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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Colorado Rapids II Colorado Rapids II ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.2
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Colorado Rapids II win · Colorado Rapids II 2–1 North Texas
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.16,
"away_win_prob": 0.2881,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.46,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2931,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.47,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.41,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.39,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.44,
"home_win_prob": 0.4188,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or North Texas",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "North Texas"
},
"away_xg": 1.16,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Colorado Rapids II",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.055,
"edge_gap": 0.1252,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3635,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 28.8,
"draw": 29.3,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.52
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.52,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Colorado Rapids II Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.75,
"market_odds": 2.52,
"model_odds": 2.39,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": 2.2,
"value_pct": 5.4,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 26,
"away_score_rate": 68.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 26,
"home_score_rate": 76.3,
"no_prob": 46.0,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.16,
"home_expected": 1.44,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Colorado Rapids II or Draw",
"prob": 71.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Colorado Rapids II or North Texas",
"prob": 70.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or North Texas",
"prob": 58.1
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Colorado Rapids II or Draw",
"pick_prob": 71.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 28.8,
"draw_pct": 29.3,
"home_pct": 41.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Colorado Rapids II"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 21.9,
"implied_prob": 24.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.3,
"odds": 4.16
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "North Texas",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 41.63,
"draw": 22.02,
"home": 36.35
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 20:59:28",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 20:29:53",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Colorado Rapids II",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.35,
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.85
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.02,
"gap_pp": 7.31,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.33
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.63,
"gap_pp": -12.81,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 28.82
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.15,
"gap_pp": -11.95,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.85,
"gap_pp": 11.95,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.52,
"early": 2.52,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.35,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.35,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.16,
"early": 4.16,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.02,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.2,
"early": 2.2,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.55,
"early": 1.55,
"implied_closing_pct": 60.15,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 60.15,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.34,
"early": 2.34,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.85,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.85,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.9,
"ev": -0.07,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.44,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1542,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0147,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.3646,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.46,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1542,
"best_odd": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.048,
"implied_prob": 0.3646,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.3793
},
"p_final": 0.3793,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1546,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.048,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2121,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1141,
"implied_prob": 0.6354,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.6152
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3248,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 32.5,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.19,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.0,
"text": "-19.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3248,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 46.0,
"sort_key": 10442.32,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.0
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1477,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.335,
"edge": 0.0177,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.3982,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.203,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0243,
"ev": -0.1078,
"implied_prob": 0.6018,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5775
},
"p_final": 0.4159,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2095,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0289,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1477,
"best_odd": 2.335,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.0289,
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4159
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.3,
"text": "-24.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 21.7,
"text": "+21.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2173,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10195.57,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0268,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.7,
"text": "-2.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3635,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0268,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.7,
"text": "-2.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0546,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Colorado Rapids II",
"sort_key": 1793.3,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -11.5%",
"alert_team": "Colorado Rapids II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.82,
"hero_label": "North Texas",
"market_prob_pct": 36.4,
"market_team": "North Texas",
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"model_team": "Colorado Rapids II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colorado Rapids II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colorado Rapids II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3248,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3248,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colorado Rapids II at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colorado Rapids II as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colorado Rapids II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colorado Rapids II).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0268,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3635,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0546,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "2/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2857142857142857,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.82,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.82,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.16,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.44,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.44,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.44 \u00b7 Away xG 1.16 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -11.5%",
"steam_team": "Colorado Rapids II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colorado Rapids II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colorado Rapids II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3248,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3248,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colorado Rapids II at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colorado Rapids II as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colorado Rapids II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colorado Rapids II).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0268,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3635,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0546,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Colorado Rapids II 1.44 xG vs North Texas 1.16 \u2192 Colorado Rapids II 41.9%",
"Market: North Texas ~36.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Colorado Rapids II \u2193 -11.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Colorado Rapids II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.53,
"fair_prob": 41.88,
"label": "Colorado Rapids II",
"market_prob": 36.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.29,
"fair_prob": 29.31,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.82,
"fair_prob": 28.81,
"label": "North Texas",
"market_prob": 41.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.01,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.21,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.01,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.79,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.99,
"fair_prob": 54.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.99,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.99,
"fair_prob": 46.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.01,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "North Texas",
"market_prob_pct": 41.63,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Colorado Rapids II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates North Texas\u0027s win probability at 41.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 28.8%, a difference of 12.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.82,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Colorado Rapids II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.5,
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Colorado Rapids II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Colorado Rapids II 1.44 xG vs North Texas 1.16 \u2192 Colorado Rapids II 41.9%",
"Market: North Texas ~36.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Colorado Rapids II \u2193 -11.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Colorado Rapids II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.82,
"hero_label": "North Texas",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Colorado Rapids II odds shortened \u2193 -11.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Colorado Rapids II, with odds shortening by 11.5%. Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about North Texas than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Colorado Rapids II \u2014 odds shortened by 11.5%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about North Texas than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Colorado Rapids II, with odds shortening by 11.5%. Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Buying interest on Colorado Rapids II \u2014 odds shortened by 11.5%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors North Texas more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Colorado Rapids II has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 11.5%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.82,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.6 pp (at 41.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.6,
"max_prob_pct": 41.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "North Texas",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices North Texas higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.53,
"edge_pp": 5.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Colorado Rapids II",
"market_prob_pct": 36.35,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.29,
"edge_pp": 7.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.02,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -12.82,
"edge_pp": -12.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "North Texas",
"market_prob_pct": 41.63,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Colorado Rapids II \u2014 odds shortened by 11.5%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers North Texas (36.4%).",
"Colorado Rapids II has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -11.5%, 2/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Colorado Rapids II, Market \u2192 North Texas, Recent sharp money \u2192 Colorado Rapids II.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.45,
"closing_odds": 2.2,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.45,
"entry_odds": 2.2,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "2/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 27m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Colorado Rapids II (11.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.88",
"2.70",
"2.52"
],
"display": "2.88 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 2.55",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 27m",
"pick_team": "Colorado Rapids II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.55"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.88,
2.52,
2.55
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,16.5",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.52"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.55"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.88,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Colorado Rapids II",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.55,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.5%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Colorado Rapids II",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/7",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.5%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"pick_team": "Colorado Rapids II",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_team_name": "Colorado Rapids II",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "north-texas",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "North Texas",
"away_team_id": 10282,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10282.webp",
"away_team_name": "North Texas",
"away_team_public_id": "2UOcDsP1j6f0id",
"away_team_slug": "north-texas",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1513371,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Colorado Rapids II",
"home_team_id": 4102,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4102.webp",
"home_team_name": "Colorado Rapids II",
"home_team_public_id": "0Z3phLWXfLHmIl",
"home_team_slug": "colorado-rapids-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "colorado-rapids-ii",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "MLS Next Pro",
"league_id": 909,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/909.webp",
"league_name": "MLS Next Pro",
"league_public_id": "3CwVqdBnoU3vAe",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 21:00:00",
"public_id": "1xWzvv1QZcQBxH",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "CIBER Field"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3635,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0466,
"ev": -0.1865,
"implied_prob": 0.4163,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4163,
"draw": 0.2202,
"home": 0.3635
},
"model_prob": 0.2882,
"p_final": 0.3698
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1781,
"best_odd": 4.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0299,
"implied_prob": 0.2202,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4163,
"draw": 0.2202,
"home": 0.3635
},
"model_prob": 0.2933,
"p_final": 0.2332
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4129,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": -0.0268,
"implied_prob": 0.3635,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4163,
"draw": 0.2202,
"home": 0.3635
},
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"p_final": 0.3862
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.1663,
"ev": -0.3659,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.2882
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.16,
"edge": 0.0529,
"ev": 0.2201,
"implied_prob": 0.2404,
"model_prob": 0.2933
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": 0.0546,
"implied_prob": 0.3968,
"model_prob": 0.4185
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1542,
"alpha_yes": 0.2121,
"best_no_odd": 2.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0999,
"edge_yes": -0.0999,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3248,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.048,
"ev_yes": -0.19,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1141,
"implied_no": 0.3601,
"implied_yes": 0.6399,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1542,
"best_odd": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.048,
"implied_prob": 0.3646,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.3793
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2121,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1141,
"implied_prob": 0.6354,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.6152
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3793,
"p_final_yes": 0.6152,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.203,
"alpha_under": 0.1477,
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.545,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.335,
"edge_over": -0.1201,
"edge_under": 0.1201,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1078,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0289,
"implied_over": 0.6021,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6018,
"implied_under": 0.3979,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3982,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.203,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0243,
"ev": -0.1078,
"implied_prob": 0.6018,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5775
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1477,
"best_odd": 2.335,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.0289,
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4159
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5775,
"p_final_under": 0.4159,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3248,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3248,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3248,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colorado Rapids II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3248,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3248,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colorado Rapids II at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colorado Rapids II as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colorado Rapids II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colorado Rapids II).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0268,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3635,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0546,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"draw_prob": 0.2933,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4185,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": -0.0268,
"implied_prob": 0.3635,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Colorado Rapids II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1542,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0147,
"market_prob": 0.3646,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.46,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1542,
"best_odd": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.048,
"implied_prob": 0.3646,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.3793
},
"p_final": 0.3793,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.048,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2121,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1141,
"implied_prob": 0.6354,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.6152
}
},
"edge": 0.0999,
"ev": 0.3248,
"implied_prob": 0.3601,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1477,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.335,
"edge": 0.0177,
"market_prob": 0.3982,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.203,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0243,
"ev": -0.1078,
"implied_prob": 0.6018,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5775
},
"p_final": 0.4159,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0289,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1477,
"best_odd": 2.335,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.0289,
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4159
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1201,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.3979,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1513371,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3248,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2882,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.4185
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.3979,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.3979,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "North Texas",
"home": "Colorado Rapids II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.149408,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3248,
"implied_prob": 0.3601,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.46,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0268,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3635,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0546,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1513371,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T20:59:30.040631+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Colorado Rapids II & North Texas!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
MLS Next Pro — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Crew II | 28 | 17 | 0 | 11 | 48 |
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 26 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 54 |
| 1 | Austin II | 26 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 59 |
| 2 | New England II | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 48 |
| 2 | Chattanooga | 26 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 50 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 26 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 54 |
| 3 | New York City II | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 47 |
| 3 | Atlanta United II | 26 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 45 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo FC II | 26 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 51 |
| 4 | Connecticut FC | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 46 |
| 4 | LA Galaxy II | 26 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 50 |
| 5 | New York RB II | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 46 |
| 5 | St. Louis City II | 26 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 43 |
| 6 | Bethlehem Steel | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 43 |
| 6 | Los Angeles II | 26 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Toronto II | 28 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 39 |
| 7 | Tacoma Defiance | 26 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 39 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati II | 28 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 20 |
| 8 | North Texas | 26 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 38 |
| 9 | Orlando City II | 26 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 41 |
| 9 | Minnesota United II | 25 | 12 | 0 | 13 | 37 |
| 10 | San Jose Earthquakes II | 26 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 36 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs | 25 | 11 | 0 | 14 | 29 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire II | 26 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 39 |
| 12 | Whitecaps II | 26 | 10 | 0 | 16 | 27 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 26 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 38 |
| 13 | Swope Park Rangers | 26 | 6 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 14 | Carolina Core | 26 | 9 | 0 | 17 | 28 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 26 | 5 | 0 | 21 | 18 |
| 16 | Fort Lauderdale CF | 26 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 15 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 26 | 63 | 36 | +27 | 54 |
| 2 | Connecticut FC | 28 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 46 |
| 3 | New York RB II | 28 | 58 | 48 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Atlanta United II | 26 | 57 | 40 | +17 | 45 |
| 5 | LA Galaxy II | 26 | 54 | 34 | +20 | 50 |
| 6 | Austin II | 26 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 59 |
| 7 | Houston Dynamo FC II | 26 | 51 | 30 | +21 | 51 |
| 8 | Chattanooga | 26 | 51 | 38 | +13 | 50 |
| 9 | New York City II | 28 | 50 | 44 | +6 | 47 |
| 10 | Orlando City II | 26 | 50 | 51 | -1 | 41 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew II | 28 | 49 | 43 | +6 | 48 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire II | 26 | 49 | 45 | +4 | 39 |
| 13 | Toronto II | 28 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 39 |
| 14 | New England II | 28 | 47 | 42 | +5 | 48 |
| 15 | San Jose Earthquakes II | 26 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 36 |
| 16 | Los Angeles II | 26 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 42 |
| 17 | Huntsville City | 26 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 38 |
| 18 | St. Louis City II | 26 | 41 | 37 | +4 | 43 |
| 19 | North Texas | 26 | 41 | 39 | +2 | 38 |
| 20 | Tacoma Defiance | 26 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 39 |
| 21 | Whitecaps II | 26 | 38 | 55 | -17 | 27 |
| 22 | Bethlehem Steel | 28 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 43 |
| 23 | Carolina Core | 26 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 28 |
| 24 | Real Monarchs | 25 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 29 |
| 25 | Portland Timbers II | 26 | 35 | 27 | +8 | 54 |
| 26 | Minnesota United II | 25 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 37 |
| 27 | FC Cincinnati II | 28 | 32 | 62 | -30 | 20 |
| 28 | Swope Park Rangers | 26 | 32 | 68 | -36 | 20 |
| 29 | Fort Lauderdale CF | 26 | 27 | 63 | -36 | 15 |
| 30 | Colorado Rapids II | 26 | 26 | 50 | -24 | 18 |
