Puerto Nuevo vs Centro Español Statistics & Analysis

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      "afp_draw_prob": 0.3046,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.2923,
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.39,
      "away_win_prob": 0.4031,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.4031,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
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      "btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
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      "draw_prob_posterior": 0.3046,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.48,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.48,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.28,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.28,
      "fair_odds_home": 3.42,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 3.42,
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      "home_win_prob": 0.2923,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.2923,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Centro Espa\u00f1ol",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Centro Espa\u00f1ol"
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    "away_xg": 1.39,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Centro Espa\u00f1ol",
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        "confidence": "low",
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        "edge": -0.0228,
        "edge_gap": 0.0983,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4258,
        "model_prob": 0.403,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 40.3,
          "draw": 30.5,
          "home": 29.2
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.11
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        "best_odds": 2.11,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
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        "display_market": "Centro Espa\u00f1ol Win",
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        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.35,
        "market_odds": 2.11,
        "model_odds": 2.48,
        "overround": 11.3,
        "prob_edge": -7.1,
        "value_pct": -14.9,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 5,
        "away_played": 15,
        "away_score_rate": 75.1,
        "home_clean_sheet": 7,
        "home_failed_to_score": 4,
        "home_played": 15,
        "home_score_rate": 70.2,
        "no_prob": 45.7,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.3,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.3
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      "correct_score": {
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            "away": 2,
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          {
            "away": 1,
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            "label": "2-1",
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          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Puerto Nuevo or Draw",
            "prob": 59.7
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Puerto Nuevo or Centro Espa\u00f1ol",
            "prob": 69.5
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Centro Espa\u00f1ol",
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        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
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        "lean_label": "Centro Espa\u00f1ol"
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      "over_under": {
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        "home_avg_scored": 0.9,
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        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Puerto Nuevo Win",
        "model_prob": 29.2,
        "odds": 3.58
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Centro Espa\u00f1ol",
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      "early_capture": "PRE30",
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      "home_team": "Puerto Nuevo",
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          "closing_implied_pct": 25.1,
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          "model_pct": 29.23
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          "closing_implied_pct": 32.32,
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          "closing_implied_pct": 42.58,
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          "closing_implied_pct": 64.74,
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        {
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        {
          "closing": 1.4,
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      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.21,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.2322,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -23.2,
          "text": "-23.2%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.2217,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 22.2,
          "text": "+22.2%"
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          "text": "+25%+"
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          "raw_pct": -6.0,
          "text": "-6.0%"
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        "model_prob": 0.403,
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        "sort_key": 1785.025,
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        "alert_breadth": "8/12",
        "alert_breadth_note": "8/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +12.9%",
        "alert_team": "Puerto Nuevo",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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        "has_alert": true,
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        "hero_label": "Puerto Nuevo",
        "market_prob_pct": 42.6,
        "market_team": "Centro Espa\u00f1ol",
        "model_prob_pct": 40.3,
        "model_team": "Centro Espa\u00f1ol",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable prediction",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 64,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 4.13,
          "fair_prob": 29.23,
          "label": "Puerto Nuevo",
          "market_prob": 25.1,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -1.86,
          "fair_prob": 30.46,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 32.32,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -2.27,
          "fair_prob": 40.31,
          "label": "Centro Espa\u00f1ol",
          "market_prob": 42.58,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 12.46,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 35.74,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -12.46,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 64.26,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 11.29,
          "fair_prob": 54.3,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 43.01,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -11.29,
          "fair_prob": 45.7,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 56.99,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "aligned",
        "edge_pp": 4.13,
        "fair_prob_pct": 29.23,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Puerto Nuevo",
        "market_prob_pct": 25.1,
        "status": "market_efficient",
        "steam_team_name": "Puerto Nuevo"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "market_efficient",
          "max_gap_pp": 4.13,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "Aligned",
        "edge_label_key": "aligned",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Centro Espa\u00f1ol",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 42.6,
          "model_prob_pct": 40.3,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Centro Espa\u00f1ol, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Draw remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 4.13,
        "hero_label": "Puerto Nuevo",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Puerto Nuevo odds lengthened \u2191 +12.9%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Puerto Nuevo.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Puerto Nuevo."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "Recent line movement on Puerto Nuevo (\u2191 +12.9%) aligns with the pricing gap."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 4.13,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.9 pp (at 40.3%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 9.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 40.3,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 4.13,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.23,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Puerto Nuevo",
            "market_prob_pct": 25.1,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -1.86,
            "fair_prob_pct": 30.46,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 32.32,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -2.27,
            "fair_prob_pct": 40.31,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Centro Espa\u00f1ol",
            "market_prob_pct": 42.58,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_efficient",
        "status_label": "Market Efficient",
        "steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Puerto Nuevo.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Centro Espa\u00f1ol (42.6%).",
          "However, Puerto Nuevo has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +12.9%, 8/12).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Centro Espa\u00f1ol, Market \u2192 Centro Espa\u00f1ol, Recent sharp money \u2192 Puerto Nuevo.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 27.93,
        "closing_odds": 3.58,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 27.93,
        "entry_odds": 3.58,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 8,
        "books_total": 12,
        "breadth_display": "8/12",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.5,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
        "move_pct_abs": 12.9,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 53m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Puerto Nuevo (12.9%, 8/12) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.65 \u2192 2.88 \u2192 3.50",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 53m",
          "pick_team": "Puerto Nuevo",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.65"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.88"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.50"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.1,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Puerto Nuevo \u2191 +12.9% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Puerto Nuevo",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Puerto Nuevo \u2191 +12.9% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 64,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "8/12",
        "current_odds": 3.5,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
        "open_odds": 3.1,
        "pick_team": "Puerto Nuevo",
        "steam_score": 64,
        "steam_team_name": "Puerto Nuevo",
        "steam_tier": "A"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 4.1,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
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        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
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      "league_country": "Argentina",
      "league_id": 132,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/132.webp",
      "league_name": "Primera C",
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      "status_long": "Not Started",
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      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
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          "side_label": "Centro Espa\u00f1ol"
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      "teams": {
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-14T18:32:09.689885+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}