Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Viimsi Tartu Welco ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.59
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Tartu Welco win · Viimsi 0–2 Tartu Welco
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "1ec768187ba10d2999c8e7cbb575780cd47e5912c68b122d1c341eb87aa02846",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.14,
"away_win_prob": 0.2793,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.462,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.538,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.292,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.58,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.42,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.33,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.46,
"home_win_prob": 0.4286,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Viimsi or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Viimsi"
},
"away_xg": 1.14,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Viimsi",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0015,
"edge_gap": 0.1367,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4272,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 27.9,
"draw": 29.2,
"home": 42.9
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.08
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.08,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Viimsi Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.34,
"market_odds": 2.08,
"model_odds": 2.33,
"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": -5.2,
"value_pct": -10.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 28,
"away_score_rate": 68.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 10,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 28,
"home_score_rate": 76.8,
"no_prob": 46.2,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 53.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 53.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.14,
"home_expected": 1.46,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Viimsi or Draw",
"prob": 72.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Viimsi or Tartu Welco",
"prob": 70.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Tartu Welco",
"prob": 57.1
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Viimsi or Draw",
"pick_prob": 72.1
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 27.9,
"draw_pct": 29.2,
"home_pct": 42.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Viimsi"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 13.0,
"implied_prob": 25.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.2,
"odds": 3.87
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Tartu Welco",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 34.31,
"draw": 22.96,
"home": 42.72
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-17 15:59:53",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-17 15:30:22",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Viimsi",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.72,
"gap_pp": 0.15,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 42.88
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.96,
"gap_pp": 6.25,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.21
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.31,
"gap_pp": -6.4,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 27.91
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 66.26,
"gap_pp": -18.06,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.74,
"gap_pp": 18.06,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.08,
"early": 2.08,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.72,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.72,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.87,
"early": 3.87,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.96,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.96,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.59,
"early": 2.59,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.31,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.31,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.38,
"early": 1.38,
"implied_closing_pct": 66.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 66.26,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.71,
"early": 2.71,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.74,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 18.1,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.9,
"ev": 0.178,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.5,
"market_prob": 0.1053,
"market_prob_pct": 10.5,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.46,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1289,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.715,
"edge": 0.0244,
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"market_prob": 0.3288,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1773,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0335,
"ev": -0.1519,
"implied_prob": 0.6712,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6377
},
"p_final": 0.3532,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4064,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0411,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1289,
"best_odd": 2.715,
"edge": 0.0244,
"ev": -0.0411,
"implied_prob": 0.3288,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3532
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3059,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -30.6,
"text": "-30.6%"
},
"ev_under": 0.554,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 55.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.554,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10648.6,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1416,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0201,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.32,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.462,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1416,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.0206,
"implied_prob": 0.32,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.3401
},
"p_final": 0.3401,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3306,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0206,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1948,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"edge": -0.0277,
"ev": -0.116,
"implied_prob": 0.68,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.6524
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.386,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 38.6,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2683,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.8,
"text": "-26.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.386,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 46.2,
"sort_key": 10347.4,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 53.8
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1099,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.0,
"text": "-11.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4272,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0456,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.6,
"text": "-4.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1081,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Viimsi",
"sort_key": 1788.6,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +30.4%",
"alert_team": "Tartu Welco",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.38,
"hero_label": "Tartu Welco",
"market_prob_pct": 42.7,
"market_team": "Viimsi",
"model_prob_pct": 42.9,
"model_team": "Viimsi",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Viimsi)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Viimsi)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Viimsi at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Viimsi as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Viimsi",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Viimsi).",
"Decision strength: 8.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1099,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4272,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1081,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.38,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.38,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.14,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.46,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.46,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.46 \u00b7 Away xG 1.14 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +8%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +30.4%",
"steam_team": "Tartu Welco",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 99,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 99,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Viimsi).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Viimsi)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Viimsi)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Viimsi at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Viimsi as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Viimsi",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Viimsi).",
"Decision strength: 8.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1099,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4272,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1081,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Viimsi 1.46 xG vs Tartu Welco 1.14 \u2192 Viimsi 42.9%",
"Market: Viimsi ~42.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Tartu Welco odds \u2191 +30.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Viimsi with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.14,
"fair_prob": 42.86,
"label": "Viimsi",
"market_prob": 42.72,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.24,
"fair_prob": 29.2,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.38,
"fair_prob": 27.93,
"label": "Tartu Welco",
"market_prob": 34.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -18.76,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.96,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 18.76,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.04,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.26,
"fair_prob": 53.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 68.06,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.26,
"fair_prob": 46.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 31.94,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.93,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Tartu Welco",
"market_prob_pct": 34.31,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Tartu Welco"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Tartu Welco\u0027s win probability at 34.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 27.9%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.38,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Viimsi",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.2,
"model_prob_pct": 42.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Viimsi \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 99,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 99,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Viimsi 1.46 xG vs Tartu Welco 1.14 \u2192 Viimsi 42.9%",
"Market: Viimsi ~42.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Tartu Welco odds \u2191 +30.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Viimsi with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.38,
"hero_label": "Tartu Welco",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Tartu Welco odds lengthened \u2191 +30.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Tartu Welco. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Tartu Welco.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Tartu Welco. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Tartu Welco."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Tartu Welco above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Tartu Welco (\u2191 +30.4%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/7) supports the current market view on Tartu Welco."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.38,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.7 pp (at 42.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.7,
"max_prob_pct": 42.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Tartu Welco",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Tartu Welco higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 0.14,
"edge_pp": 0.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.86,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Viimsi",
"market_prob_pct": 42.72,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.24,
"edge_pp": 6.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.96,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.38,
"edge_pp": -6.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.93,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Tartu Welco",
"market_prob_pct": 34.31,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Tartu Welco.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Viimsi (42.7%).",
"However, Tartu Welco has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +30.4%, 6/7) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Viimsi \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.61,
"closing_odds": 2.59,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.61,
"entry_odds": 2.59,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +30.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +29.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 29.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +30.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 30.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 29h 17m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"6/7 books lengthened Tartu Welco together (30.4% drift, score 80) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.00",
"2.65",
"2.30"
],
"display": "3.30 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 29h 17m",
"pick_team": "Tartu Welco",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.3,
2.59,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,10.5 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.3,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Tartu Welco odds \u2191 +30.4% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Tartu Welco",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Tartu Welco odds \u2191 +30.4% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +30.4%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Tartu Welco",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +30.4%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"pick_team": "Tartu Welco",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_team_name": "Tartu Welco",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "tartu-welco",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Tartu Welco",
"away_team_id": 3524,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3524.webp",
"away_team_name": "Tartu Welco",
"away_team_public_id": "18tsktM3Axgc1a",
"away_team_slug": "tartu-welco",
"country_code": "EE",
"country_display_name": "Estonia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ee.svg",
"country_id": 50,
"country_name": "Estonia",
"fixture_id": 1519647,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Estonia",
"home_team_display_name": "Viimsi",
"home_team_id": 14340,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14340.webp",
"home_team_name": "Viimsi",
"home_team_public_id": "2NwTD8DJWTU9NL",
"home_team_slug": "viimsi",
"ht.home_team_slug": "viimsi",
"league_country": "Estonia",
"league_country_display": "Estonia",
"league_display_name": "Esiliiga A",
"league_id": 328,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/328.webp",
"league_name": "Esiliiga A",
"league_public_id": "5Oq0SzEuMjz9LR",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-17 16:00:00",
"public_id": "4GnL2f4k34RY7U",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Viimsi",
"venue_name": "Viimsi Staadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4068,
"best_odd": 2.59,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0261,
"ev": -0.1788,
"implied_prob": 0.3431,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3431,
"draw": 0.2296,
"home": 0.4272
},
"model_prob": 0.2791,
"p_final": 0.3171
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2719,
"best_odd": 3.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0456,
"implied_prob": 0.2296,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3431,
"draw": 0.2296,
"home": 0.4272
},
"model_prob": 0.2921,
"p_final": 0.2466
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.449,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0007,
"ev": -0.1099,
"implied_prob": 0.4272,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3431,
"draw": 0.2296,
"home": 0.4272
},
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"p_final": 0.4279
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.59,
"edge": -0.107,
"ev": -0.2772,
"implied_prob": 0.3861,
"model_prob": 0.2791
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.87,
"edge": 0.0337,
"ev": 0.1305,
"implied_prob": 0.2584,
"model_prob": 0.2921
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.052,
"ev": -0.1081,
"implied_prob": 0.4808,
"model_prob": 0.4288
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1416,
"alpha_yes": 0.1948,
"best_no_odd": 3.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.36,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1426,
"edge_yes": -0.1426,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.386,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0206,
"ev_yes": -0.2683,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.116,
"implied_no": 0.3194,
"implied_yes": 0.6806,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1416,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.0206,
"implied_prob": 0.32,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.3401
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1948,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"edge": -0.0277,
"ev": -0.116,
"implied_prob": 0.68,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.6524
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3401,
"p_final_yes": 0.6524,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1773,
"alpha_under": 0.1289,
"best_over_odd": 1.44,
"best_under_odd": 3.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.33,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.715,
"edge_over": -0.1876,
"edge_under": 0.1876,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3059,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1519,
"ev_under": 0.554,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0411,
"implied_over": 0.6696,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6712,
"implied_under": 0.3304,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3288,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1773,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0335,
"ev": -0.1519,
"implied_prob": 0.6712,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6377
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1289,
"best_odd": 2.715,
"edge": 0.0244,
"ev": -0.0411,
"implied_prob": 0.3288,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3532
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6377,
"p_final_under": 0.3532,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.554,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 8.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 8.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Viimsi)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Viimsi at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Viimsi as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Viimsi",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Viimsi).",
"Decision strength: 8.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1099,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4272,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1081,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.538,
"draw_prob": 0.2921,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4288,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.32
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0007,
"ev": -0.1099,
"implied_prob": 0.4272,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Viimsi"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1416,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0201,
"market_prob": 0.32,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.462,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1416,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.0206,
"implied_prob": 0.32,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.3401
},
"p_final": 0.3401,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0206,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1948,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"edge": -0.0277,
"ev": -0.116,
"implied_prob": 0.68,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.6524
}
},
"edge": 0.1426,
"ev": 0.386,
"implied_prob": 0.3194,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1289,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.715,
"edge": 0.0244,
"market_prob": 0.3288,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1773,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0335,
"ev": -0.1519,
"implied_prob": 0.6712,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6377
},
"p_final": 0.3532,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0411,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1289,
"best_odd": 2.715,
"edge": 0.0244,
"ev": -0.0411,
"implied_prob": 0.3288,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3532
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1876,
"ev": 0.554,
"implied_prob": 0.3304,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1519647,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.554,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2791,
"draw": 0.2921,
"home": 0.4288
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.386,
"implied_prob": 0.3194,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.462,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.386,
"implied_prob": 0.3194,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.462,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Tartu Welco",
"home": "Viimsi"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.20088,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.554,
"implied_prob": 0.3304,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1099,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4272,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1081,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1519647,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-17T15:59:55.912395+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Viimsi & Tartu Welco!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Esiliiga A — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 62 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 50 |
| 3 | Flora II | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 48 |
| 4 | Elva | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 48 |
| 5 | FCI Levadia II | 29 | 13 | 2 | 14 | 41 |
| 6 | Maardu | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 41 |
| 7 | Tallinna Kalev | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 37 |
| 8 | Nõmme United II | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Tallinn | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 32 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 22 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 30 | 81 | 39 | +42 | 62 |
| 2 | Flora II | 30 | 72 | 53 | +19 | 48 |
| 3 | FCI Levadia II | 29 | 60 | 55 | +5 | 41 |
| 4 | Viimsi | 30 | 56 | 31 | +25 | 50 |
| 5 | Tallinna Kalev | 29 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 37 |
| 6 | Nõmme United II | 30 | 50 | 62 | -12 | 36 |
| 7 | Elva | 30 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 48 |
| 8 | Maardu | 28 | 47 | 59 | -12 | 41 |
| 9 | FC Tallinn | 30 | 39 | 65 | -26 | 32 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 30 | 38 | 79 | -41 | 22 |
