Thống kê / Bóng đá / Argentina. Primera Nacional / Atlético Mitre vs Los Andes

Atlético Mitre vs Los Andes Statistics & Analysis

Jun 14, 2026 - 19:00
0 1.37
3 1.23
xG Accuracy: 42%
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay

Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian

Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.

  • Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
  • Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
  • Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
  • 1X2 Atlético Mitre Los Andes ✖ Không đúng
  • Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Không đúng

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 04:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1818872

Closing Odds 2.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Los Andes win · Atlético Mitre 0–3 Los Andes
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Thông tin thị trường

Đọc bổ sung sau lựa chọn chính: feed đóng kèo ưu tiên đã thay đổi so với mô hình thế nào.

Tóm tắt thị trường

Thị trường khá ổn định trước giờ bóng lăn. Không thấy dịch chuyển implied đáng kể giữa PRE30 và PRE1 trên snapshot ưu tiên.

Dù biến động muộn hạn chế, mô hình vẫn định giá Atlético Mitre (1X2),Los Andes (1X2),Trên 2,5 bàn cao hơn rõ rệt so với implied từ các snapshot đóng kèo — đây là bức tranh tĩnh «mô hình so với giá», không phải câu chuyện đuổi dòng muộn.

Mô hình vẫn cao hơn implied đóng kèo ở Trên 2,5 bàn khoảng 21.1 điểm phần trăm — tín hiệu lệch giá rõ nhất trên trang này.

Mô hình so với xác suất ngầm lúc đóng kèo

Thị trường Mô hình % Ngầm đóng kèo % Chênh (pp)
Atlético Mitre (1X2) 37.6 35.4 +2.2
Vẽ tranh (1X2) 31.4 35.8 -4.5
Los Andes (1X2) 31.0 28.7 +2.3
Trên 2,5 bàn 48.2 27.1 +21.1
Dưới 2,5 bàn 51.8 72.9 -21.1
Ý nghĩa đơn giản

Nói dễ hiểu: mô hình khoảng 48.2% cho Trên 2,5 bàn, trong khi snapshot đóng kèo ngầm khoảng 27.1%. Chênh lệch — khoảng 21.1 điểm phần trăm — là khoảng cách mô hình–thị trường lớn nhất được nhấn mạnh trên trang này.

Giải thích nhanh: «ngầm đóng kèo» là xác suất suy ra từ kèo chụp cuối (sau khi bỏ vig đơn giản). «Chênh (pp)» = % mô hình trừ % ngầm đó, tính theo điểm phần trăm (pp).

Biến động kèo trước giờ bóng lăn

Một nhà cái ưu tiên mỗi snapshot (không phải toàn thị trường). Đường dẫn chụp: PRE30 → PRE1 · Nhà cái: Pinnacle

Trong ngoặc trên cột: Closing = snapshot đầu tiên khả dụng theo PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early = snapshot đầu tiên trong PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 khác Closing.

Kèo chi tiết được gấp bên dưới — biến động implied (đã bỏ vig) không đáng kể.

Xem bảng đầy đủ từng dòng
Thị trường Sớm (PRE30) Sát giờ (PRE1) Δ ngầm (pp)
Atlético Mitre (1X2) 2.69 2.69 0.0
Vẽ tranh (1X2) 2.66 2.66 0.0
Los Andes (1X2) 3.32 3.32 0.0
Trên 2,5 bàn 3.5 3.5 0.0
Dưới 2,5 bàn 1.3 1.3 0.0

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        {
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          "outcome": "no"
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        "hero_team_name": "Draw",
        "market_prob_pct": 35.84,
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        "steam_team_name": "Los Andes"
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        "degraded_note": "",
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          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
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        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
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        "forecast_assessment": {
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          "favourite_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 35.4,
          "model_prob_pct": 37.6,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Atl\u00e9tico Mitre, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Draw remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -4.5,
        "hero_label": "Draw",
        "hero_side": "draw",
        "market_activity": "Los Andes odds shortened \u2193 -1.5%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
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            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
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          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "However, recent buying interest has been on Los Andes, with odds shortening by 1.5%. Confirmation remains limited (1/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
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            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "At the same time, Los Andes has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 1.5%.",
            "Market confirmation remains limited (1/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 4.5,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.3 pp (at 37.6%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 6.3,
          "max_prob_pct": 37.6,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 2.21,
            "fair_prob_pct": 37.65,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
            "market_prob_pct": 35.44,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -4.5,
            "fair_prob_pct": 31.34,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 35.84,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 2.28,
            "fair_prob_pct": 31.0,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Los Andes",
            "market_prob_pct": 28.72,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Aligned",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Draw (35.4%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Mitre, Market \u2192 Draw, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 37.59,
        "closing_odds": 2.66,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 37.59,
        "entry_odds": 2.66,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "1/13",
        "current_odds": 3.2,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -1.5%",
        "open_odds": 3.25,
        "pick_team": "Los Andes",
        "steam_score": 4,
        "steam_team_name": "Los Andes",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 4.5,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 483,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/483.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Los Andes",
      "country_code": "AR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
      "country_name": "Argentina",
      "fixture_id": 1498598,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Argentina",
      "home_team_id": 466,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/466.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
      "league_country": "Argentina",
      "league_id": 129,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
      "league_name": "Primera Nacional",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-14 19:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Santiago del Estero",
      "venue_name": "Estadio Aurinegro"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2898,
            "best_odd": 3.32,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0066,
            "ev": -0.0247,
            "implied_prob": 0.2872,
            "model_prob": 0.3099,
            "p_final": 0.2938
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.4199,
            "best_odd": 2.66,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0187,
            "ev": -0.0965,
            "implied_prob": 0.3584,
            "model_prob": 0.3138,
            "p_final": 0.3397
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4352,
            "best_odd": 2.69,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0095,
            "ev": -0.021,
            "implied_prob": 0.3544,
            "model_prob": 0.3763,
            "p_final": 0.3639
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.53,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.55,
          "edge_no": -0.1646,
          "edge_yes": 0.1646,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.3023,
          "ev_yes": 0.3872,
          "implied_no": 0.6206,
          "implied_yes": 0.3794,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 3.5,
          "best_under_odd": 1.35,
          "edge_over": 0.1973,
          "edge_under": -0.1973,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.687,
          "ev_under": -0.3007,
          "implied_over": 0.2847,
          "implied_under": 0.7153,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.687,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
          "draw_prob": 0.3138,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3763,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.14
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0095,
          "ev": -0.021,
          "implied_prob": 0.3544,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.3763,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1646,
          "ev": 0.3872,
          "implied_prob": 0.3794,
          "model_prob": 0.544,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1973,
          "ev": 0.687,
          "implied_prob": 0.2847,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1498598,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.687,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3099,
        "draw": 0.3138,
        "home": 0.3763
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3872,
        "implied_prob": 0.3794,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.544,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.3872,
          "implied_prob": 0.3794,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.544,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Los Andes",
        "home": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.231794,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.687,
        "implied_prob": 0.2847,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1498598,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-14T18:59:04.815631+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Atlético Mitre & Los Andes!

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Primera Nacional Primera Nacional — Bảng xếp hạng
# Đội Tr T H B Đ
1 Ferro Carril Oeste 31 18 7 6 61
2 Deportivo Morón 31 16 7 8 55
3 Godoy Cruz 31 15 8 8 53
4 Deportivo Madryn 31 13 11 7 50
5 Colón Santa Fe 31 13 10 8 49
6 Almirante Brown 31 12 10 9 46
7 CA Estudiantes 31 12 9 10 45
8 Ciudad de Bolívar 31 10 12 9 42
9 Los Andes 31 9 13 9 40
10 Chaco For Ever 31 9 9 13 36
11 Defensores de Belgrano 31 8 12 11 36
12 Racing Córdoba 31 9 9 13 36
13 San Telmo 31 8 10 13 34
14 All Boys 31 6 15 10 33
15 Central Norte 31 6 14 11 32
16 Atlético Mitre 31 6 14 11 32
17 San Miguel 31 6 13 12 31
18 Acassuso 31 7 8 16 29
# Đội Tr BT BB +/- Đ
1 Deportivo Morón 31 49 31 +18 55
2 Deportivo Madryn 31 44 28 +16 50
3 Godoy Cruz 31 40 28 +12 53
4 Colón Santa Fe 31 38 25 +13 49
5 Ferro Carril Oeste 31 36 25 +11 61
6 CA Estudiantes 31 29 26 +3 45
7 Chaco For Ever 31 28 31 -3 36
8 Racing Córdoba 31 28 38 -10 36
9 Atlético Mitre 31 27 39 -12 32
10 Ciudad de Bolívar 31 26 28 -2 42
11 San Telmo 31 25 34 -9 34
12 San Miguel 31 25 36 -11 31
13 Los Andes 31 24 21 +3 40
14 Almirante Brown 31 23 18 +5 46
15 Defensores de Belgrano 31 23 27 -4 36
16 Acassuso 31 22 34 -12 29
17 Central Norte 31 19 28 -9 32
18 All Boys 31 17 26 -9 33