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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Orlando Pride W Orlando Pride W ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 2-1, 2-2, 1-1, 1-2, 3-1 3-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.72
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Orlando Pride W win · Orlando Pride W 3–1 Houston Dash W
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"content_hash": "307fc81d88573eeb28e4f88619f65c18cc1d2a7bdfb80cc644b422b4502b124d",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.86,
"away_win_prob": 0.3308,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.244,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.756,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2232,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.02,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.48,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.24,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.16,
"home_win_prob": 0.446,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.765,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.235
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Orlando Pride W or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Orlando Pride W"
},
"away_xg": 1.86,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Orlando Pride W",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0661,
"edge_gap": 0.1152,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5122,
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 33.1,
"draw": 22.3,
"home": 44.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.79
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.79,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Orlando Pride W Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.95,
"market_odds": 1.79,
"model_odds": 2.24,
"overround": 9.1,
"prob_edge": -11.2,
"value_pct": -20.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 5,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 21,
"away_score_rate": 84.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 22,
"home_score_rate": 88.5,
"no_prob": 24.4,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 75.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 75.6
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.86,
"home_expected": 2.16,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 5.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Orlando Pride W or Draw",
"prob": 66.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Orlando Pride W or Houston Dash W",
"prob": 77.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Houston Dash W",
"prob": 55.4
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Orlando Pride W or Houston Dash W",
"pick_prob": 77.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 33.1,
"draw_pct": 22.3,
"home_pct": 44.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Orlando Pride W"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 4.02,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 76.5,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 76.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 4.02,
"under_prob": 23.5
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 23.1,
"implied_prob": 26.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Houston Dash W Win",
"model_prob": 33.1,
"odds": 3.72
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Houston Dash W",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 24.65,
"draw": 24.13,
"home": 51.22
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 22:59:09",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 22:29:25",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Orlando Pride W",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.22,
"gap_pp": -6.61,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 44.61
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.13,
"gap_pp": -1.82,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 22.3
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.65,
"gap_pp": 8.44,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 33.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.91,
"gap_pp": 20.59,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 76.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.09,
"gap_pp": -20.59,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 23.5
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.79,
"early": 1.79,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.22,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.22,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.8,
"early": 3.8,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.13,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.13,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.72,
"early": 3.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.65,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.65,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.68,
"early": 1.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.91,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.13,
"early": 2.13,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.09,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.09,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 20.6,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.7,
"ev": -0.259,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "2-1",
"market_odds": 9.5,
"market_prob": 0.1053,
"market_prob_pct": 10.5,
"model_prob": 0.078,
"model_prob_pct": 7.8,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.7
},
{
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 5.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 2.16,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.169,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0357,
"edge_pp": 3.6,
"market_prob": 0.5535,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.169,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0357,
"ev": -0.0278,
"implied_prob": 0.5535,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"p_final": 0.5892
},
"p_final": 0.5892,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2622,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0278,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1536,
"best_odd": 2.045,
"edge": -0.0325,
"ev": -0.1533,
"implied_prob": 0.4465,
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.4141
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3005,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 30.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.4995,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -50.0,
"text": "-50.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3005,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 76.5,
"sort_key": 10420.45,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 23.5,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1762,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"edge": 0.0338,
"edge_pp": 3.4,
"market_prob": 0.564,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.756,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1602,
"best_odd": 2.07,
"edge": -0.0308,
"ev": -0.1612,
"implied_prob": 0.436,
"model_prob": 0.244,
"p_final": 0.4052
},
"p_final": 0.5979,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2096,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0434,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1762,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": 0.0338,
"ev": -0.0434,
"implied_prob": 0.564,
"model_prob": 0.756,
"p_final": 0.5979
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4803,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -48.0,
"text": "-48.0%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.3079,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 30.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3079,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 24.4,
"sort_key": 10277.11,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 75.6
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Houston Dash W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1471,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.7,
"text": "-14.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5122,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0008,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.1,
"text": "-0.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2015,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Orlando Pride W",
"sort_key": 2199.936,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 803.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 7.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"alert_team": "Houston Dash W",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.43,
"hero_label": "Houston Dash W",
"market_prob_pct": 51.2,
"market_team": "Orlando Pride W",
"model_prob_pct": 44.6,
"model_team": "Orlando Pride W",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Houston Dash W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Houston Dash W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3079,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3079,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 29,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Orlando Pride W at 44.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Orlando Pride W as the value side (44.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Houston Dash W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Orlando Pride W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +30.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "29 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Houston Dash W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Houston Dash W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1471,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5122,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5586592178770949,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2015,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 60.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 60%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (60%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.0,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.43,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.43,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.86,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 60.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.16,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.16,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.16 \u00b7 Away xG 1.86 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +60%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"steam_team": "Houston Dash W",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Houston Dash W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Houston Dash W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Houston Dash W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3079,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3079,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 29,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Orlando Pride W at 44.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Orlando Pride W as the value side (44.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Houston Dash W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Orlando Pride W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +30.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "29 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Houston Dash W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Houston Dash W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1471,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5122,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5586592178770949,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2015,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 60.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 60%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Houston Dash W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Orlando Pride W 2.16 xG vs Houston Dash W 1.86 \u2192 Orlando Pride W 44.6%",
"Market: Orlando Pride W ~51.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Houston Dash W \u2193 -12.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Orlando Pride W, but sharp money moved toward Houston Dash W.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.62,
"fair_prob": 44.6,
"label": "Orlando Pride W",
"market_prob": 51.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.81,
"fair_prob": 22.32,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.43,
"fair_prob": 33.08,
"label": "Houston Dash W",
"market_prob": 24.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.19,
"fair_prob": 76.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.19,
"fair_prob": 23.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.39,
"fair_prob": 75.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.21,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.39,
"fair_prob": 24.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.79,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 8.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.08,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Houston Dash W",
"market_prob_pct": 24.65,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Houston Dash W"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Houston Dash W\u0027s win probability at 33.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 24.6%, a difference of 8.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 8.43,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Orlando Pride W",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 51.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.6,
"model_prob_pct": 44.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Houston Dash W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Orlando Pride W 2.16 xG vs Houston Dash W 1.86 \u2192 Orlando Pride W 44.6%",
"Market: Orlando Pride W ~51.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Houston Dash W \u2193 -12.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Orlando Pride W, but sharp money moved toward Houston Dash W.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.43,
"hero_label": "Houston Dash W",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Houston Dash W odds shortened \u2193 -12.5%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (2/10 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Houston Dash W.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Houston Dash W.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Houston Dash W.",
"Confirmation remains limited (2/10 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Houston Dash W."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Houston Dash W.",
"Recent line movement on Houston Dash W (\u2193 -12.5%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/10), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.43,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.5 pp (at 44.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.5,
"max_prob_pct": 44.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Houston Dash W",
"largest_gap_pp": 8.4,
"lead": "The model rates Houston Dash W considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.62,
"edge_pp": -6.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.6,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Orlando Pride W",
"market_prob_pct": 51.22,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.81,
"edge_pp": -1.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.32,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.13,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.43,
"edge_pp": 8.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.08,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Houston Dash W",
"market_prob_pct": 24.65,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Houston Dash W.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Orlando Pride W (51.2%).",
"Houston Dash W has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -12.5%, 2/10).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Orlando Pride W, Market \u2192 Orlando Pride W, Recent sharp money \u2192 Houston Dash W.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 26.88,
"closing_odds": 3.72,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.88,
"entry_odds": 3.72,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.3
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "2/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 33h 34m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Houston Dash W (12.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.00",
"3.75",
"3.50"
],
"display": "4.00 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 33h 34m",
"pick_team": "Houston Dash W",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.0,
3.72,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,10.1 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Houston Dash W",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"summary": "Market moved toward Houston Dash W while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Houston Dash W",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/10",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"pick_team": "Houston Dash W",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_team_name": "Houston Dash W",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Houston Dash W",
"away_team_id": 2998,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2998.webp",
"away_team_name": "Houston Dash W",
"away_team_public_id": "1EpCPzP3MwMDRf",
"away_team_slug": "houston-dash-w",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1508536,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Orlando Pride W",
"home_team_id": 3000,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3000.webp",
"home_team_name": "Orlando Pride W",
"home_team_public_id": "402y06UfzoI54q",
"home_team_slug": "orlando-pride-w",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i NWSL N\u1eef",
"league_id": 254,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/254.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i NWSL N\u1eef",
"league_public_id": "2ZcWd6nHxKtiNe",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 23:00:00",
"public_id": "0OoxY1THydied9",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.262,
"best_odd": 3.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.0008,
"implied_prob": 0.2465,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2465,
"draw": 0.2413,
"home": 0.5122
},
"model_prob": 0.3309,
"p_final": 0.2686
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2918,
"best_odd": 3.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0053,
"ev": -0.1033,
"implied_prob": 0.2413,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2465,
"draw": 0.2413,
"home": 0.5122
},
"model_prob": 0.223,
"p_final": 0.236
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5405,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0358,
"ev": -0.1471,
"implied_prob": 0.5122,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2465,
"draw": 0.2413,
"home": 0.5122
},
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"p_final": 0.4765
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.72,
"edge": 0.0621,
"ev": 0.2308,
"implied_prob": 0.2688,
"model_prob": 0.3309
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.8,
"edge": -0.0401,
"ev": -0.1524,
"implied_prob": 0.2632,
"model_prob": 0.223
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.1126,
"ev": -0.2015,
"implied_prob": 0.5587,
"model_prob": 0.4461
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1602,
"alpha_yes": 0.1762,
"best_no_odd": 2.13,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1939,
"edge_yes": 0.1939,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4803,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1612,
"ev_yes": 0.3079,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0434,
"implied_no": 0.4379,
"implied_yes": 0.5621,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1602,
"best_odd": 2.07,
"edge": -0.0308,
"ev": -0.1612,
"implied_prob": 0.436,
"model_prob": 0.244,
"p_final": 0.4052
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1762,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": 0.0338,
"ev": -0.0434,
"implied_prob": 0.564,
"model_prob": 0.756,
"p_final": 0.5979
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4052,
"p_final_yes": 0.5979,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.169,
"alpha_under": 0.1536,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.13,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.045,
"edge_over": 0.2119,
"edge_under": -0.2119,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3005,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0278,
"ev_under": -0.4995,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1533,
"implied_over": 0.5531,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5535,
"implied_under": 0.4469,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4465,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.169,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0357,
"ev": -0.0278,
"implied_prob": 0.5535,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"p_final": 0.5892
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1536,
"best_odd": 2.045,
"edge": -0.0325,
"ev": -0.1533,
"implied_prob": 0.4465,
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.4141
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5892,
"p_final_under": 0.4141,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.02,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3079,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3079,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3079,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.3
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Houston Dash W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3079,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3079,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 29,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Orlando Pride W at 44.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Orlando Pride W as the value side (44.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Houston Dash W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Orlando Pride W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +30.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "29 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Houston Dash W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Houston Dash W, but the model still strongly favours Orlando Pride W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1471,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5122,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5586592178770949,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2015,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 60.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 60%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.756,
"draw_prob": 0.223,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4461,
"over_prob": 0.765,
"total_xg": 4.02,
"under_prob": 0.235,
"xg_diff": 0.3
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0358,
"ev": -0.1471,
"implied_prob": 0.5122,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Orlando Pride W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1762,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"edge": 0.0338,
"market_prob": 0.564,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.756,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1602,
"best_odd": 2.07,
"edge": -0.0308,
"ev": -0.1612,
"implied_prob": 0.436,
"model_prob": 0.244,
"p_final": 0.4052
},
"p_final": 0.5979,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0434,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1762,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": 0.0338,
"ev": -0.0434,
"implied_prob": 0.564,
"model_prob": 0.756,
"p_final": 0.5979
}
},
"edge": 0.1939,
"ev": 0.3079,
"implied_prob": 0.5621,
"model_prob": 0.756,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.169,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0357,
"market_prob": 0.5535,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.169,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0357,
"ev": -0.0278,
"implied_prob": 0.5535,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"p_final": 0.5892
},
"p_final": 0.5892,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0278,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1536,
"best_odd": 2.045,
"edge": -0.0325,
"ev": -0.1533,
"implied_prob": 0.4465,
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.4141
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.2119,
"ev": 0.3005,
"implied_prob": 0.5531,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1508536,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3079,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3309,
"draw": 0.223,
"home": 0.4461
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3079,
"implied_prob": 0.5621,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.756,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3079,
"implied_prob": 0.5621,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.756,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Houston Dash W",
"home": "Orlando Pride W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.287353,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3005,
"implied_prob": 0.5531,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1471,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5122,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5586592178770949,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2015,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1508536,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T22:59:10.977420+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Orlando Pride W & Houston Dash W!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải NWSL Nữ — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave W | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 48 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit W | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 46 |
| 4 | Angel City W | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 5 | Utah Royals W | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 42 |
| 6 | Portland Thorns W | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 42 |
| 7 | Kansas City W | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 41 |
| 8 | Seattle Reign FC | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 40 |
| 9 | North Carolina Courage W | 25 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 39 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride W | 25 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 30 |
| 12 | Houston Dash W | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 29 |
| 13 | Bay FC | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 26 |
| 14 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 26 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville W | 26 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 23 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars W | 26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 17 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Carolina Courage W | 25 | 48 | 37 | +11 | 39 |
| 2 | Angel City W | 26 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 42 |
| 3 | Kansas City W | 26 | 43 | 37 | +6 | 41 |
| 4 | Portland Thorns W | 25 | 42 | 34 | +8 | 42 |
| 5 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 35 |
| 6 | Utah Royals W | 25 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 42 |
| 7 | San Diego Wave W | 26 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 48 |
| 8 | Washington Spirit W | 26 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 46 |
| 9 | Racing Louisville W | 26 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 23 |
| 10 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 26 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 54 |
| 11 | Seattle Reign FC | 26 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 40 |
| 12 | Orlando Pride W | 25 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 30 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 26 |
| 14 | Houston Dash W | 25 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 29 |
| 15 | Bay FC | 25 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 26 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars W | 26 | 15 | 60 | -45 | 17 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Wave W | 26 | 7.6 | 4.5 | +3.1 | 48 |
| 2 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 3.9 | 1.9 | +2.0 | 35 |
| 3 | Bay FC | 25 | 3.1 | 1.4 | +1.7 | 26 |
| 4 | Orlando Pride W | 25 | 4.6 | 3.5 | +1.1 | 30 |
| 5 | North Carolina Courage W | 25 | 2.3 | 1.2 | +1.1 | 39 |
| 6 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 3.9 | 2.9 | +1.0 | 26 |
| 7 | Seattle Reign FC | 26 | 3.2 | 2.3 | +0.9 | 40 |
| 8 | Utah Royals W | 25 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.4 | 42 |
| 9 | Kansas City W | 26 | 3.7 | 4.2 | -0.5 | 41 |
| 10 | Washington Spirit W | 26 | 1.2 | 2.3 | -1.1 | 46 |
| 11 | Angel City W | 26 | 1.7 | 3.0 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 12 | Portland Thorns W | 25 | 3.0 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 42 |
| 13 | Racing Louisville W | 26 | 1.4 | 3.1 | -1.7 | 23 |
| 14 | Houston Dash W | 25 | 1.9 | 3.9 | -2.0 | 29 |
| 15 | Chicago Red Stars W | 26 | 1.2 | 3.5 | -2.3 | 17 |
| 16 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 26 | — | — | — | 54 |
