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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Deportivo Español Deportivo Español ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Deportivo Español win · Deportivo Español 1–0 Central Ballester
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "d6057dfebefc48089635fa6a97ea03f043180cbcc1b017c72cf12efbd1e8e3fa",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.11,
"away_win_prob": 0.2664,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.465,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.535,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2902,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.75,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.45,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.26,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.49,
"home_win_prob": 0.4434,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Central Ballester and -2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Central Ballester"
},
"away_xg": 1.11,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0995,
"edge_gap": 0.1528,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5424,
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 26.7,
"draw": 29.0,
"home": 44.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.64
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.64,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.84,
"market_odds": 1.64,
"model_odds": 2.26,
"overround": 12.4,
"prob_edge": -16.7,
"value_pct": -27.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 16,
"away_failed_to_score": 13,
"away_played": 28,
"away_score_rate": 67.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 17,
"home_failed_to_score": 11,
"home_played": 28,
"home_score_rate": 77.5,
"no_prob": 46.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 53.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 53.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.11,
"home_expected": 1.49,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol or Draw",
"prob": 73.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol or Central Ballester",
"prob": 70.9
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Central Ballester",
"prob": 55.6
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol or Draw",
"pick_prob": 73.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 26.6,
"draw_pct": 29.0,
"home_pct": 44.3,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-2.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 43.4,
"implied_prob": 18.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Central Ballester Win",
"model_prob": 26.6,
"odds": 5.39
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Central Ballester",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 16.5,
"draw": 29.26,
"home": 54.24
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 17:59:24",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 17:29:35",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.24,
"gap_pp": -9.95,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 44.29
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.26,
"gap_pp": -0.25,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.01
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 16.5,
"gap_pp": 10.19,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 26.69
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.01,
"gap_pp": 15.19,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 66.99,
"gap_pp": -15.19,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.64,
"early": 1.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.24,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 54.24,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.04,
"early": 3.04,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.26,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 5.39,
"early": 5.39,
"implied_closing_pct": 16.5,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 16.5,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.76,
"early": 2.76,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.01,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.01,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.36,
"early": 1.36,
"implied_closing_pct": 66.99,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 66.99,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.5,
"ev": 0.0455,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.123,
"model_prob_pct": 12.3,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.3
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.3
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.49,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1277,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.585,
"edge": 0.0247,
"edge_pp": 2.5,
"market_prob": 0.3414,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.535,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1756,
"best_odd": 1.34,
"edge": -0.034,
"ev": -0.163,
"implied_prob": 0.6586,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.6246
},
"p_final": 0.3661,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.383,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0536,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1277,
"best_odd": 2.585,
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.3414,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.3661
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3304,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -33.0,
"text": "-33.0%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.819,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 81.9,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.819,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 46.5,
"sort_key": 10887.1,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 53.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1392,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.74,
"edge": 0.021,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.3309,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1392,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"edge": 0.021,
"ev": -0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.3309,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3519
},
"p_final": 0.3519,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3207,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0357,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1914,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"edge": -0.0289,
"ev": -0.1325,
"implied_prob": 0.6691,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6402
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.446,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 44.6,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.3,
"text": "-22.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.446,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10401.4,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol.",
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1938,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.4,
"text": "-19.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5424,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0174,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.7,
"text": "-1.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2736,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol",
"sort_key": 1795.65,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"alert_team": "Central Ballester",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.14,
"hero_label": "Central Ballester",
"market_prob_pct": 54.2,
"market_team": "Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol",
"model_prob_pct": 44.3,
"model_team": "Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.819,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.819,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol at 44.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol as the value side (44.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +81.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +81.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +81.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+81.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1938,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5424,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6097560975609756,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2736,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.38
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.375,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.14,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.14,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.11,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.49,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.49,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.49 \u00b7 Away xG 1.11 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +10%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"steam_team": "Central Ballester",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.819,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.819,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol at 44.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol as the value side (44.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +81.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +81.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +81.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+81.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1938,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5424,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6097560975609756,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2736,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.38
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol 1.49 xG vs Central Ballester 1.11 \u2192 Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol 44.3%",
"Market: Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol ~54.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Central Ballester \u2193 -7.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol, but sharp money moved toward Central Ballester.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.9,
"fair_prob": 44.34,
"label": "Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol",
"market_prob": 54.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.24,
"fair_prob": 29.02,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.14,
"fair_prob": 26.64,
"label": "Central Ballester",
"market_prob": 16.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.3,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.3,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.0,
"fair_prob": 53.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 33.5,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.0,
"fair_prob": 46.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 66.5,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.64,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Central Ballester",
"market_prob_pct": 16.5,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Central Ballester"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Central Ballester\u0027s win probability at 26.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 16.5%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.14,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 54.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.9,
"model_prob_pct": 44.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol 1.49 xG vs Central Ballester 1.11 \u2192 Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol 44.3%",
"Market: Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol ~54.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Central Ballester \u2193 -7.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol, but sharp money moved toward Central Ballester.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.14,
"hero_label": "Central Ballester",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Central Ballester odds shortened \u2193 -7.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Central Ballester.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Central Ballester.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Central Ballester.",
"Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Central Ballester."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Central Ballester more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Central Ballester (\u2193 -7.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.14,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 15.3 pp (at 44.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 15.3,
"max_prob_pct": 44.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Central Ballester",
"largest_gap_pp": 10.1,
"lead": "The model rates Central Ballester considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.9,
"edge_pp": -9.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.34,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol",
"market_prob_pct": 54.24,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.24,
"edge_pp": -0.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.02,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.26,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.14,
"edge_pp": 10.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Central Ballester",
"market_prob_pct": 16.5,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Central Ballester.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol (54.2%).",
"Central Ballester has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -7.7%, 3/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol, Market \u2192 Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol, Recent sharp money \u2192 Central Ballester.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 18.55,
"closing_odds": 5.39,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 18.55,
"entry_odds": 5.39,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.5
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 6.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 32h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Central Ballester (swing 6.70 \u2192 3.60 \u2192 6.00) \u2014 net 7.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.50",
"5.95",
"5.39"
],
"display": "6.70 \u2192 3.60 \u2192 6.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 32h 2m",
"pick_team": "Central Ballester",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.70"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
6.5,
5.39,
6.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,8.1",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.39"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 6.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Central Ballester",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 6.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"open_odds": 6.5,
"summary": "Market moved toward Central Ballester while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Central Ballester",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"current_odds": 6.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"open_odds": 6.5,
"pick_team": "Central Ballester",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Central Ballester",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "central-ballester",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Central Ballester",
"away_team_id": 1967,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1967.webp",
"away_team_name": "Central Ballester",
"away_team_public_id": "3vwYy1Tq4c9hP8",
"away_team_slug": "central-ballester",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1500128,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol",
"home_team_id": 8381,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8381.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol",
"home_team_public_id": "5jf35QrsVNSvx2",
"home_team_slug": "deportivo-espanol",
"ht.home_team_slug": "deportivo-espanol",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera C",
"league_id": 132,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/132.webp",
"league_name": "Primera C",
"league_public_id": "5iJhpsMWwrB2VM",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 18:00:00",
"public_id": "464VpTgc3rfv4D",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1694,
"best_odd": 5.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0174,
"implied_prob": 0.165,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.165,
"draw": 0.2926,
"home": 0.5424
},
"model_prob": 0.2669,
"p_final": 0.1823
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2989,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0007,
"ev": -0.1127,
"implied_prob": 0.2926,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.165,
"draw": 0.2926,
"home": 0.5424
},
"model_prob": 0.2901,
"p_final": 0.2919
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5105,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0508,
"ev": -0.1938,
"implied_prob": 0.5424,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.165,
"draw": 0.2926,
"home": 0.5424
},
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"p_final": 0.4916
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.39,
"edge": 0.0814,
"ev": 0.4388,
"implied_prob": 0.1855,
"model_prob": 0.2669
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": -0.0388,
"ev": -0.118,
"implied_prob": 0.3289,
"model_prob": 0.2901
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.1668,
"ev": -0.2736,
"implied_prob": 0.6098,
"model_prob": 0.4429
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1756,
"alpha_yes": 0.1277,
"best_no_odd": 1.44,
"best_yes_odd": 3.4,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.2,
"edge_yes": 0.2,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3304,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.163,
"ev_yes": 0.819,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0536,
"implied_no": 0.665,
"implied_yes": 0.335,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1756,
"best_odd": 1.34,
"edge": -0.034,
"ev": -0.163,
"implied_prob": 0.6586,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.6246
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1277,
"best_odd": 2.585,
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.3414,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.3661
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.6246,
"p_final_yes": 0.3661,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1392,
"alpha_under": 0.1914,
"best_over_odd": 3.0,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.74,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.355,
"edge_over": 0.143,
"edge_under": -0.143,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.446,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0357,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1325,
"implied_over": 0.339,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3309,
"implied_under": 0.661,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6691,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1392,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"edge": 0.021,
"ev": -0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.3309,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3519
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1914,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"edge": -0.0289,
"ev": -0.1325,
"implied_prob": 0.6691,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6402
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3519,
"p_final_under": 0.6402,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.819,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.819,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.819,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.819,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.819,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol at 44.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol as the value side (44.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +81.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +81.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +81.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+81.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1938,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5424,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6097560975609756,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2736,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.38
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.535,
"draw_prob": 0.2901,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4429,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.38
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0508,
"ev": -0.1938,
"implied_prob": 0.5424,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1277,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.585,
"edge": 0.0247,
"market_prob": 0.3414,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.535,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 1.34,
"edge": -0.034,
"ev": -0.163,
"implied_prob": 0.6586,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.6246
},
"p_final": 0.3661,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0536,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1277,
"best_odd": 2.585,
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.3414,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.3661
}
},
"edge": 0.2,
"ev": 0.819,
"implied_prob": 0.335,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1392,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.74,
"edge": 0.021,
"market_prob": 0.3309,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1392,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"edge": 0.021,
"ev": -0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.3309,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3519
},
"p_final": 0.3519,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0357,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1914,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"edge": -0.0289,
"ev": -0.1325,
"implied_prob": 0.6691,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6402
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.143,
"ev": 0.446,
"implied_prob": 0.339,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1500128,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.819,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2669,
"draw": 0.2901,
"home": 0.4429
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.446,
"implied_prob": 0.339,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.446,
"implied_prob": 0.339,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Central Ballester",
"home": "Deportivo Espa\u00f1ol"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.438165,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.819,
"implied_prob": 0.335,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.535,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1938,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5424,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6097560975609756,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2736,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1500128,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T17:59:26.314918+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Deportivo Español & Central Ballester!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera C — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berazategui | 31 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 48 |
| 2 | Centro Español | 31 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 47 |
| 3 | Sacachispas | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 47 |
| 4 | Lugano | 31 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 46 |
| 5 | Juventud Unida | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 45 |
| 6 | Estrella Del Sur | 31 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 45 |
| 7 | Mercedes | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 44 |
| 8 | Victoriano Arenas | 31 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 44 |
| 9 | Puerto Nuevo | 31 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 38 |
| 10 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 11 | JJ Urquiza | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 12 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 32 |
| 13 | Leandro N. Alem | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 31 |
| 14 | Argentino Rosario | 31 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Centro Español | 31 | 42 | 28 | +14 | 47 |
| 2 | Juventud Unida | 31 | 38 | 31 | +7 | 45 |
| 3 | Berazategui | 31 | 37 | 24 | +13 | 48 |
| 4 | Lugano | 31 | 35 | 28 | +7 | 46 |
| 5 | Sacachispas | 31 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 47 |
| 6 | Estrella Del Sur | 31 | 31 | 29 | +2 | 45 |
| 7 | Mercedes | 31 | 30 | 24 | +6 | 44 |
| 8 | Argentino Rosario | 31 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 27 |
| 9 | Leandro N. Alem | 31 | 30 | 56 | -26 | 31 |
| 10 | Puerto Nuevo | 31 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 38 |
| 11 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 31 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 36 |
| 12 | Victoriano Arenas | 31 | 24 | 19 | +5 | 44 |
| 13 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 31 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 32 |
| 14 | JJ Urquiza | 31 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 32 |
