Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "7d5d45960bb84186be7116dd67f2358723299a231824120da5436a1eaa398c84",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": 0.3981,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.527,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.473,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3177,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.51,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.15,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.52,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.02,
"home_win_prob": 0.2842,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.396,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.604
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Libertad or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Libertad"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Independiente del Valle",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1101,
"edge_gap": 0.0809,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5085,
"model_prob": 0.3984,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 39.8,
"draw": 31.7,
"home": 28.4
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.87
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.87,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Independiente del Valle Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.97,
"market_odds": 1.87,
"model_odds": 2.51,
"overround": 5.2,
"prob_edge": -13.6,
"value_pct": -25.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 11,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 29,
"away_score_rate": 71.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 9,
"home_played": 28,
"home_score_rate": 63.9,
"no_prob": 52.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 52.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 47.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.25,
"home_expected": 1.02,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Libertad or Draw",
"prob": 60.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Libertad or Independiente del Valle",
"prob": 68.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Independiente del Valle",
"prob": 71.6
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Independiente del Valle",
"pick_prob": 71.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.8,
"draw_pct": 31.8,
"home_pct": 28.4,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Independiente del Valle"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.27,
"away_avg_scored": 2.4,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 39.6,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 60.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.27,
"under_prob": 60.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 18.4,
"implied_prob": 24.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Libertad Win",
"model_prob": 28.4,
"odds": 4.17
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Independiente del Valle",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 50.85,
"draw": 26.34,
"home": 22.8
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 22:59:13",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 22:29:24",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Libertad",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_a",
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.2,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.8,
"gap_pp": 5.61,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 28.41
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.34,
"gap_pp": 5.41,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 31.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.85,
"gap_pp": -11.01,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 39.84
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"gap_pp": -10.4,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 39.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 60.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 4.17,
"early": 4.18,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.8,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.09,
"implied_early_pct": 22.72,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.61,
"early": 3.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.34,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.11,
"implied_early_pct": 26.23,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.87,
"early": 1.86,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.85,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.2,
"implied_early_pct": 51.05,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.92,
"early": 1.92,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.0,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.92,
"early": 1.92,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.7,
"ev": -0.0496,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.2,
"market_prob": 0.1389,
"market_prob_pct": 13.9,
"model_prob": 0.132,
"model_prob_pct": 13.2,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.02,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.197,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"edge": 0.0218,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"market_prob": 0.4933,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.604,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.197,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": -0.0218,
"ev": -0.1078,
"implied_prob": 0.5067,
"model_prob": 0.396,
"p_final": 0.4849
},
"p_final": 0.5151,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1416,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0264,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.197,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0264,
"implied_prob": 0.4933,
"model_prob": 0.604,
"p_final": 0.5151
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2397,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.0,
"text": "-24.0%"
},
"ev_under": 0.208,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 20.8,
"text": "+20.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.208,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over_prob": 39.6,
"sort_key": 10337.2,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 60.4,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2164,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.955,
"edge": 0.0121,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.4709,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.527,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2164,
"best_odd": 1.955,
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.0556,
"implied_prob": 0.4709,
"model_prob": 0.527,
"p_final": 0.483
},
"p_final": 0.483,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0303,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0556,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.238,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0134,
"ev": -0.1026,
"implied_prob": 0.5291,
"model_prob": 0.473,
"p_final": 0.5157
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.054,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.4,
"text": "+5.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1486,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.9,
"text": "-14.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.054,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 52.7,
"sort_key": 10048.6,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 47.3
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Independiente del Valle, but the model still strongly favours Independiente del Valle.",
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1522,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.2,
"text": "-15.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5085,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0047,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.5,
"text": "+0.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3984,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.255,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Independiente del Valle",
"sort_key": 5203.76,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"alert_team": "Independiente del Valle",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.04,
"hero_label": "Independiente del Valle",
"market_prob_pct": 50.9,
"market_team": "Independiente del Valle",
"model_prob_pct": 39.8,
"model_team": "Independiente del Valle",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente del Valle, but the model still strongly favours Independiente del Valle."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente del Valle, but the model still strongly favours Independiente del Valle."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.208,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.208,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Independiente del Valle at 39.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Independiente del Valle as the value side (39.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Independiente del Valle, but the model still strongly favours Independiente del Valle.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Independiente del Valle",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Independiente del Valle, but the model still strongly favours Independiente del Valle.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Independiente del Valle, but the model still strongly favours Independiente del Valle.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1522,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5085,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3984,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.53475935828877,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.255,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.23
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.04,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.04,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.02,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.25,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.02 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"steam_team": "Independiente del Valle",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Independiente del Valle, but the model still strongly favours Independiente del Valle.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente del Valle, but the model still strongly favours Independiente del Valle."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente del Valle, but the model still strongly favours Independiente del Valle."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.208,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.208,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Independiente del Valle at 39.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Independiente del Valle as the value side (39.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Independiente del Valle, but the model still strongly favours Independiente del Valle.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Independiente del Valle",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Independiente del Valle, but the model still strongly favours Independiente del Valle.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Independiente del Valle, but the model still strongly favours Independiente del Valle.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1522,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5085,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3984,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.53475935828877,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.255,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.23
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Independiente del Valle, but the model still strongly favours Independiente del Valle.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Libertad 1.02 xG vs Independiente del Valle 1.25 \u2192 Independiente del Valle 39.8%",
"Market: Independiente del Valle ~50.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Independiente del Valle odds \u2191 +2.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Independiente del Valle, but the market has moved away from Independiente del Valle.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.62,
"fair_prob": 28.42,
"label": "Libertad",
"market_prob": 22.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.43,
"fair_prob": 31.77,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.04,
"fair_prob": 39.81,
"label": "Independiente del Valle",
"market_prob": 50.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.2,
"fair_prob": 39.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 50.8,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.2,
"fair_prob": 60.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 49.2,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.75,
"fair_prob": 47.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 53.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.75,
"fair_prob": 52.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 46.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.81,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Independiente del Valle",
"market_prob_pct": 50.85,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Independiente del Valle"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Independiente del Valle\u0027s win probability at 50.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.8%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.04,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Independiente del Valle",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 50.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.1,
"model_prob_pct": 39.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente del Valle, but the model still strongly favours Independiente del Valle. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Libertad 1.02 xG vs Independiente del Valle 1.25 \u2192 Independiente del Valle 39.8%",
"Market: Independiente del Valle ~50.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Independiente del Valle odds \u2191 +2.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Independiente del Valle, but the market has moved away from Independiente del Valle.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.04,
"hero_label": "Independiente del Valle",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Independiente del Valle odds lengthened \u2191 +2.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Independiente del Valle than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Independiente del Valle.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Independiente del Valle than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Independiente del Valle."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Independiente del Valle more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Independiente del Valle (\u2191 +2.8%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/12) supports the current market view on Independiente del Valle."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.04,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.0 pp (at 39.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.0,
"max_prob_pct": 39.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Independiente del Valle",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Independiente del Valle higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.62,
"edge_pp": 5.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Libertad",
"market_prob_pct": 22.8,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.43,
"edge_pp": 5.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.34,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -11.04,
"edge_pp": -11.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.81,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Independiente del Valle",
"market_prob_pct": 50.85,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Independiente del Valle.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Independiente del Valle (50.9%).",
"Independiente del Valle odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.8%, 9/12) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Independiente del Valle, Market \u2192 Independiente del Valle, while Independiente del Valle odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 53.48,
"closing_odds": 1.87,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 53.48,
"entry_odds": 1.87,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "9/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.85,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 158h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Market fading Independiente del Valle (2.8%) \u2014 line drifting longer vs. open (9/12).",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.87",
"1.83",
"1.80"
],
"display": "1.98 \u2192 1.62 \u2192 1.85",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 158h 59m",
"pick_team": "Independiente del Valle",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.98"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.85"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.8,
1.87,
1.86,
1.85
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,2.6 56.0,5.1",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.87"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.85"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.8,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Efficient",
"phase_tip": "Stable consensus \u2014 limited edge from further drift.",
"pick_team": "Independiente del Valle",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.85,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"summary": "Market moved away from Independiente del Valle while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Independiente del Valle",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_fading",
"signal_label": "Weakening",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/12",
"current_odds": 1.85,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"pick_team": "Independiente del Valle",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_team_name": "Independiente del Valle",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "independiente-del-valle",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Independiente del Valle",
"away_team_id": 1153,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1153.webp",
"away_team_name": "Independiente del Valle",
"away_team_public_id": "1SNbaGxREAGU9B",
"away_team_slug": "independiente-del-valle",
"country_code": "EC",
"country_display_name": "Ecuador",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ec.svg",
"country_id": 46,
"country_name": "Ecuador",
"fixture_id": 1519492,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ecuador",
"home_team_display_name": "Libertad",
"home_team_id": 18762,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18762.webp",
"home_team_name": "Libertad",
"home_team_public_id": "1F8jq3a76AvSf3",
"home_team_slug": "libertad",
"ht.home_team_slug": "libertad",
"league_country": "Ecuador",
"league_country_display": "Ecuador",
"league_display_name": "Liga Pro Ecuador",
"league_id": 242,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/242.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Pro Ecuador",
"league_public_id": "5o6Mh46noZ9yF5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 23:00:00",
"public_id": "3AvD2RJZvAZ8E1",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Loja",
"venue_name": "Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5009,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0552,
"ev": -0.1522,
"implied_prob": 0.5085,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5085,
"draw": 0.2634,
"home": 0.228
},
"model_prob": 0.3984,
"p_final": 0.4534
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2757,
"best_odd": 3.61,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": 0.0047,
"implied_prob": 0.2634,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5085,
"draw": 0.2634,
"home": 0.228
},
"model_prob": 0.3175,
"p_final": 0.2783
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1832,
"best_odd": 4.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0062,
"implied_prob": 0.228,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5085,
"draw": 0.2634,
"home": 0.228
},
"model_prob": 0.2841,
"p_final": 0.2383
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": -0.1363,
"ev": -0.2549,
"implied_prob": 0.5348,
"model_prob": 0.3984
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.61,
"edge": 0.0405,
"ev": 0.1461,
"implied_prob": 0.277,
"model_prob": 0.3175
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.17,
"edge": 0.0443,
"ev": 0.1847,
"implied_prob": 0.2398,
"model_prob": 0.2841
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2164,
"alpha_yes": 0.238,
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0575,
"edge_yes": -0.0575,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.054,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0556,
"ev_yes": -0.1486,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1026,
"implied_no": 0.4695,
"implied_yes": 0.5305,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2164,
"best_odd": 1.955,
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.0556,
"implied_prob": 0.4709,
"model_prob": 0.527,
"p_final": 0.483
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.238,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0134,
"ev": -0.1026,
"implied_prob": 0.5291,
"model_prob": 0.473,
"p_final": 0.5157
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.483,
"p_final_yes": 0.5157,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.197,
"alpha_under": 0.197,
"best_over_odd": 1.92,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.84,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.89,
"edge_over": -0.112,
"edge_under": 0.112,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2397,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1078,
"ev_under": 0.208,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0264,
"implied_over": 0.508,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5067,
"implied_under": 0.492,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4933,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.197,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": -0.0218,
"ev": -0.1078,
"implied_prob": 0.5067,
"model_prob": 0.396,
"p_final": 0.4849
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.197,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0264,
"implied_prob": 0.4933,
"model_prob": 0.604,
"p_final": 0.5151
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4849,
"p_final_under": 0.5151,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.27,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.208,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.208,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.208,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente del Valle, but the model still strongly favours Independiente del Valle."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.208,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.208,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Independiente del Valle at 39.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Independiente del Valle as the value side (39.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Independiente del Valle, but the model still strongly favours Independiente del Valle.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Independiente del Valle",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Independiente del Valle, but the model still strongly favours Independiente del Valle.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Independiente del Valle, but the model still strongly favours Independiente del Valle.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1522,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5085,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3984,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.53475935828877,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.255,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.23
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.473,
"draw_prob": 0.3175,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3984,
"over_prob": 0.396,
"total_xg": 2.27,
"under_prob": 0.604,
"xg_diff": 0.23
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0552,
"ev": -0.1522,
"implied_prob": 0.5085,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3984,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Independiente del Valle"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2164,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.955,
"edge": 0.0121,
"market_prob": 0.4709,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.527,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2164,
"best_odd": 1.955,
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.0556,
"implied_prob": 0.4709,
"model_prob": 0.527,
"p_final": 0.483
},
"p_final": 0.483,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0556,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.238,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0134,
"ev": -0.1026,
"implied_prob": 0.5291,
"model_prob": 0.473,
"p_final": 0.5157
}
},
"edge": 0.0575,
"ev": 0.054,
"implied_prob": 0.4695,
"model_prob": 0.527,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.197,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"edge": 0.0218,
"market_prob": 0.4933,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.604,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.197,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": -0.0218,
"ev": -0.1078,
"implied_prob": 0.5067,
"model_prob": 0.396,
"p_final": 0.4849
},
"p_final": 0.5151,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0264,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.197,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0264,
"implied_prob": 0.4933,
"model_prob": 0.604,
"p_final": 0.5151
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.112,
"ev": 0.208,
"implied_prob": 0.492,
"model_prob": 0.604,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1519492,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.208,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3984,
"draw": 0.3175,
"home": 0.2841
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Independiente del Valle",
"home": "Libertad"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.087942,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.208,
"implied_prob": 0.492,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.604,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1522,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5085,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3984,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.53475935828877,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.255,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1519492,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T22:59:15.086290+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Libertad & Independiente del Valle!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Liga Pro Ecuador — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 3 | Macará | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 33 |
| 14 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfín SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 21 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 73 | 33 | +40 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 51 | 27 | +24 | 51 |
| 3 | Macará | 30 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 | Orense SC | 30 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 33 |
| 5 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 38 |
| 6 | Aucas | 30 | 33 | 28 | +5 | 50 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 39 |
| 9 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 44 |
| 10 | LDU Quito | 30 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 46 |
| 11 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 39 |
| 12 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 32 |
| 13 | Emelec | 30 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 39 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 36 |
| 15 | Delfín SC | 30 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 21 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emelec | 30 | 3.0 | 0.8 | +2.2 | 39 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 3.5 | 1.6 | +1.9 | 51 |
| 3 | Aucas | 30 | 2.9 | 1.6 | +1.3 | 50 |
| 4 | LDU Quito | 30 | 4.2 | 3.1 | +1.1 | 46 |
| 5 | Macará | 30 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 51 |
| 6 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 2.6 | 1.9 | +0.7 | 39 |
| 7 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 2.3 | 1.7 | +0.6 | 38 |
| 8 | Delfín SC | 30 | 1.7 | 1.4 | +0.3 | 28 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 39 |
| 10 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 3.4 | 4.1 | -0.7 | 44 |
| 11 | Manta FC | 30 | 0.5 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 21 |
| 12 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 0.6 | 1.7 | -1.1 | 32 |
| 13 | Libertad | 30 | 0.3 | 2.0 | -1.7 | 41 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 3.3 | 5.3 | -2.0 | 36 |
| 15 | Orense SC | 30 | 0.6 | 2.9 | -2.3 | 33 |
| 16 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | — | — | — | 74 |