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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Juventud Unida Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.97
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Victoriano Arenas 1–1 Juventud Unida
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "c28cba67cbd580bc38de2ae9bb3f84fc2b75db7db0c33bb541693f80f37a0b20",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"away_win_prob": 0.3659,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.73,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.96,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"home_win_prob": 0.3377,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Victoriano Arenas or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Victoriano Arenas"
},
"away_xg": 1.33,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Juventud Unida",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0665,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2995,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.97
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.97,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Juventud Unida Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.34,
"market_odds": 2.97,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 12.4,
"prob_edge": 3.0,
"value_pct": 8.8,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 10,
"away_failed_to_score": 10,
"away_played": 29,
"away_score_rate": 73.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 14,
"home_failed_to_score": 13,
"home_played": 28,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.33,
"home_expected": 1.27,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Victoriano Arenas or Draw",
"prob": 63.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Victoriano Arenas or Juventud Unida",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Juventud Unida",
"prob": 66.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Victoriano Arenas or Juventud Unida",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Juventud Unida"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 8.8,
"implied_prob": 33.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Juventud Unida Win",
"model_prob": 36.6,
"odds": 2.97
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Juventud Unida",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 29.95,
"draw": 34.89,
"home": 35.16
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 17:59:44",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 17:29:53",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Victoriano Arenas",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.16,
"gap_pp": -1.41,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.89,
"gap_pp": -5.24,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.95,
"gap_pp": 6.65,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.7,
"gap_pp": 19.5,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 71.3,
"gap_pp": -19.5,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.53,
"early": 2.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.16,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.16,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.55,
"early": 2.55,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.89,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.89,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.97,
"early": 2.97,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.95,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 3.18,
"early": 3.18,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.7,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.7,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.28,
"early": 1.28,
"implied_closing_pct": 71.3,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 71.3,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 19.5,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.9,
"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.16,
"edge": 0.0156,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.2875,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.16,
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.0424,
"implied_prob": 0.2875,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.303
},
"p_final": 0.303,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5231,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0424,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1753,
"best_odd": 1.275,
"edge": -0.0341,
"ev": -0.135,
"implied_prob": 0.7125,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6784
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.6388,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 63.9,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.3266,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -32.7,
"text": "-32.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.6388,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10574.92,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1344,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.405,
"edge": 0.0227,
"edge_pp": 2.3,
"market_prob": 0.3761,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1848,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0312,
"ev": -0.1406,
"implied_prob": 0.6239,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5927
},
"p_final": 0.3988,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3107,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0408,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1344,
"best_odd": 2.405,
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.3761,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.3988
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3175,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -31.8,
"text": "-31.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.4279,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 42.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.4279,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10535.11,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Victoriano Arenas, but the model still strongly favours Juventud Unida.",
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0304,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.0,
"text": "-3.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2995,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0304,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.0,
"text": "-3.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.087,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Juventud Unida",
"sort_key": 1792.4,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -4.5%",
"alert_team": "Victoriano Arenas",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.64,
"hero_label": "Juventud Unida",
"market_prob_pct": 29.9,
"market_team": "Victoriano Arenas",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Juventud Unida",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Victoriano Arenas, but the model still strongly favours Juventud Unida."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Victoriano Arenas, but the model still strongly favours Juventud Unida."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6388,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6388,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Juventud Unida at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Juventud Unida as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Victoriano Arenas, but the model still strongly favours Juventud Unida.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Juventud Unida",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +63.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +63.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +63.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+63.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Victoriano Arenas, but the model still strongly favours Juventud Unida.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Victoriano Arenas, but the model still strongly favours Juventud Unida.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0304,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2995,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33670033670033667,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.087,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.64,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.64,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -4.5%",
"steam_team": "Victoriano Arenas",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Victoriano Arenas, but the model still strongly favours Juventud Unida.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Victoriano Arenas, but the model still strongly favours Juventud Unida."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Victoriano Arenas, but the model still strongly favours Juventud Unida."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6388,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6388,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Juventud Unida at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Juventud Unida as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Victoriano Arenas, but the model still strongly favours Juventud Unida.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Juventud Unida",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +63.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +63.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +63.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+63.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Victoriano Arenas, but the model still strongly favours Juventud Unida.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Victoriano Arenas, but the model still strongly favours Juventud Unida.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0304,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2995,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33670033670033667,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.087,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Victoriano Arenas, but the model still strongly favours Juventud Unida.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Victoriano Arenas 1.27 xG vs Juventud Unida 1.33 \u2192 Juventud Unida 36.6%",
"Market: Victoriano Arenas ~29.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Victoriano Arenas \u2193 -4.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Juventud Unida, but sharp money moved toward Victoriano Arenas.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.39,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Victoriano Arenas",
"market_prob": 35.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.25,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 34.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.64,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Juventud Unida",
"market_prob": 29.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.72,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 28.48,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.72,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 71.52,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.94,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 37.56,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.94,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 62.44,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Juventud Unida",
"market_prob_pct": 29.95,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Victoriano Arenas"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Juventud Unida\u0027s win probability at 36.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 29.9%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.64,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Juventud Unida",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.7,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Victoriano Arenas, but the model still strongly favours Juventud Unida. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Victoriano Arenas 1.27 xG vs Juventud Unida 1.33 \u2192 Juventud Unida 36.6%",
"Market: Victoriano Arenas ~29.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Victoriano Arenas \u2193 -4.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Juventud Unida, but sharp money moved toward Victoriano Arenas.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.64,
"hero_label": "Juventud Unida",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Victoriano Arenas odds shortened \u2193 -4.5%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Victoriano Arenas, with odds shortening by 4.5%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Juventud Unida.",
"note": "Buying interest on Victoriano Arenas \u2014 odds shortened by 4.5%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Juventud Unida.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Victoriano Arenas, with odds shortening by 4.5%.",
"Buying interest on Victoriano Arenas \u2014 odds shortened by 4.5%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Juventud Unida.",
"At the same time, Victoriano Arenas has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 4.5%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Victoriano Arenas."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.64,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Juventud Unida",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.6,
"lead": "The model rates Juventud Unida considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.39,
"edge_pp": -1.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Victoriano Arenas",
"market_prob_pct": 35.16,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.25,
"edge_pp": -5.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.89,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.64,
"edge_pp": 6.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Juventud Unida",
"market_prob_pct": 29.95,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Victoriano Arenas \u2014 odds shortened by 4.5%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Victoriano Arenas (29.9%).",
"Victoriano Arenas has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -4.5%, 6/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Juventud Unida, Market \u2192 Victoriano Arenas, Recent sharp money \u2192 Victoriano Arenas.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 33.67,
"closing_odds": 2.97,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 33.67,
"entry_odds": 2.97,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.5
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 57m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Victoriano Arenas (4.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.88",
"2.71",
"2.53"
],
"display": "3.04 \u2192 2.45 \u2192 2.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 57m",
"pick_team": "Victoriano Arenas",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.04"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.88,
2.53,
2.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,6.7",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.53"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.88,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 6/8 sportsbooks on Victoriano Arenas",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Victoriano Arenas",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.5%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"summary": "Market moved toward Victoriano Arenas while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Victoriano Arenas",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.5%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"pick_team": "Victoriano Arenas",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_team_name": "Victoriano Arenas",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "juventud-unida",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Juventud Unida",
"away_team_id": 486,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/486.webp",
"away_team_name": "Juventud Unida",
"away_team_public_id": "0htCRLCK7GFjho",
"away_team_slug": "juventud-unida",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1500134,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Victoriano Arenas",
"home_team_id": 1964,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1964.webp",
"home_team_name": "Victoriano Arenas",
"home_team_public_id": "03unWxhI0S7ESZ",
"home_team_slug": "victoriano-arenas",
"ht.home_team_slug": "victoriano-arenas",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera C",
"league_id": 132,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/132.webp",
"league_name": "Primera C",
"league_public_id": "5iJhpsMWwrB2VM",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 18:00:00",
"public_id": "1B8iyrOVOW4eaA",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Avellaneda",
"venue_name": "Estadio Saturnino Moure"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4051,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0269,
"ev": -0.0304,
"implied_prob": 0.2995,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2995,
"draw": 0.3489,
"home": 0.3516
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.3264
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4146,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.1658,
"implied_prob": 0.3489,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2995,
"draw": 0.3489,
"home": 0.3516
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3271
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4405,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0062,
"ev": -0.1261,
"implied_prob": 0.3516,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2995,
"draw": 0.3489,
"home": 0.3516
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3454
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0293,
"ev": 0.087,
"implied_prob": 0.3367,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.55,
"edge": -0.0957,
"ev": -0.244,
"implied_prob": 0.3922,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": -0.0577,
"ev": -0.146,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1848,
"alpha_yes": 0.1344,
"best_no_odd": 1.5,
"best_yes_odd": 2.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1694,
"edge_yes": 0.1694,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3175,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1406,
"ev_yes": 0.4279,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0408,
"implied_no": 0.6244,
"implied_yes": 0.3756,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1848,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0312,
"ev": -0.1406,
"implied_prob": 0.6239,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5927
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1344,
"best_odd": 2.405,
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.3761,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.3988
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5927,
"p_final_yes": 0.3988,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.08,
"alpha_under": 0.1753,
"best_over_odd": 3.4,
"best_under_odd": 1.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 3.16,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.275,
"edge_over": 0.1972,
"edge_under": -0.1972,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.6388,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0424,
"ev_under": -0.3266,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.135,
"implied_over": 0.2848,
"implied_over_mf": 0.2875,
"implied_under": 0.7152,
"implied_under_mf": 0.7125,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.16,
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.0424,
"implied_prob": 0.2875,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.303
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1753,
"best_odd": 1.275,
"edge": -0.0341,
"ev": -0.135,
"implied_prob": 0.7125,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6784
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.303,
"p_final_under": 0.6784,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6388,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6388,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6388,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Victoriano Arenas, but the model still strongly favours Juventud Unida."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6388,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6388,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Juventud Unida at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Juventud Unida as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Victoriano Arenas, but the model still strongly favours Juventud Unida.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Juventud Unida",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +63.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +63.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +63.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+63.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Victoriano Arenas, but the model still strongly favours Juventud Unida.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Victoriano Arenas, but the model still strongly favours Juventud Unida.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0304,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2995,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33670033670033667,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.087,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0269,
"ev": -0.0304,
"implied_prob": 0.2995,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Juventud Unida"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1344,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.405,
"edge": 0.0227,
"market_prob": 0.3761,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1848,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0312,
"ev": -0.1406,
"implied_prob": 0.6239,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5927
},
"p_final": 0.3988,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0408,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1344,
"best_odd": 2.405,
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.3761,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.3988
}
},
"edge": 0.1694,
"ev": 0.4279,
"implied_prob": 0.3756,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.16,
"edge": 0.0156,
"market_prob": 0.2875,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.16,
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.0424,
"implied_prob": 0.2875,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.303
},
"p_final": 0.303,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0424,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1753,
"best_odd": 1.275,
"edge": -0.0341,
"ev": -0.135,
"implied_prob": 0.7125,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6784
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1972,
"ev": 0.6388,
"implied_prob": 0.2848,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1500134,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6388,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6388,
"implied_prob": 0.2848,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6388,
"implied_prob": 0.2848,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Juventud Unida",
"home": "Victoriano Arenas"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.233206,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4279,
"implied_prob": 0.3756,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0304,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2995,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33670033670033667,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.087,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1500134,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T17:59:46.773421+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Victoriano Arenas & Juventud Unida!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera C — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berazategui | 30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 48 |
| 2 | Lugano | 30 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacachispas | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 4 | Estrella Del Sur | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 5 | Mercedes | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 43 |
| 6 | Juventud Unida | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 7 | Centro Español | 29 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 41 |
| 8 | Victoriano Arenas | 30 | 9 | 14 | 7 | 41 |
| 9 | Puerto Nuevo | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 |
| 10 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 36 |
| 11 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 12 | JJ Urquiza | 29 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 29 |
| 13 | Leandro N. Alem | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 28 |
| 14 | Argentino Rosario | 30 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 24 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berazategui | 30 | 35 | 21 | +14 | 48 |
| 2 | Centro Español | 29 | 35 | 27 | +8 | 41 |
| 3 | Juventud Unida | 30 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 42 |
| 4 | Lugano | 30 | 33 | 25 | +8 | 46 |
| 5 | Sacachispas | 30 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 46 |
| 6 | Estrella Del Sur | 30 | 31 | 29 | +2 | 44 |
| 7 | Mercedes | 30 | 29 | 23 | +6 | 43 |
| 8 | Puerto Nuevo | 30 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 38 |
| 9 | Argentino Rosario | 30 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 24 |
| 10 | Leandro N. Alem | 29 | 27 | 50 | -23 | 28 |
| 11 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 29 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 36 |
| 12 | Victoriano Arenas | 30 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 41 |
| 13 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 30 | 22 | 38 | -16 | 31 |
| 14 | JJ Urquiza | 29 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 29 |
