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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Deportivo Maipú Deportivo Maipú ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.2
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Deportivo Maipú win · Nueva Chicago 0–1 Deportivo Maipú
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"content_hash": "07d5b626359e6d291253ba289c4b2aad98b9e60dc7c73381d436589efb85b876",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"away_win_prob": 0.3801,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.63,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.09,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"home_win_prob": 0.3239,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Deportivo Maip\u00fa and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa"
},
"away_xg": 1.36,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0944,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.286,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 38.0,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.4
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"odd": 3.2
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.2,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"display_market": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.5,
"market_odds": 3.2,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 9.3,
"prob_edge": 6.8,
"value_pct": 21.7,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 9,
"away_failed_to_score": 11,
"away_played": 30,
"away_score_rate": 74.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 10,
"home_failed_to_score": 16,
"home_played": 30,
"home_score_rate": 71.1,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.36,
"home_expected": 1.24,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Nueva Chicago or Draw",
"prob": 62.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Nueva Chicago or Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"prob": 67.6
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Nueva Chicago or Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 38.0,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.4,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"edge": 21.7,
"implied_prob": 31.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa Win",
"model_prob": 38.0,
"odds": 3.2
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 28.6,
"draw": 33.28,
"home": 38.13
},
"closing_bookmaker": "bet365 us",
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-05 19:50:13",
"closing_source": "oddsportal",
"early_bookmaker": "bet365 us",
"early_capture": "PRE20",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-05 19:40:49",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Nueva Chicago",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.13,
"gap_pp": -5.76,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.28,
"gap_pp": -3.68,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.6,
"gap_pp": 9.44,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.03
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.4,
"early": 2.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.13,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.13,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.75,
"early": 2.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.28,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.28,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.2,
"early": 3.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.6,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.2,
"ev": -0.25,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.0,
"market_prob": 0.1667,
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.24,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1372,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.845,
"edge": 0.0218,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"market_prob": 0.3234,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1372,
"best_odd": 2.845,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.018,
"implied_prob": 0.3234,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3452
},
"p_final": 0.3452,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3713,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.018,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1886,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0299,
"ev": -0.1205,
"implied_prob": 0.6766,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6467
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4797,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 48.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2748,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.5,
"text": "-27.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.4797,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10581.73,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1415,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0202,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.4016,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1946,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0277,
"ev": -0.1268,
"implied_prob": 0.5984,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5707
},
"p_final": 0.4217,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2403,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0384,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1415,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4217
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2704,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.0,
"text": "-27.0%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2947,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 29.5,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2947,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10265.23,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 3.2,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0071,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.7,
"text": "-0.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0071,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.7,
"text": "-0.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.217,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+21.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"sort_key": 1798.225,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"alert_team": "Nueva Chicago",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.41,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"market_prob_pct": 28.6,
"market_team": "Nueva Chicago",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Maip\u00fa)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Maip\u00fa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4797,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4797,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Maip\u00fa at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Maip\u00fa as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +48.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +48.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+48.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Maip\u00fa).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0071,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.2,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3125,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.217,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+21.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 90,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.41,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.41,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.24,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.24 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"steam_team": "Nueva Chicago",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Maip\u00fa).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Maip\u00fa)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Maip\u00fa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4797,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4797,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Maip\u00fa at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Maip\u00fa as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +48.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +48.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+48.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Maip\u00fa).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0071,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.2,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3125,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.217,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+21.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Nueva Chicago 1.24 xG vs Deportivo Maip\u00fa 1.36 \u2192 Deportivo Maip\u00fa 38.0%",
"Market: Nueva Chicago ~28.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Nueva Chicago odds \u2191 +11.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Deportivo Maip\u00fa with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.74,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Nueva Chicago",
"market_prob": 38.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.69,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.28,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.41,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"market_prob": 28.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.04,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 32.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.04,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 67.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.12,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 40.28,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.12,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"market_prob_pct": 28.6,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Nueva Chicago"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Deportivo Maip\u00fa\u0027s win probability at 38.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 28.6%, a difference of 9.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.41,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.4,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Nueva Chicago 1.24 xG vs Deportivo Maip\u00fa 1.36 \u2192 Deportivo Maip\u00fa 38.0%",
"Market: Nueva Chicago ~28.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Nueva Chicago odds \u2191 +11.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Deportivo Maip\u00fa with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.41,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Nueva Chicago odds lengthened \u2191 +11.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Nueva Chicago has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Deportivo Maip\u00fa.",
"note": "Drift away from Nueva Chicago \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Deportivo Maip\u00fa.",
"However, Nueva Chicago has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Nueva Chicago \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Deportivo Maip\u00fa.",
"At the same time, Nueva Chicago has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Nueva Chicago."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.41,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.4,
"lead": "The model rates Deportivo Maip\u00fa considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.74,
"edge_pp": -5.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Nueva Chicago",
"market_prob_pct": 38.13,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.69,
"edge_pp": -3.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.28,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.41,
"edge_pp": 9.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"market_prob_pct": 28.6,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Nueva Chicago \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Nueva Chicago (28.6%).",
"Nueva Chicago odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +11.4%, 9/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Deportivo Maip\u00fa, Market \u2192 Nueva Chicago, while Nueva Chicago odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 31.25,
"closing_odds": 3.2,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 31.25,
"entry_odds": 3.2,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.7
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 36m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Nueva Chicago (11.4%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.59",
"2.40",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.58 \u2192 2.17 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 36m",
"pick_team": "Nueva Chicago",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.58"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.17"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.2,
2.59,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.5",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.59"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.2,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on Nueva Chicago",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Nueva Chicago",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Nueva Chicago",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Nueva Chicago",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_team_name": "Nueva Chicago",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "deportivo-maipu",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"away_team_id": 1954,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1954.webp",
"away_team_name": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"away_team_public_id": "1K3f7KnjmKrjaV",
"away_team_slug": "deportivo-maipu",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498858,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Nueva Chicago",
"home_team_id": 484,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/484.webp",
"home_team_name": "Nueva Chicago",
"home_team_public_id": "4Z5afq7yqAsWRr",
"home_team_slug": "nueva-chicago",
"ht.home_team_slug": "nueva-chicago",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_public_id": "1KcpmJJ27Hbo5G",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-05 20:00:00",
"public_id": "4XLenXCSHWxzQf",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Estadio Nueva Chicago"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2575,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0243,
"ev": -0.0071,
"implied_prob": 0.286,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.286,
"draw": 0.3328,
"home": 0.3813
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.3103
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4252,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.128,
"implied_prob": 0.3328,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.286,
"draw": 0.3328,
"home": 0.3813
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.3171
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4111,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1417,
"implied_prob": 0.3813,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.286,
"draw": 0.3328,
"home": 0.3813
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3576
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.2,
"edge": 0.0678,
"ev": 0.2171,
"implied_prob": 0.3125,
"model_prob": 0.3803
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": -0.0677,
"ev": -0.1862,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.0929,
"ev": -0.2231,
"implied_prob": 0.4167,
"model_prob": 0.3237
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1946,
"alpha_yes": 0.1415,
"best_no_odd": 1.6,
"best_yes_odd": 2.38,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1412,
"edge_yes": 0.1412,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2704,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1268,
"ev_yes": 0.2947,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0384,
"implied_no": 0.5972,
"implied_yes": 0.4028,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1946,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0277,
"ev": -0.1268,
"implied_prob": 0.5984,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5707
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1415,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4217
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5707,
"p_final_yes": 0.4217,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1372,
"alpha_under": 0.1886,
"best_over_odd": 3.07,
"best_under_odd": 1.4,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.845,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.36,
"edge_over": 0.1604,
"edge_under": -0.1604,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4797,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.018,
"ev_under": -0.2748,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1205,
"implied_over": 0.3216,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3234,
"implied_under": 0.6784,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6766,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1372,
"best_odd": 2.845,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.018,
"implied_prob": 0.3234,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3452
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1886,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0299,
"ev": -0.1205,
"implied_prob": 0.6766,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6467
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3452,
"p_final_under": 0.6467,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4797,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4797,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4797,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Maip\u00fa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4797,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4797,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Maip\u00fa at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Maip\u00fa as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +48.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +48.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+48.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Maip\u00fa).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0071,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.2,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3125,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.217,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+21.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.2,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0243,
"ev": -0.0071,
"implied_prob": 0.286,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1415,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0202,
"market_prob": 0.4016,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1946,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0277,
"ev": -0.1268,
"implied_prob": 0.5984,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5707
},
"p_final": 0.4217,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0384,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1415,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4217
}
},
"edge": 0.1412,
"ev": 0.2947,
"implied_prob": 0.4028,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1372,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.845,
"edge": 0.0218,
"market_prob": 0.3234,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1372,
"best_odd": 2.845,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.018,
"implied_prob": 0.3234,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3452
},
"p_final": 0.3452,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.018,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1886,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0299,
"ev": -0.1205,
"implied_prob": 0.6766,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6467
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1604,
"ev": 0.4797,
"implied_prob": 0.3216,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498858,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4797,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3803,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3237
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2947,
"implied_prob": 0.4028,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2947,
"implied_prob": 0.4028,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"home": "Nueva Chicago"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.161851,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4797,
"implied_prob": 0.3216,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0071,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.2,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3125,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.217,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+21.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498858,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-05T19:59:06.295642+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Nueva Chicago & Deportivo Maipú!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera Nacional — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 61 |
| 2 | Deportivo Morón | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 58 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 56 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 32 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 53 |
| 5 | Colón Santa Fe | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 52 |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 46 |
| 7 | CA Estudiantes | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 45 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 45 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 40 |
| 10 | Chaco For Ever | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 11 | Defensores de Belgrano | 32 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 37 |
| 12 | San Telmo | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 13 | Racing Córdoba | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 14 | Atlético Mitre | 32 | 7 | 14 | 11 | 35 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 32 | 6 | 15 | 11 | 33 |
| 16 | All Boys | 32 | 6 | 15 | 11 | 33 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 31 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 29 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 32 | 51 | 32 | +19 | 58 |
| 2 | Deportivo Madryn | 32 | 46 | 28 | +18 | 53 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 32 | 42 | 29 | +13 | 56 |
| 4 | Colón Santa Fe | 32 | 39 | 25 | +14 | 52 |
| 5 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 32 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 61 |
| 6 | Chaco For Ever | 32 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 37 |
| 7 | CA Estudiantes | 32 | 29 | 27 | +2 | 45 |
| 8 | Racing Córdoba | 32 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 37 |
| 9 | Atlético Mitre | 32 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 35 |
| 10 | San Telmo | 32 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 37 |
| 11 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 32 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 45 |
| 12 | Almirante Brown | 32 | 25 | 21 | +4 | 46 |
| 13 | Los Andes | 32 | 25 | 23 | +2 | 40 |
| 14 | Defensores de Belgrano | 32 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 37 |
| 15 | San Miguel | 32 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 31 |
| 16 | Acassuso | 32 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 29 |
| 17 | Central Norte | 32 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 33 |
| 18 | All Boys | 32 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 33 |
