Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Chaco For Ever Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.9
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Atlético Mitre 0–0 Chaco For Ever
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "76920a09ec7ad8e541558632e0725ff0cdb528b0cbcb02a237510bb3ab6f62e9",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"away_win_prob": 0.3659,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.73,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.96,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"home_win_prob": 0.3377,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Atl\u00e9tico Mitre or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre"
},
"away_xg": 1.33,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Chaco For Ever",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1218,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2442,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.9
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.9,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Chaco For Ever Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.09,
"market_odds": 3.9,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": 11.0,
"value_pct": 42.9,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 10,
"away_failed_to_score": 10,
"away_played": 28,
"away_score_rate": 73.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 10,
"home_failed_to_score": 9,
"home_played": 28,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.33,
"home_expected": 1.27,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre or Draw",
"prob": 63.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre or Chaco For Ever",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Chaco For Ever",
"prob": 66.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre or Chaco For Ever",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Chaco For Ever"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 42.9,
"implied_prob": 25.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Chaco For Ever Win",
"model_prob": 36.6,
"odds": 3.9
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Chaco For Ever",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 24.42,
"draw": 32.29,
"home": 43.29
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 18:59:23",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 18:30:36",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.29,
"gap_pp": -9.54,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.29,
"gap_pp": -2.64,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.42,
"gap_pp": 12.18,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.41,
"gap_pp": 15.79,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 67.59,
"gap_pp": -15.79,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.2,
"early": 2.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.29,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.29,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.95,
"early": 2.95,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.29,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.29,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.9,
"early": 3.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.42,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.42,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.92,
"early": 2.92,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.41,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.4,
"early": 1.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 67.59,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 67.59,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.2,
"ev": -0.25,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.0,
"market_prob": 0.1667,
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0214,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"market_prob": 0.3373,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0134,
"implied_prob": 0.3373,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3588
},
"p_final": 0.3588,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3255,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0134,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2035,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0294,
"ev": -0.1135,
"implied_prob": 0.6627,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6332
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4074,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 40.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2696,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.0,
"text": "-27.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.4074,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10516.66,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.151,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0202,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.411,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2076,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0278,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5612
},
"p_final": 0.4312,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2263,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0297,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.151,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0297,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4312
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2629,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.3,
"text": "-26.3%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2372,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 23.7,
"text": "+23.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2372,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10213.48,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Chaco For Ever, but the model still strongly favours Chaco For Ever.",
"consensus_odds": 3.9,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0689,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.9,
"text": "+6.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2442,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0689,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.9,
"text": "+6.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4274,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+42.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Chaco For Ever",
"sort_key": 10062.01,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"alert_team": "Chaco For Ever",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 12.17,
"hero_label": "Chaco For Ever",
"market_prob_pct": 24.4,
"market_team": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Chaco For Ever",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 0,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chaco For Ever, but the model still strongly favours Chaco For Ever."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chaco For Ever, but the model still strongly favours Chaco For Ever."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4074,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4273,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chaco For Ever at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chaco For Ever as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Chaco For Ever, but the model still strongly favours Chaco For Ever.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chaco For Ever",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +40.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +40.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +40.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+40.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Chaco For Ever, but the model still strongly favours Chaco For Ever.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Chaco For Ever, but the model still strongly favours Chaco For Ever.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0689,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2442,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25641025641025644,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4274,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+42.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.08333333333333333,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 0.8,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 53,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.17,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.17,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"steam_team": "Chaco For Ever",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Chaco For Ever, but the model still strongly favours Chaco For Ever.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chaco For Ever, but the model still strongly favours Chaco For Ever."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chaco For Ever, but the model still strongly favours Chaco For Ever."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4074,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4273,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chaco For Ever at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chaco For Ever as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Chaco For Ever, but the model still strongly favours Chaco For Ever.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chaco For Ever",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +40.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +40.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +40.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+40.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Chaco For Ever, but the model still strongly favours Chaco For Ever.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Chaco For Ever, but the model still strongly favours Chaco For Ever.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0689,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2442,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25641025641025644,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4274,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+42.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Chaco For Ever, but the model still strongly favours Chaco For Ever.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atl\u00e9tico Mitre 1.27 xG vs Chaco For Ever 1.33 \u2192 Chaco For Ever 36.6%",
"Market: Atl\u00e9tico Mitre ~24.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Chaco For Ever odds \u2191 +2.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Chaco For Ever, but the market has moved away from Chaco For Ever.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.52,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
"market_prob": 43.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.65,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.17,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Chaco For Ever",
"market_prob": 24.42,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.93,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.27,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.93,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.73,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.15,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.15,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 58.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 12.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Chaco For Ever",
"market_prob_pct": 24.42,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Chaco For Ever"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Chaco For Ever\u0027s win probability at 36.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 24.4%, a difference of 12.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 12.17,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Chaco For Ever",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 24.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+12.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 12.2,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+12.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 53,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chaco For Ever, but the model still strongly favours Chaco For Ever. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atl\u00e9tico Mitre 1.27 xG vs Chaco For Ever 1.33 \u2192 Chaco For Ever 36.6%",
"Market: Atl\u00e9tico Mitre ~24.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Chaco For Ever odds \u2191 +2.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Chaco For Ever, but the market has moved away from Chaco For Ever.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 12.17,
"hero_label": "Chaco For Ever",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Chaco For Ever odds lengthened \u2191 +2.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Chaco For Ever.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Chaco For Ever.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Chaco For Ever more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Chaco For Ever (\u2191 +2.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/12), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.17,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Chaco For Ever",
"largest_gap_pp": 12.2,
"lead": "The model rates Chaco For Ever considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.52,
"edge_pp": -9.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
"market_prob_pct": 43.29,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.65,
"edge_pp": -2.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.29,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 12.17,
"edge_pp": 12.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Chaco For Ever",
"market_prob_pct": 24.42,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Atl\u00e9tico Mitre (24.4%).",
"Chaco For Ever odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.7%, 1/12) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Chaco For Ever, Market \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Mitre, while Chaco For Ever odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.64,
"closing_odds": 3.9,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.64,
"entry_odds": 3.9,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "1/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.8,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest closing-window shift",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 15m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Chaco For Ever (swing 3.90 \u2192 3.26 \u2192 3.80) \u2014 net 2.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.90",
"3.80",
"3.70"
],
"display": "3.90 \u2192 3.26 \u2192 3.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 15m",
"pick_team": "Chaco For Ever",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.26"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.7,
3.9,
3.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.7,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Chaco For Ever",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.8,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"summary": "Market moved away from Chaco For Ever while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Chaco For Ever",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 0,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/12",
"current_odds": 3.8,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"pick_team": "Chaco For Ever",
"steam_score": 0,
"steam_team_name": "Chaco For Ever",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "chaco-for-ever",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Chaco For Ever",
"away_team_id": 1946,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1946.webp",
"away_team_name": "Chaco For Ever",
"away_team_public_id": "4QDtXMX8ePVsWb",
"away_team_slug": "chaco-for-ever",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498798,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
"home_team_id": 466,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/466.webp",
"home_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
"home_team_public_id": "2jqaraZ9AfZsNx",
"home_team_slug": "atletico-mitre",
"ht.home_team_slug": "atletico-mitre",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_public_id": "1KcpmJJ27Hbo5G",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 19:00:00",
"public_id": "5VkjWcAw2ANjfi",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Santiago del Estero",
"venue_name": "Estadio Aurinegro"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2452,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0299,
"ev": 0.0689,
"implied_prob": 0.2442,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2442,
"draw": 0.3229,
"home": 0.4329
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.2741
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4322,
"best_odd": 2.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.0812,
"implied_prob": 0.3229,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2442,
"draw": 0.3229,
"home": 0.4329
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3115
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3856,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0368,
"ev": -0.1285,
"implied_prob": 0.4329,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2442,
"draw": 0.3229,
"home": 0.4329
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3961
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.9,
"edge": 0.1096,
"ev": 0.4273,
"implied_prob": 0.2564,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.95,
"edge": -0.0425,
"ev": -0.1254,
"implied_prob": 0.339,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.117,
"ev": -0.2574,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2076,
"alpha_yes": 0.151,
"best_no_odd": 1.62,
"best_yes_odd": 2.27,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1315,
"edge_yes": 0.1315,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2629,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1189,
"ev_yes": 0.2372,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0297,
"implied_no": 0.5865,
"implied_yes": 0.4135,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2076,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0278,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5612
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.151,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0297,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4312
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"p_final_no": 0.5612,
"p_final_yes": 0.4312,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.148,
"alpha_under": 0.2035,
"best_over_odd": 2.92,
"best_under_odd": 1.41,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.75,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.4,
"edge_over": 0.1493,
"edge_under": -0.1493,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4074,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0134,
"ev_under": -0.2696,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1135,
"implied_over": 0.3327,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3373,
"implied_under": 0.6673,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6627,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0134,
"implied_prob": 0.3373,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3588
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2035,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0294,
"ev": -0.1135,
"implied_prob": 0.6627,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6332
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3588,
"p_final_under": 0.6332,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4074,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4273,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4074,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chaco For Ever, but the model still strongly favours Chaco For Ever."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4074,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4273,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chaco For Ever at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chaco For Ever as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Chaco For Ever, but the model still strongly favours Chaco For Ever.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chaco For Ever",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +40.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +40.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +40.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+40.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Chaco For Ever, but the model still strongly favours Chaco For Ever.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Chaco For Ever, but the model still strongly favours Chaco For Ever.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0689,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2442,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25641025641025644,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4274,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+42.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.9,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0299,
"ev": 0.0689,
"implied_prob": 0.2442,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Chaco For Ever"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.151,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0202,
"market_prob": 0.411,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2076,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0278,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5612
},
"p_final": 0.4312,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0297,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.151,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0297,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4312
}
},
"edge": 0.1315,
"ev": 0.2372,
"implied_prob": 0.4135,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0214,
"market_prob": 0.3373,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0134,
"implied_prob": 0.3373,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3588
},
"p_final": 0.3588,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0134,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2035,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0294,
"ev": -0.1135,
"implied_prob": 0.6627,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6332
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1493,
"ev": 0.4074,
"implied_prob": 0.3327,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498798,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4074,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2372,
"implied_prob": 0.4135,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2372,
"implied_prob": 0.4135,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Chaco For Ever",
"home": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.137457,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4074,
"implied_prob": 0.3327,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0689,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2442,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25641025641025644,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4274,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+42.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498798,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T18:59:25.497257+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Atlético Mitre & Chaco For Ever!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera Nacional — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 61 |
| 2 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 55 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 53 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | Colón Santa Fe | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 46 |
| 7 | CA Estudiantes | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 45 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 42 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 40 |
| 10 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 11 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Racing Córdoba | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 13 | San Telmo | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 34 |
| 14 | All Boys | 31 | 6 | 15 | 10 | 33 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 16 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 31 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 31 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 29 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 55 |
| 2 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 50 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 53 |
| 4 | Colón Santa Fe | 31 | 38 | 25 | +13 | 49 |
| 5 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 36 | 25 | +11 | 61 |
| 6 | CA Estudiantes | 31 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 45 |
| 7 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 36 |
| 8 | Racing Córdoba | 31 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
| 10 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 42 |
| 11 | San Telmo | 31 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 34 |
| 12 | San Miguel | 31 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 31 |
| 13 | Los Andes | 31 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 40 |
| 14 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 46 |
| 15 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 36 |
| 16 | Acassuso | 31 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 29 |
| 17 | Central Norte | 31 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 32 |
| 18 | All Boys | 31 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 33 |
