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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Estrella Del Sur Estrella Del Sur ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Estrella Del Sur win · Estrella Del Sur 2–1 Argentino Rosario
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"content_hash": "2e28015509df66f9ecb92441dc770cd18f97b0df8eeb3fc9cb924e533dfe3ac3",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.26,
"away_win_prob": 0.3331,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2963,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.0,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.7,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.34,
"home_win_prob": 0.3706,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Estrella Del Sur or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Estrella Del Sur"
},
"away_xg": 1.26,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Estrella Del Sur",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0943,
"edge_gap": 0.0371,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4648,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 33.3,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 37.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.91
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.91,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Estrella Del Sur Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.15,
"market_odds": 1.91,
"model_odds": 2.7,
"overround": 12.6,
"prob_edge": -15.3,
"value_pct": -29.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 9,
"away_played": 29,
"away_score_rate": 71.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 11,
"home_failed_to_score": 11,
"home_played": 29,
"home_score_rate": 73.8,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.26,
"home_expected": 1.34,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Estrella Del Sur or Draw",
"prob": 66.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Estrella Del Sur or Argentino Rosario",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Argentino Rosario",
"prob": 62.9
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Estrella Del Sur or Argentino Rosario",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 33.3,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 37.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Estrella Del Sur"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 32.2,
"implied_prob": 25.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Argentino Rosario Win",
"model_prob": 33.3,
"odds": 3.97
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Argentino Rosario",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 22.36,
"draw": 31.15,
"home": 46.48
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 17:59:38",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 17:29:47",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Estrella Del Sur",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.48,
"gap_pp": -9.43,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 37.05
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.15,
"gap_pp": -1.55,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.36,
"gap_pp": 10.98,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 33.35
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.86,
"gap_pp": 12.34,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 64.14,
"gap_pp": -12.34,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.91,
"early": 1.91,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.48,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.48,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.85,
"early": 2.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.15,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.15,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.97,
"early": 3.97,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.36,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.36,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.54,
"early": 2.54,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.86,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.86,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.42,
"early": 1.42,
"implied_closing_pct": 64.14,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 64.14,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 12.3,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.34,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1802,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0239,
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"market_prob": 0.4124,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1983,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0263,
"ev": -0.1412,
"implied_prob": 0.5876,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5613
},
"p_final": 0.4363,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1881,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0489,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1802,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0239,
"ev": -0.0489,
"implied_prob": 0.4124,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4363
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.272,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.2,
"text": "-27.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.3625,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 36.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3625,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10476.25,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1516,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0159,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.377,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1516,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0649,
"implied_prob": 0.377,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3929
},
"p_final": 0.3929,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1472,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0649,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0219,
"ev": -0.1344,
"implied_prob": 0.623,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6011
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2243,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 22.4,
"text": "+22.4%"
},
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.3,
"text": "-22.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2243,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10201.87,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Argentino Rosario, but the model still strongly favours Estrella Del Sur.",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2049,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.5,
"text": "-20.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4648,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0029,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.3,
"text": "-0.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2923,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Estrella Del Sur",
"sort_key": 2199.768,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"alert_team": "Argentino Rosario",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.95,
"hero_label": "Argentino Rosario",
"market_prob_pct": 46.5,
"market_team": "Estrella Del Sur",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Estrella Del Sur",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 94,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Argentino Rosario, but the model still strongly favours Estrella Del Sur."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Argentino Rosario, but the model still strongly favours Estrella Del Sur."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3625,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3625,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Estrella Del Sur at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Estrella Del Sur as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Argentino Rosario, but the model still strongly favours Estrella Del Sur.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Estrella Del Sur",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +36.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Argentino Rosario, but the model still strongly favours Estrella Del Sur.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Argentino Rosario, but the model still strongly favours Estrella Del Sur.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2049,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4648,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2923,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.95,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.95,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.26,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.34,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.34 \u00b7 Away xG 1.26 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"steam_team": "Argentino Rosario",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Argentino Rosario, but the model still strongly favours Estrella Del Sur.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Argentino Rosario, but the model still strongly favours Estrella Del Sur."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Argentino Rosario, but the model still strongly favours Estrella Del Sur."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3625,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3625,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Estrella Del Sur at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Estrella Del Sur as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Argentino Rosario, but the model still strongly favours Estrella Del Sur.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Estrella Del Sur",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +36.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Argentino Rosario, but the model still strongly favours Estrella Del Sur.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Argentino Rosario, but the model still strongly favours Estrella Del Sur.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2049,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4648,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2923,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Argentino Rosario, but the model still strongly favours Estrella Del Sur.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Estrella Del Sur 1.34 xG vs Argentino Rosario 1.26 \u2192 Estrella Del Sur 37.1%",
"Market: Estrella Del Sur ~46.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Argentino Rosario \u2193 -20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Estrella Del Sur, but sharp money moved toward Argentino Rosario.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.42,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Estrella Del Sur",
"market_prob": 46.48,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.52,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.95,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Argentino Rosario",
"market_prob": 22.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.5,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.7,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.5,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.3,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.27,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.27,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 58.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Argentino Rosario",
"market_prob_pct": 22.36,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Argentino Rosario"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Argentino Rosario\u0027s win probability at 33.3%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 22.4%, a difference of 10.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.95,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Estrella Del Sur",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.4,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Argentino Rosario, but the model still strongly favours Estrella Del Sur. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Estrella Del Sur 1.34 xG vs Argentino Rosario 1.26 \u2192 Estrella Del Sur 37.1%",
"Market: Estrella Del Sur ~46.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Argentino Rosario \u2193 -20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Estrella Del Sur, but sharp money moved toward Argentino Rosario.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.95,
"hero_label": "Argentino Rosario",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Argentino Rosario odds shortened \u2193 -20.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Argentino Rosario.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Argentino Rosario.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Argentino Rosario.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Argentino Rosario."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Argentino Rosario more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Argentino Rosario (\u2193 -20.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on Argentino Rosario."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.95,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Argentino Rosario",
"largest_gap_pp": 10.9,
"lead": "The model rates Argentino Rosario considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.42,
"edge_pp": -9.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Estrella Del Sur",
"market_prob_pct": 46.48,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.52,
"edge_pp": -1.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.15,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.95,
"edge_pp": 10.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Argentino Rosario",
"market_prob_pct": 22.36,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Argentino Rosario.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Estrella Del Sur (46.5%).",
"However, Argentino Rosario has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -20.0%, 7/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Estrella Del Sur, Market \u2192 Estrella Del Sur, Recent sharp money \u2192 Argentino Rosario.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.19,
"closing_odds": 3.97,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.19,
"entry_odds": 3.97,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -27.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -27.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -22.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -22.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -21.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -21.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 36h 1m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/8 books synchronized on Argentino Rosario (20.0% steam, score 94) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.25",
"4.61",
"3.97"
],
"display": "5.71 \u2192 3.70 \u2192 4.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 36h 1m",
"pick_team": "Argentino Rosario",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.71"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.25,
3.97,
4.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,14.8",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.97"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.25,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Argentino Rosario \u2193 -20.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Argentino Rosario",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Argentino Rosario \u2193 -20.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"open_odds": 5.25,
"summary": "Market moved toward Argentino Rosario while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Argentino Rosario",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 94,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"open_odds": 5.25,
"pick_team": "Argentino Rosario",
"steam_score": 94,
"steam_team_name": "Argentino Rosario",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "argentino-rosario",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Argentino Rosario",
"away_team_id": 8389,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8389.webp",
"away_team_name": "Argentino Rosario",
"away_team_public_id": "111AOS5XIfHVVJ",
"away_team_slug": "argentino-rosario",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1500131,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Estrella Del Sur",
"home_team_id": 23099,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/23099.webp",
"home_team_name": "Estrella Del Sur",
"home_team_public_id": "3ol0FIX0mp4QJX",
"home_team_slug": "estrella-del-sur",
"ht.home_team_slug": "estrella-del-sur",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera C",
"league_id": 132,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/132.webp",
"league_name": "Primera C",
"league_public_id": "5iJhpsMWwrB2VM",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 18:00:00",
"public_id": "33prWR4VuPIDfc",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2506,
"best_odd": 3.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0275,
"ev": -0.0029,
"implied_prob": 0.2236,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2236,
"draw": 0.3115,
"home": 0.4648
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.2512
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4395,
"best_odd": 2.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0068,
"ev": -0.1316,
"implied_prob": 0.3115,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2236,
"draw": 0.3115,
"home": 0.4648
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.3047
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5151,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0486,
"ev": -0.2049,
"implied_prob": 0.4648,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2236,
"draw": 0.3115,
"home": 0.4648
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.4163
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.97,
"edge": 0.0816,
"ev": 0.3239,
"implied_prob": 0.2519,
"model_prob": 0.3335
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.85,
"edge": -0.0549,
"ev": -0.1564,
"implied_prob": 0.3509,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.153,
"ev": -0.2923,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.3705
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1983,
"alpha_yes": 0.1802,
"best_no_odd": 1.6,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1327,
"edge_yes": 0.1327,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.272,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1412,
"ev_yes": 0.3625,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0489,
"implied_no": 0.5877,
"implied_yes": 0.4123,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1983,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0263,
"ev": -0.1412,
"implied_prob": 0.5876,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5613
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1802,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0239,
"ev": -0.0489,
"implied_prob": 0.4124,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4363
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5613,
"p_final_yes": 0.4363,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1516,
"alpha_under": 0.2085,
"best_over_odd": 2.54,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.44,
"edge_over": 0.105,
"edge_under": -0.105,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2243,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0649,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1344,
"implied_over": 0.377,
"implied_over_mf": 0.377,
"implied_under": 0.623,
"implied_under_mf": 0.623,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1516,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0649,
"implied_prob": 0.377,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3929
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0219,
"ev": -0.1344,
"implied_prob": 0.623,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6011
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3929,
"p_final_under": 0.6011,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3625,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3625,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3625,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Argentino Rosario, but the model still strongly favours Estrella Del Sur."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3625,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3625,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Estrella Del Sur at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Estrella Del Sur as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Argentino Rosario, but the model still strongly favours Estrella Del Sur.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Estrella Del Sur",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +36.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Argentino Rosario, but the model still strongly favours Estrella Del Sur.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Argentino Rosario, but the model still strongly favours Estrella Del Sur.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2049,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4648,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2923,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0486,
"ev": -0.2049,
"implied_prob": 0.4648,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Estrella Del Sur"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1802,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0239,
"market_prob": 0.4124,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1983,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0263,
"ev": -0.1412,
"implied_prob": 0.5876,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5613
},
"p_final": 0.4363,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0489,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1802,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0239,
"ev": -0.0489,
"implied_prob": 0.4124,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4363
}
},
"edge": 0.1327,
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.4123,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1516,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0159,
"market_prob": 0.377,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1516,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0649,
"implied_prob": 0.377,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3929
},
"p_final": 0.3929,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0649,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0219,
"ev": -0.1344,
"implied_prob": 0.623,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6011
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.105,
"ev": 0.2243,
"implied_prob": 0.377,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1500131,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3625,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3335,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3705
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2243,
"implied_prob": 0.377,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2243,
"implied_prob": 0.377,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Argentino Rosario",
"home": "Estrella Del Sur"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.197563,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.4123,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2049,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4648,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2923,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1500131,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T17:59:40.710649+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Estrella Del Sur & Argentino Rosario!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera C — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berazategui | 31 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 48 |
| 2 | Sacachispas | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 47 |
| 3 | Lugano | 31 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 46 |
| 4 | Juventud Unida | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 45 |
| 5 | Estrella Del Sur | 31 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 45 |
| 6 | Centro Español | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 7 | Mercedes | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 44 |
| 8 | Victoriano Arenas | 31 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 44 |
| 9 | Puerto Nuevo | 31 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 38 |
| 10 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 11 | JJ Urquiza | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 12 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 32 |
| 13 | Leandro N. Alem | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 31 |
| 14 | Argentino Rosario | 31 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventud Unida | 31 | 38 | 31 | +7 | 45 |
| 2 | Berazategui | 31 | 37 | 24 | +13 | 48 |
| 3 | Centro Español | 30 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 44 |
| 4 | Lugano | 31 | 35 | 28 | +7 | 46 |
| 5 | Sacachispas | 31 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 47 |
| 6 | Estrella Del Sur | 31 | 31 | 29 | +2 | 45 |
| 7 | Mercedes | 31 | 30 | 24 | +6 | 44 |
| 8 | Argentino Rosario | 31 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 27 |
| 9 | Leandro N. Alem | 30 | 29 | 51 | -22 | 31 |
| 10 | Puerto Nuevo | 31 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 38 |
| 11 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 31 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 36 |
| 12 | Victoriano Arenas | 31 | 24 | 19 | +5 | 44 |
| 13 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 31 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 32 |
| 14 | JJ Urquiza | 31 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 32 |
