
        "steam_tier": "C"
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      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 13.5,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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      "show": true
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    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 151,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/151.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Goi\u00e1s",
      "country_code": "BR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
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      "home_team_id": 755,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/755.webp",
      "home_team_name": "N\u00e1utico Recife",
      "league_country": "Brazil",
      "league_id": 72,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
      "league_name": "Serie B Brazil",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-28 21:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Recife",
      "venue_name": null
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    "match_decision": {
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
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          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 9.0
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            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
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    "unified_decision": {
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        "ou_2_5": {
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          "value_side": "over"
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      },
      "match_id": 1520747,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
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        "max_valid_ev": 0.0834,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1582,
        "draw": 0.2011,
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      "reason_codes": [
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Goi\u00e1s",
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        "side_label": "N\u00e1utico Recife",
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      "valid_markets_count": 1
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  "fixture_id": 1520747,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-28T21:29:08.026218+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}