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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Orlando Pride W Portland Thorns W ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 1-4 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.13
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Portland Thorns W win · Orlando Pride W 1–4 Portland Thorns W
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.46,
"away_win_prob": 0.2742,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.327,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.673,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2425,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.65,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.12,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.07,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.97,
"home_win_prob": 0.4834,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.666,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.334
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Portland Thorns W",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Orlando Pride W",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Portland Thorns W"
},
"away_xg": 1.46,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Orlando Pride W",
"confidence": 48.3,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Orlando Pride W",
"edge": 0.0534,
"edge_gap": 0.2092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4298,
"model_prob": 0.4832,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 27.4,
"draw": 24.3,
"home": 48.3
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Orlando Pride W"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.13
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.13,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Orlando Pride W Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.33,
"market_odds": 2.13,
"model_odds": 2.07,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": 1.4,
"value_pct": 2.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 23,
"away_score_rate": 76.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 24,
"home_score_rate": 86.1,
"no_prob": 32.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 67.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 67.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.46,
"home_expected": 1.97,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 6.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Orlando Pride W or Draw",
"prob": 72.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Orlando Pride W or Portland Thorns W",
"prob": 75.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Portland Thorns W",
"prob": 51.6
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Orlando Pride W or Portland Thorns W",
"pick_prob": 75.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 27.4,
"draw_pct": 24.2,
"home_pct": 48.3,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Orlando Pride W"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.43,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 66.6,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 66.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.43,
"under_prob": 33.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 2.9,
"implied_prob": 46.9,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Orlando Pride W Win",
"model_prob": 48.3,
"odds": 2.13
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Portland Thorns W",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 32.35,
"draw": 24.67,
"home": 42.98
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 19:59:12",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 19:29:50",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Orlando Pride W",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.98,
"gap_pp": 5.34,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 48.32
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.67,
"gap_pp": -0.4,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 24.28
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.35,
"gap_pp": -4.94,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 27.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.47,
"gap_pp": 4.13,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 66.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.53,
"gap_pp": -4.13,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 33.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.13,
"early": 2.13,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.98,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.98,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.71,
"early": 3.71,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.67,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.83,
"early": 2.83,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.35,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.35,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.49,
"early": 1.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.47,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.48,
"early": 2.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.53,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -3.2,
"ev": -0.256,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.093,
"model_prob_pct": 9.3,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.8
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 6.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.97,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3573,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"edge": 0.0171,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.625,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.673,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2598,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.0125,
"ev": -0.1299,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"model_prob": 0.327,
"p_final": 0.3625
},
"p_final": 0.6421,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0309,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0753,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3573,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.0753,
"implied_prob": 0.625,
"model_prob": 0.673,
"p_final": 0.6421
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1498,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.0,
"text": "-15.0%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0566,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.7,
"text": "+5.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0566,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 32.7,
"sort_key": 10200.94,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 67.3
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3547,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.48,
"edge": 0.0186,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.6136,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.666,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3547,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0644,
"implied_prob": 0.6136,
"model_prob": 0.666,
"p_final": 0.6322
},
"p_final": 0.6322,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0143,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0644,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.258,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.1237,
"implied_prob": 0.3864,
"model_prob": 0.334,
"p_final": 0.3729
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0456,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.6,
"text": "+4.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1717,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.2,
"text": "-17.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 66.6,
"sort_key": 10041.04,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 33.4,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Portland Thorns W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0375,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.8,
"text": "-3.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4298,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0375,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.8,
"text": "-3.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4832,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0292,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Orlando Pride W",
"sort_key": 1790.625,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 807.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 9.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.6%",
"alert_team": "Portland Thorns W",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.36,
"hero_label": "Orlando Pride W",
"market_prob_pct": 43.0,
"market_team": "Orlando Pride W",
"model_prob_pct": 48.3,
"model_team": "Orlando Pride W",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Portland Thorns W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Portland Thorns W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0566,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0566,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Orlando Pride W at 48.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Orlando Pride W as the value side (48.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Portland Thorns W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Orlando Pride W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Portland Thorns W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Portland Thorns W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0375,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4298,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4832,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0292,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 45.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.51"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.51
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.36,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.36,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.46,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 46.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.97,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.97,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.97 \u00b7 Away xG 1.46 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +46%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.6%",
"steam_team": "Portland Thorns W",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Portland Thorns W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Portland Thorns W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Portland Thorns W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0566,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0566,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Orlando Pride W at 48.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Orlando Pride W as the value side (48.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Portland Thorns W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Orlando Pride W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Portland Thorns W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Portland Thorns W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0375,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4298,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4832,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0292,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 45.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.51"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.51
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Portland Thorns W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Orlando Pride W 1.97 xG vs Portland Thorns W 1.46 \u2192 Orlando Pride W 48.3%",
"Market: Orlando Pride W ~43.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Portland Thorns W \u2193 -3.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Orlando Pride W, but sharp money moved toward Portland Thorns W.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.36,
"fair_prob": 48.34,
"label": "Orlando Pride W",
"market_prob": 42.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.42,
"fair_prob": 24.25,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.93,
"fair_prob": 27.42,
"label": "Portland Thorns W",
"market_prob": 32.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.83,
"fair_prob": 66.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.77,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.83,
"fair_prob": 33.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.23,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.77,
"fair_prob": 67.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.53,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.77,
"fair_prob": 32.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.47,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 48.34,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Orlando Pride W",
"market_prob_pct": 42.98,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Portland Thorns W"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Orlando Pride W\u0027s win probability at 48.3%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 43.0%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.36,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Orlando Pride W",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.3,
"model_prob_pct": 48.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Portland Thorns W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Orlando Pride W 1.97 xG vs Portland Thorns W 1.46 \u2192 Orlando Pride W 48.3%",
"Market: Orlando Pride W ~43.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Portland Thorns W \u2193 -3.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Orlando Pride W, but sharp money moved toward Portland Thorns W.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.36,
"hero_label": "Orlando Pride W",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Portland Thorns W odds shortened \u2193 -3.6%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Portland Thorns W, with odds shortening by 3.6%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Orlando Pride W.",
"note": "Buying interest on Portland Thorns W \u2014 odds shortened by 3.6%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Orlando Pride W.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Portland Thorns W, with odds shortening by 3.6%.",
"Buying interest on Portland Thorns W \u2014 odds shortened by 3.6%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Orlando Pride W.",
"At the same time, Portland Thorns W has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 3.6%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Portland Thorns W."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.36,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 20.9 pp (at 48.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 20.9,
"max_prob_pct": 48.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Orlando Pride W",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.4,
"lead": "The model rates Orlando Pride W considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.36,
"edge_pp": 5.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 48.34,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Orlando Pride W",
"market_prob_pct": 42.98,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.42,
"edge_pp": -0.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.25,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.67,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.93,
"edge_pp": -4.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Portland Thorns W",
"market_prob_pct": 32.35,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Portland Thorns W \u2014 odds shortened by 3.6%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Orlando Pride W (43.0%).",
"Portland Thorns W has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.6%, 6/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Orlando Pride W, Market \u2192 Orlando Pride W, Recent sharp money \u2192 Portland Thorns W.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.95,
"closing_odds": 2.13,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.95,
"entry_odds": 2.13,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.4
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 33h 55m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Portland Thorns W (3.6%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.83",
"2.77",
"2.70"
],
"display": "3.02 \u2192 2.55 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 33h 55m",
"pick_team": "Portland Thorns W",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.02"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.8,
2.83,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,4.2 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.83"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.8,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 6/8 sportsbooks on Portland Thorns W",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Portland Thorns W",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.6%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"summary": "Market moved toward Portland Thorns W while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Portland Thorns W",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.6%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"pick_team": "Portland Thorns W",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_team_name": "Portland Thorns W",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "portland-thorns-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Portland Thorns W",
"away_team_id": 3001,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3001.webp",
"away_team_name": "Portland Thorns W",
"away_team_public_id": "54s8Ahtt7FJk9O",
"away_team_slug": "portland-thorns-w",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1508549,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Orlando Pride W",
"home_team_id": 3000,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3000.webp",
"home_team_name": "Orlando Pride W",
"home_team_public_id": "402y06UfzoI54q",
"home_team_slug": "orlando-pride-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "orlando-pride-w",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i NWSL N\u1eef",
"league_id": 254,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/254.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i NWSL N\u1eef",
"league_public_id": "2ZcWd6nHxKtiNe",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 20:00:00",
"public_id": "1QbA6hBvBL7IwS",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Orlando",
"venue_name": "Exploria Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4166,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1429,
"implied_prob": 0.3235,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3235,
"draw": 0.2467,
"home": 0.4298
},
"model_prob": 0.274,
"p_final": 0.3029
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2982,
"best_odd": 3.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0012,
"ev": -0.089,
"implied_prob": 0.2467,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3235,
"draw": 0.2467,
"home": 0.4298
},
"model_prob": 0.2428,
"p_final": 0.2456
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4139,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.0375,
"implied_prob": 0.4298,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3235,
"draw": 0.2467,
"home": 0.4298
},
"model_prob": 0.4832,
"p_final": 0.4519
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": -0.0793,
"ev": -0.2245,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.274
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.71,
"edge": -0.0268,
"ev": -0.0993,
"implied_prob": 0.2695,
"model_prob": 0.2428
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": 0.0292,
"implied_prob": 0.4695,
"model_prob": 0.4832
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2598,
"alpha_yes": 0.3573,
"best_no_odd": 2.6,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0477,
"edge_yes": 0.0477,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1498,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1299,
"ev_yes": 0.0566,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0753,
"implied_no": 0.3747,
"implied_yes": 0.6253,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2598,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.0125,
"ev": -0.1299,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"model_prob": 0.327,
"p_final": 0.3625
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3573,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.0753,
"implied_prob": 0.625,
"model_prob": 0.673,
"p_final": 0.6421
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.3625,
"p_final_yes": 0.6421,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3547,
"alpha_under": 0.258,
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.48,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.48,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.35,
"edge_over": 0.0583,
"edge_under": -0.0583,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0456,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0644,
"ev_under": -0.1717,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1237,
"implied_over": 0.6077,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6136,
"implied_under": 0.3923,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3864,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3547,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0644,
"implied_prob": 0.6136,
"model_prob": 0.666,
"p_final": 0.6322
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.258,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.1237,
"implied_prob": 0.3864,
"model_prob": 0.334,
"p_final": 0.3729
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6322,
"p_final_under": 0.3729,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.43,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0566,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0566,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0566,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Portland Thorns W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0566,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0566,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Orlando Pride W at 48.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Orlando Pride W as the value side (48.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Portland Thorns W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Orlando Pride W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Portland Thorns W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Portland Thorns W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0375,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4298,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4832,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0292,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 45.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.51"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.51
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.673,
"draw_prob": 0.2428,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4832,
"over_prob": 0.666,
"total_xg": 3.43,
"under_prob": 0.334,
"xg_diff": 0.51
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.0375,
"implied_prob": 0.4298,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4832,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Orlando Pride W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3573,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"edge": 0.0171,
"market_prob": 0.625,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.673,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2598,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.0125,
"ev": -0.1299,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"model_prob": 0.327,
"p_final": 0.3625
},
"p_final": 0.6421,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0753,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3573,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.0753,
"implied_prob": 0.625,
"model_prob": 0.673,
"p_final": 0.6421
}
},
"edge": 0.0477,
"ev": 0.0566,
"implied_prob": 0.6253,
"model_prob": 0.673,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3547,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.48,
"edge": 0.0186,
"market_prob": 0.6136,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.666,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3547,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0644,
"implied_prob": 0.6136,
"model_prob": 0.666,
"p_final": 0.6322
},
"p_final": 0.6322,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0644,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.258,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.1237,
"implied_prob": 0.3864,
"model_prob": 0.334,
"p_final": 0.3729
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0583,
"ev": 0.0456,
"implied_prob": 0.6077,
"model_prob": 0.666,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1508549,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0566,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.274,
"draw": 0.2428,
"home": 0.4832
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Portland Thorns W",
"home": "Orlando Pride W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.043806,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0566,
"implied_prob": 0.6253,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.673,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0375,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4298,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4832,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0292,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1508549,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T20:05:50.639605+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Orlando Pride W & Portland Thorns W!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải NWSL Nữ — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave W | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 48 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit W | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 46 |
| 4 | Angel City W | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 5 | Utah Royals W | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 42 |
| 6 | Portland Thorns W | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 42 |
| 7 | Kansas City W | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 41 |
| 8 | Seattle Reign FC | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 40 |
| 9 | North Carolina Courage W | 25 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 39 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride W | 25 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 30 |
| 12 | Houston Dash W | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 29 |
| 13 | Bay FC | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 26 |
| 14 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 26 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville W | 26 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 23 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars W | 26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 17 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Carolina Courage W | 25 | 48 | 37 | +11 | 39 |
| 2 | Angel City W | 26 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 42 |
| 3 | Kansas City W | 26 | 43 | 37 | +6 | 41 |
| 4 | Portland Thorns W | 25 | 42 | 34 | +8 | 42 |
| 5 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 35 |
| 6 | Utah Royals W | 25 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 42 |
| 7 | San Diego Wave W | 26 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 48 |
| 8 | Washington Spirit W | 26 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 46 |
| 9 | Racing Louisville W | 26 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 23 |
| 10 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 26 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 54 |
| 11 | Seattle Reign FC | 26 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 40 |
| 12 | Orlando Pride W | 25 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 30 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 26 |
| 14 | Houston Dash W | 25 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 29 |
| 15 | Bay FC | 25 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 26 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars W | 26 | 15 | 60 | -45 | 17 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Wave W | 26 | 7.6 | 4.5 | +3.1 | 48 |
| 2 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 3.9 | 1.9 | +2.0 | 35 |
| 3 | Bay FC | 25 | 3.1 | 1.4 | +1.7 | 26 |
| 4 | Orlando Pride W | 25 | 4.6 | 3.5 | +1.1 | 30 |
| 5 | North Carolina Courage W | 25 | 2.3 | 1.2 | +1.1 | 39 |
| 6 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 3.9 | 2.9 | +1.0 | 26 |
| 7 | Seattle Reign FC | 26 | 3.2 | 2.3 | +0.9 | 40 |
| 8 | Utah Royals W | 25 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.4 | 42 |
| 9 | Kansas City W | 26 | 3.7 | 4.2 | -0.5 | 41 |
| 10 | Washington Spirit W | 26 | 1.2 | 2.3 | -1.1 | 46 |
| 11 | Angel City W | 26 | 1.7 | 3.0 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 12 | Portland Thorns W | 25 | 3.0 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 42 |
| 13 | Racing Louisville W | 26 | 1.4 | 3.1 | -1.7 | 23 |
| 14 | Houston Dash W | 25 | 1.9 | 3.9 | -2.0 | 29 |
| 15 | Chicago Red Stars W | 26 | 1.2 | 3.5 | -2.3 | 17 |
| 16 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 26 | — | — | — | 54 |
