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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Dila Gori Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.92
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Dila Gori 2–2 Dinamo Batumi
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "fc236c9eba297e6e8a1bc947fb0d777e774fe4ccb223564e4f7443009c80086d",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.09,
"away_win_prob": 0.2579,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.467,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.533,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2888,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.88,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.46,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.21,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.51,
"home_win_prob": 0.4533,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Dila Gori or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Dila Gori",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Dila Gori"
},
"away_xg": 1.09,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Dila Gori",
"confidence": 45.3,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Dila Gori",
"edge": 0.139,
"edge_gap": 0.1636,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3138,
"model_prob": 0.4528,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 25.8,
"draw": 28.9,
"home": 45.3
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Dila Gori"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.92
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.92,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Dila Gori Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.19,
"market_odds": 2.92,
"model_odds": 2.21,
"overround": 9.1,
"prob_edge": 11.0,
"value_pct": 32.1,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 6,
"away_played": 24,
"away_score_rate": 66.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 23,
"home_score_rate": 77.9,
"no_prob": 46.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 53.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 53.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.09,
"home_expected": 1.51,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Dila Gori or Draw",
"prob": 74.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Dila Gori or Dinamo Batumi",
"prob": 71.1
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Dinamo Batumi",
"prob": 54.7
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Dila Gori or Draw",
"pick_prob": 74.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 25.8,
"draw_pct": 28.9,
"home_pct": 45.3,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Dila Gori"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 32.3,
"implied_prob": 34.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Dila Gori Win",
"model_prob": 45.3,
"odds": 2.92
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Dinamo Batumi",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 37.87,
"draw": 30.75,
"home": 31.38
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 13:57:00",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 13:30:51",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Dila Gori",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.38,
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 45.28
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.75,
"gap_pp": -1.83,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 28.92
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.87,
"gap_pp": -12.07,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 25.79
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.08,
"gap_pp": -0.88,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.92,
"gap_pp": 0.88,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.92,
"early": 2.92,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.38,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.38,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.98,
"early": 2.98,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.75,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.75,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.42,
"early": 2.42,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.87,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.87,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.93,
"early": 1.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.08,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.86,
"early": 1.86,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.92,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.92,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -3.2,
"ev": -0.207,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.122,
"model_prob_pct": 12.2,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.51,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Dila Gori, but the model still strongly favours Dila Gori.",
"consensus_odds": 2.92,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0609,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.1,
"text": "+6.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3138,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0609,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.1,
"text": "+6.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4528,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3222,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Dila Gori",
"sort_key": 10204.81,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2299,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0041,
"edge_pp": 0.4,
"market_prob": 0.5,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2299,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0041,
"ev": -0.0827,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4959
},
"p_final": 0.5041,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0417,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0673,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2299,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0041,
"ev": -0.0673,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5041
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0697,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.0,
"text": "-7.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0003,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.0,
"text": "-0.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.0003,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 4049.958,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2174,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0049,
"edge_pp": 0.5,
"market_prob": 0.4444,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.467,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2174,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0049,
"ev": -0.0788,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.467,
"p_final": 0.4493
},
"p_final": 0.4493,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0427,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0788,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2391,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0054,
"ev": -0.0977,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.533,
"p_final": 0.5502
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0193,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.9,
"text": "-1.9%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1099,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.0,
"text": "-11.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0193,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 46.7,
"sort_key": 1795.175,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 53.3
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"alert_team": "Dila Gori",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.95,
"hero_label": "Dila Gori",
"market_prob_pct": 31.4,
"market_team": "Dinamo Batumi",
"model_prob_pct": 45.3,
"model_team": "Dila Gori",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Dila Gori, but the model still strongly favours Dila Gori."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Dila Gori, but the model still strongly favours Dila Gori."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0609,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3223,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dila Gori at 45.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dila Gori as the value side (45.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Dila Gori, but the model still strongly favours Dila Gori.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dila Gori",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Dila Gori \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.92 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +32% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1509183 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.92 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Dila Gori, but the model still strongly favours Dila Gori.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +32% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Dila Gori, but the model still strongly favours Dila Gori.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0609,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3138,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4528,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3424657534246575,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3222,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.42"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.42
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5454545454545454,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.5,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 56,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.95,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.95,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.09,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.51,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.51,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.51 \u00b7 Away xG 1.09 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +12%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"steam_team": "Dila Gori",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Dila Gori, but the model still strongly favours Dila Gori.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Dila Gori, but the model still strongly favours Dila Gori."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Dila Gori, but the model still strongly favours Dila Gori."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0609,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3223,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dila Gori at 45.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dila Gori as the value side (45.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Dila Gori, but the model still strongly favours Dila Gori.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dila Gori",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Dila Gori \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.92 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +32% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1509183 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.92 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Dila Gori, but the model still strongly favours Dila Gori.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +32% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Dila Gori, but the model still strongly favours Dila Gori.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0609,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3138,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4528,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3424657534246575,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3222,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.42"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.42
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Dila Gori, but the model still strongly favours Dila Gori.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Dila Gori 1.51 xG vs Dinamo Batumi 1.09 \u2192 Dila Gori 45.3%",
"Market: Dinamo Batumi ~31.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Dila Gori odds \u2191 +6.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Dila Gori, but the market has moved away from Dila Gori.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 13.95,
"fair_prob": 45.33,
"label": "Dila Gori",
"market_prob": 31.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.87,
"fair_prob": 28.88,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.08,
"fair_prob": 25.79,
"label": "Dinamo Batumi",
"market_prob": 37.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.17,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 50.37,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.17,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 49.63,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.56,
"fair_prob": 53.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.86,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.56,
"fair_prob": 46.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.14,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 13.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.33,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Dila Gori",
"market_prob_pct": 31.38,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Dila Gori"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Dila Gori\u0027s win probability at 45.3%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 31.4%, a difference of 13.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 13.95,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Dila Gori",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 13.9,
"model_prob_pct": 45.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 56,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Dila Gori, but the model still strongly favours Dila Gori. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Dila Gori 1.51 xG vs Dinamo Batumi 1.09 \u2192 Dila Gori 45.3%",
"Market: Dinamo Batumi ~31.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Dila Gori odds \u2191 +6.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Dila Gori, but the market has moved away from Dila Gori.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.95,
"hero_label": "Dila Gori",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Dila Gori odds lengthened \u2191 +6.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Dila Gori.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Dila Gori.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Dila Gori.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Dila Gori."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Dila Gori more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Dila Gori (\u2191 +6.1%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.95,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 16.4 pp (at 45.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 16.4,
"max_prob_pct": 45.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Dila Gori",
"largest_gap_pp": 13.9,
"lead": "The model rates Dila Gori considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 13.95,
"edge_pp": 13.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.33,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Dila Gori",
"market_prob_pct": 31.38,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.87,
"edge_pp": -1.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.88,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.75,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -12.08,
"edge_pp": -12.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.79,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Dinamo Batumi",
"market_prob_pct": 37.87,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Dila Gori.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Dinamo Batumi (31.4%).",
"Dila Gori odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.1%, 6/11) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Dila Gori, Market \u2192 Dinamo Batumi, while Dila Gori odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 34.25,
"closing_odds": 2.92,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.25,
"entry_odds": 2.92,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +41.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 41.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +32.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 32.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.5
}
],
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "6/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Dila Gori (swing 2.92 \u2192 1.99 \u2192 2.60) \u2014 net 6.1% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.92",
"2.69",
"2.45"
],
"display": "2.92 \u2192 1.99 \u2192 2.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 59m",
"pick_team": "Dila Gori",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.92"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.99"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.45,
2.92,
2.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,12.3",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.92"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.45,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Dila Gori",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"summary": "Market moved away from Dila Gori while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Dila Gori",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/11",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"pick_team": "Dila Gori",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_team_name": "Dila Gori",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "dinamo-batumi",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Dinamo Batumi",
"away_team_id": 705,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/705.webp",
"away_team_name": "Dinamo Batumi",
"away_team_public_id": "3fTQy5xFwVRGR1",
"away_team_slug": "dinamo-batumi",
"country_code": "GE",
"country_display_name": "Georgia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ge.svg",
"country_id": 59,
"country_name": "Georgia",
"fixture_id": 1509183,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Georgia",
"home_team_display_name": "Dila Gori",
"home_team_id": 3499,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3499.webp",
"home_team_name": "Dila Gori",
"home_team_public_id": "1q255sDoVFeNls",
"home_team_slug": "dila",
"ht.home_team_slug": "dila",
"league_country": "Georgia",
"league_country_display": "Georgia",
"league_display_name": "Erovnuli Liga",
"league_id": 327,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/327.webp",
"league_name": "Erovnuli Liga",
"league_public_id": "3f0ezu4fR8JJ1P",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 14:00:00",
"public_id": "5oMCfNoF0rROyE",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Gori",
"venue_name": "Tengiz Burjanadze Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3685,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0445,
"ev": -0.1913,
"implied_prob": 0.3787,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3787,
"draw": 0.3075,
"home": 0.3138
},
"model_prob": 0.2579,
"p_final": 0.3342
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4377,
"best_odd": 2.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.1075,
"implied_prob": 0.3075,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3787,
"draw": 0.3075,
"home": 0.3138
},
"model_prob": 0.2892,
"p_final": 0.2995
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3562,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0495,
"ev": 0.0609,
"implied_prob": 0.3138,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3787,
"draw": 0.3075,
"home": 0.3138
},
"model_prob": 0.4528,
"p_final": 0.3633
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": -0.1553,
"ev": -0.3758,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.2579
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.98,
"edge": -0.0463,
"ev": -0.1381,
"implied_prob": 0.3356,
"model_prob": 0.2892
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": 0.1104,
"ev": 0.3223,
"implied_prob": 0.3425,
"model_prob": 0.4528
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2174,
"alpha_yes": 0.2391,
"best_no_odd": 2.1,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0256,
"edge_yes": -0.0256,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0193,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0788,
"ev_yes": -0.1099,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0977,
"implied_no": 0.4414,
"implied_yes": 0.5586,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2174,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0049,
"ev": -0.0788,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.467,
"p_final": 0.4493
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2391,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0054,
"ev": -0.0977,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.533,
"p_final": 0.5502
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4493,
"p_final_yes": 0.5502,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2299,
"alpha_under": 0.2299,
"best_over_odd": 1.93,
"best_under_odd": 1.93,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.85,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.85,
"edge_over": -0.0217,
"edge_under": 0.0217,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0697,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0827,
"ev_under": -0.0003,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0673,
"implied_over": 0.5037,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5,
"implied_under": 0.4963,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2299,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0041,
"ev": -0.0827,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4959
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2299,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0041,
"ev": -0.0673,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5041
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4959,
"p_final_under": 0.5041,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0609,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3223,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0609,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Dila Gori, but the model still strongly favours Dila Gori."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0609,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3223,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dila Gori at 45.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dila Gori as the value side (45.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Dila Gori, but the model still strongly favours Dila Gori.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dila Gori",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Dila Gori \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.92 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +32% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1509183 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.92 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Dila Gori, but the model still strongly favours Dila Gori.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +32% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Dila Gori, but the model still strongly favours Dila Gori.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0609,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3138,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4528,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3424657534246575,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3222,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.42"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
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"xg_separation": {
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}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2892,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4528,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
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},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"side": "home",
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},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
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},
"p_final": 0.4493,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0788,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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},
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},
"ou_2_5": {
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"over": {
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}
},
"match_id": 1509183,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
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"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0609,
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"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
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"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Dinamo Batumi",
"home": "Dila Gori"
},
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"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
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"slot": "primary",
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},
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"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "+6.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3138,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4528,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3424657534246575,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3222,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1509183,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T13:57:01.960766+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Dila Gori & Dinamo Batumi!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Erovnuli Liga — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rustavi | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 43 |
| 2 | Dinamo Batumi | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 43 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 24 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 39 |
| 4 | Saburtalo | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 37 |
| 5 | Dila Gori | 24 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 36 |
| 6 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 33 |
| 7 | Samgurali | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 32 |
| 8 | Gagra | 25 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 28 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 25 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 25 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 16 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Batumi | 25 | 41 | 32 | +9 | 43 |
| 2 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 25 | 38 | 29 | +9 | 33 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 24 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 39 |
| 4 | Samgurali | 25 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 32 |
| 5 | Spaeri | 25 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 25 |
| 6 | Saburtalo | 23 | 32 | 27 | +5 | 37 |
| 7 | Rustavi | 25 | 31 | 21 | +10 | 43 |
| 8 | Dila Gori | 24 | 31 | 25 | +6 | 36 |
| 9 | Gagra | 25 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 28 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 25 | 19 | 42 | -23 | 16 |
