Räppe vs Oskarshamns AIK Statistics & Analysis

Jun 12, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.28
0 1.32
xG Accuracy: 64%
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay

Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian

Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.

  • Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
  • Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
  • Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
  • 1X2 Oskarshamns AIK Räppe ✖ Không đúng
  • Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Chính xác

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1519645

Closing Odds 1.91
AI Fair Odds
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Räppe win · Räppe 1–0 Oskarshamns AIK
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Thông tin thị trường

Đọc bổ sung sau lựa chọn chính: feed đóng kèo ưu tiên đã thay đổi so với mô hình thế nào.

Tóm tắt thị trường

Thị trường khá ổn định trước giờ bóng lăn. Không thấy dịch chuyển implied đáng kể giữa PRE30 và PRE1 trên snapshot ưu tiên.

Dù biến động muộn hạn chế, mô hình vẫn định giá Räppe (1X2),Vẽ tranh (1X2),Dưới 2,5 bàn cao hơn rõ rệt so với implied từ các snapshot đóng kèo — đây là bức tranh tĩnh «mô hình so với giá», không phải câu chuyện đuổi dòng muộn.

Mô hình vẫn cao hơn implied đóng kèo ở Dưới 2,5 bàn khoảng 10.7 điểm phần trăm — tín hiệu lệch giá rõ nhất trên trang này.

Mô hình so với xác suất ngầm lúc đóng kèo

Thị trường Mô hình % Ngầm đóng kèo % Chênh (pp)
Räppe (1X2) 34.2 27.5 +6.7
Vẽ tranh (1X2) 29.7 27.0 +2.7
Oskarshamns AIK (1X2) 36.1 45.5 -9.4
Trên 2,5 bàn 48.2 58.9 -10.7
Dưới 2,5 bàn 51.8 41.1 +10.7
Ý nghĩa đơn giản

Nói dễ hiểu: mô hình khoảng 51.8% cho Dưới 2,5 bàn, trong khi snapshot đóng kèo ngầm khoảng 41.1%. Chênh lệch — khoảng 10.7 điểm phần trăm — là khoảng cách mô hình–thị trường lớn nhất được nhấn mạnh trên trang này.

Giải thích nhanh: «ngầm đóng kèo» là xác suất suy ra từ kèo chụp cuối (sau khi bỏ vig đơn giản). «Chênh (pp)» = % mô hình trừ % ngầm đó, tính theo điểm phần trăm (pp).

Biến động kèo trước giờ bóng lăn

Một nhà cái ưu tiên mỗi snapshot (không phải toàn thị trường). Đường dẫn chụp: PRE30 → PRE1 · Nhà cái: Pinnacle

Trong ngoặc trên cột: Closing = snapshot đầu tiên khả dụng theo PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early = snapshot đầu tiên trong PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 khác Closing.

Kèo chi tiết được gấp bên dưới — biến động implied (đã bỏ vig) không đáng kể.

Xem bảng đầy đủ từng dòng
Thị trường Sớm (PRE30) Sát giờ (PRE1) Δ ngầm (pp)
Räppe (1X2) 3.16 3.16 0.0
Vẽ tranh (1X2) 3.22 3.22 0.0
Oskarshamns AIK (1X2) 1.91 1.91 0.0
Trên 2,5 bàn 1.53 1.53 0.0
Dưới 2,5 bàn 2.19 2.19 0.0

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          "market_prob": 39.56,
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          "outcome": "no"
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        "edge_pp": -9.39,
        "fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Oskarshamns AIK",
        "market_prob_pct": 45.5,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "R\u00e4ppe"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 9.39,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Oskarshamns AIK",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
          "market_prob_pct": 45.5,
          "model_prob_pct": 36.1,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "Both lean Oskarshamns AIK, but the market prices them higher (45.5% vs model 36.1%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -9.39,
        "hero_label": "Oskarshamns AIK",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "R\u00e4ppe odds shortened \u2193 -13.2%.",
        "market_agreement": "moderate",
        "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on R\u00e4ppe, with odds shortening by 13.2%.",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Oskarshamns AIK. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
          "note": "Buying interest on R\u00e4ppe \u2014 odds shortened by 13.2%.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model broadly agree on Oskarshamns AIK. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
            "However, recent buying interest has been on R\u00e4ppe, with odds shortening by 13.2%.",
            "Buying interest on R\u00e4ppe \u2014 odds shortened by 13.2%."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market still prices Oskarshamns AIK above the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, R\u00e4ppe has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 13.2%.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (11/13) supports the current market view on R\u00e4ppe."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 9.39,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 36.1,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 6.74,
            "fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "R\u00e4ppe",
            "market_prob_pct": 27.5,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 2.66,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 26.99,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -9.39,
            "fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Oskarshamns AIK",
            "market_prob_pct": 45.5,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Buying interest on R\u00e4ppe \u2014 odds shortened by 13.2%.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Oskarshamns AIK (45.5%).",
          "However, R\u00e4ppe has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -13.2%, 11/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Oskarshamns AIK, Market \u2192 Oskarshamns AIK, Recent sharp money \u2192 R\u00e4ppe.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 52.36,
        "closing_odds": 1.91,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 52.36,
        "entry_odds": 1.91,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 11,
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "11/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.3,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -13.2%",
        "move_pct_abs": 13.2,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on R\u00e4ppe (13.2%, 11/13) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "4.02 \u2192 3.14 \u2192 3.30",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
          "pick_team": "R\u00e4ppe",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "4.02"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.14"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.30"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,14.1",
          "sparkline_trend": "down",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.8,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: R\u00e4ppe \u2193 -13.2% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "R\u00e4ppe",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: R\u00e4ppe \u2193 -13.2% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 70,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "11/13",
        "current_odds": 3.3,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -13.2%",
        "open_odds": 3.8,
        "pick_team": "R\u00e4ppe",
        "steam_score": 70,
        "steam_team_name": "R\u00e4ppe",
        "steam_tier": "A"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 9.4,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 6692,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6692.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Oskarshamns AIK",
      "country_code": "SE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
      "country_name": "Sweden",
      "fixture_id": 1510958,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Sweden",
      "home_team_id": 12617,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12617.webp",
      "home_team_name": "R\u00e4ppe",
      "league_country": "Sweden",
      "league_id": 597,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/597.webp",
      "league_name": "Division 2 - S\u00f6dra G\u00f6taland",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-12 17:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.5153,
            "best_odd": 1.91,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0485,
            "ev": -0.2235,
            "implied_prob": 0.455,
            "model_prob": 0.3609,
            "p_final": 0.4065
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.288,
            "best_odd": 3.22,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0077,
            "ev": -0.1061,
            "implied_prob": 0.2699,
            "model_prob": 0.2967,
            "p_final": 0.2776
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2697,
            "best_odd": 3.16,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0182,
            "ev": -0.0735,
            "implied_prob": 0.275,
            "model_prob": 0.3424,
            "p_final": 0.2932
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.5,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.67,
          "edge_no": 0.0594,
          "edge_yes": -0.0594,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.1375,
          "ev_yes": -0.0898,
          "implied_no": 0.3956,
          "implied_yes": 0.6044,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.61,
          "best_under_odd": 2.3,
          "edge_over": -0.1034,
          "edge_under": 0.1034,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.224,
          "ev_under": 0.1914,
          "implied_over": 0.5854,
          "implied_under": 0.4146,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1914,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.2967,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.04
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0485,
          "ev": -0.2235,
          "implied_prob": 0.455,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.3609,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Oskarshamns AIK"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0594,
          "ev": 0.1375,
          "implied_prob": 0.3956,
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1034,
          "ev": 0.1914,
          "implied_prob": 0.4146,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1510958,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1914,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3609,
        "draw": 0.2967,
        "home": 0.3424
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1375,
        "implied_prob": 0.3956,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.455,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1375,
          "implied_prob": 0.3956,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "no",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Oskarshamns AIK",
        "home": "R\u00e4ppe"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.069402,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1914,
        "implied_prob": 0.4146,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1510958,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T16:59:23.399457+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Räppe & Oskarshamns AIK!

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Division 2 - Södra Götaland Division 2 - Södra GötalandBảng xếp hạng
# Đội Tr T H B Đ
1 Karlskrona 21 16 3 2 51
2 Oskarshamns AIK 21 13 3 5 42
3 IFK Trelleborg 21 12 5 4 41
4 Berga 21 10 4 7 34
5 Linero 21 11 1 9 34
6 Växjö Norra 21 9 6 6 33
7 Nosaby 21 9 5 7 32
8 Österlen 21 8 4 9 28
9 Lilla Torg 21 6 8 7 26
10 Sölvesborg 21 8 1 12 25
11 Staffanstorp United 21 5 7 9 22
12 Torns 20 6 0 14 18
13 Räppe 21 3 5 13 14
14 Karlshamn 20 3 2 15 11
# Đội Tr BT BB +/- Đ
1 Karlskrona 21 55 19 +36 51
2 Oskarshamns AIK 21 55 24 +31 42
3 Berga 21 43 32 +11 34
4 IFK Trelleborg 21 41 19 +22 41
5 Nosaby 21 39 37 +2 32
6 Linero 21 37 36 +1 34
7 Österlen 21 32 33 -1 28
8 Sölvesborg 21 31 36 -5 25
9 Staffanstorp United 21 31 36 -5 22
10 Växjö Norra 21 30 30 0 33
11 Torns 20 27 56 -29 18
12 Lilla Torg 21 26 33 -7 26
13 Räppe 21 22 49 -27 14
14 Karlshamn 20 21 50 -29 11