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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (6 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 New York RB II New York City II ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.96
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
New York City II win · New York City II 4–2 New York RB II
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"content_hash": "6d6d0705de619bb3e5e7f4938140d1b79db40b23382ed4c77b09b9821054907f",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"away_win_prob": 0.3611,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.77,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.92,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"home_win_prob": 0.3424,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : New York City II or draw and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "New York City II"
},
"away_xg": 1.32,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "New York RB II",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1058,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4667,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.1,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.96
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.96,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "New York RB II Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.14,
"market_odds": 1.96,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 9.3,
"prob_edge": -14.9,
"value_pct": -29.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 25,
"away_score_rate": 73.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 25,
"home_score_rate": 72.2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.32,
"home_expected": 1.28,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "New York City II or Draw",
"prob": 63.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "New York City II or New York RB II",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or New York RB II",
"prob": 65.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "New York City II or New York RB II",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.1,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "New York RB II"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 20.2,
"implied_prob": 24.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 4.06
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "New York RB II",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 46.67,
"draw": 22.53,
"home": 30.8
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-08 20:59:15",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-08 20:29:17",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "New York City II",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.8,
"gap_pp": 3.44,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.53,
"gap_pp": 7.14,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.67,
"gap_pp": -10.58,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.09
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.97,
"early": 2.97,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.8,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.8,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.06,
"early": 4.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.53,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.96,
"early": 1.96,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.67,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"kind": "1x2_d"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 3.4,
"ev": 0.375,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 11.0,
"market_prob": 0.0909,
"market_prob_pct": 9.1,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.28,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0208,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.2585,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1512,
"best_odd": 1.22,
"edge": -0.0392,
"ev": -0.1432,
"implied_prob": 0.7415,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7023
},
"p_final": 0.2792,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 25.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.813,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0227,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0227,
"implied_prob": 0.2585,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2792
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.383,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -38.3,
"text": "-38.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.9684,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 96.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.9684,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 11021.56,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0818,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.325,
"edge": 0.0149,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.2732,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0818,
"best_odd": 3.325,
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0421,
"implied_prob": 0.2732,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2881
},
"p_final": 0.2881,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5129,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0421,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.18,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0327,
"ev": -0.1324,
"implied_prob": 0.7268,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6941
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.5925,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 59.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2969,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -29.7,
"text": "-29.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.5925,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10533.25,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "monitor",
"authority_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1899,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.0,
"text": "-19.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4667,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0335,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.4,
"text": "-3.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2926,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "New York RB II",
"sort_key": 1791.625,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.0%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.56,
"hero_label": "New York RB II",
"market_prob_pct": 46.7,
"market_team": "New York RB II",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "New York RB II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 49,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (New York RB II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (New York RB II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.9684,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9684,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates New York RB II at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies New York RB II as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "New York RB II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +96.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +96.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +96.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+96.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (New York RB II).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1899,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4667,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2926,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "6/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5454545454545454,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.56,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.56,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.0%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (New York RB II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (New York RB II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.9684,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9684,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates New York RB II at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies New York RB II as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "New York RB II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +96.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +96.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +96.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+96.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (New York RB II).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1899,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4667,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2926,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: New York City II 1.28 xG vs New York RB II 1.32 \u2192 New York RB II 36.1%",
"Market: New York RB II ~46.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +11.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean New York RB II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.44,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "New York City II",
"market_prob": 30.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.12,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.56,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "New York RB II",
"market_prob": 46.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -26.06,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 74.26,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 26.06,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 25.74,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -18.28,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 72.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 18.28,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 27.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "New York RB II",
"market_prob_pct": 46.67,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates New York RB II\u0027s win probability at 46.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.56,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "New York RB II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.6,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "New York RB II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: New York City II 1.28 xG vs New York RB II 1.32 \u2192 New York RB II 36.1%",
"Market: New York RB II ~46.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +11.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean New York RB II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.56,
"hero_label": "New York RB II",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +11.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about New York RB II than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about New York RB II than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors New York RB II more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.0%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.56,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "New York RB II",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices New York RB II higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.44,
"edge_pp": 3.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "New York City II",
"market_prob_pct": 30.8,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.12,
"edge_pp": 7.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.53,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.56,
"edge_pp": -10.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "New York RB II",
"market_prob_pct": 46.67,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers New York RB II (46.7%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +11.0%, 6/11) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"New York RB II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.02,
"closing_odds": 1.96,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.02,
"entry_odds": 1.96,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.5
}
],
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "6/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.33,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 21h 47m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Draw (11.0%, 6/11) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.33",
"4.12",
"3.90"
],
"display": "4.33 \u2192 3.60 \u2192 4.33",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 21h 47m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.33"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.9,
4.06,
4.33
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,11.3 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.33"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.9,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/11 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.33,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.0%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 49,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/11",
"current_odds": 4.33,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.0%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 49,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "new-york-rb-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "New York RB II",
"away_team_id": 4004,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4004.webp",
"away_team_name": "New York RB II",
"away_team_public_id": "2NX2BrwpK0kbJv",
"away_team_slug": "new-york-rb-ii",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1513344,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "New York City II",
"home_team_id": 18815,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18815.webp",
"home_team_name": "New York City II",
"home_team_public_id": "42ust2CJwV9Z6Z",
"home_team_slug": "new-york-city-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "new-york-city-ii",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "MLS Next Pro",
"league_id": 909,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/909.webp",
"league_name": "MLS Next Pro",
"league_public_id": "3CwVqdBnoU3vAe",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-08 21:00:00",
"public_id": "4Mg683GaakTstX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Belson Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5048,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0534,
"ev": -0.1899,
"implied_prob": 0.4667,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4667,
"draw": 0.2253,
"home": 0.308
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4133
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1786,
"best_odd": 4.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0335,
"implied_prob": 0.2253,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4667,
"draw": 0.2253,
"home": 0.308
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2381
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4268,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0417,
"implied_prob": 0.308,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4667,
"draw": 0.2253,
"home": 0.308
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3227
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": -0.1493,
"ev": -0.2926,
"implied_prob": 0.5102,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.06,
"edge": 0.0504,
"ev": 0.2045,
"implied_prob": 0.2463,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0057,
"ev": 0.0169,
"implied_prob": 0.3367,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.0818,
"alpha_yes": 0.18,
"best_no_odd": 3.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.29,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1828,
"edge_yes": -0.1828,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.5925,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0421,
"ev_yes": -0.2969,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1324,
"implied_no": 0.2722,
"implied_yes": 0.7278,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0818,
"best_odd": 3.325,
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0421,
"implied_prob": 0.2732,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2881
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.18,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0327,
"ev": -0.1324,
"implied_prob": 0.7268,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6941
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.2881,
"p_final_yes": 0.6941,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1512,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.28,
"best_under_odd": 3.8,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.22,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.5,
"edge_over": -0.2606,
"edge_under": 0.2606,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.383,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1432,
"ev_under": 0.9684,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0227,
"implied_over": 0.7426,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7415,
"implied_under": 0.2574,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2585,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1512,
"best_odd": 1.22,
"edge": -0.0392,
"ev": -0.1432,
"implied_prob": 0.7415,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7023
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0227,
"implied_prob": 0.2585,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2792
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7023,
"p_final_under": 0.2792,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.9684,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9684,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.9684,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (New York RB II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.9684,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9684,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates New York RB II at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies New York RB II as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "New York RB II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +96.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +96.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +96.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+96.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (New York RB II).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1899,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4667,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2926,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0534,
"ev": -0.1899,
"implied_prob": 0.4667,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "New York RB II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0818,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.325,
"edge": 0.0149,
"market_prob": 0.2732,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0818,
"best_odd": 3.325,
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0421,
"implied_prob": 0.2732,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2881
},
"p_final": 0.2881,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0421,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.18,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0327,
"ev": -0.1324,
"implied_prob": 0.7268,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6941
}
},
"edge": 0.1828,
"ev": 0.5925,
"implied_prob": 0.2722,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0208,
"market_prob": 0.2585,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1512,
"best_odd": 1.22,
"edge": -0.0392,
"ev": -0.1432,
"implied_prob": 0.7415,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7023
},
"p_final": 0.2792,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0227,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0227,
"implied_prob": 0.2585,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2792
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2606,
"ev": 0.9684,
"implied_prob": 0.2574,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1513344,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.9684,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5925,
"implied_prob": 0.2722,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5925,
"implied_prob": 0.2722,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "New York RB II",
"home": "New York City II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.351142,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.9684,
"implied_prob": 0.2574,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1899,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4667,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2926,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1513344,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-08T20:59:17.066113+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho New York City II & New York RB II!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
MLS Next Pro — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Crew II | 28 | 17 | 0 | 11 | 48 |
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 26 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 54 |
| 1 | Austin II | 26 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 59 |
| 2 | New England II | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 48 |
| 2 | Chattanooga | 26 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 50 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 26 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 54 |
| 3 | New York City II | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 47 |
| 3 | Atlanta United II | 26 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 45 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo FC II | 26 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 51 |
| 4 | Connecticut FC | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 46 |
| 4 | LA Galaxy II | 26 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 50 |
| 5 | New York RB II | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 46 |
| 5 | St. Louis City II | 26 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 43 |
| 6 | Bethlehem Steel | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 43 |
| 6 | Los Angeles II | 26 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Toronto II | 28 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 39 |
| 7 | Tacoma Defiance | 26 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 39 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati II | 28 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 20 |
| 8 | North Texas | 26 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 38 |
| 9 | Orlando City II | 26 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 41 |
| 9 | Minnesota United II | 25 | 12 | 0 | 13 | 37 |
| 10 | San Jose Earthquakes II | 26 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 36 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs | 25 | 11 | 0 | 14 | 29 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire II | 26 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 39 |
| 12 | Whitecaps II | 26 | 10 | 0 | 16 | 27 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 26 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 38 |
| 13 | Swope Park Rangers | 26 | 6 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 14 | Carolina Core | 26 | 9 | 0 | 17 | 28 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 26 | 5 | 0 | 21 | 18 |
| 16 | Fort Lauderdale CF | 26 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 15 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 26 | 63 | 36 | +27 | 54 |
| 2 | Connecticut FC | 28 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 46 |
| 3 | New York RB II | 28 | 58 | 48 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Atlanta United II | 26 | 57 | 40 | +17 | 45 |
| 5 | LA Galaxy II | 26 | 54 | 34 | +20 | 50 |
| 6 | Austin II | 26 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 59 |
| 7 | Houston Dynamo FC II | 26 | 51 | 30 | +21 | 51 |
| 8 | Chattanooga | 26 | 51 | 38 | +13 | 50 |
| 9 | New York City II | 28 | 50 | 44 | +6 | 47 |
| 10 | Orlando City II | 26 | 50 | 51 | -1 | 41 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew II | 28 | 49 | 43 | +6 | 48 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire II | 26 | 49 | 45 | +4 | 39 |
| 13 | Toronto II | 28 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 39 |
| 14 | New England II | 28 | 47 | 42 | +5 | 48 |
| 15 | San Jose Earthquakes II | 26 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 36 |
| 16 | Los Angeles II | 26 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 42 |
| 17 | Huntsville City | 26 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 38 |
| 18 | St. Louis City II | 26 | 41 | 37 | +4 | 43 |
| 19 | North Texas | 26 | 41 | 39 | +2 | 38 |
| 20 | Tacoma Defiance | 26 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 39 |
| 21 | Whitecaps II | 26 | 38 | 55 | -17 | 27 |
| 22 | Bethlehem Steel | 28 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 43 |
| 23 | Carolina Core | 26 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 28 |
| 24 | Real Monarchs | 25 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 29 |
| 25 | Portland Timbers II | 26 | 35 | 27 | +8 | 54 |
| 26 | Minnesota United II | 25 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 37 |
| 27 | FC Cincinnati II | 28 | 32 | 62 | -30 | 20 |
| 28 | Swope Park Rangers | 26 | 32 | 68 | -36 | 20 |
| 29 | Fort Lauderdale CF | 26 | 27 | 63 | -36 | 15 |
| 30 | Colorado Rapids II | 26 | 26 | 50 | -24 | 18 |
