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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Emelec Macará ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.89
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Macará win · Macará 1–0 Emelec
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "5aa0c500be67520dc1e8bab2bc326d5378b20723cfe58fc594f1d303bbae7d4c",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"away_win_prob": 0.358,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.503,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.497,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3134,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.79,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.19,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.04,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.15,
"home_win_prob": 0.3286,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.42,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.58
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Macar\u00e1 or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Macar\u00e1"
},
"away_xg": 1.21,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Emelec",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1468,
"edge_gap": 0.0295,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2113,
"model_prob": 0.3581,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.8,
"draw": 31.3,
"home": 32.9
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 4.49
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.49,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Emelec Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.73,
"market_odds": 4.49,
"model_odds": 2.79,
"overround": 5.4,
"prob_edge": 13.6,
"value_pct": 60.9,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 9,
"away_failed_to_score": 10,
"away_played": 28,
"away_score_rate": 70.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 29,
"home_score_rate": 68.3,
"no_prob": 50.3,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 50.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 49.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.21,
"home_expected": 1.15,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Macar\u00e1 or Draw",
"prob": 64.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Macar\u00e1 or Emelec",
"prob": 68.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Emelec",
"prob": 67.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Macar\u00e1 or Emelec",
"pick_prob": 68.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.8,
"draw_pct": 31.3,
"home_pct": 32.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Emelec"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.36,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 42.0,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 58.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.36,
"under_prob": 58.0
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 60.9,
"implied_prob": 22.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Emelec Win",
"model_prob": 35.8,
"odds": 4.49
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Emelec",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 21.13,
"draw": 28.67,
"home": 50.2
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 20:29:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 19:59:37",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Macar\u00e1",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 2.21,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.2,
"gap_pp": -17.34,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.67,
"gap_pp": 2.66,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 31.32
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.13,
"gap_pp": 14.68,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.81
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.09,
"gap_pp": -0.09,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 42.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.91,
"gap_pp": 0.09,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 58.0
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.89,
"early": 1.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.2,
"implied_delta_pp": -2.21,
"implied_early_pct": 52.41,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.31,
"early": 3.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.76,
"implied_early_pct": 27.9,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.49,
"early": 4.82,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.13,
"implied_delta_pp": 1.45,
"implied_early_pct": 19.68,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.27,
"early": 2.24,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.09,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.62,
"implied_early_pct": 42.71,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.65,
"early": 1.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.62,
"implied_early_pct": 57.29,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.3,
"ev": -0.1485,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.131,
"model_prob_pct": 13.1,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.1
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.9
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.15,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"consensus_odds": 4.49,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0516,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.2,
"text": "+5.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2113,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0516,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.2,
"text": "+5.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3581,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6079,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Emelec",
"sort_key": 10196.44,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.352,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0099,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4688,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.497,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3872,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0109,
"ev": -0.0999,
"implied_prob": 0.5312,
"model_prob": 0.503,
"p_final": 0.5203
},
"p_final": 0.4787,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0259,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0617,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.352,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0099,
"ev": -0.0617,
"implied_prob": 0.4688,
"model_prob": 0.497,
"p_final": 0.4787
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0795,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.0,
"text": "-8.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.006,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.6,
"text": "-0.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.006,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 50.3,
"sort_key": 1798.5,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 49.7
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2927,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0009,
"edge_pp": 0.1,
"market_prob": 0.417,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.42,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2927,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0009,
"ev": -0.0681,
"implied_prob": 0.417,
"model_prob": 0.42,
"p_final": 0.4179
},
"p_final": 0.4179,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0634,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0681,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4024,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0012,
"ev": -0.072,
"implied_prob": 0.583,
"model_prob": 0.58,
"p_final": 0.5818
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.013,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.3,
"text": "-1.3%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0488,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.9,
"text": "-4.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.013,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over_prob": 42.0,
"sort_key": 1796.75,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 58.0,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +31.2%",
"alert_team": "Emelec",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 17.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -17.34,
"hero_label": "Macar\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 21.1,
"market_team": "Macar\u00e1",
"model_prob_pct": 35.8,
"model_team": "Emelec",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0516,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.608,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Emelec at 35.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Emelec as the value side (35.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Emelec",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Emelec \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.49 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +61% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519493 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.49 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +61% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0516,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.49,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2113,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3581,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.22271714922048996,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6079,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -10.4,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6153846153846154,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (17 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 53,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 17.34,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 17.34,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -10.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.15,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.21,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.15 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -10%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 31.2,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +31.2%",
"steam_team": "Emelec",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0516,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.608,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Emelec at 35.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Emelec as the value side (35.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Emelec",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Emelec \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.49 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +61% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519493 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.49 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +61% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0516,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.49,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2113,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3581,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.22271714922048996,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6079,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -10.4,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Macar\u00e1 1.15 xG vs Emelec 1.21 \u2192 Emelec 35.8%",
"Market: Macar\u00e1 ~21.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Emelec odds \u2191 +31.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Emelec, but the market has moved away from Emelec.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -17.34,
"fair_prob": 32.86,
"label": "Macar\u00e1",
"market_prob": 50.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.67,
"fair_prob": 31.34,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.67,
"fair_prob": 35.8,
"label": "Emelec",
"market_prob": 21.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.36,
"fair_prob": 42.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.36,
"fair_prob": 58.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.73,
"fair_prob": 49.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.73,
"fair_prob": 50.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -17.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.86,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Macar\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 50.2,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Emelec"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Macar\u00e1\u0027s win probability at 50.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 17.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 17.34,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Emelec",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 21.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.7,
"model_prob_pct": 35.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 53,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Macar\u00e1 1.15 xG vs Emelec 1.21 \u2192 Emelec 35.8%",
"Market: Macar\u00e1 ~21.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Emelec odds \u2191 +31.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Emelec, but the market has moved away from Emelec.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -17.34,
"hero_label": "Macar\u00e1",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Emelec odds lengthened \u2191 +31.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Emelec has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Macar\u00e1 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Emelec \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.2% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Macar\u00e1 than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Emelec has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Emelec \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.2% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Macar\u00e1 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Emelec has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.2%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 17.34,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Macar\u00e1",
"largest_gap_pp": -17.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Macar\u00e1 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 17.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -17.34,
"edge_pp": -17.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.86,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Macar\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 50.2,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.67,
"edge_pp": 2.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.34,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.67,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 14.67,
"edge_pp": 14.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.8,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Emelec",
"market_prob_pct": 21.13,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Emelec \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.2% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Macar\u00e1 (21.1%).",
"However, Emelec has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +31.2%, 8/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Emelec, Market \u2192 Macar\u00e1, while Emelec odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.91,
"closing_odds": 1.89,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.91,
"entry_odds": 1.89,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +31.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 31.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +29.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 29.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +29.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 29.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "8/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +31.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 31.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 140h 21m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Emelec (31.2%, 8/13) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 31.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.82",
"4.01",
"3.20"
],
"display": "4.44 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 4.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 140h 21m",
"pick_team": "Emelec",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.44"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
4.49,
4.82,
4.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,3.7 37.3,0.0 56.0,6.9",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.82"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/13 sportsbooks on Emelec",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Emelec",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +31.2%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Market moved away from Emelec while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Emelec",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/13",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +31.2%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "Emelec",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_team_name": "Emelec",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 17.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "emelec",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Emelec",
"away_team_id": 1148,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1148.webp",
"away_team_name": "Emelec",
"away_team_public_id": "0Shp5URlSLJGEf",
"away_team_slug": "emelec",
"country_code": "EC",
"country_display_name": "Ecuador",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ec.svg",
"country_id": 46,
"country_name": "Ecuador",
"fixture_id": 1519493,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ecuador",
"home_team_display_name": "Macar\u00e1",
"home_team_id": 1155,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1155.webp",
"home_team_name": "Macar\u00e1",
"home_team_public_id": "1CIdsNeHA2IZf6",
"home_team_slug": "macara",
"ht.home_team_slug": "macara",
"league_country": "Ecuador",
"league_country_display": "Ecuador",
"league_display_name": "Liga Pro Ecuador",
"league_id": 242,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/242.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Pro Ecuador",
"league_public_id": "5o6Mh46noZ9yF5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 20:30:00",
"public_id": "5cMqevGIlOl5vZ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ambato",
"venue_name": "Estadio Bellavista"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.156,
"best_odd": 4.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": 0.0516,
"implied_prob": 0.2113,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2113,
"draw": 0.2867,
"home": 0.502
},
"model_prob": 0.3581,
"p_final": 0.2342
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.288,
"best_odd": 3.31,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0259,
"implied_prob": 0.2867,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2113,
"draw": 0.2867,
"home": 0.502
},
"model_prob": 0.3132,
"p_final": 0.2943
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.444,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.077,
"ev": -0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.502,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2113,
"draw": 0.2867,
"home": 0.502
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.4251
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.49,
"edge": 0.1354,
"ev": 0.608,
"implied_prob": 0.2227,
"model_prob": 0.3581
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.31,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": 0.0367,
"implied_prob": 0.3021,
"model_prob": 0.3132
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": -0.2004,
"ev": -0.3788,
"implied_prob": 0.5291,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3872,
"alpha_yes": 0.352,
"best_no_odd": 1.83,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0273,
"edge_yes": 0.0273,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0795,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0999,
"ev_yes": -0.006,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0617,
"implied_no": 0.5303,
"implied_yes": 0.4697,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3872,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0109,
"ev": -0.0999,
"implied_prob": 0.5312,
"model_prob": 0.503,
"p_final": 0.5203
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.352,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0099,
"ev": -0.0617,
"implied_prob": 0.4688,
"model_prob": 0.497,
"p_final": 0.4787
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.5203,
"p_final_yes": 0.4787,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2927,
"alpha_under": 0.4024,
"best_over_odd": 2.35,
"best_under_odd": 1.64,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.23,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.595,
"edge_over": 0.0036,
"edge_under": -0.0036,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.013,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0681,
"ev_under": -0.0488,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.072,
"implied_over": 0.4164,
"implied_over_mf": 0.417,
"implied_under": 0.5836,
"implied_under_mf": 0.583,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2927,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0009,
"ev": -0.0681,
"implied_prob": 0.417,
"model_prob": 0.42,
"p_final": 0.4179
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4024,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0012,
"ev": -0.072,
"implied_prob": 0.583,
"model_prob": 0.58,
"p_final": 0.5818
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4179,
"p_final_under": 0.5818,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.36,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0516,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.608,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0516,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0516,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.608,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Emelec at 35.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Emelec as the value side (35.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Emelec",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Emelec \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.49 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +61% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519493 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.49 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +61% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0516,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.49,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2113,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3581,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.22271714922048996,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6079,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -10.4,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.497,
"draw_prob": 0.3132,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3581,
"over_prob": 0.42,
"total_xg": 2.36,
"under_prob": 0.58,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.49,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": 0.0516,
"implied_prob": 0.2113,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3581,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Emelec"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.352,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0099,
"market_prob": 0.4688,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.497,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3872,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0109,
"ev": -0.0999,
"implied_prob": 0.5312,
"model_prob": 0.503,
"p_final": 0.5203
},
"p_final": 0.4787,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0617,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.352,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0099,
"ev": -0.0617,
"implied_prob": 0.4688,
"model_prob": 0.497,
"p_final": 0.4787
}
},
"edge": 0.0273,
"ev": -0.006,
"implied_prob": 0.4697,
"model_prob": 0.497,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2927,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0009,
"market_prob": 0.417,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.42,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2927,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0009,
"ev": -0.0681,
"implied_prob": 0.417,
"model_prob": 0.42,
"p_final": 0.4179
},
"p_final": 0.4179,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0681,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4024,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0012,
"ev": -0.072,
"implied_prob": 0.583,
"model_prob": 0.58,
"p_final": 0.5818
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0036,
"ev": -0.013,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.42,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1519493,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0516,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3581,
"draw": 0.3132,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Emelec",
"home": "Macar\u00e1"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.020326,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0516,
"implied_prob": 0.2113,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3581,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Emelec",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0516,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.49,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2113,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3581,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.22271714922048996,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6079,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1519493,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T20:29:06.632498+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Macará & Emelec!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Liga Pro Ecuador — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 74 |
| 2 | Macará | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 51 |
| 3 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 50 |
| 4 | Universidad Católica | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 48 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 10 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 |
| 11 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 33 |
| 14 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfín SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 21 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 73 | 33 | +40 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 29 | 49 | 26 | +23 | 48 |
| 3 | Macará | 30 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 38 |
| 5 | Orense SC | 29 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 33 |
| 6 | Aucas | 30 | 33 | 28 | +5 | 50 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 39 |
| 9 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 44 |
| 10 | LDU Quito | 30 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 46 |
| 11 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 39 |
| 12 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 32 |
| 13 | Emelec | 30 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 36 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 36 |
| 15 | Delfín SC | 30 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 21 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emelec | 30 | 3.0 | 0.8 | +2.2 | 36 |
| 2 | Aucas | 30 | 2.9 | 1.6 | +1.3 | 50 |
| 3 | LDU Quito | 30 | 4.2 | 3.1 | +1.1 | 46 |
| 4 | Macará | 30 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 51 |
| 5 | Universidad Católica | 29 | 2.3 | 1.4 | +0.9 | 48 |
| 6 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 2.6 | 1.9 | +0.7 | 39 |
| 7 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 2.3 | 1.7 | +0.6 | 38 |
| 8 | Delfín SC | 30 | 1.7 | 1.4 | +0.3 | 28 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 39 |
| 10 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 3.4 | 4.1 | -0.7 | 44 |
| 11 | Manta FC | 30 | 0.5 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 21 |
| 12 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 0.6 | 1.7 | -1.1 | 32 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 29 | 0.3 | 1.8 | -1.5 | 33 |
| 14 | Libertad | 30 | 0.3 | 2.0 | -1.7 | 41 |
| 15 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 3.3 | 5.3 | -2.0 | 36 |
| 16 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | — | — | — | 74 |
