Dečić vs Arsenal Tivat Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": null,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.438,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": null,
      "fair_odds_away": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": null,
      "fair_odds_home": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
      "home_win_prob": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.506,
      "prediction_confidence": "none",
      "under_25_prob": 0.494
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : De\u010di\u0107 or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "De\u010di\u0107"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.25,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "De\u010di\u0107",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.0707,
        "edge_gap": 0.092,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.347,
        "model_prob": 0.4177,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 32.6,
          "draw": 25.7,
          "home": 41.8
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
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      "market_comparison": [],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
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    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 12,
        "away_failed_to_score": 15,
        "away_played": 34,
        "away_score_rate": 55.9,
        "home_clean_sheet": 10,
        "home_failed_to_score": 11,
        "home_played": 34,
        "home_score_rate": 67.6,
        "no_prob": 62.2,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 62.2,
        "source": "stats",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 37.8
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      "correct_score": {
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        "home_expected": 1.2,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 13.2
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 12.0
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 11.0
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          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-0",
            "prob": 10.0
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 7.9
          }
        ],
        "source": "avg"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "De\u010di\u0107 or Draw",
            "prob": 90.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "De\u010di\u0107 or Arsenal Tivat",
            "prob": 55.0
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Arsenal Tivat",
            "prob": 55.0
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "De\u010di\u0107 or Draw",
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      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 10.0,
        "draw_pct": 45.0,
        "home_pct": 45.0,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "De\u010di\u0107"
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      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.3,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "over_prob": 40.4,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 59.6,
        "source": "avg",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 2.3,
        "under_prob": 59.6
      },
      "prob_source": null,
      "value_bet_enhanced": null
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Arsenal Tivat",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "De\u010di\u0107",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
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          "closing_implied_pct": 34.7,
          "gap_pp": 7.07,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 41.77
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 28.81,
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          "model_pct": 25.67
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          "closing_implied_pct": 36.5,
          "gap_pp": -3.93,
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          "closing_implied_pct": 41.97,
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          "model_pct": 40.4
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 58.03,
          "gap_pp": 1.57,
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      "movement": [
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          "closing": 2.64,
          "early": 2.64,
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          "implied_early_pct": 34.7,
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        {
          "closing": 3.18,
          "early": 3.18,
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 28.81,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.51,
          "early": 2.51,
          "implied_closing_pct": 36.5,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 36.5,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.24,
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          "implied_closing_pct": 41.97,
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          "kind": "ou_o"
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        {
          "closing": 1.62,
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    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 13.2
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.45,
    "homepage_pick": null,
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      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.1383,
        "ev_yes": -0.2742,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.1383,
        "no_prob": 62.2,
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        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 37.8
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    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 3742,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3742.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Arsenal Tivat",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/me.svg",
      "country_name": "Montenegro",
      "fixture_id": 1497940,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 3745,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3745.webp",
      "home_team_name": "De\u010di\u0107",
      "league_country": "Montenegro",
      "league_id": 355,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/355.webp",
      "league_name": "First League",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-20 18:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
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        "score": 6.5
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            "best_odd": 2.51,
            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "implied_prob": 0.365,
            "model_prob": 0.3257,
            "p_final": 0.3483
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          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2859,
            "best_odd": 3.18,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": -0.009,
            "ev": -0.1125,
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4023,
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.92,
          "edge_no": 0.1109,
          "edge_yes": -0.1109,
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          "ev_no": 0.1383,
          "ev_yes": -0.2742,
          "implied_no": 0.5111,
          "implied_yes": 0.4889,
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          "reliability": "medium"
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        "ou25": {
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          "edge_under": 0.018,
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          "implied_under": 0.578,
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.7,
      "variance_flag": false
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      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
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      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
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      "execution": {
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
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          "draw_prob": 0.2567,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
          "over_prob": 0.404,
          "total_xg": 2.7,
          "under_prob": 0.596,
          "xg_diff": 0.2
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
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          "decision": "no_bet",
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          "side_label": "De\u010di\u0107"
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        "btts": {
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          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
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          "decision": "lean",
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        "code": "clear_edge",
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        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3257,
        "draw": 0.2567,
        "home": 0.4177
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      "reason_codes": [
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        "high_total_goals"
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Arsenal Tivat",
        "home": "De\u010di\u0107"
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        "composite_score": 0.086023,
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        "model_prob": 0.622,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-20T18:33:54.997094+00:00",
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