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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 All Boys San Telmo ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.69
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
San Telmo win · All Boys 0–1 San Telmo
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "4b70ab2cf52db06e6a0ddc5036410450b1e948b18bfdc9abbbe86c74f2793c6f",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.16,
"away_win_prob": 0.2881,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.46,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2931,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.47,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.41,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.39,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.44,
"home_win_prob": 0.4188,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : All Boys or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "All Boys"
},
"away_xg": 1.16,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "All Boys",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1413,
"edge_gap": 0.1252,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5598,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 28.8,
"draw": 29.3,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.69
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.69,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "All Boys Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.79,
"market_odds": 1.69,
"model_odds": 2.39,
"overround": 5.7,
"prob_edge": -17.3,
"value_pct": -29.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 10,
"away_failed_to_score": 14,
"away_played": 28,
"away_score_rate": 68.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 13,
"home_failed_to_score": 14,
"home_played": 28,
"home_score_rate": 76.3,
"no_prob": 46.0,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.16,
"home_expected": 1.44,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "All Boys or Draw",
"prob": 71.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "All Boys or San Telmo",
"prob": 70.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or San Telmo",
"prob": 58.1
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "All Boys or Draw",
"pick_prob": 71.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 28.8,
"draw_pct": 29.3,
"home_pct": 41.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "All Boys"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 74.5,
"implied_prob": 16.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "San Telmo Win",
"model_prob": 28.8,
"odds": 6.06
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "San Telmo",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 15.61,
"draw": 28.41,
"home": 55.98
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 18:29:19",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 18:05:43",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "All Boys",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.98,
"gap_pp": -14.13,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.85
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.41,
"gap_pp": 0.92,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.33
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 15.61,
"gap_pp": 13.21,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 28.82
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.93,
"gap_pp": 17.27,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 69.07,
"gap_pp": -17.27,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.69,
"early": 1.69,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.98,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.98,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.33,
"early": 3.33,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.41,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 6.06,
"early": 6.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 15.61,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 15.61,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 3.06,
"early": 3.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.93,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.93,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.37,
"early": 1.37,
"implied_closing_pct": 69.07,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 69.07,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.9,
"ev": -0.07,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.44,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1337,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"edge": 0.0261,
"edge_pp": 2.6,
"market_prob": 0.3448,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1838,
"best_odd": 1.405,
"edge": -0.0359,
"ev": -0.1298,
"implied_prob": 0.6552,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.6193
},
"p_final": 0.3709,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4418,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0098,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1337,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"edge": 0.0261,
"ev": -0.0098,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.3709
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2962,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -29.6,
"text": "-29.6%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.512,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 51.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.512,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 46.0,
"sort_key": 10610.8,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.0
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1424,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.92,
"edge": 0.0234,
"edge_pp": 2.3,
"market_prob": 0.3178,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1424,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": -0.0038,
"implied_prob": 0.3178,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3412
},
"p_final": 0.3412,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4074,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0038,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1959,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.6822,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6501
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4942,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 49.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2593,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.9,
"text": "-25.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.4942,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10444.78,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.69,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1669,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.7,
"text": "-16.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5598,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0744,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.4,
"text": "+7.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2927,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "All Boys",
"sort_key": 5259.52,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "10/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "10/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"alert_team": "San Telmo",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.1,
"hero_label": "All Boys",
"market_prob_pct": 56.0,
"market_team": "All Boys",
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"model_team": "All Boys",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (All Boys)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (All Boys)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.512,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7467,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates All Boys at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 56.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies All Boys as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "All Boys",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side All Boys \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +75% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1498793 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +51.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +51.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +51.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +51.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+51.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (All Boys).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +75% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1669,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.69,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5598,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.591715976331361,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2927,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "10/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7692307692307693,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 67,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.1,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.1,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.16,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.44,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.44,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.44 \u00b7 Away xG 1.16 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"steam_team": "San Telmo",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (All Boys)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (All Boys)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.512,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7467,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates All Boys at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 56.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies All Boys as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "All Boys",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side All Boys \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +75% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1498793 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +51.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +51.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +51.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +51.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+51.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (All Boys).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +75% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1669,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.69,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5598,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.591715976331361,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2927,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: All Boys 1.44 xG vs San Telmo 1.16 \u2192 All Boys 41.9%",
"Market: All Boys ~56.0% implied",
"Market Drift: San Telmo odds \u2191 +14.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean All Boys with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.1,
"fair_prob": 41.88,
"label": "All Boys",
"market_prob": 55.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"fair_prob": 29.31,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.2,
"fair_prob": 28.81,
"label": "San Telmo",
"market_prob": 15.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.39,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.81,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.39,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.19,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.07,
"fair_prob": 54.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 34.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.07,
"fair_prob": 46.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 65.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "All Boys",
"market_prob_pct": 55.98,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "San Telmo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates All Boys\u0027s win probability at 56.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 14.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.1,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "All Boys",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 56.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.1,
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 67,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "All Boys \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: All Boys 1.44 xG vs San Telmo 1.16 \u2192 All Boys 41.9%",
"Market: All Boys ~56.0% implied",
"Market Drift: San Telmo odds \u2191 +14.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean All Boys with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.1,
"hero_label": "All Boys",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "San Telmo odds lengthened \u2191 +14.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, San Telmo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about All Boys than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from San Telmo \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about All Boys than the current fair estimate.",
"However, San Telmo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from San Telmo \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors All Boys more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, San Telmo has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (10/13) supports the current market view on San Telmo."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.1,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.6 pp (at 41.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.6,
"max_prob_pct": 41.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "All Boys",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices All Boys higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.1,
"edge_pp": -14.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "All Boys",
"market_prob_pct": 55.98,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.9,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.41,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 13.2,
"edge_pp": 13.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "San Telmo",
"market_prob_pct": 15.61,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from San Telmo \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers All Boys (56.0%).",
"San Telmo odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +14.3%, 10/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"All Boys \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 59.17,
"closing_odds": 1.69,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 59.17,
"entry_odds": 1.69,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "10/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 6.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 128h 8m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on San Telmo (14.3%, 10/13) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.06",
"5.65",
"5.25"
],
"display": "6.06 \u2192 4.10 \u2192 6.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 128h 8m",
"pick_team": "San Telmo",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.06"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.25,
6.06,
6.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.06"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.25,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 10/13 sportsbooks on San Telmo",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "San Telmo",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 6.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"open_odds": 5.25,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "San Telmo",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/13",
"current_odds": 6.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"open_odds": 5.25,
"pick_team": "San Telmo",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_team_name": "San Telmo",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "san-telmo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "San Telmo",
"away_team_id": 1932,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1932.webp",
"away_team_name": "San Telmo",
"away_team_public_id": "3NPkJeKgZIg1NF",
"away_team_slug": "san-telmo",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498793,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "All Boys",
"home_team_id": 464,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/464.webp",
"home_team_name": "All Boys",
"home_team_public_id": "1QfpSa6sjSATpZ",
"home_team_slug": "all-boys",
"ht.home_team_slug": "all-boys",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_public_id": "1KcpmJJ27Hbo5G",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 18:30:00",
"public_id": "4KTyHuWsYnt6jJ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Floresta",
"venue_name": "Islas Malvinas Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1604,
"best_odd": 6.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0212,
"ev": 0.0744,
"implied_prob": 0.1561,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1561,
"draw": 0.2841,
"home": 0.5598
},
"model_prob": 0.2882,
"p_final": 0.1773
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2959,
"best_odd": 3.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0027,
"ev": -0.0449,
"implied_prob": 0.2841,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1561,
"draw": 0.2841,
"home": 0.5598
},
"model_prob": 0.2933,
"p_final": 0.2868
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4728,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0668,
"ev": -0.1669,
"implied_prob": 0.5598,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1561,
"draw": 0.2841,
"home": 0.5598
},
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"p_final": 0.493
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 6.06,
"edge": 0.1232,
"ev": 0.7467,
"implied_prob": 0.165,
"model_prob": 0.2882
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.33,
"edge": -0.007,
"ev": -0.0233,
"implied_prob": 0.3003,
"model_prob": 0.2933
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.1732,
"ev": -0.2928,
"implied_prob": 0.5917,
"model_prob": 0.4185
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1838,
"alpha_yes": 0.1337,
"best_no_odd": 1.53,
"best_yes_odd": 2.8,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1907,
"edge_yes": 0.1907,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2962,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1298,
"ev_yes": 0.512,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0098,
"implied_no": 0.6507,
"implied_yes": 0.3493,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1838,
"best_odd": 1.405,
"edge": -0.0359,
"ev": -0.1298,
"implied_prob": 0.6552,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.6193
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1337,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"edge": 0.0261,
"ev": -0.0098,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.3709
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.6193,
"p_final_yes": 0.3709,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1424,
"alpha_under": 0.1959,
"best_over_odd": 3.1,
"best_under_odd": 1.43,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.92,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.36,
"edge_over": 0.1639,
"edge_under": -0.1639,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4942,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0038,
"ev_under": -0.2593,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1159,
"implied_over": 0.3181,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3178,
"implied_under": 0.6819,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6822,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1424,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": -0.0038,
"implied_prob": 0.3178,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3412
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1959,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.6822,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6501
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3412,
"p_final_under": 0.6501,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.512,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7467,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.512,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (All Boys)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.512,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7467,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates All Boys at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 56.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies All Boys as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "All Boys",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side All Boys \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +75% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1498793 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +51.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +51.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +51.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +51.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+51.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (All Boys).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +75% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1669,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.69,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5598,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.591715976331361,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2927,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"draw_prob": 0.2933,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4185,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0744,
"implied_prob": 0.1561,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.2882,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "San Telmo",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.69,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0668,
"ev": -0.1669,
"implied_prob": 0.5598,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "All Boys"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1337,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"edge": 0.0261,
"market_prob": 0.3448,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1838,
"best_odd": 1.405,
"edge": -0.0359,
"ev": -0.1298,
"implied_prob": 0.6552,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.6193
},
"p_final": 0.3709,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0098,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1337,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"edge": 0.0261,
"ev": -0.0098,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.3709
}
},
"edge": 0.1907,
"ev": 0.512,
"implied_prob": 0.3493,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1424,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.92,
"edge": 0.0234,
"market_prob": 0.3178,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1424,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": -0.0038,
"implied_prob": 0.3178,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3412
},
"p_final": 0.3412,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0038,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1959,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.6822,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6501
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1639,
"ev": 0.4942,
"implied_prob": 0.3181,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498793,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.512,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2882,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.4185
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4942,
"implied_prob": 0.3181,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4942,
"implied_prob": 0.3181,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "San Telmo",
"home": "All Boys"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.27648,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.512,
"implied_prob": 0.3493,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1669,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.69,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5598,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.591715976331361,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2927,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498793,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T18:29:21.171354+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho All Boys & San Telmo!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera Nacional — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 61 |
| 2 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 55 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 53 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | Colón Santa Fe | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 46 |
| 7 | CA Estudiantes | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 45 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 42 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 40 |
| 10 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 11 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Racing Córdoba | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 13 | San Telmo | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 34 |
| 14 | All Boys | 31 | 6 | 15 | 10 | 33 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 16 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 31 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 31 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 29 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 55 |
| 2 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 50 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 53 |
| 4 | Colón Santa Fe | 31 | 38 | 25 | +13 | 49 |
| 5 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 36 | 25 | +11 | 61 |
| 6 | CA Estudiantes | 31 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 45 |
| 7 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 36 |
| 8 | Racing Córdoba | 31 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
| 10 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 42 |
| 11 | San Telmo | 31 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 34 |
| 12 | San Miguel | 31 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 31 |
| 13 | Los Andes | 31 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 40 |
| 14 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 46 |
| 15 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 36 |
| 16 | Acassuso | 31 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 29 |
| 17 | Central Norte | 31 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 32 |
| 18 | All Boys | 31 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 33 |
