Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Leandro N. Alem Deportivo Paraguayo ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 4-1 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.19
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Deportivo Paraguayo win · Deportivo Paraguayo 4–1 Leandro N. Alem
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "778273f46b2fd796df6d9bd1f5e3394e8c7084e963e4f31c4d163431da01baeb",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.44,
"away_win_prob": 0.4188,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.46,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2931,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.39,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.41,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.47,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.16,
"home_win_prob": 0.2881,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Deportivo Paraguayo or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Deportivo Paraguayo"
},
"away_xg": 1.44,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Leandro N. Alem",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1401,
"edge_gap": 0.1252,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2784,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 41.8,
"draw": 29.3,
"home": 28.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.19
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.19,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Leandro N. Alem Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.59,
"market_odds": 3.19,
"model_odds": 2.39,
"overround": 12.6,
"prob_edge": 10.5,
"value_pct": 33.5,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 11,
"away_played": 25,
"away_score_rate": 76.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 10,
"home_failed_to_score": 18,
"home_played": 26,
"home_score_rate": 68.7,
"no_prob": 46.0,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.44,
"home_expected": 1.16,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Deportivo Paraguayo or Draw",
"prob": 58.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Deportivo Paraguayo or Leandro N. Alem",
"prob": 70.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Leandro N. Alem",
"prob": 71.2
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Leandro N. Alem",
"pick_prob": 71.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 41.9,
"draw_pct": 29.3,
"home_pct": 28.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Leandro N. Alem"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 33.7,
"implied_prob": 31.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Leandro N. Alem Win",
"model_prob": 41.9,
"odds": 3.19
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Leandro N. Alem",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 27.84,
"draw": 33.38,
"home": 38.78
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 17:59:31",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 17:29:54",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.78,
"gap_pp": -9.96,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 28.82
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.38,
"gap_pp": -4.05,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.33
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.84,
"gap_pp": 14.01,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 41.85
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.52,
"gap_pp": 16.68,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 68.48,
"gap_pp": -16.68,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.29,
"early": 2.29,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.78,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.66,
"early": 2.66,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.38,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.38,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.19,
"early": 3.19,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.84,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.84,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.89,
"early": 2.89,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.52,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.52,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.33,
"early": 1.33,
"implied_closing_pct": 68.48,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 68.48,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -3.0,
"ev": -0.194,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.16,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1835,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0226,
"edge_pp": 2.3,
"market_prob": 0.4171,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2019,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0248,
"ev": -0.1294,
"implied_prob": 0.5829,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.5581
},
"p_final": 0.4397,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1772,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0415,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1835,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": -0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.4171,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.4397
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2456,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.6,
"text": "-24.6%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.35,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 35.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.35,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 46.0,
"sort_key": 10465.0,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.0
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1421,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.64,
"edge": 0.0199,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.3416,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1421,
"best_odd": 2.64,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": -0.0454,
"implied_prob": 0.3416,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3616
},
"p_final": 0.3616,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2725,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0454,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1954,
"best_odd": 1.37,
"edge": -0.0274,
"ev": -0.1356,
"implied_prob": 0.6584,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6309
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.446,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 44.6,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2593,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.9,
"text": "-25.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.446,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10401.4,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Leandro N. Alem, but the model still strongly favours Leandro N. Alem.",
"consensus_odds": 3.19,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0061,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.6,
"text": "-0.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2784,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0061,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.6,
"text": "-0.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.335,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Leandro N. Alem",
"sort_key": 1798.475,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"alert_team": "Leandro N. Alem",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 14.04,
"hero_label": "Leandro N. Alem",
"market_prob_pct": 27.8,
"market_team": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"model_team": "Leandro N. Alem",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Leandro N. Alem, but the model still strongly favours Leandro N. Alem."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Leandro N. Alem, but the model still strongly favours Leandro N. Alem."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.446,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.446,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Leandro N. Alem at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Leandro N. Alem as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Leandro N. Alem, but the model still strongly favours Leandro N. Alem.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Leandro N. Alem",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +44.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +44.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +44.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+44.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Leandro N. Alem, but the model still strongly favours Leandro N. Alem.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Leandro N. Alem, but the model still strongly favours Leandro N. Alem.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0061,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.19,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2784,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31347962382445144,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.335,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.36363636363636365,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.6,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 53,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.04,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.04,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.44,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.16,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.44,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.16 \u00b7 Away xG 1.44 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"steam_team": "Leandro N. Alem",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Leandro N. Alem, but the model still strongly favours Leandro N. Alem.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Leandro N. Alem, but the model still strongly favours Leandro N. Alem."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Leandro N. Alem, but the model still strongly favours Leandro N. Alem."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.446,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.446,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Leandro N. Alem at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Leandro N. Alem as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Leandro N. Alem, but the model still strongly favours Leandro N. Alem.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Leandro N. Alem",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +44.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +44.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +44.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+44.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Leandro N. Alem, but the model still strongly favours Leandro N. Alem.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Leandro N. Alem, but the model still strongly favours Leandro N. Alem.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0061,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.19,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2784,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31347962382445144,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.335,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Leandro N. Alem, but the model still strongly favours Leandro N. Alem.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Paraguayo 1.16 xG vs Leandro N. Alem 1.44 \u2192 Leandro N. Alem 41.9%",
"Market: Deportivo Paraguayo ~27.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Leandro N. Alem odds \u2191 +10.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Leandro N. Alem, but the market has moved away from Leandro N. Alem.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.97,
"fair_prob": 28.81,
"label": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"market_prob": 38.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.07,
"fair_prob": 29.31,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.04,
"fair_prob": 41.88,
"label": "Leandro N. Alem",
"market_prob": 27.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.18,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 34.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.18,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 65.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.47,
"fair_prob": 54.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.53,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.47,
"fair_prob": 46.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 58.47,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 14.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Leandro N. Alem",
"market_prob_pct": 27.84,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Leandro N. Alem"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Leandro N. Alem\u0027s win probability at 41.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 27.8%, a difference of 14.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 14.04,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Leandro N. Alem",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 27.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.1,
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 53,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Leandro N. Alem, but the model still strongly favours Leandro N. Alem. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Paraguayo 1.16 xG vs Leandro N. Alem 1.44 \u2192 Leandro N. Alem 41.9%",
"Market: Deportivo Paraguayo ~27.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Leandro N. Alem odds \u2191 +10.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Leandro N. Alem, but the market has moved away from Leandro N. Alem.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 14.04,
"hero_label": "Leandro N. Alem",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Leandro N. Alem odds lengthened \u2191 +10.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (4/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Leandro N. Alem.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Leandro N. Alem.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Leandro N. Alem.",
"Confirmation remains limited (4/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Leandro N. Alem."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Leandro N. Alem more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Leandro N. Alem (\u2191 +10.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (4/11), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.04,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.6 pp (at 41.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.6,
"max_prob_pct": 41.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Leandro N. Alem",
"largest_gap_pp": 14.0,
"lead": "The model rates Leandro N. Alem considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.97,
"edge_pp": -9.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"market_prob_pct": 38.78,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.07,
"edge_pp": -4.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.38,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 14.04,
"edge_pp": 14.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Leandro N. Alem",
"market_prob_pct": 27.84,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Leandro N. Alem.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Deportivo Paraguayo (27.8%).",
"Leandro N. Alem odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.7%, 4/11) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Leandro N. Alem, Market \u2192 Deportivo Paraguayo, while Leandro N. Alem odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 31.35,
"closing_odds": 3.19,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 31.35,
"entry_odds": 3.19,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
}
],
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "4/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 81h 51m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Leandro N. Alem (10.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.19",
"2.91",
"2.62"
],
"display": "3.25 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 81h 51m",
"pick_team": "Leandro N. Alem",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.62,
3.19,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.2",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.19"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.62,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Leandro N. Alem",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"summary": "Market moved away from Leandro N. Alem while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Leandro N. Alem",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/11",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "Leandro N. Alem",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_team_name": "Leandro N. Alem",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Leandro N. Alem",
"away_team_id": 1940,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1940.webp",
"away_team_name": "Leandro N. Alem",
"away_team_public_id": "3rqnUrzsXpw7F3",
"away_team_slug": "leandro-n-alem",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1500092,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"home_team_id": 8394,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8394.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"home_team_public_id": "3uhzWptZmr7iaU",
"home_team_slug": "deportivo-paraguayo",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera C",
"league_id": 132,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/132.webp",
"league_name": "Primera C",
"league_public_id": "5iJhpsMWwrB2VM",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 18:00:00",
"public_id": "3wIibA4L7ms2B1",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.237,
"best_odd": 3.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0332,
"ev": -0.0061,
"implied_prob": 0.2784,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2784,
"draw": 0.3338,
"home": 0.3878
},
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"p_final": 0.3116
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4226,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0171,
"ev": -0.1576,
"implied_prob": 0.3338,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2784,
"draw": 0.3338,
"home": 0.3878
},
"model_prob": 0.2933,
"p_final": 0.3167
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3828,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0381,
"ev": -0.1993,
"implied_prob": 0.3878,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2784,
"draw": 0.3338,
"home": 0.3878
},
"model_prob": 0.2882,
"p_final": 0.3497
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.19,
"edge": 0.105,
"ev": 0.3349,
"implied_prob": 0.3135,
"model_prob": 0.4185
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": -0.0826,
"ev": -0.2198,
"implied_prob": 0.3759,
"model_prob": 0.2933
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": -0.1485,
"ev": -0.34,
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"model_prob": 0.2882
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2019,
"alpha_yes": 0.1835,
"best_no_odd": 1.64,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1247,
"edge_yes": 0.1247,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2456,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1294,
"ev_yes": 0.35,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0415,
"implied_no": 0.5847,
"implied_yes": 0.4153,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2019,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0248,
"ev": -0.1294,
"implied_prob": 0.5829,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.5581
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1835,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": -0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.4171,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.4397
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5581,
"p_final_yes": 0.4397,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1421,
"alpha_under": 0.1954,
"best_over_odd": 3.0,
"best_under_odd": 1.43,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.64,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.37,
"edge_over": 0.1418,
"edge_under": -0.1418,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.446,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0454,
"ev_under": -0.2593,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1356,
"implied_over": 0.3402,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3416,
"implied_under": 0.6598,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6584,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1421,
"best_odd": 2.64,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": -0.0454,
"implied_prob": 0.3416,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3616
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1954,
"best_odd": 1.37,
"edge": -0.0274,
"ev": -0.1356,
"implied_prob": 0.6584,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6309
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3616,
"p_final_under": 0.6309,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.446,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.446,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.446,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Leandro N. Alem, but the model still strongly favours Leandro N. Alem."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.446,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.446,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Leandro N. Alem at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Leandro N. Alem as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Leandro N. Alem, but the model still strongly favours Leandro N. Alem.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Leandro N. Alem",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +44.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +44.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +44.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+44.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Leandro N. Alem, but the model still strongly favours Leandro N. Alem.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Leandro N. Alem, but the model still strongly favours Leandro N. Alem.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0061,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.19,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2784,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31347962382445144,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.335,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"draw_prob": 0.2933,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4185,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.19,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0332,
"ev": -0.0061,
"implied_prob": 0.2784,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Leandro N. Alem"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1835,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0226,
"market_prob": 0.4171,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2019,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0248,
"ev": -0.1294,
"implied_prob": 0.5829,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.5581
},
"p_final": 0.4397,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0415,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1835,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": -0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.4171,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.4397
}
},
"edge": 0.1247,
"ev": 0.35,
"implied_prob": 0.4153,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1421,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.64,
"edge": 0.0199,
"market_prob": 0.3416,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1421,
"best_odd": 2.64,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": -0.0454,
"implied_prob": 0.3416,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3616
},
"p_final": 0.3616,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0454,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1954,
"best_odd": 1.37,
"edge": -0.0274,
"ev": -0.1356,
"implied_prob": 0.6584,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6309
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1418,
"ev": 0.446,
"implied_prob": 0.3402,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1500092,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.446,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4185,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.2882
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.446,
"implied_prob": 0.3402,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.446,
"implied_prob": 0.3402,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Leandro N. Alem",
"home": "Deportivo Paraguayo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.189,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.35,
"implied_prob": 0.4153,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0061,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.19,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2784,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31347962382445144,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.335,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1500092,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T17:59:32.652070+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Deportivo Paraguayo & Leandro N. Alem!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera C — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berazategui | 30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 48 |
| 2 | Lugano | 30 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacachispas | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 4 | Estrella Del Sur | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 5 | Mercedes | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 43 |
| 6 | Juventud Unida | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 7 | Centro Español | 29 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 41 |
| 8 | Victoriano Arenas | 30 | 9 | 14 | 7 | 41 |
| 9 | Puerto Nuevo | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 |
| 10 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 36 |
| 11 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 12 | JJ Urquiza | 29 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 29 |
| 13 | Leandro N. Alem | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 28 |
| 14 | Argentino Rosario | 30 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 24 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berazategui | 30 | 35 | 21 | +14 | 48 |
| 2 | Centro Español | 29 | 35 | 27 | +8 | 41 |
| 3 | Juventud Unida | 30 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 42 |
| 4 | Lugano | 30 | 33 | 25 | +8 | 46 |
| 5 | Sacachispas | 30 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 46 |
| 6 | Estrella Del Sur | 30 | 31 | 29 | +2 | 44 |
| 7 | Mercedes | 30 | 29 | 23 | +6 | 43 |
| 8 | Puerto Nuevo | 30 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 38 |
| 9 | Argentino Rosario | 30 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 24 |
| 10 | Leandro N. Alem | 29 | 27 | 50 | -23 | 28 |
| 11 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 29 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 36 |
| 12 | Victoriano Arenas | 30 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 41 |
| 13 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 30 | 22 | 38 | -16 | 31 |
| 14 | JJ Urquiza | 29 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 29 |
