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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 2-3 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.52
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Flora Tallinn win · Nõmme United 2–3 Flora Tallinn
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.508,
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"btts_no_prob": 0.484,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.516,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2788,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 1.97,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.59,
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"fair_odds_home": 4.69,
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"home_predicted_xg": 0.98,
"home_win_prob": 0.2133,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Flora Tallinn",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Flora Tallinn"
},
"away_xg": 1.62,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Flora Tallinn",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.1015,
"edge_gap": 0.2292,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.6094,
"model_prob": 0.5079,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 27.9,
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},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.52
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.52,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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"label": "Away",
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"overround": 8.0,
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"value_pct": -22.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
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},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 26,
"away_score_rate": 80.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 26,
"home_score_rate": 62.5,
"no_prob": 48.4,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 51.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 51.6
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.62,
"home_expected": 0.98,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.0
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
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{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
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{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "N\u00f5mme United or Draw",
"prob": 49.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "N\u00f5mme United or Flora Tallinn",
"prob": 72.1
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Flora Tallinn",
"prob": 78.7
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Flora Tallinn",
"pick_prob": 78.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 50.8,
"draw_pct": 27.9,
"home_pct": 21.3,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Flora Tallinn"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 27.5,
"implied_prob": 21.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 27.9,
"odds": 4.57
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Flora Tallinn",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 60.94,
"draw": 20.27,
"home": 18.79
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 13:56:16",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 13:32:21",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "N\u00f5mme United",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 18.79,
"gap_pp": 2.55,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 21.34
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 20.27,
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 27.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.94,
"gap_pp": -10.15,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 50.79
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 67.22,
"gap_pp": -19.02,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.78,
"gap_pp": 19.02,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
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"closing": 4.93,
"early": 4.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 18.79,
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{
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"closing": 1.52,
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{
"closing": 1.39,
"early": 1.39,
"implied_closing_pct": 67.22,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 67.22,
"kind": "ou_o"
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{
"closing": 2.85,
"early": 2.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.78,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 19.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": 0.44,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "0-1",
"market_odds": 12.0,
"market_prob": 0.0833,
"market_prob_pct": 8.3,
"model_prob": 0.12,
"model_prob_pct": 12.0,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
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"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.0
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.0
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.8
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.98,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.015,
"edge": 0.0175,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.2988,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1661,
"best_odd": 1.285,
"edge": -0.0364,
"ev": -0.1458,
"implied_prob": 0.7012,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6648
},
"p_final": 0.3164,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.9,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0461,
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"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.015,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0461,
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"model_prob": 0.518,
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"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3252,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -32.5,
"text": "-32.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.7094,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 70.9,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.7094,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10788.46,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1411,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0203,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.3399,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.484,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1411,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0203,
"ev": -0.0275,
"implied_prob": 0.3399,
"model_prob": 0.484,
"p_final": 0.3602
},
"p_final": 0.3602,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3068,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0275,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.194,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.028,
"ev": -0.1213,
"implied_prob": 0.6601,
"model_prob": 0.516,
"p_final": 0.6322
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4036,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 40.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.226,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.6,
"text": "-22.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.4036,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 48.4,
"sort_key": 10363.24,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 51.6
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.52,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1522,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.2,
"text": "-15.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0121,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.2,
"text": "-1.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5079,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.228,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Flora Tallinn",
"sort_key": 1796.975,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 12.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"alert_team": "N\u00f5mme United",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.14,
"hero_label": "Flora Tallinn",
"market_prob_pct": 60.9,
"market_team": "Flora Tallinn",
"model_prob_pct": 50.8,
"model_team": "Flora Tallinn",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flora Tallinn)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flora Tallinn)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Flora Tallinn at 50.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 60.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Flora Tallinn as the value side (50.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Flora Tallinn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +70.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +70.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +70.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+70.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flora Tallinn).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1522,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5079,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6578947368421053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.228,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 20.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.64"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.64
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "5/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.45454545454545453,
"evidence": {
"score": 76,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.14,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.14,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.62,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 20.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.98,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.62,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.98 \u00b7 Away xG 1.62 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +20%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"steam_team": "N\u00f5mme United",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flora Tallinn)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flora Tallinn)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Flora Tallinn at 50.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 60.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Flora Tallinn as the value side (50.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Flora Tallinn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +70.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +70.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +70.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+70.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flora Tallinn).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1522,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5079,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6578947368421053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.228,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 20.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.64"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.64
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: N\u00f5mme United 0.98 xG vs Flora Tallinn 1.62 \u2192 Flora Tallinn 50.8%",
"Market: Flora Tallinn ~60.9% implied",
"Market Drift: N\u00f5mme United odds \u2191 +18.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Flora Tallinn projects stronger on expected goals (+0.64 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.54,
"fair_prob": 21.33,
"label": "N\u00f5mme United",
"market_prob": 18.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.61,
"fair_prob": 27.88,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 20.27,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.14,
"fair_prob": 50.8,
"label": "Flora Tallinn",
"market_prob": 60.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.52,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 69.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.52,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 30.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.37,
"fair_prob": 51.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 65.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.37,
"fair_prob": 48.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 34.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.8,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Flora Tallinn",
"market_prob_pct": 60.94,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "N\u00f5mme United"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Flora Tallinn\u0027s win probability at 60.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 50.8%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.14,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Flora Tallinn",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 60.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.1,
"model_prob_pct": 50.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Flora Tallinn \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: N\u00f5mme United 0.98 xG vs Flora Tallinn 1.62 \u2192 Flora Tallinn 50.8%",
"Market: Flora Tallinn ~60.9% implied",
"Market Drift: N\u00f5mme United odds \u2191 +18.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Flora Tallinn projects stronger on expected goals (+0.64 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.14,
"hero_label": "Flora Tallinn",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "N\u00f5mme United odds lengthened \u2191 +18.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, N\u00f5mme United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.4%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Flora Tallinn than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from N\u00f5mme United \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Flora Tallinn than the current fair estimate.",
"However, N\u00f5mme United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.4%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from N\u00f5mme United \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Flora Tallinn more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, N\u00f5mme United has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (5/11), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.14,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 22.9 pp (at 50.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 22.9,
"max_prob_pct": 50.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Flora Tallinn",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Flora Tallinn higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.54,
"edge_pp": 2.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.33,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "N\u00f5mme United",
"market_prob_pct": 18.79,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.61,
"edge_pp": 7.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.88,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 20.27,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.14,
"edge_pp": -10.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.8,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Flora Tallinn",
"market_prob_pct": 60.94,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from N\u00f5mme United \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Flora Tallinn (60.9%).",
"However, N\u00f5mme United has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +18.4%, 5/11) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Flora Tallinn \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 65.79,
"closing_odds": 1.52,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 65.79,
"entry_odds": 1.52,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +26.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 26.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.6
}
],
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "5/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 18.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 112h 17m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on N\u00f5mme United (18.4%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.93",
"4.37",
"3.80"
],
"display": "5.26 \u2192 3.80 \u2192 4.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 112h 17m",
"pick_team": "N\u00f5mme United",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.26"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.8,
4.93,
4.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.93"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.8,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: N\u00f5mme United odds \u2191 +18.4% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "N\u00f5mme United",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: N\u00f5mme United odds \u2191 +18.4% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "N\u00f5mme United",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/11",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"pick_team": "N\u00f5mme United",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_team_name": "N\u00f5mme United",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "flora-tallinn",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Flora Tallinn",
"away_team_id": 687,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/687.webp",
"away_team_name": "Flora Tallinn",
"away_team_public_id": "3LqFu9ksxVCKY1",
"away_team_slug": "flora-tallinn",
"country_code": "EE",
"country_display_name": "Estonia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ee.svg",
"country_id": 50,
"country_name": "Estonia",
"fixture_id": 1513631,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Estonia",
"home_team_display_name": "N\u00f5mme United",
"home_team_id": 10059,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10059.webp",
"home_team_name": "N\u00f5mme United",
"home_team_public_id": "4KCWCtUq9NVLgs",
"home_team_slug": "nomme-united",
"ht.home_team_slug": "nomme-united",
"league_country": "Estonia",
"league_country_display": "Estonia",
"league_display_name": "Meistriliiga",
"league_id": 329,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/329.webp",
"league_name": "Meistriliiga",
"league_public_id": "2ZZZJNru7ang9D",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 14:00:00",
"public_id": "1W0r9D0bSphhJp",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Tallinn",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5087,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0516,
"ev": -0.1522,
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6094,
"draw": 0.2027,
"home": 0.1879
},
"model_prob": 0.5079,
"p_final": 0.5578
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1772,
"best_odd": 4.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0121,
"implied_prob": 0.2027,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6094,
"draw": 0.2027,
"home": 0.1879
},
"model_prob": 0.2787,
"p_final": 0.2162
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1924,
"best_odd": 4.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0049,
"ev": -0.0495,
"implied_prob": 0.1879,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6094,
"draw": 0.2027,
"home": 0.1879
},
"model_prob": 0.2134,
"p_final": 0.1928
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.15,
"ev": -0.228,
"implied_prob": 0.6579,
"model_prob": 0.5079
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.57,
"edge": 0.0599,
"ev": 0.2738,
"implied_prob": 0.2188,
"model_prob": 0.2787
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.93,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": 0.0518,
"implied_prob": 0.2028,
"model_prob": 0.2134
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1411,
"alpha_yes": 0.194,
"best_no_odd": 2.9,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1437,
"edge_yes": -0.1437,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4036,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0275,
"ev_yes": -0.226,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1213,
"implied_no": 0.3403,
"implied_yes": 0.6597,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1411,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0203,
"ev": -0.0275,
"implied_prob": 0.3399,
"model_prob": 0.484,
"p_final": 0.3602
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.194,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.028,
"ev": -0.1213,
"implied_prob": 0.6601,
"model_prob": 0.516,
"p_final": 0.6322
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3602,
"p_final_yes": 0.6322,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1661,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.4,
"best_under_odd": 3.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.285,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.015,
"edge_over": -0.2152,
"edge_under": 0.2152,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3252,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1458,
"ev_under": 0.7094,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0461,
"implied_over": 0.6972,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7012,
"implied_under": 0.3028,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2988,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1661,
"best_odd": 1.285,
"edge": -0.0364,
"ev": -0.1458,
"implied_prob": 0.7012,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6648
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.015,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0461,
"implied_prob": 0.2988,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3164
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6648,
"p_final_under": 0.3164,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flora Tallinn)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Flora Tallinn at 50.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 60.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Flora Tallinn as the value side (50.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Flora Tallinn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +70.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +70.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +70.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+70.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flora Tallinn).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1522,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5079,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6578947368421053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.228,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 20.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.64"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.64
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.516,
"draw_prob": 0.2787,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5079,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.64
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.52,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0516,
"ev": -0.1522,
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.5079,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Flora Tallinn"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1411,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0203,
"market_prob": 0.3399,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.484,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1411,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0203,
"ev": -0.0275,
"implied_prob": 0.3399,
"model_prob": 0.484,
"p_final": 0.3602
},
"p_final": 0.3602,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0275,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.194,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.028,
"ev": -0.1213,
"implied_prob": 0.6601,
"model_prob": 0.516,
"p_final": 0.6322
}
},
"edge": 0.1437,
"ev": 0.4036,
"implied_prob": 0.3403,
"model_prob": 0.484,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.015,
"edge": 0.0175,
"market_prob": 0.2988,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1661,
"best_odd": 1.285,
"edge": -0.0364,
"ev": -0.1458,
"implied_prob": 0.7012,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6648
},
"p_final": 0.3164,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0461,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.015,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0461,
"implied_prob": 0.2988,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3164
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2152,
"ev": 0.7094,
"implied_prob": 0.3028,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1513631,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.7094,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.5079,
"draw": 0.2787,
"home": 0.2134
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4036,
"implied_prob": 0.3403,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.484,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4036,
"implied_prob": 0.3403,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.484,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Flora Tallinn",
"home": "N\u00f5mme United"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.367469,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7094,
"implied_prob": 0.3028,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1522,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5079,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6578947368421053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.228,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1513631,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T13:56:18.772736+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Nõmme United & Flora Tallinn!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Meistriliiga — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 29 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 72 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 29 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 55 |
| 3 | Paide | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 51 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 50 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 29 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 44 |
| 6 | Laagri | 29 | 11 | 2 | 16 | 35 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 29 | 10 | 4 | 15 | 34 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 29 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 29 | 9 | 1 | 19 | 28 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 29 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 19 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 29 | 81 | 21 | +60 | 72 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 29 | 59 | 39 | +20 | 55 |
| 3 | Kalju Nomme | 29 | 52 | 27 | +25 | 50 |
| 4 | Paide | 29 | 48 | 36 | +12 | 51 |
| 5 | Nõmme United | 29 | 47 | 68 | -21 | 28 |
| 6 | Laagri | 29 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 35 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 29 | 39 | 57 | -18 | 34 |
| 8 | Tammeka | 29 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 44 |
| 9 | Kuressaare | 29 | 31 | 49 | -18 | 29 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 29 | 22 | 65 | -43 | 19 |
