Central Ballester vs Canuelas Statistics & Analysis

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      "afp_away_win_prob": 0.4116,
      "afp_draw_prob": 0.3042,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.2842,
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.4,
      "away_win_prob": 0.4116,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.4116,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.457,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.3042,
      "draw_prob_posterior": 0.3042,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.43,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.43,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.29,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.29,
      "fair_odds_home": 3.52,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 3.52,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.2,
      "home_win_prob": 0.2842,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.2842,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Canuelas",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Canuelas"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.4,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Canuelas",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.026,
        "edge_gap": 0.1076,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4377,
        "model_prob": 0.4117,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 41.2,
          "draw": 30.4,
          "home": 28.4
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.03
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.03,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Canuelas Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.28,
        "market_odds": 2.03,
        "model_odds": 2.43,
        "overround": 12.5,
        "prob_edge": -8.1,
        "value_pct": -16.5,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 5,
        "away_failed_to_score": 3,
        "away_played": 15,
        "away_score_rate": 75.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 7,
        "home_failed_to_score": 8,
        "home_played": 15,
        "home_score_rate": 69.9,
        "no_prob": 45.7,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.3,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.3
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.4,
        "home_expected": 1.2,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.5
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 10.4
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          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 8.9
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          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 8.7
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 7.5
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Central Ballester or Draw",
            "prob": 58.8
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Central Ballester or Canuelas",
            "prob": 69.6
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Canuelas",
            "prob": 71.6
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Canuelas",
        "pick_prob": 71.6
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 41.2,
        "draw_pct": 30.4,
        "home_pct": 28.4,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Canuelas"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 0.9,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.6,
        "under_prob": 51.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 8.8,
        "implied_prob": 26.1,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Central Ballester Win",
        "model_prob": 28.4,
        "odds": 3.83
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Canuelas",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Central Ballester",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 23.2,
          "gap_pp": 5.22,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 28.42
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 33.03,
          "gap_pp": -2.62,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 30.41
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 43.77,
          "gap_pp": -2.6,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 41.17
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 30.84,
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          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 48.2
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 69.16,
          "gap_pp": -17.36,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 51.8
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      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 3.83,
          "early": 3.83,
          "implied_closing_pct": 23.2,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 23.2,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
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        {
          "closing": 2.69,
          "early": 2.69,
          "implied_closing_pct": 33.03,
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          "implied_early_pct": 33.03,
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          "early": 2.03,
          "implied_closing_pct": 43.77,
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          "implied_early_pct": 43.77,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
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          "closing": 2.96,
          "early": 2.96,
          "implied_closing_pct": 30.84,
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          "closing": 1.32,
          "early": 1.32,
          "implied_closing_pct": 69.16,
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          "implied_early_pct": 69.16,
          "kind": "ou_u"
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      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 17.4,
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    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.5
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.2,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.2642,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -26.4,
          "text": "-26.4%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.4227,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 42.3,
          "text": "+25%+"
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        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 54.3
      },
      {
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        "ev_over": 0.446,
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          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 44.6,
          "text": "+25%+"
        },
        "ev_under": -0.2748,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -27.5,
          "text": "-27.5%"
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        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.4377,
        "max_ev": -0.0562,
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          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -5.6,
          "text": "-5.6%"
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        "model_prob": 0.4117,
        "side_label": "Canuelas",
        "sort_key": 1785.95,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
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      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.5,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.5
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    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "10/12",
        "alert_breadth_note": "10/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +10.3%",
        "alert_team": "Central Ballester",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 5.2,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 5.22,
        "hero_label": "Central Ballester",
        "market_prob_pct": 43.8,
        "market_team": "Canuelas",
        "model_prob_pct": 41.2,
        "model_team": "Canuelas",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable prediction",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 64,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 5.22,
          "fair_prob": 28.42,
          "label": "Central Ballester",
          "market_prob": 23.2,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -2.61,
          "fair_prob": 30.42,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 33.03,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -2.61,
          "fair_prob": 41.16,
          "label": "Canuelas",
          "market_prob": 43.77,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 16.17,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 32.03,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -16.17,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 67.97,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 15.41,
          "fair_prob": 54.3,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 38.89,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -15.41,
          "fair_prob": 45.7,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 61.11,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 5.22,
        "fair_prob_pct": 28.42,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Central Ballester",
        "market_prob_pct": 23.2,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Central Ballester"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 5.22,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Canuelas",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 43.8,
          "model_prob_pct": 41.2,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Canuelas, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Draw remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 5.22,
        "hero_label": "Central Ballester",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Central Ballester odds lengthened \u2191 +10.3%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Central Ballester.",
          "note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Central Ballester.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Central Ballester.",
            "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Central Ballester."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Central Ballester.",
            "Recent line movement on Central Ballester (\u2191 +10.3%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (10/12) supports the current market view on Central Ballester."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 5.22,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.7 pp (at 41.2%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 10.7,
          "max_prob_pct": 41.2,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 5.22,
            "fair_prob_pct": 28.42,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Central Ballester",
            "market_prob_pct": 23.2,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -2.61,
            "fair_prob_pct": 30.42,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 33.03,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -2.61,
            "fair_prob_pct": 41.16,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Canuelas",
            "market_prob_pct": 43.77,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Central Ballester.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Canuelas (43.8%).",
          "However, Central Ballester has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +10.3%, 10/12).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Canuelas, Market \u2192 Canuelas, Recent sharp money \u2192 Central Ballester.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 26.11,
        "closing_odds": 3.83,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 26.11,
        "entry_odds": 3.83,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 10,
        "books_total": 12,
        "breadth_display": "10/12",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.75,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
        "move_pct_abs": 10.3,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 53m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Central Ballester (10.3%, 10/12) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.88 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 3.75",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 53m",
          "pick_team": "Central Ballester",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.88"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.90"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.75"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.3",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.4,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Central Ballester \u2191 +10.3% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Central Ballester",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Central Ballester \u2191 +10.3% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 64,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "10/12",
        "current_odds": 3.75,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
        "open_odds": 3.4,
        "pick_team": "Central Ballester",
        "steam_score": 64,
        "steam_team_name": "Central Ballester",
        "steam_tier": "A"
      },
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        "current_divergence_pp": 5.2,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 1947,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1947.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Canuelas",
      "country_code": "AR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
      "country_name": "Argentina",
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      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Argentina",
      "home_team_id": 1967,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1967.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Central Ballester",
      "league_country": "Argentina",
      "league_id": 132,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/132.webp",
      "league_name": "Primera C",
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      "match_date": "2026-06-14 18:30:00",
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      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
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          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
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          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
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            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "home": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "ev_available": true,
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          "implied_no": 0.6111,
          "implied_yes": 0.3889,
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          "reliability": "medium"
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          "edge_over": 0.1617,
          "edge_under": -0.1617,
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          "implied_over": 0.3203,
          "implied_under": 0.6797,
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
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        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
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      "confidence": 6.0,
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
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          "pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
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          "draw_prob": 0.3041,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4117,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.2
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "edge": -0.0112,
          "ev": -0.1343,
          "implied_prob": 0.4377,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4117,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Canuelas"
        },
        "btts": {
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          "implied_prob": 0.3889,
          "model_prob": 0.543,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1617,
          "ev": 0.446,
          "implied_prob": 0.3203,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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      },
      "match_id": 1499941,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.446,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
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        "draw": 0.3041,
        "home": 0.2842
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      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
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      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.446,
        "implied_prob": 0.3203,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "secondary"
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      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "implied_prob": 0.3203,
          "market": "ou_2_5",
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          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "over",
          "slot": "secondary"
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      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Canuelas",
        "home": "Central Ballester"
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      "top_pick": {
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        "model_prob": 0.543,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-14T18:30:27.607776+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}