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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Universidad Católica Universidad Católica ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 2-1, 3-1, 2-0, 1-1, 3-0 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.93
AI Fair Odds
1.51
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Universidad Católica win · Universidad Católica 2–1 Barcelona SC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 66.2%
- Historical Bucket: 65–70% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "a129d4a53579c7484a881b5acd251a4eb1bcdc8053786a031307137b109515a0",
"decision_algo_version": "2.4.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.18,
"away_win_prob": 0.147,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.352,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.649,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.1904,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 6.8,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 5.25,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.51,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.56,
"home_win_prob": 0.6625,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.721,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.279
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Universidad Cat\u00f3lica or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica"
},
"away_xg": 1.18,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"confidence": 66.2,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"edge": 0.17,
"edge_gap": 0.4719,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4924,
"model_prob": 0.6624,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 14.7,
"draw": 19.1,
"home": 66.2
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.93
}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.93,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.03,
"market_odds": 1.93,
"model_odds": 1.51,
"overround": 5.2,
"prob_edge": 14.4,
"value_pct": 27.8,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 9,
"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 20,
"away_score_rate": 69.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 20,
"home_score_rate": 92.3,
"no_prob": 35.1,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 64.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 64.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.18,
"home_expected": 2.56,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 6.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica or Draw",
"prob": 85.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica or Barcelona SC",
"prob": 80.9
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Barcelona SC",
"prob": 33.7
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica or Draw",
"pick_prob": 85.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 14.7,
"draw_pct": 19.0,
"home_pct": 66.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 3.74,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 72.1,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 72.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.74,
"under_prob": 27.9
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 27.8,
"implied_prob": 51.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica Win",
"model_prob": 66.2,
"odds": 1.93
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Barcelona SC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 23.76,
"draw": 27.0,
"home": 49.24
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-21 23:59:01",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-21 23:29:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.24,
"gap_pp": 17.0,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 66.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.0,
"gap_pp": -7.95,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 19.05
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.76,
"gap_pp": -9.05,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 14.71
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.18,
"gap_pp": 23.92,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 72.1
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.82,
"gap_pp": -23.92,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 27.9
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.93,
"early": 1.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.24,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.24,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.52,
"early": 3.52,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.0,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.0,
"early": 4.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.76,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.99,
"early": 1.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.18,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.18,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.85,
"early": 1.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.82,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 23.9,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.2
}
},
"home_xg": 2.56,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Barcelona SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.097,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.7,
"text": "+9.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4924,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.097,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.7,
"text": "+9.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.6624,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2784,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"sort_key": 10237.3,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 72.1,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 27.9,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 35.1,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 64.8
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 807.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -10.7%",
"alert_team": "Barcelona SC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 17.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 17.01,
"hero_label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"market_prob_pct": 49.2,
"market_team": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"model_prob_pct": 66.2,
"model_team": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 17.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Barcelona SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 17.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Barcelona SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.097,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2784,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Universidad Cat\u00f3lica at 66.2% vs market 49.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Universidad Cat\u00f3lica as the stronger side (66.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Barcelona SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Universidad Cat\u00f3lica \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519423 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 \u274c (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Barcelona SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 39,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 90% vs league baseline"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Barcelona SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"tier": "observe",
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.097,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4924,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6624,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2784,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 89.6,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 90% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.15384615384615385,
"evidence": {
"score": 82,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (17 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (90%+)",
"tone": "negative"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.5,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 39,
"stars": 1,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 17.01,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 17.01,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 90.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.56,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.56,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.56 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +90%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -10.7%",
"steam_team": "Barcelona SC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 5,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 5,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Barcelona SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 17.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Barcelona SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 17.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Barcelona SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.097,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2784,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Universidad Cat\u00f3lica at 66.2% vs market 49.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Universidad Cat\u00f3lica as the stronger side (66.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Barcelona SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Universidad Cat\u00f3lica \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519423 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 \u274c (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Barcelona SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 39,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 90% vs league baseline"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Barcelona SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"tier": "observe",
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.097,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4924,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6624,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2784,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 89.6,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 90% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Barcelona SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Universidad Cat\u00f3lica 2.56 xG vs Barcelona SC 1.18 \u2192 Universidad Cat\u00f3lica 66.2%",
"Market: Universidad Cat\u00f3lica ~49.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Barcelona SC \u2193 -10.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but sharp money moved toward Barcelona SC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 17.01,
"fair_prob": 66.25,
"label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"market_prob": 49.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.96,
"fair_prob": 19.04,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.06,
"fair_prob": 14.7,
"label": "Barcelona SC",
"market_prob": 23.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 72.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 27.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 64.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 35.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 17.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 66.25,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"market_prob_pct": 49.24,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Barcelona SC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Universidad Cat\u00f3lica\u0027s win probability at 66.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 49.2%, a difference of 17.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 17.01,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+17.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 17.0,
"model_prob_pct": 66.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+17.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 17.0,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 39,
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Barcelona SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 5,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 5,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Universidad Cat\u00f3lica 2.56 xG vs Barcelona SC 1.18 \u2192 Universidad Cat\u00f3lica 66.2%",
"Market: Universidad Cat\u00f3lica ~49.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Barcelona SC \u2193 -10.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but sharp money moved toward Barcelona SC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 17.01,
"hero_label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Barcelona SC odds shortened \u2193 -10.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Barcelona SC, with odds shortening by 10.7%. Confirmation remains limited (2/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"note": "Buying interest on Barcelona SC \u2014 odds shortened by 10.7%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Barcelona SC, with odds shortening by 10.7%. Confirmation remains limited (2/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Buying interest on Barcelona SC \u2014 odds shortened by 10.7%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Universidad Cat\u00f3lica more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Barcelona SC has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 10.7%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 17.01,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 47.2 pp (at 66.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 47.2,
"max_prob_pct": 66.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"largest_gap_pp": 17.0,
"lead": "The model rates Universidad Cat\u00f3lica considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 17.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 17.01,
"edge_pp": 17.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 66.25,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"market_prob_pct": 49.24,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.96,
"edge_pp": -7.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 19.04,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.0,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.06,
"edge_pp": -9.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 14.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Barcelona SC",
"market_prob_pct": 23.76,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Barcelona SC \u2014 odds shortened by 10.7%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Universidad Cat\u00f3lica (49.2%).",
"Barcelona SC has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -10.7%, 2/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, Market \u2192 Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, Recent sharp money \u2192 Barcelona SC.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.81,
"closing_odds": 1.93,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.81,
"entry_odds": 1.93,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.7
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "2/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.75,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 31h 55m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Barcelona SC (10.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.20",
"3.98",
"3.75"
],
"display": "4.20 \u2192 2.95 \u2192 3.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 31h 55m",
"pick_team": "Barcelona SC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.95"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.2,
4.0,
3.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,8.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.2,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Barcelona SC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.75,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.7%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"summary": "Market moved toward Barcelona SC while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Barcelona SC",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/13",
"current_odds": 3.75,
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.7%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"pick_team": "Barcelona SC",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_team_name": "Barcelona SC",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 17.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Barcelona SC",
"away_team_id": 1152,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1152.webp",
"away_team_name": "Barcelona SC",
"away_team_slug": "barcelona-sc",
"country_code": "EC",
"country_display_name": "Ecuador",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ec.svg",
"country_id": 46,
"country_name": "Ecuador",
"fixture_id": 1519423,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ecuador",
"home_team_display_name": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"home_team_id": 1157,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1157.webp",
"home_team_name": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"home_team_slug": "universidad-catolica",
"league_country": "Ecuador",
"league_country_display": "Ecuador",
"league_display_name": "Ecuador Liga Pro Ecuador",
"league_id": 242,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/242.webp",
"league_name": "Ecuador Liga Pro Ecuador",
"league_name_canonical": "Liga Pro Ecuador",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-22 00:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Quito",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1728,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.1122,
"implied_prob": 0.2376,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2376,
"draw": 0.27,
"home": 0.4924
},
"model_prob": 0.1471,
"p_final": 0.2219
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2642,
"best_odd": 3.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.1236,
"implied_prob": 0.27,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2376,
"draw": 0.27,
"home": 0.4924
},
"model_prob": 0.1905,
"p_final": 0.249
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.447,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.076,
"ev": 0.097,
"implied_prob": 0.4924,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2376,
"draw": 0.27,
"home": 0.4924
},
"model_prob": 0.6624,
"p_final": 0.5684
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.0,
"edge": -0.1029,
"ev": -0.4116,
"implied_prob": 0.25,
"model_prob": 0.1471
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.52,
"edge": -0.0936,
"ev": -0.3294,
"implied_prob": 0.2841,
"model_prob": 0.1905
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.1443,
"ev": 0.2784,
"implied_prob": 0.5181,
"model_prob": 0.6624
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.74,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.4.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.097,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2784,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.097,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 90% vs league baseline"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 90% vs league baseline"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.1
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 17.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Barcelona SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.097,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2784,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Universidad Cat\u00f3lica at 66.2% vs market 49.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Universidad Cat\u00f3lica as the stronger side (66.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Barcelona SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Universidad Cat\u00f3lica \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519423 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 \u274c (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Barcelona SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 39,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 90% vs league baseline"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Barcelona SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"tier": "observe",
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.097,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4924,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6624,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2784,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 89.6,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 90% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.648,
"draw_prob": 0.1905,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6624,
"over_prob": 0.721,
"total_xg": 3.74,
"under_prob": 0.279,
"xg_diff": 1.38
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.076,
"ev": 0.097,
"implied_prob": 0.4924,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6624,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.648,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.721,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1519423,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.097,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1471,
"draw": 0.1905,
"home": 0.6624
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Barcelona SC",
"home": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.077103,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.097,
"implied_prob": 0.4924,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6624,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.097,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4924,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6624,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2784,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1519423,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-21T23:59:06.470166+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Universidad Católica & Barcelona SC!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Liga Pro Ecuador — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 3 | Macará | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 33 |
| 14 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfín SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 21 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 73 | 33 | +40 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 51 | 27 | +24 | 51 |
| 3 | Macará | 30 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 | Orense SC | 30 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 33 |
| 5 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 38 |
| 6 | Aucas | 30 | 33 | 28 | +5 | 50 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 39 |
| 9 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 44 |
| 10 | LDU Quito | 30 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 46 |
| 11 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 39 |
| 12 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 32 |
| 13 | Emelec | 30 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 39 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 36 |
| 15 | Delfín SC | 30 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 21 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emelec | 30 | 3.0 | 0.8 | +2.2 | 39 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 3.5 | 1.6 | +1.9 | 51 |
| 3 | Aucas | 30 | 2.9 | 1.6 | +1.3 | 50 |
| 4 | LDU Quito | 30 | 4.2 | 3.1 | +1.1 | 46 |
| 5 | Macará | 30 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 51 |
| 6 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 2.6 | 1.9 | +0.7 | 39 |
| 7 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 2.3 | 1.7 | +0.6 | 38 |
| 8 | Delfín SC | 30 | 1.7 | 1.4 | +0.3 | 28 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 39 |
| 10 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 3.4 | 4.1 | -0.7 | 44 |
| 11 | Manta FC | 30 | 0.5 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 21 |
| 12 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 0.6 | 1.7 | -1.1 | 32 |
| 13 | Libertad | 30 | 0.3 | 2.0 | -1.7 | 41 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 3.3 | 5.3 | -2.0 | 36 |
| 15 | Orense SC | 30 | 0.6 | 2.9 | -2.3 | 33 |
| 16 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | — | — | — | 74 |
