Räppe vs Oskarshamns AIK Statistics & Analysis

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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Winner : Oskarshamns AIK",
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      "percent_draw": "50%",
      "percent_home": "0%",
      "winner_name": "Oskarshamns AIK"
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          "away": 36.1,
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        {
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        "best_odds": 1.91,
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        "market_odds": 1.91,
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      "btts": {
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        "away_played": 11,
        "away_score_rate": 73.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 1,
        "home_failed_to_score": 3,
        "home_played": 11,
        "home_score_rate": 72.2,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 54.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
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            "away": 1,
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          {
            "away": 1,
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            "away": 1,
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
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          },
          {
            "key": "12",
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          {
            "key": "X2",
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        "lean_label": "Oskarshamns AIK"
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        "model_prob": 34.2,
        "odds": 3.16
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Oskarshamns AIK",
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      "home_team": "R\u00e4ppe",
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          "closing_implied_pct": 26.99,
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          "closing": 3.16,
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          "raw_pct": -22.4,
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          "raw_pct": 19.1,
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          "text": "+13.8%"
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        "alert_breadth": "11/13",
        "alert_breadth_note": "11/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2193 -13.2%",
        "alert_team": "R\u00e4ppe",
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        "model_prob_pct": 36.1,
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        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
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        "status_label": "Reliable forecast",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 70,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
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          "edge_pp": 6.74,
          "fair_prob": 34.24,
          "label": "R\u00e4ppe",
          "market_prob": 27.5,
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          "outcome": "home"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 2.66,
          "fair_prob": 29.65,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 26.99,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -9.39,
          "fair_prob": 36.11,
          "label": "Oskarshamns AIK",
          "market_prob": 45.5,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -10.34,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 58.54,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 10.34,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 41.46,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -5.94,
          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 60.44,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 5.94,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 39.56,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -9.39,
        "fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Oskarshamns AIK",
        "market_prob_pct": 45.5,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "R\u00e4ppe"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 9.39,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Oskarshamns AIK",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
          "market_prob_pct": 45.5,
          "model_prob_pct": 36.1,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "Both lean Oskarshamns AIK, but the market prices them higher (45.5% vs model 36.1%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -9.39,
        "hero_label": "Oskarshamns AIK",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "R\u00e4ppe odds shortened \u2193 -13.2%.",
        "market_agreement": "moderate",
        "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on R\u00e4ppe, with odds shortening by 13.2%.",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Oskarshamns AIK. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
          "note": "Buying interest on R\u00e4ppe \u2014 odds shortened by 13.2%.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model broadly agree on Oskarshamns AIK. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
            "However, recent buying interest has been on R\u00e4ppe, with odds shortening by 13.2%.",
            "Buying interest on R\u00e4ppe \u2014 odds shortened by 13.2%."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market still prices Oskarshamns AIK above the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, R\u00e4ppe has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 13.2%.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (11/13) supports the current market view on R\u00e4ppe."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 9.39,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 36.1,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 6.74,
            "fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "R\u00e4ppe",
            "market_prob_pct": 27.5,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 2.66,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 26.99,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -9.39,
            "fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Oskarshamns AIK",
            "market_prob_pct": 45.5,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Buying interest on R\u00e4ppe \u2014 odds shortened by 13.2%.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Oskarshamns AIK (45.5%).",
          "However, R\u00e4ppe has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -13.2%, 11/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Oskarshamns AIK, Market \u2192 Oskarshamns AIK, Recent sharp money \u2192 R\u00e4ppe.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 52.36,
        "closing_odds": 1.91,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 52.36,
        "entry_odds": 1.91,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 11,
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "11/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.3,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -13.2%",
        "move_pct_abs": 13.2,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on R\u00e4ppe (13.2%, 11/13) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "4.02 \u2192 3.14 \u2192 3.30",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
          "pick_team": "R\u00e4ppe",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "4.02"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.14"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.30"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,14.1",
          "sparkline_trend": "down",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.8,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: R\u00e4ppe \u2193 -13.2% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "R\u00e4ppe",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: R\u00e4ppe \u2193 -13.2% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 70,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "11/13",
        "current_odds": 3.3,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -13.2%",
        "open_odds": 3.8,
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          "CLV tracking",
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          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.04
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        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Oskarshamns AIK"
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          "value_side": "under"
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}