Nyköping vs Smedby Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "afp_away_win_prob": 0.3202,
      "afp_draw_prob": 0.282,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.3978,
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.26,
      "away_win_prob": 0.3202,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3202,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.455,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.282,
      "draw_prob_posterior": 0.282,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.12,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 3.12,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.55,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.55,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.51,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.51,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.34,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3978,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.3978,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Nyk\u00f6ping or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Nyk\u00f6ping"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.26,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Nyk\u00f6ping",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.0673,
        "edge_gap": 0.0778,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4655,
        "model_prob": 0.3982,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 32.0,
          "draw": 28.2,
          "home": 39.8
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.91
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.91,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Nyk\u00f6ping Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.15,
        "market_odds": 1.91,
        "model_odds": 2.51,
        "overround": 12.5,
        "prob_edge": -12.5,
        "value_pct": -23.9,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 3,
        "away_failed_to_score": 1,
        "away_played": 11,
        "away_score_rate": 71.6,
        "home_clean_sheet": 5,
        "home_failed_to_score": 1,
        "home_played": 11,
        "home_score_rate": 73.8,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 54.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.5
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.26,
        "home_expected": 1.34,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.5
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 10.0
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 9.4
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.4
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 7.9
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Nyk\u00f6ping or Draw",
            "prob": 68.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Nyk\u00f6ping or Smedby",
            "prob": 71.8
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Smedby",
            "prob": 60.2
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Nyk\u00f6ping or Smedby",
        "pick_prob": 71.8
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 32.0,
        "draw_pct": 28.2,
        "home_pct": 39.8,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Nyk\u00f6ping"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.5,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 2.0,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.6,
        "under_prob": 51.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 0.2,
        "implied_prob": 31.9,
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Smedby Win",
        "model_prob": 32.0,
        "odds": 3.13
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Smedby",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Nyk\u00f6ping",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 46.55,
          "gap_pp": -6.73,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 39.82
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 25.04,
          "gap_pp": 3.11,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 28.15
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 28.41,
          "gap_pp": 3.63,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 32.03
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 63.27,
          "gap_pp": -15.07,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 48.2
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 36.73,
          "gap_pp": 15.07,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 51.8
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.91,
          "early": 1.91,
          "implied_closing_pct": 46.55,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 46.55,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.55,
          "early": 3.55,
          "implied_closing_pct": 25.04,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 25.04,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.13,
          "early": 3.13,
          "implied_closing_pct": 28.41,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 28.41,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.44,
          "early": 1.44,
          "implied_closing_pct": 63.27,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 63.27,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.48,
          "early": 2.48,
          "implied_closing_pct": 36.73,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 36.73,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 15.1,
        "kind": "ou_u"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.5
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.34,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.3011,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -30.1,
          "text": "-30.1%"
        },
        "ev_under": 0.4245,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 42.4,
          "text": "+25%+"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.4245,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "sort_key": 10532.05,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 51.8,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.274,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 27.4,
          "text": "+25%+"
        },
        "ev_yes": -0.1825,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -18.2,
          "text": "-18.2%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.274,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "sort_key": 10246.6,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 54.5
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.1803,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -18.0,
          "text": "-18.0%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.4655,
        "max_ev": -0.0787,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -7.9,
          "text": "-7.9%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.3982,
        "side_label": "Nyk\u00f6ping",
        "sort_key": 1780.325,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.5,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.5
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "8/13",
        "alert_breadth_note": "8/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +11.5%",
        "alert_team": "Smedby",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 6.8,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -6.77,
        "hero_label": "Nyk\u00f6ping",
        "market_prob_pct": 46.5,
        "market_team": "Nyk\u00f6ping",
        "model_prob_pct": 39.8,
        "model_team": "Nyk\u00f6ping",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable prediction",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 60,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -6.77,
          "fair_prob": 39.78,
          "label": "Nyk\u00f6ping",
          "market_prob": 46.55,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 3.16,
          "fair_prob": 28.2,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 25.04,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 3.61,
          "fair_prob": 32.02,
          "label": "Smedby",
          "market_prob": 28.41,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -15.7,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 63.9,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 15.7,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 36.1,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -10.57,
          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 65.07,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 10.57,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 34.93,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -6.77,
        "fair_prob_pct": 39.78,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Nyk\u00f6ping",
        "market_prob_pct": 46.55,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Smedby"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 6.77,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Nyk\u00f6ping",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
          "market_prob_pct": 46.5,
          "model_prob_pct": 39.8,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "Both lean Nyk\u00f6ping, but the market prices them higher (46.5% vs model 39.8%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -6.77,
        "hero_label": "Nyk\u00f6ping",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Smedby odds lengthened \u2191 +11.5%.",
        "market_agreement": "moderate",
        "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Smedby has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Nyk\u00f6ping. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
          "note": "Drift away from Smedby \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.5% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model broadly agree on Nyk\u00f6ping. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
            "However, Smedby has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Smedby \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.5% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market still prices Nyk\u00f6ping above the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Smedby has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.5%, suggesting weakening support."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 6.77,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.8 pp (at 39.8%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 7.8,
          "max_prob_pct": 39.8,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -6.77,
            "fair_prob_pct": 39.78,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Nyk\u00f6ping",
            "market_prob_pct": 46.55,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 3.16,
            "fair_prob_pct": 28.2,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 25.04,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 3.61,
            "fair_prob_pct": 32.02,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Smedby",
            "market_prob_pct": 28.41,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Smedby \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.5% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Nyk\u00f6ping (46.5%).",
          "However, Smedby has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +11.5%, 8/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Nyk\u00f6ping, Market \u2192 Nyk\u00f6ping, Recent sharp money \u2192 Smedby.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 52.36,
        "closing_odds": 1.91,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 52.36,
        "entry_odds": 1.91,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 8,
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "8/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.9,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +11.5%",
        "move_pct_abs": 11.5,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 44m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Smedby (11.5%, 8/13) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.24 \u2192 2.60 \u2192 2.90",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 44m",
          "pick_team": "Smedby",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.24"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.60"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.90"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,7.8",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.6,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Smedby \u2191 +11.5% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Smedby",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Smedby \u2191 +11.5% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 60,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "8/13",
        "current_odds": 2.9,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +11.5%",
        "open_odds": 2.6,
        "pick_team": "Smedby",
        "steam_score": 60,
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          "side_label": "Nyk\u00f6ping"
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          "value_side": "no"
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          "value_side": "under"
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}