Sportivo Italiano vs Excursionistas Statistics & Analysis

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      "afp_away_win_prob": 0.3194,
      "afp_draw_prob": 0.3107,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.3699,
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.21,
      "away_win_prob": 0.3194,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3194,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.457,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.3107,
      "draw_prob_posterior": 0.3107,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.13,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 3.13,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.22,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.22,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.7,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.7,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.39,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3699,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.3699,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Excursionistas",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "50%",
      "percent_draw": "50%",
      "percent_home": "0%",
      "winner_name": "Excursionistas"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.21,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Sportivo Italiano",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.0622,
        "edge_gap": 0.0509,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.308,
        "model_prob": 0.3702,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 31.9,
          "draw": 31.0,
          "home": 37.0
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.94
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.94,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Sportivo Italiano Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 3.25,
        "market_odds": 2.94,
        "model_odds": 2.7,
        "overround": 10.4,
        "prob_edge": 3.0,
        "value_pct": 8.9,
        "value_rating": "small_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 9,
        "away_failed_to_score": 4,
        "away_played": 19,
        "away_score_rate": 70.2,
        "home_clean_sheet": 7,
        "home_failed_to_score": 6,
        "home_played": 19,
        "home_score_rate": 75.1,
        "no_prob": 45.7,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.3,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.3
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.21,
        "home_expected": 1.39,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
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            "prob": 12.5
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          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
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            "prob": 10.3
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
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            "prob": 9.0
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.7
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 7.6
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Sportivo Italiano or Draw",
            "prob": 68.1
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Sportivo Italiano or Excursionistas",
            "prob": 68.9
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Excursionistas",
            "prob": 63.0
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Sportivo Italiano or Excursionistas",
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      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 31.9,
        "draw_pct": 31.1,
        "home_pct": 37.0,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Sportivo Italiano"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.4,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.1,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.6,
        "under_prob": 51.8
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      "prob_source": "poisson",
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        "edge": 8.9,
        "implied_prob": 34.0,
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        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Sportivo Italiano Win",
        "model_prob": 37.0,
        "odds": 2.94
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Excursionistas",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Sportivo Italiano",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 30.8,
          "gap_pp": 6.22,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 37.02
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 35.79,
          "gap_pp": -4.75,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 31.04
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 33.41,
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 30.14,
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 69.86,
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      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 2.94,
          "early": 2.94,
          "implied_closing_pct": 30.8,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 30.8,
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        {
          "closing": 2.53,
          "early": 2.53,
          "implied_closing_pct": 35.79,
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          "implied_early_pct": 35.79,
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          "closing": 2.71,
          "early": 2.71,
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        {
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        {
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      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 18.1,
        "kind": "ou_o"
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    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.5
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.39,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
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        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.4797,
        "ev_over_display": {
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          "raw_pct": 48.0,
          "text": "+25%+"
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          "raw_pct": -29.5,
          "text": "-29.5%"
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          "raw_pct": -26.9,
          "text": "-26.9%"
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          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 29.2,
          "text": "+25%+"
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          "raw_pct": -2.0,
          "text": "-2.0%"
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        "model_prob": 0.3702,
        "side_label": "Sportivo Italiano",
        "sort_key": 1795.025,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
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        "featured": false,
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        "top_label": "1-1",
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    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "9/12",
        "alert_breadth_note": "9/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2193 -7.4%",
        "alert_team": "Draw",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 6.2,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 6.19,
        "hero_label": "Sportivo Italiano",
        "market_prob_pct": 30.8,
        "market_team": "Draw",
        "model_prob_pct": 37.0,
        "model_team": "Sportivo Italiano",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable forecast",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 50,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 6.19,
          "fair_prob": 36.99,
          "label": "Sportivo Italiano",
          "market_prob": 30.8,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -4.72,
          "fair_prob": 31.07,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 35.79,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -1.47,
          "fair_prob": 31.94,
          "label": "Excursionistas",
          "market_prob": 33.41,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 16.14,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 32.06,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -16.14,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 67.94,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 13.53,
          "fair_prob": 54.3,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 40.77,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -13.53,
          "fair_prob": 45.7,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 59.23,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 6.19,
        "fair_prob_pct": 36.99,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Sportivo Italiano",
        "market_prob_pct": 30.8,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Draw"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 6.19,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Sportivo Italiano",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
          "market_prob_pct": 30.8,
          "model_prob_pct": 37.0,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Sportivo Italiano, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Excursionistas remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 6.19,
        "hero_label": "Sportivo Italiano",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -7.4%.",
        "market_agreement": "moderate",
        "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 7.4%.",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Sportivo Italiano.",
          "note": "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 7.4%.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Sportivo Italiano.",
            "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 7.4%.",
            "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 7.4%."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Sportivo Italiano.",
            "At the same time, Draw has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 7.4%.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (9/12) supports the current market view on Draw."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 6.19,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.1 pp (at 37.0%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 5.1,
          "max_prob_pct": 37.0,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 6.19,
            "fair_prob_pct": 36.99,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Sportivo Italiano",
            "market_prob_pct": 30.8,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -4.72,
            "fair_prob_pct": 31.07,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 35.79,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -1.47,
            "fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Excursionistas",
            "market_prob_pct": 33.41,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 7.4%.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Draw (30.8%).",
          "However, Draw has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -7.4%, 9/12).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Sportivo Italiano, Market \u2192 Draw, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 34.01,
        "closing_odds": 2.94,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 34.01,
        "entry_odds": 2.94,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 9,
        "books_total": 12,
        "breadth_display": "9/12",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.5,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -7.4%",
        "move_pct_abs": 7.4,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 57m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Bet365 led repricing on Draw (7.4%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
          "A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "2.88 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 2.50",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 57m",
          "pick_team": "Draw",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.88"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.50"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.50"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,15.3 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "down",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.7,
        "page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 9/12 sportsbooks on Draw",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Draw",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a1",
        "signal_key": "sharp_led",
        "signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
        "steam_score": 50,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "9/12",
        "current_odds": 2.5,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -7.4%",
        "open_odds": 2.7,
        "pick_team": "Draw",
        "steam_score": 50,
        "steam_team_name": "Draw",
        "steam_tier": "B"
      },
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        "current_divergence_pp": 6.2,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 8385,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8385.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Excursionistas",
      "country_code": "AR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
      "country_name": "Argentina",
      "fixture_id": 1499472,
      "goals_away": 1,
      "goals_home": 0,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Argentina",
      "home_team_id": 8388,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8388.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Sportivo Italiano",
      "league_country": "Argentina",
      "league_id": 131,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/131.webp",
      "league_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-13 18:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Second Half",
      "status_short": "2H",
      "venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
      "venue_name": "Republica de Italia Stadium"
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    "match_decision": {
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          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
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            "best_odd": 2.71,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0065,
            "ev": -0.1121,
            "implied_prob": 0.3341,
            "model_prob": 0.3194,
            "p_final": 0.3276
          },
          "draw": {
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            "best_odd": 2.53,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0198,
            "ev": -0.1447,
            "implied_prob": 0.3579,
            "model_prob": 0.3104,
            "p_final": 0.3381
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
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            "best_odd": 2.94,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": 0.0254,
            "ev": -0.0199,
            "implied_prob": 0.308,
            "model_prob": 0.3702,
            "p_final": 0.3334
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 2.38,
          "edge_no": -0.1353,
          "edge_yes": 0.1353,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2688,
          "ev_yes": 0.2923,
          "implied_no": 0.5923,
          "implied_yes": 0.4077,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 3.07,
          "best_under_odd": 1.36,
          "edge_over": 0.1614,
          "edge_under": -0.1614,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.4797,
          "ev_under": -0.2955,
          "implied_over": 0.3206,
          "implied_under": 0.6794,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
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    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.4797,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
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      "execution": {
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
          "draw_prob": 0.3104,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3702,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.18
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0254,
          "ev": -0.0199,
          "implied_prob": 0.308,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.3702,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Sportivo Italiano"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1353,
          "ev": 0.2923,
          "implied_prob": 0.4077,
          "model_prob": 0.543,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1614,
          "ev": 0.4797,
          "implied_prob": 0.3206,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1499472,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.4797,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3194,
        "draw": 0.3104,
        "home": 0.3702
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2923,
        "implied_prob": 0.4077,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.543,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.2923,
          "implied_prob": 0.4077,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.543,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
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      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Excursionistas",
        "home": "Sportivo Italiano"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.161851,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.4797,
        "implied_prob": 0.3206,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  },
  "fixture_id": 1499472,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T20:50:41.126240+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}