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Throttur Reykjavik vs HK Kopavogur Statistics & Analysis

Jun 12, 2026 - 19:15
2 1.30
0 1.30
xG Accuracy: 58%
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay

Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian

Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.

  • Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
  • Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
  • Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
  • 1X2 Throttur Reykjavik Throttur Reykjavik ✔ Chính xác
  • Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Không đúng

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 20:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1759318

Closing Odds 1.99
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Throttur Reykjavik win · Throttur Reykjavik 2–0 HK Kopavogur
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Thông tin thị trường

Đọc bổ sung sau lựa chọn chính: feed đóng kèo ưu tiên đã thay đổi so với mô hình thế nào.

Tóm tắt thị trường

Thị trường khá ổn định trước giờ bóng lăn. Không thấy dịch chuyển implied đáng kể giữa PRE30 và PRE1 trên snapshot ưu tiên.

Dù biến động muộn hạn chế, mô hình vẫn định giá Vẽ tranh (1X2),HK Kopavogur (1X2) cao hơn rõ rệt so với implied từ các snapshot đóng kèo — đây là bức tranh tĩnh «mô hình so với giá», không phải câu chuyện đuổi dòng muộn.

Mô hình vẫn cao hơn implied đóng kèo ở Vẽ tranh (1X2) khoảng 6.1 điểm phần trăm — tín hiệu lệch giá rõ nhất trên trang này.

Mô hình so với xác suất ngầm lúc đóng kèo

Thị trường Mô hình % Ngầm đóng kèo % Chênh (pp)
Throttur Reykjavik (1X2) 35.2 46.3 -11.1
Vẽ tranh (1X2) 29.6 23.6 +6.1
HK Kopavogur (1X2) 35.2 30.1 +5.1
Ý nghĩa đơn giản

Nói dễ hiểu: mô hình khoảng 29.6% cho Vẽ tranh (1X2), trong khi snapshot đóng kèo ngầm khoảng 23.6%. Chênh lệch — khoảng 6.1 điểm phần trăm — là khoảng cách mô hình–thị trường lớn nhất được nhấn mạnh trên trang này.

Giải thích nhanh: «ngầm đóng kèo» là xác suất suy ra từ kèo chụp cuối (sau khi bỏ vig đơn giản). «Chênh (pp)» = % mô hình trừ % ngầm đó, tính theo điểm phần trăm (pp).

Biến động kèo trước giờ bóng lăn

Một nhà cái ưu tiên mỗi snapshot (không phải toàn thị trường). Đường dẫn chụp: PRE30 → PRE1 · Nhà cái: Pinnacle

Trong ngoặc trên cột: Closing = snapshot đầu tiên khả dụng theo PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early = snapshot đầu tiên trong PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 khác Closing.

Kèo chi tiết được gấp bên dưới — biến động implied (đã bỏ vig) không đáng kể.

Xem bảng đầy đủ từng dòng
Thị trường Sớm (PRE30) Sát giờ (PRE1) Δ ngầm (pp)
Throttur Reykjavik (1X2) 1.99 1.99 0.0
Vẽ tranh (1X2) 3.91 3.91 0.0
HK Kopavogur (1X2) 3.06 3.06 0.0

Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.

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        "alert_breadth_note": "12/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2193 -21.1%",
        "alert_team": "HK Kopavogur",
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        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
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          "outcome": "away"
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          "outcome": "over"
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          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
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          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 67.78,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 13.28,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 32.22,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -11.14,
        "fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Throttur Reykjavik",
        "market_prob_pct": 46.31,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "HK Kopavogur"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 11.14,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Throttur Reykjavik",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 46.3,
          "model_prob_pct": 35.2,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Both lean Throttur Reykjavik, but the market prices them higher (46.3% vs model 35.2%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -11.14,
        "hero_label": "Throttur Reykjavik",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "HK Kopavogur odds shortened \u2193 -21.1%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on HK Kopavogur, with odds shortening by 21.1%.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Throttur Reykjavik than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "Buying interest on HK Kopavogur \u2014 odds shortened by 21.1%.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about Throttur Reykjavik than the current fair estimate.",
            "However, recent buying interest has been on HK Kopavogur, with odds shortening by 21.1%.",
            "Buying interest on HK Kopavogur \u2014 odds shortened by 21.1%."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors Throttur Reykjavik more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, HK Kopavogur has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 21.1%.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (12/13) supports the current market view on HK Kopavogur."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 11.14,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
          "max_prob_pct": 35.2,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -11.14,
            "fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Throttur Reykjavik",
            "market_prob_pct": 46.31,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 6.08,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 23.57,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 5.05,
            "fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "HK Kopavogur",
            "market_prob_pct": 30.12,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Buying interest on HK Kopavogur \u2014 odds shortened by 21.1%.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Throttur Reykjavik (46.3%).",
          "However, HK Kopavogur has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -21.1%, 12/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Throttur Reykjavik, Market \u2192 Throttur Reykjavik, Recent sharp money \u2192 HK Kopavogur.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 50.25,
        "closing_odds": 1.99,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 50.25,
        "entry_odds": 1.99,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 12,
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "12/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.0,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -21.1%",
        "move_pct_abs": 21.1,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "12/13 books synchronized on HK Kopavogur (21.1% steam, score 97) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
          "Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.90 \u2192 2.70 \u2192 3.00",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
          "pick_team": "HK Kopavogur",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.90"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.70"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.00"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,16.6 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "down",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.8,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: HK Kopavogur \u2193 -21.1% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "HK Kopavogur",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: HK Kopavogur \u2193 -21.1% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "steam",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
        "signal_key": "strong_steam",
        "signal_label": "Strong steam",
        "steam_score": 97,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "12/13",
        "current_odds": 3.0,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -21.1%",
        "open_odds": 3.8,
        "pick_team": "HK Kopavogur",
        "steam_score": 97,
        "steam_team_name": "HK Kopavogur",
        "steam_tier": "A+"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 11.1,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 2113,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2113.webp",
      "away_team_name": "HK Kopavogur",
      "country_code": "IS",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/is.svg",
      "country_name": "Iceland",
      "fixture_id": 1514204,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Iceland",
      "home_team_id": 829,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/829.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Throttur Reykjavik",
      "league_country": "Iceland",
      "league_id": 165,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/165.webp",
      "league_name": "1. Deild Iceland",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-12 19:15:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2772,
            "best_odd": 3.06,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.014,
            "ev": -0.0355,
            "implied_prob": 0.3012,
            "model_prob": 0.3518,
            "p_final": 0.3152
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2727,
            "best_odd": 3.91,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0166,
            "ev": -0.0136,
            "implied_prob": 0.2357,
            "model_prob": 0.2965,
            "p_final": 0.2523
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4998,
            "best_odd": 1.99,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0556,
            "ev": -0.1891,
            "implied_prob": 0.4631,
            "model_prob": 0.3518,
            "p_final": 0.4075
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 3.1,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.4,
          "edge_no": 0.1328,
          "edge_yes": -0.1328,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.4105,
          "ev_yes": -0.237,
          "implied_no": 0.3222,
          "implied_yes": 0.6778,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.36,
          "best_under_odd": 3.0,
          "edge_over": -0.1946,
          "edge_under": 0.1946,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.3445,
          "ev_under": 0.554,
          "implied_over": 0.6766,
          "implied_under": 0.3234,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.554,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.2965,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.0
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0556,
          "ev": -0.1891,
          "implied_prob": 0.4631,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.3518,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Throttur Reykjavik"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1328,
          "ev": 0.4105,
          "implied_prob": 0.3222,
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1946,
          "ev": 0.554,
          "implied_prob": 0.3234,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1514204,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.554,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3518,
        "draw": 0.2965,
        "home": 0.3518
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.4105,
        "implied_prob": 0.3222,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.455,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.4105,
          "implied_prob": 0.3222,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "no",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "HK Kopavogur",
        "home": "Throttur Reykjavik"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.20088,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.554,
        "implied_prob": 0.3234,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1514204,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T19:14:05.246626+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Throttur Reykjavik & HK Kopavogur!

Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.

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Quay lại Thống kê
1. Deild Iceland 1. Deild Iceland — Bảng xếp hạng
# Đội Tr T H B Đ
1 Afturelding 22 14 3 5 45
2 Throttur Reykjavik 22 13 4 5 43
3 Fylkir 22 13 1 8 40
4 HK Kopavogur 22 12 2 8 38
5 Njardvik 22 12 2 8 38
6 Leiknir R. 22 8 4 10 28
7 IR Reykjavik 22 8 4 10 28
8 Grotta 22 8 3 11 27
9 Vestri 22 8 3 11 27
10 Völsungur 22 7 5 10 26
11 Grindavik 22 5 10 7 25
12 Ægir 22 2 3 17 9
# Đội Tr BT BB +/- Đ
1 Afturelding 22 65 33 +32 45
2 HK Kopavogur 22 52 40 +12 38
3 Throttur Reykjavik 22 50 25 +25 43
4 Fylkir 22 49 36 +13 40
5 IR Reykjavik 22 40 46 -6 28
6 Njardvik 22 38 29 +9 38
7 Grotta 22 36 43 -7 27
8 Leiknir R. 22 34 33 +1 28
9 Völsungur 22 32 44 -12 26
10 Vestri 22 30 43 -13 27
11 Grindavik 22 25 35 -10 25
12 Ægir 22 25 69 -44 9