Deportivo Camioneros vs Arsenal Sarandi Statistics & Analysis

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      "afp_draw_prob": 0.3078,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.3448,
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
      "away_win_prob": 0.3474,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3474,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
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      "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.3078,
      "draw_prob_posterior": 0.3078,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.88,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.88,
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      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.25,
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      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.9,
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      "home_win_prob": 0.3448,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.3448,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : Deportivo Camioneros or draw and -3.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Deportivo Camioneros"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.28,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Arsenal Sarandi",
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      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
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        "edge": -0.0091,
        "edge_gap": 0.0024,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3564,
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        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 34.7,
          "draw": 30.8,
          "home": 34.5
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.54
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        "best_odds": 2.54,
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        "display_market": "Arsenal Sarandi Win",
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        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.81,
        "market_odds": 2.54,
        "model_odds": 2.88,
        "overround": 10.5,
        "prob_edge": -4.6,
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        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 10,
        "away_failed_to_score": 5,
        "away_played": 19,
        "away_score_rate": 72.2,
        "home_clean_sheet": 11,
        "home_failed_to_score": 8,
        "home_played": 19,
        "home_score_rate": 73.3,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.5
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.28,
        "home_expected": 1.32,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
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          },
          {
            "away": 0,
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            "away": 1,
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          {
            "away": 1,
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          },
          {
            "away": 2,
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            "prob": 8.0
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Deportivo Camioneros or Draw",
            "prob": 65.3
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Deportivo Camioneros or Arsenal Sarandi",
            "prob": 69.2
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Arsenal Sarandi",
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          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
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      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 34.7,
        "draw_pct": 30.8,
        "home_pct": 34.5,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Arsenal Sarandi"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "away_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.1,
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        "pick": "Over 2.5",
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        "under_prob": 51.8
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      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "edge": -11.8,
        "implied_prob": 39.4,
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        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Arsenal Sarandi Win",
        "model_prob": 34.7,
        "odds": 2.54
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Arsenal Sarandi",
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      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Deportivo Camioneros",
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          "closing_implied_pct": 31.44,
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          "model_pct": 30.78
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          "closing_implied_pct": 35.64,
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          "closing_implied_pct": 68.54,
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          "closing": 2.88,
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          "closing": 2.75,
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          "closing": 1.34,
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        "label": "1-1",
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.32,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "ev_no_display": {
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          "raw_pct": -25.8,
          "text": "-25.8%"
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        "ev_yes": 0.2971,
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          "capped": true,
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        "yes_prob": 54.5
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        "model_prob": 0.3473,
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        "tier": "bad_ev"
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      {
        "featured": false,
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        "alert_breadth": "9/12",
        "alert_breadth_note": "9/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +21.4%",
        "alert_team": "Arsenal Sarandi",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 3.0,
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        "hero_edge_pp": 3.04,
        "hero_label": "Deportivo Camioneros",
        "market_prob_pct": 35.6,
        "market_team": "Arsenal Sarandi",
        "model_prob_pct": 34.7,
        "model_team": "Arsenal Sarandi",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable forecast",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 92,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 3.04,
          "fair_prob": 34.48,
          "label": "Deportivo Camioneros",
          "market_prob": 31.44,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -2.14,
          "fair_prob": 30.78,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 32.92,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -0.9,
          "fair_prob": 34.74,
          "label": "Arsenal Sarandi",
          "market_prob": 35.64,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 15.3,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 32.9,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -15.3,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 67.1,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 13.66,
          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 40.84,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -13.66,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 59.16,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "aligned",
        "edge_pp": 3.04,
        "fair_prob_pct": 34.48,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Deportivo Camioneros",
        "market_prob_pct": 31.44,
        "status": "market_efficient",
        "steam_team_name": "Arsenal Sarandi"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "market_efficient",
          "max_gap_pp": 3.04,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "Aligned",
        "edge_label_key": "aligned",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Arsenal Sarandi",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 35.6,
          "model_prob_pct": 34.7,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Arsenal Sarandi, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Deportivo Camioneros remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 3.04,
        "hero_label": "Deportivo Camioneros",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Arsenal Sarandi odds lengthened \u2191 +21.4%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Arsenal Sarandi has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "Drift away from Arsenal Sarandi \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.4% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "However, Arsenal Sarandi has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Arsenal Sarandi \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.4% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "At the same time, Arsenal Sarandi has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (9/12) supports the current market view on Arsenal Sarandi."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 3.04,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.3 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 0.3,
          "max_prob_pct": 34.7,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 3.04,
            "fair_prob_pct": 34.48,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Deportivo Camioneros",
            "market_prob_pct": 31.44,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -2.14,
            "fair_prob_pct": 30.78,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 32.92,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -0.9,
            "fair_prob_pct": 34.74,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Arsenal Sarandi",
            "market_prob_pct": 35.64,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_efficient",
        "status_label": "Market Efficient",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Arsenal Sarandi \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.4% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Arsenal Sarandi (35.6%).",
          "However, Arsenal Sarandi has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +21.4%, 9/12).",
          "The model and market both lean Arsenal Sarandi, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Deportivo Camioneros remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 34.72,
        "closing_odds": 2.88,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 34.72,
        "entry_odds": 2.88,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 9,
        "books_total": 12,
        "breadth_display": "9/12",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.55,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +21.4%",
        "move_pct_abs": 21.4,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 57m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "9/12 books synchronized on Arsenal Sarandi (21.4% steam, score 92) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
          "Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "2.62 \u2192 2.00 \u2192 2.55",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 57m",
          "pick_team": "Arsenal Sarandi",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.62"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.00"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.55"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.4 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.1,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Arsenal Sarandi \u2191 +21.4% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Arsenal Sarandi",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Arsenal Sarandi \u2191 +21.4% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "steam",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
        "signal_key": "strong_steam",
        "signal_label": "Strong steam",
        "steam_score": 92,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "9/12",
        "current_odds": 2.55,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +21.4%",
        "open_odds": 2.1,
        "pick_team": "Arsenal Sarandi",
        "steam_score": 92,
        "steam_team_name": "Arsenal Sarandi",
        "steam_tier": "A+"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 3.0,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
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      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/459.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Arsenal Sarandi",
      "country_code": "AR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
      "country_name": "Argentina",
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      "goals_home": 1,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Argentina",
      "home_team_id": 3943,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3943.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Deportivo Camioneros",
      "league_country": "Argentina",
      "league_id": 131,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/131.webp",
      "league_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-13 18:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Second Half",
      "status_short": "2H",
      "venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
      "venue_name": "Hugo Moyano"
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          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
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          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
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        "score": 5.5
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "edge_over": 0.153,
          "edge_under": -0.153,
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          "implied_under": 0.671,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      "variance_flag": false
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      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
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          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
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        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
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          "draw_prob": 0.3078,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3473,
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          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.04
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        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.3473,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Arsenal Sarandi"
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        "btts": {
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          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
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          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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      },
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      "match_regime": {
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        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.4364,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
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      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
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        "home": 0.3449
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        "market": "ou_2_5",
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        "side": "over",
        "slot": "secondary"
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          "not_dominant": true,
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      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Arsenal Sarandi",
        "home": "Deportivo Camioneros"
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        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
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        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T20:49:39.830600+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}