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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Orlando Pride W Orlando Pride W ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-2, 2-2, 1-1, 2-1, 1-3 1-3 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.82
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Orlando Pride W win · Bay FC 1–3 Orlando Pride W
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 2.16,
"away_win_prob": 0.446,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.244,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.756,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2232,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.24,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.48,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.02,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.86,
"home_win_prob": 0.3308,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.765,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.235
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Orlando Pride W",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Orlando Pride W"
},
"away_xg": 2.16,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Orlando Pride W",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1214,
"edge_gap": 0.1152,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3247,
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 44.6,
"draw": 22.3,
"home": 33.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.82
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.82,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Orlando Pride W Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.08,
"market_odds": 2.82,
"model_odds": 2.24,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": 9.2,
"value_pct": 25.9,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 25,
"away_score_rate": 88.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 10,
"home_played": 24,
"home_score_rate": 84.4,
"no_prob": 24.4,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 75.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 75.6
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 2.16,
"home_expected": 1.86,
"scores": [
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 6.7
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Bay FC or Draw",
"prob": 55.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Bay FC or Orlando Pride W",
"prob": 77.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Orlando Pride W",
"prob": 66.9
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Bay FC or Orlando Pride W",
"pick_prob": 77.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 44.6,
"draw_pct": 22.3,
"home_pct": 33.1,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Orlando Pride W"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 4.02,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 76.5,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 76.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 4.02,
"under_prob": 23.5
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 25.9,
"implied_prob": 35.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Orlando Pride W Win",
"model_prob": 44.6,
"odds": 2.82
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Orlando Pride W",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 32.47,
"draw": 26.09,
"home": 41.44
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 20:59:24",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 20:30:21",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Bay FC",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.44,
"gap_pp": -8.35,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.09,
"gap_pp": -3.79,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 22.3
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.47,
"gap_pp": 12.14,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 44.61
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.59,
"gap_pp": 17.91,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 76.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.41,
"gap_pp": -17.91,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 23.5
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.21,
"early": 2.21,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.44,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.51,
"early": 3.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.09,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.09,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.82,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.59,
"early": 1.59,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.59,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.59,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.25,
"early": 2.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.41,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 17.9,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.5,
"ev": -0.064,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-2",
"market_odds": 12.0,
"market_prob": 0.0833,
"market_prob_pct": 8.3,
"model_prob": 0.078,
"model_prob_pct": 7.8,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 6.7
},
{
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.86,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1787,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.58,
"edge": 0.0331,
"edge_pp": 3.3,
"market_prob": 0.5798,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1787,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": 0.0331,
"ev": -0.0316,
"implied_prob": 0.5798,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"p_final": 0.6129
},
"p_final": 0.6129,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2087,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0316,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1625,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": -0.0301,
"ev": -0.1495,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.3901
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2622,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 26.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.4713,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -47.1,
"text": "-47.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2622,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 76.5,
"sort_key": 10385.98,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 23.5,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.191,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.49,
"edge": 0.0291,
"edge_pp": 2.9,
"market_prob": 0.6037,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.756,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1389,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": -0.0211,
"ev": -0.1485,
"implied_prob": 0.3963,
"model_prob": 0.244,
"p_final": 0.3751
},
"p_final": 0.6328,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1264,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0571,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.191,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": 0.0291,
"ev": -0.0571,
"implied_prob": 0.6037,
"model_prob": 0.756,
"p_final": 0.6328
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4144,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -41.4,
"text": "-41.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2247,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 22.5,
"text": "+22.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2247,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 24.4,
"sort_key": 10202.23,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 75.6
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Orlando Pride W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0417,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.2,
"text": "+4.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3247,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0417,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.2,
"text": "+4.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Orlando Pride W",
"sort_key": 10037.53,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 803.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-2",
"top_prob": 7.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"alert_team": "Orlando Pride W",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 12.13,
"hero_label": "Orlando Pride W",
"market_prob_pct": 32.5,
"market_team": "Bay FC",
"model_prob_pct": 44.6,
"model_team": "Orlando Pride W",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Orlando Pride W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Orlando Pride W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2622,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2622,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Orlando Pride W at 44.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Orlando Pride W as the value side (44.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Orlando Pride W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Orlando Pride W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Orlando Pride W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Orlando Pride W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0417,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3247,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3546099290780142,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 60.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 60%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (60%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 52,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.13,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.13,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.16,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 60.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 1.86,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.16,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 1.86 \u00b7 Away xG 2.16 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +60%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.2,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"steam_team": "Orlando Pride W",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Orlando Pride W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Orlando Pride W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Orlando Pride W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2622,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2622,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Orlando Pride W at 44.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Orlando Pride W as the value side (44.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Orlando Pride W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Orlando Pride W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Orlando Pride W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Orlando Pride W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0417,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3247,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3546099290780142,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 60.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 60%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Orlando Pride W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bay FC 1.86 xG vs Orlando Pride W 2.16 \u2192 Orlando Pride W 44.6%",
"Market: Bay FC ~32.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Orlando Pride W odds \u2191 +10.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Orlando Pride W, but the market has moved away from Orlando Pride W.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.36,
"fair_prob": 33.08,
"label": "Bay FC",
"market_prob": 41.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.77,
"fair_prob": 22.32,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.13,
"fair_prob": 44.6,
"label": "Orlando Pride W",
"market_prob": 32.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 18.91,
"fair_prob": 76.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.59,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -18.91,
"fair_prob": 23.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.41,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.18,
"fair_prob": 75.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.42,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.18,
"fair_prob": 24.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.58,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 12.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.6,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Orlando Pride W",
"market_prob_pct": 32.47,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Orlando Pride W"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Orlando Pride W\u0027s win probability at 44.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 32.5%, a difference of 12.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 12.13,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Orlando Pride W",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+12.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 12.1,
"model_prob_pct": 44.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+12.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 52,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Orlando Pride W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bay FC 1.86 xG vs Orlando Pride W 2.16 \u2192 Orlando Pride W 44.6%",
"Market: Bay FC ~32.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Orlando Pride W odds \u2191 +10.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Orlando Pride W, but the market has moved away from Orlando Pride W.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 12.13,
"hero_label": "Orlando Pride W",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Orlando Pride W odds lengthened \u2191 +10.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Orlando Pride W.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Orlando Pride W.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Orlando Pride W.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Orlando Pride W."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Orlando Pride W more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Orlando Pride W (\u2191 +10.2%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.13,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.5 pp (at 44.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.5,
"max_prob_pct": 44.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Orlando Pride W",
"largest_gap_pp": 12.1,
"lead": "The model rates Orlando Pride W considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.36,
"edge_pp": -8.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.08,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bay FC",
"market_prob_pct": 41.44,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.77,
"edge_pp": -3.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.32,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.09,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 12.13,
"edge_pp": 12.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.6,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Orlando Pride W",
"market_prob_pct": 32.47,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Orlando Pride W.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Bay FC (32.5%).",
"Orlando Pride W odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.2%, 5/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Orlando Pride W, Market \u2192 Bay FC, while Orlando Pride W odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.46,
"closing_odds": 2.82,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.46,
"entry_odds": 2.82,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 49h 40m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Orlando Pride W (10.2%, 5/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.82",
"2.63",
"2.45"
],
"display": "2.85 \u2192 2.45 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 49h 40m",
"pick_team": "Orlando Pride W",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.85"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.45,
2.82,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.82"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.45,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Orlando Pride W",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"summary": "Market moved away from Orlando Pride W while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Orlando Pride W",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"pick_team": "Orlando Pride W",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_team_name": "Orlando Pride W",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "orlando-pride-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Orlando Pride W",
"away_team_id": 3000,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3000.webp",
"away_team_name": "Orlando Pride W",
"away_team_public_id": "402y06UfzoI54q",
"away_team_slug": "orlando-pride-w",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1508562,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Bay FC",
"home_team_id": 22943,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/22943.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bay FC",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Bay FC",
"home_team_public_id": "3ticbKbERpOVdx",
"home_team_slug": "bay-fc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "bay-fc",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i NWSL N\u1eef",
"league_id": 254,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/254.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i NWSL N\u1eef",
"league_public_id": "2ZcWd6nHxKtiNe",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 21:00:00",
"public_id": "4be0Cj0lcXfrLm",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "PayPal Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3681,
"best_odd": 2.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0447,
"ev": 0.0417,
"implied_prob": 0.3247,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3247,
"draw": 0.2609,
"home": 0.4144
},
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"p_final": 0.3694
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.283,
"best_odd": 3.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.1218,
"implied_prob": 0.2609,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3247,
"draw": 0.2609,
"home": 0.4144
},
"model_prob": 0.223,
"p_final": 0.2502
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3936,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0329,
"ev": -0.1569,
"implied_prob": 0.4144,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3247,
"draw": 0.2609,
"home": 0.4144
},
"model_prob": 0.3309,
"p_final": 0.3815
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.82,
"edge": 0.0915,
"ev": 0.258,
"implied_prob": 0.3546,
"model_prob": 0.4461
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.51,
"edge": -0.0619,
"ev": -0.2171,
"implied_prob": 0.2849,
"model_prob": 0.223
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": -0.1216,
"ev": -0.2688,
"implied_prob": 0.4525,
"model_prob": 0.3309
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1389,
"alpha_yes": 0.191,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1518,
"edge_yes": 0.1518,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4144,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1485,
"ev_yes": 0.2247,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0571,
"implied_no": 0.3958,
"implied_yes": 0.6042,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1389,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": -0.0211,
"ev": -0.1485,
"implied_prob": 0.3963,
"model_prob": 0.244,
"p_final": 0.3751
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.191,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": 0.0291,
"ev": -0.0571,
"implied_prob": 0.6037,
"model_prob": 0.756,
"p_final": 0.6328
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.3751,
"p_final_yes": 0.6328,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1787,
"alpha_under": 0.1625,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.25,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.58,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.18,
"edge_over": 0.1891,
"edge_under": -0.1891,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2622,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0316,
"ev_under": -0.4713,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1495,
"implied_over": 0.5759,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5798,
"implied_under": 0.4241,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4202,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1787,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": 0.0331,
"ev": -0.0316,
"implied_prob": 0.5798,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"p_final": 0.6129
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1625,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": -0.0301,
"ev": -0.1495,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.3901
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6129,
"p_final_under": 0.3901,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.02,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2622,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2622,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2622,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Orlando Pride W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2622,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2622,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Orlando Pride W at 44.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Orlando Pride W as the value side (44.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Orlando Pride W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Orlando Pride W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Orlando Pride W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Orlando Pride W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0417,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3247,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3546099290780142,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 60.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 60%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.756,
"draw_prob": 0.223,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4461,
"over_prob": 0.765,
"total_xg": 4.02,
"under_prob": 0.235,
"xg_diff": 0.3
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0447,
"ev": 0.0417,
"implied_prob": 0.3247,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Orlando Pride W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.191,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.49,
"edge": 0.0291,
"market_prob": 0.6037,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.756,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1389,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": -0.0211,
"ev": -0.1485,
"implied_prob": 0.3963,
"model_prob": 0.244,
"p_final": 0.3751
},
"p_final": 0.6328,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0571,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.191,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": 0.0291,
"ev": -0.0571,
"implied_prob": 0.6037,
"model_prob": 0.756,
"p_final": 0.6328
}
},
"edge": 0.1518,
"ev": 0.2247,
"implied_prob": 0.6042,
"model_prob": 0.756,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1787,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.58,
"edge": 0.0331,
"market_prob": 0.5798,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1787,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": 0.0331,
"ev": -0.0316,
"implied_prob": 0.5798,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"p_final": 0.6129
},
"p_final": 0.6129,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0316,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1625,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": -0.0301,
"ev": -0.1495,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.3901
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1891,
"ev": 0.2622,
"implied_prob": 0.5759,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1508562,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2622,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4461,
"draw": 0.223,
"home": 0.3309
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2247,
"implied_prob": 0.6042,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.756,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2247,
"implied_prob": 0.6042,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.756,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Orlando Pride W",
"home": "Bay FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.250729,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2622,
"implied_prob": 0.5759,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0417,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3247,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3546099290780142,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1508562,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T20:59:25.749331+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Bay FC & Orlando Pride W!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải NWSL Nữ — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave W | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 48 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit W | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 46 |
| 4 | Angel City W | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 5 | Utah Royals W | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 42 |
| 6 | Portland Thorns W | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 42 |
| 7 | Kansas City W | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 41 |
| 8 | Seattle Reign FC | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 40 |
| 9 | North Carolina Courage W | 25 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 39 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride W | 25 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 30 |
| 12 | Houston Dash W | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 29 |
| 13 | Bay FC | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 26 |
| 14 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 26 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville W | 26 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 23 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars W | 26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 17 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Carolina Courage W | 25 | 48 | 37 | +11 | 39 |
| 2 | Angel City W | 26 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 42 |
| 3 | Kansas City W | 26 | 43 | 37 | +6 | 41 |
| 4 | Portland Thorns W | 25 | 42 | 34 | +8 | 42 |
| 5 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 35 |
| 6 | Utah Royals W | 25 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 42 |
| 7 | San Diego Wave W | 26 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 48 |
| 8 | Washington Spirit W | 26 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 46 |
| 9 | Racing Louisville W | 26 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 23 |
| 10 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 26 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 54 |
| 11 | Seattle Reign FC | 26 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 40 |
| 12 | Orlando Pride W | 25 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 30 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 26 |
| 14 | Houston Dash W | 25 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 29 |
| 15 | Bay FC | 25 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 26 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars W | 26 | 15 | 60 | -45 | 17 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Wave W | 26 | 7.6 | 4.5 | +3.1 | 48 |
| 2 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 3.9 | 1.9 | +2.0 | 35 |
| 3 | Bay FC | 25 | 3.1 | 1.4 | +1.7 | 26 |
| 4 | Orlando Pride W | 25 | 4.6 | 3.5 | +1.1 | 30 |
| 5 | North Carolina Courage W | 25 | 2.3 | 1.2 | +1.1 | 39 |
| 6 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 3.9 | 2.9 | +1.0 | 26 |
| 7 | Seattle Reign FC | 26 | 3.2 | 2.3 | +0.9 | 40 |
| 8 | Utah Royals W | 25 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.4 | 42 |
| 9 | Kansas City W | 26 | 3.7 | 4.2 | -0.5 | 41 |
| 10 | Washington Spirit W | 26 | 1.2 | 2.3 | -1.1 | 46 |
| 11 | Angel City W | 26 | 1.7 | 3.0 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 12 | Portland Thorns W | 25 | 3.0 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 42 |
| 13 | Racing Louisville W | 26 | 1.4 | 3.1 | -1.7 | 23 |
| 14 | Houston Dash W | 25 | 1.9 | 3.9 | -2.0 | 29 |
| 15 | Chicago Red Stars W | 26 | 1.2 | 3.5 | -2.3 | 17 |
| 16 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 26 | — | — | — | 54 |
