GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.404,
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      "under_25_prob": 0.518
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      "percent_home": "10%",
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          "away": 40.4,
          "draw": 28.8,
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        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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      "market_comparison": [
        {
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    },
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        "away_failed_to_score": 2,
        "away_played": 11,
        "away_score_rate": 74.8,
        "home_clean_sheet": 1,
        "home_failed_to_score": 5,
        "home_played": 11,
        "home_score_rate": 70.5,
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        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 54.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
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        ],
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      "double_chance": {
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          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "GIF Sundsvall or Draw",
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          },
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            "key": "12",
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          {
            "key": "X2",
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        "alert_breadth_note": "9/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2193 -7.7%",
        "alert_team": "GIF Sundsvall",
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        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
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        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
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          "edge_pp": 1.19,
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          "outcome": "home"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 2.93,
          "fair_prob": 28.74,
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          "outcome": "draw"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -4.11,
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          "outcome": "away"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -7.95,
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          "outcome": "over"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 7.95,
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          "market_prob": 43.85,
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          "outcome": "under"
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        {
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          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 59.46,
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          "outcome": "yes"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 5.06,
          "fair_prob": 45.6,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 40.54,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
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      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
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        "edge_pp": -4.11,
        "fair_prob_pct": 40.4,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Osters IF",
        "market_prob_pct": 44.51,
        "status": "aligned",
        "steam_team_name": "GIF Sundsvall"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "aligned",
          "max_gap_pp": 4.11,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
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        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "Aligned",
        "edge_label_key": "aligned",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Osters IF",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 44.5,
          "model_prob_pct": 40.4,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "Both lean Osters IF, but the market prices them higher (44.5% vs model 40.4%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
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        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -4.11,
        "hero_label": "Osters IF",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "GIF Sundsvall odds shortened \u2193 -7.7%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on GIF Sundsvall, with odds shortening by 7.7%.",
          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "Buying interest on GIF Sundsvall \u2014 odds shortened by 7.7%.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "However, recent buying interest has been on GIF Sundsvall, with odds shortening by 7.7%.",
            "Buying interest on GIF Sundsvall \u2014 odds shortened by 7.7%."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
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        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "At the same time, GIF Sundsvall has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 7.7%."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
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        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.5 pp (at 40.4%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 9.5,
          "max_prob_pct": 40.4,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 1.19,
            "fair_prob_pct": 30.86,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "GIF Sundsvall",
            "market_prob_pct": 29.67,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 2.93,
            "fair_prob_pct": 28.74,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 25.81,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -4.11,
            "fair_prob_pct": 40.4,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Osters IF",
            "market_prob_pct": 44.51,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Aligned",
        "steam_note": "Buying interest on GIF Sundsvall \u2014 odds shortened by 7.7%.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Osters IF (44.5%).",
          "However, GIF Sundsvall has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -7.7%, 9/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Osters IF, Market \u2192 Osters IF, Recent sharp money \u2192 GIF Sundsvall.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 46.73,
        "closing_odds": 2.14,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 46.73,
        "entry_odds": 2.14,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
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        "stages": [
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
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          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
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            "detail": "PRE1",
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          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
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        "books_reacting": 9,
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "9/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.0,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
        "move_pct_abs": 7.7,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 83h 38m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Bet365 led repricing on GIF Sundsvall (7.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
          "A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.46 \u2192 2.93 \u2192 3.00",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 83h 38m",
          "pick_team": "GIF Sundsvall",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.46"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.93"
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            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.00"
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          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 18.7,2.9 37.3,0.0 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "down",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.25,
        "page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 9/13 sportsbooks on GIF Sundsvall",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "GIF Sundsvall",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a1",
        "signal_key": "sharp_led",
        "signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
        "steam_score": 50,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
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        "breadth_display": "9/13",
        "current_odds": 3.0,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
        "open_odds": 3.25,
        "pick_team": "GIF Sundsvall",
        "steam_score": 50,
        "steam_team_name": "GIF Sundsvall",
        "steam_tier": "B"
      },
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        "current_divergence_pp": 4.1,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
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      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 2174,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2174.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Osters IF",
      "country_code": "SE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
      "country_name": "Sweden",
      "fixture_id": 1497607,
      "goals_away": 4,
      "goals_home": 0,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Sweden",
      "home_team_id": 373,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/373.webp",
      "home_team_name": "GIF Sundsvall",
      "league_country": "Sweden",
      "league_id": 114,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/114.webp",
      "league_name": "Superettan",
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      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Halftime",
      "status_short": "HT",
      "venue_city": "Sundsvall",
      "venue_name": "NP3 Arena"
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          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
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          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 6.5
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            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "home": {
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            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.62,
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          "edge_yes": -0.0506,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.0716,
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          "implied_no": 0.4054,
          "implied_yes": 0.5946,
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          "reliability": "medium"
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        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 2.25,
          "edge_over": -0.0795,
          "edge_under": 0.0795,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "implied_over": 0.5615,
          "implied_under": 0.4385,
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          "reliability": "medium"
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
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      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
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        "game_typing_module": true,
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 6.5
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
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        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
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          "draw_prob": 0.2876,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4035,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.16
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        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "edge": -0.0175,
          "ev": -0.085,
          "implied_prob": 0.4451,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.4035,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Osters IF"
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        "btts": {
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          "implied_prob": 0.4054,
          "model_prob": 0.456,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0795,
          "ev": 0.1655,
          "implied_prob": 0.4385,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
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      },
      "match_id": 1497607,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1655,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
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        "draw": 0.2876,
        "home": 0.3089
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      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Osters IF",
        "home": "GIF Sundsvall"
      },
      "top_pick": {
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        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1655,
        "implied_prob": 0.4385,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  "fixture_id": 1497607,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-15T18:22:27.967504+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}