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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Åstorp Qviding FIF ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.86
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Qviding FIF win · Åstorp 1–2 Qviding FIF
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"content_hash": "f6b98d000b37d1c3c84e34523c0b88c9bc2adf77b8d45c51904df1fb3406a0a0",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.26,
"away_win_prob": 0.3331,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2963,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.0,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.7,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.34,
"home_win_prob": 0.3706,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : \u00c5storp or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "\u00c5storp"
},
"away_xg": 1.26,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "\u00c5storp",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1068,
"edge_gap": 0.0371,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4773,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 33.3,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 37.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.86
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.86,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "\u00c5storp Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.09,
"market_odds": 1.86,
"model_odds": 2.7,
"overround": 12.6,
"prob_edge": -16.7,
"value_pct": -31.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 20,
"away_score_rate": 71.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 20,
"home_score_rate": 73.8,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.26,
"home_expected": 1.34,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "\u00c5storp or Draw",
"prob": 66.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "\u00c5storp or Qviding FIF",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Qviding FIF",
"prob": 62.9
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "\u00c5storp or Qviding FIF",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 33.3,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 37.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "\u00c5storp"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 8.3,
"implied_prob": 27.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.66
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Qviding FIF",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 28.01,
"draw": 24.26,
"home": 47.73
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 10:59:53",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 10:29:58",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "\u00c5storp",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.73,
"gap_pp": -10.68,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 37.05
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.26,
"gap_pp": 5.34,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.01,
"gap_pp": 5.34,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 33.35
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 66.26,
"gap_pp": -18.06,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.74,
"gap_pp": 18.06,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.86,
"early": 1.86,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.73,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.73,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.66,
"early": 3.66,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.26,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.17,
"early": 3.17,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.01,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.01,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.38,
"early": 1.38,
"implied_closing_pct": 66.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 66.26,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.71,
"early": 2.71,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.74,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 18.1,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 2.5,
"ev": 0.25,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 10.0,
"market_prob": 0.1,
"market_prob_pct": 10.0,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.34,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1293,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.74,
"edge": 0.0243,
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"market_prob": 0.3301,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1777,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0334,
"ev": -0.1407,
"implied_prob": 0.6699,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6365
},
"p_final": 0.3544,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4193,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.029,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1293,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"edge": 0.0243,
"ev": -0.029,
"implied_prob": 0.3301,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3544
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3348,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -33.5,
"text": "-33.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.6835,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 68.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.6835,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10765.15,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1461,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0184,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.3293,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1461,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.044,
"implied_prob": 0.3293,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3476
},
"p_final": 0.3476,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2512,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.044,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2008,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1286,
"implied_prob": 0.6707,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6455
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4788,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 47.9,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2588,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.9,
"text": "-25.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.4788,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10430.92,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from \u00c5storp, but the model still strongly favours \u00c5storp.",
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2122,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.2,
"text": "-21.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4773,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0582,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.8,
"text": "-5.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3109,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "\u00c5storp",
"sort_key": 1785.45,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"alert_team": "\u00c5storp",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.67,
"hero_label": "\u00c5storp",
"market_prob_pct": 47.7,
"market_team": "\u00c5storp",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "\u00c5storp",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from \u00c5storp, but the model still strongly favours \u00c5storp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from \u00c5storp, but the model still strongly favours \u00c5storp."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6835,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6835,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u00c5storp at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u00c5storp as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from \u00c5storp, but the model still strongly favours \u00c5storp.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u00c5storp",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +68.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +68.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +68.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+68.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from \u00c5storp, but the model still strongly favours \u00c5storp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from \u00c5storp, but the model still strongly favours \u00c5storp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2122,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4773,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5376344086021505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3109,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.125,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.2,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 54,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.67,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.67,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.26,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.34,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.34 \u00b7 Away xG 1.26 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"steam_team": "\u00c5storp",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from \u00c5storp, but the model still strongly favours \u00c5storp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from \u00c5storp, but the model still strongly favours \u00c5storp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from \u00c5storp, but the model still strongly favours \u00c5storp."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6835,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6835,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u00c5storp at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u00c5storp as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from \u00c5storp, but the model still strongly favours \u00c5storp.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u00c5storp",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +68.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +68.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +68.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+68.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from \u00c5storp, but the model still strongly favours \u00c5storp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from \u00c5storp, but the model still strongly favours \u00c5storp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2122,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4773,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5376344086021505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3109,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from \u00c5storp, but the model still strongly favours \u00c5storp.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u00c5storp 1.34 xG vs Qviding FIF 1.26 \u2192 \u00c5storp 37.1%",
"Market: \u00c5storp ~47.7% implied",
"Market Drift: \u00c5storp odds \u2191 +2.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours \u00c5storp, but the market has moved away from \u00c5storp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.67,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "\u00c5storp",
"market_prob": 47.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.37,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.3,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Qviding FIF",
"market_prob": 28.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.67,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 67.87,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.67,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 32.13,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.62,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 68.12,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.62,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 31.88,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "\u00c5storp",
"market_prob_pct": 47.73,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "\u00c5storp"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates \u00c5storp\u0027s win probability at 47.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 10.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.67,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "\u00c5storp",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.6,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 54,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from \u00c5storp, but the model still strongly favours \u00c5storp. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u00c5storp 1.34 xG vs Qviding FIF 1.26 \u2192 \u00c5storp 37.1%",
"Market: \u00c5storp ~47.7% implied",
"Market Drift: \u00c5storp odds \u2191 +2.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours \u00c5storp, but the market has moved away from \u00c5storp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.67,
"hero_label": "\u00c5storp",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "\u00c5storp odds lengthened \u2191 +2.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about \u00c5storp than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about \u00c5storp than the current fair estimate.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors \u00c5storp more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on \u00c5storp (\u2191 +2.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.67,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "\u00c5storp",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices \u00c5storp higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.67,
"edge_pp": -10.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "\u00c5storp",
"market_prob_pct": 47.73,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.37,
"edge_pp": 5.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.26,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.3,
"edge_pp": 5.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Qviding FIF",
"market_prob_pct": 28.01,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers \u00c5storp (47.7%).",
"\u00c5storp odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.7%, 1/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 \u00c5storp, Market \u2192 \u00c5storp, while \u00c5storp odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 53.76,
"closing_odds": 1.86,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 53.76,
"entry_odds": 1.86,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest closing-window shift",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 5h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on \u00c5storp (swing 2.18 \u2192 1.83 \u2192 1.90) \u2014 net 2.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.90",
"1.88",
"1.85"
],
"display": "2.18 \u2192 1.83 \u2192 1.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 5h 59m",
"pick_team": "\u00c5storp",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.18"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.83"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.85,
1.86,
1.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,14.4 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.85"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.85"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.85,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "\u00c5storp",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"open_odds": 1.85,
"summary": "Market moved away from \u00c5storp while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "\u00c5storp",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"current_odds": 1.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"open_odds": 1.85,
"pick_team": "\u00c5storp",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_team_name": "\u00c5storp",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "qviding-fif",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Qviding FIF",
"away_team_id": 6693,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6693.webp",
"away_team_name": "Qviding FIF",
"away_team_public_id": "3U4F9fB49fL27v",
"away_team_slug": "qviding-fif",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1511394,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "\u00c5storp",
"home_team_id": 14543,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14543.webp",
"home_team_name": "\u00c5storp",
"home_team_public_id": "3nWwTnkrCaMrQu",
"home_team_slug": "astorp",
"ht.home_team_slug": "astorp",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Division 2 - V\u00e4stra G\u00f6taland",
"league_id": 596,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/596.webp",
"league_name": "Division 2 - V\u00e4stra G\u00f6taland",
"league_public_id": "27TZ8x7rtpeogb",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 11:00:00",
"public_id": "5GJuYZZ2fN5d23",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.276,
"best_odd": 3.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0654,
"implied_prob": 0.2801,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2801,
"draw": 0.2426,
"home": 0.4773
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.2948
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.276,
"best_odd": 3.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.2426,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2801,
"draw": 0.2426,
"home": 0.4773
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2573
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5039,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0538,
"ev": -0.2122,
"implied_prob": 0.4773,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2801,
"draw": 0.2426,
"home": 0.4773
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.4235
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.17,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": 0.0571,
"implied_prob": 0.3155,
"model_prob": 0.3335
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.66,
"edge": 0.0228,
"ev": 0.0833,
"implied_prob": 0.2732,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": -0.1671,
"ev": -0.3108,
"implied_prob": 0.5376,
"model_prob": 0.3705
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1461,
"alpha_yes": 0.2008,
"best_no_odd": 3.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.36,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1362,
"edge_yes": -0.1362,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4788,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.044,
"ev_yes": -0.2588,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1286,
"implied_no": 0.3188,
"implied_yes": 0.6812,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1461,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.044,
"implied_prob": 0.3293,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3476
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2008,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1286,
"implied_prob": 0.6707,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6455
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.3476,
"p_final_yes": 0.6455,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1777,
"alpha_under": 0.1293,
"best_over_odd": 1.38,
"best_under_odd": 3.25,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.35,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.74,
"edge_over": -0.1967,
"edge_under": 0.1967,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3348,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1407,
"ev_under": 0.6835,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.029,
"implied_over": 0.6787,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6699,
"implied_under": 0.3213,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3301,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1777,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0334,
"ev": -0.1407,
"implied_prob": 0.6699,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6365
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1293,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"edge": 0.0243,
"ev": -0.029,
"implied_prob": 0.3301,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3544
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6365,
"p_final_under": 0.3544,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6835,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6835,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6835,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from \u00c5storp, but the model still strongly favours \u00c5storp."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6835,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6835,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u00c5storp at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u00c5storp as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from \u00c5storp, but the model still strongly favours \u00c5storp.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u00c5storp",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +68.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +68.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +68.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+68.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from \u00c5storp, but the model still strongly favours \u00c5storp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from \u00c5storp, but the model still strongly favours \u00c5storp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2122,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4773,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5376344086021505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3109,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0538,
"ev": -0.2122,
"implied_prob": 0.4773,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "\u00c5storp"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1461,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0184,
"market_prob": 0.3293,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1461,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.044,
"implied_prob": 0.3293,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3476
},
"p_final": 0.3476,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.044,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2008,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1286,
"implied_prob": 0.6707,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6455
}
},
"edge": 0.1362,
"ev": 0.4788,
"implied_prob": 0.3188,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1293,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.74,
"edge": 0.0243,
"market_prob": 0.3301,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1777,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0334,
"ev": -0.1407,
"implied_prob": 0.6699,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6365
},
"p_final": 0.3544,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.029,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1293,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"edge": 0.0243,
"ev": -0.029,
"implied_prob": 0.3301,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3544
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1967,
"ev": 0.6835,
"implied_prob": 0.3213,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1511394,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6835,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3335,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3705
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4788,
"implied_prob": 0.3188,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4788,
"implied_prob": 0.3188,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Qviding FIF",
"home": "\u00c5storp"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.247837,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6835,
"implied_prob": 0.3213,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2122,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4773,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5376344086021505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3109,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1511394,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T10:59:55.830414+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Åstorp & Qviding FIF!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Division 2 - Västra Götaland — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landvetter IS | 23 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 51 |
| 2 | Dalstorps IF | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 43 |
| 3 | Hestrafor | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 41 |
| 4 | Jonsered | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 39 |
| 5 | Lindome | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 34 |
| 6 | Böljan | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 34 |
| 7 | Västra Frölunda | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 8 | Qviding FIF | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 |
| 9 | Onsala | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 10 | Kongahälla | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 27 |
| 11 | Åstorp | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 26 |
| 12 | Torslanda | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 25 |
| 13 | Galtabacks | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 20 |
| 14 | Astrio | 23 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 9 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hestrafor | 23 | 48 | 38 | +10 | 41 |
| 2 | Dalstorps IF | 23 | 44 | 25 | +19 | 43 |
| 3 | Lindome | 23 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 34 |
| 4 | Västra Frölunda | 22 | 42 | 38 | +4 | 33 |
| 5 | Qviding FIF | 22 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 31 |
| 6 | Landvetter IS | 23 | 41 | 19 | +22 | 51 |
| 7 | Jonsered | 23 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 39 |
| 8 | Torslanda | 23 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 25 |
| 9 | Böljan | 23 | 36 | 31 | +5 | 34 |
| 10 | Galtabacks | 23 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 20 |
| 11 | Kongahälla | 23 | 35 | 43 | -8 | 27 |
| 12 | Onsala | 22 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 27 |
| 13 | Åstorp | 22 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 26 |
| 14 | Astrio | 23 | 21 | 56 | -35 | 9 |
