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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Norrby IF Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 0-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.65
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · IK Oddevold 0–0 Norrby IF
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "54c33500ce1d4b0988f4fb750edc08882ab700576113dfc4953f4c0246fcedba",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.98,
"away_win_prob": 0.4773,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.319,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.682,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2412,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.09,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.15,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.55,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.5,
"home_win_prob": 0.2815,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.675,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.325
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : IK Oddevold or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Norrby IF",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "IK Oddevold"
},
"away_xg": 1.98,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Norrby IF",
"confidence": 47.8,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Norrby IF",
"edge": 0.2735,
"edge_gap": 0.1966,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2044,
"model_prob": 0.4779,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 47.8,
"draw": 24.1,
"home": 28.1
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Norrby IF"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 4.65
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.65,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Norrby IF Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.89,
"market_odds": 4.65,
"model_odds": 2.09,
"overround": 5.2,
"prob_edge": 26.3,
"value_pct": 122.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 16,
"away_score_rate": 86.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 16,
"home_score_rate": 77.7,
"no_prob": 31.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 68.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 68.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.98,
"home_expected": 1.5,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 6.9
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 6.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "IK Oddevold or Draw",
"prob": 52.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "IK Oddevold or Norrby IF",
"prob": 75.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Norrby IF",
"prob": 71.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "IK Oddevold or Norrby IF",
"pick_prob": 75.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 47.7,
"draw_pct": 24.1,
"home_pct": 28.1,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Norrby IF"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.48,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 67.5,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 67.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.48,
"under_prob": 32.5
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 122.5,
"implied_prob": 21.5,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Norrby IF Win",
"model_prob": 47.8,
"odds": 4.65
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Norrby IF",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 20.44,
"draw": 24.31,
"home": 55.26
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-31 16:59:37",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-31 16:29:58",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "IK Oddevold",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.26,
"gap_pp": -27.12,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 28.14
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.31,
"gap_pp": -0.24,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 24.07
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 20.44,
"gap_pp": 27.35,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 47.79
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.3,
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 67.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.7,
"gap_pp": -11.2,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 32.5
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.72,
"early": 1.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.26,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.91,
"early": 3.91,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.31,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.31,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.65,
"early": 4.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 20.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 20.44,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.7,
"early": 1.7,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.3,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.3,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.19,
"early": 2.19,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.7,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.7,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 27.4,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.1
}
},
"home_xg": 1.5,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 4.65,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1004,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.0,
"text": "+10.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2044,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1004,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.0,
"text": "+10.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4779,
"raw_edge_display": "+27.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 27.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.2222,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+122.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Norrby IF",
"sort_key": 10240.36,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 67.5,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 32.5,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 31.9,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 68.2
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 807.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 9.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"alert_team": "Norrby IF",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 27.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 27.29,
"hero_label": "Norrby IF",
"market_prob_pct": 20.4,
"market_team": "IK Oddevold",
"model_prob_pct": 47.7,
"model_team": "Norrby IF",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Norrby IF), but pricing still diverges by 27.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Norrby IF), but pricing still diverges by 27.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1004,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.012223999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Norrby IF at 47.8% vs market 20.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Norrby IF as the stronger side (47.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 27.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Norrby IF",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Norrby IF), but pricing still diverges by 27.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1004,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.65,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2044,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4779,
"raw_edge_display": "+27.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 27.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2150537634408602,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.2222,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+122.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 46.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "6/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.46153846153846156,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (27 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 11.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.6,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 52,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 27.29,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 27.29,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.98,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 47.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.5,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.98,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.50 \u00b7 Away xG 1.98 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +47%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"steam_team": "Norrby IF",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Norrby IF), but pricing still diverges by 27.3 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Norrby IF), but pricing still diverges by 27.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Norrby IF), but pricing still diverges by 27.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1004,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.012223999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Norrby IF at 47.8% vs market 20.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Norrby IF as the stronger side (47.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 27.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Norrby IF",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Norrby IF), but pricing still diverges by 27.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1004,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.65,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2044,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4779,
"raw_edge_display": "+27.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 27.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2150537634408602,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.2222,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+122.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 46.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: IK Oddevold 1.50 xG vs Norrby IF 1.98 \u2192 Norrby IF 47.7%",
"Market: IK Oddevold ~20.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Norrby IF \u2193 -3.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Norrby IF, but market pricing diverges by 27 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -27.11,
"fair_prob": 28.15,
"label": "IK Oddevold",
"market_prob": 55.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.19,
"fair_prob": 24.12,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 27.29,
"fair_prob": 47.73,
"label": "Norrby IF",
"market_prob": 20.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 67.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 32.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 68.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 31.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 27.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 47.73,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Norrby IF",
"market_prob_pct": 20.44,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Norrby IF"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Norrby IF\u0027s win probability at 47.7%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 20.4%, a difference of 27.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 27.29,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Norrby IF",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 20.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+27.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 27.3,
"model_prob_pct": 47.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+27.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 27.3,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 52,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Norrby IF \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+27.3 pp).",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: IK Oddevold 1.50 xG vs Norrby IF 1.98 \u2192 Norrby IF 47.7%",
"Market: IK Oddevold ~20.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Norrby IF \u2193 -3.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Norrby IF, but market pricing diverges by 27 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 27.29,
"hero_label": "Norrby IF",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Norrby IF odds shortened \u2193 -3.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 27.29,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 19.6 pp (at 47.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 19.6,
"max_prob_pct": 47.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Norrby IF",
"largest_gap_pp": 27.3,
"lead": "The model rates Norrby IF considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 27.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -27.11,
"edge_pp": -27.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.15,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "IK Oddevold",
"market_prob_pct": 55.26,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.19,
"edge_pp": -0.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.12,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.31,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 27.29,
"edge_pp": 27.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 47.73,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Norrby IF",
"market_prob_pct": 20.44,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers IK Oddevold (20.4%).",
"Norrby IF has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.0%, 6/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Norrby IF, Market \u2192 IK Oddevold, Recent sharp money \u2192 Norrby IF.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 21.51,
"closing_odds": 4.65,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 21.51,
"entry_odds": 4.65,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.3
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "6/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 95h 40m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Norrby IF (swing 5.10 \u2192 4.14 \u2192 4.20) \u2014 net 3.0% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.65",
"4.43",
"4.20"
],
"display": "5.10 \u2192 4.14 \u2192 4.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 95h 40m",
"pick_team": "Norrby IF",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.10"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.14"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.33,
4.65,
4.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,12.8 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.65"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.33,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Norrby IF",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Norrby IF",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/13",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"pick_team": "Norrby IF",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_team_name": "Norrby IF",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 27.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Norrby IF",
"away_team_id": 2173,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2173.webp",
"away_team_name": "Norrby IF",
"away_team_slug": "norrby-if",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1497644,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "IK Oddevold",
"home_team_id": 11674,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/11674.webp",
"home_team_name": "IK Oddevold",
"home_team_slug": "oddevold",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Superettan",
"league_id": 114,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/114.webp",
"league_name": "Superettan",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-31 17:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Uddevalla",
"venue_name": "Rimnersvallen"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1179,
"best_odd": 4.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0323,
"ev": 0.1004,
"implied_prob": 0.2044,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2044,
"draw": 0.2431,
"home": 0.5526
},
"model_prob": 0.4779,
"p_final": 0.2366
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2989,
"best_odd": 3.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0007,
"ev": -0.0524,
"implied_prob": 0.2431,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2044,
"draw": 0.2431,
"home": 0.5526
},
"model_prob": 0.2407,
"p_final": 0.2424
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3559,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0965,
"ev": -0.2156,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2044,
"draw": 0.2431,
"home": 0.5526
},
"model_prob": 0.2814,
"p_final": 0.456
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.65,
"edge": 0.2629,
"ev": 1.2224,
"implied_prob": 0.2151,
"model_prob": 0.4779
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.91,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.0589,
"implied_prob": 0.2558,
"model_prob": 0.2407
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.3,
"ev": -0.516,
"implied_prob": 0.5814,
"model_prob": 0.2814
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.48,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1004,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.2224,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1004,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 4.6,
"score_before_guard": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Norrby IF), but pricing still diverges by 27.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1004,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.012223999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Norrby IF at 47.8% vs market 20.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Norrby IF as the stronger side (47.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 27.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Norrby IF",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Norrby IF), but pricing still diverges by 27.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1004,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.65,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2044,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4779,
"raw_edge_display": "+27.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 27.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2150537634408602,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.2222,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+122.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 46.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.682,
"draw_prob": 0.2407,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4779,
"over_prob": 0.675,
"total_xg": 3.48,
"under_prob": 0.325,
"xg_diff": 0.48
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.65,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0323,
"ev": 0.1004,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2044,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4779,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Norrby IF"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.682,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.675,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1497644,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1004,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.5,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4779,
"draw": 0.2407,
"home": 0.2814
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Norrby IF",
"home": "IK Oddevold"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.038385,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1004,
"implied_prob": 0.2044,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4779,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Norrby IF",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1004,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.65,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2044,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4779,
"raw_edge_display": "+27.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 27.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2150537634408602,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.2222,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+122.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1497644,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-31T16:59:40.635268+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho IK Oddevold & Norrby IF!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Superettan — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IFK Norrköping | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 55 |
| 2 | Falkenbergs FF | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 45 |
| 3 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 44 |
| 4 | Östersunds FK | 25 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 43 |
| 5 | Landskrona BoIS | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 40 |
| 6 | IK Oddevold | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 36 |
| 7 | Östers IF | 25 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 36 |
| 8 | United Nordic | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 36 |
| 9 | Sandvikens IF | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 34 |
| 10 | Helsingborgs IF | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 30 |
| 11 | IFK Värnamo | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 29 |
| 12 | Ljungskile SK | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 28 |
| 13 | Norrby IF | 25 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 24 |
| 14 | Örebro SK | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 24 |
| 15 | IK Brage | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 23 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 25 | 6 | 1 | 18 | 19 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IFK Norrköping | 25 | 48 | 16 | +32 | 55 |
| 2 | Falkenbergs FF | 25 | 46 | 33 | +13 | 45 |
| 3 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 25 | 44 | 33 | +11 | 44 |
| 4 | Sandvikens IF | 25 | 41 | 35 | +6 | 34 |
| 5 | Landskrona BoIS | 25 | 39 | 26 | +13 | 40 |
| 6 | IK Brage | 25 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 23 |
| 7 | IK Oddevold | 25 | 38 | 34 | +4 | 36 |
| 8 | Östers IF | 25 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 36 |
| 9 | United Nordic | 25 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 36 |
| 10 | Helsingborgs IF | 25 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 30 |
| 11 | Östersunds FK | 25 | 33 | 24 | +9 | 43 |
| 12 | Ljungskile SK | 25 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 28 |
| 13 | IFK Värnamo | 25 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 29 |
| 14 | Norrby IF | 25 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 24 |
| 15 | Örebro SK | 25 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 24 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 25 | 19 | 53 | -34 | 19 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 25 | 4.8 | 2.8 | +2.0 | 44 |
| 2 | IFK Norrköping | 25 | 4.5 | 2.8 | +1.7 | 55 |
| 3 | Ljungskile SK | 25 | 1.2 | 1.1 | +0.1 | 28 |
| 4 | IK Oddevold | 25 | 1.1 | 1.2 | -0.1 | 36 |
| 5 | Landskrona BoIS | 25 | 1.6 | 2.6 | -1.0 | 40 |
| 6 | Östersunds FK | 25 | 0.6 | 3.4 | -2.8 | 43 |
| 7 | Falkenbergs FF | 25 | — | — | — | 45 |
| 8 | Östers IF | 25 | — | — | — | 36 |
| 9 | United Nordic | 25 | — | — | — | 36 |
| 10 | Sandvikens IF | 25 | — | — | — | 34 |
| 11 | Helsingborgs IF | 25 | — | — | — | 30 |
| 12 | IFK Värnamo | 25 | — | — | — | 29 |
| 13 | Norrby IF | 25 | — | — | — | 24 |
| 14 | Örebro SK | 25 | — | — | — | 24 |
| 15 | IK Brage | 25 | — | — | — | 23 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 25 | — | — | — | 19 |
