IFK Norrkoping vs Varbergs BoIS FC Statistics & Analysis

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      "afp_draw_prob": 0.2005,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.6153,
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.35,
      "away_win_prob": 0.1841,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.1841,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.3,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.7,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2005,
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      "fair_odds_away": 5.43,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 5.43,
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      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 4.99,
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      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 1.63,
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      "home_win_prob": 0.6153,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.6153,
      "over_25_prob": 0.772,
      "prediction_confidence": "low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.228
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : IFK Norrkoping or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : IFK Norrkoping",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "IFK Norrkoping"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.35,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "IFK Norrkoping",
      "confidence": 61.5,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "high",
        "display_text": "Winner : IFK Norrkoping",
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        "edge_gap": 0.4139,
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        "model_prob": 0.6147,
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        "probabilities": {
          "away": 18.5,
          "draw": 20.1,
          "home": 61.5
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "IFK Norrkoping"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.23
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        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.34,
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        "overround": 4.8,
        "prob_edge": 16.5,
        "value_pct": 36.8,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
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        "away_clean_sheet": 4,
        "away_failed_to_score": 1,
        "away_played": 11,
        "away_score_rate": 74.1,
        "home_clean_sheet": 5,
        "home_failed_to_score": 2,
        "home_played": 11,
        "home_score_rate": 93.4,
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        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 70.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
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        "yes_prob": 70.0
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      "correct_score": {
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        "home_expected": 2.72,
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            "away": 1,
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            "away": 1,
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            "away": 2,
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        ],
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      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "IFK Norrkoping or Draw",
            "prob": 81.6
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "IFK Norrkoping or Varbergs BoIS FC",
            "prob": 79.9
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC",
            "prob": 38.5
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        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
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        "home_pct": 61.5,
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        "lean_label": "IFK Norrkoping"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "away_avg_scored": 2.2,
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        "home_avg_scored": 1.7,
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        "pick": "Over 2.5",
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        "edge": 37.1,
        "implied_prob": 44.8,
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        "label": "Home",
        "market": "IFK Norrkoping Win",
        "model_prob": 61.5,
        "odds": 2.23
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Varbergs BoIS FC",
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      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "IFK Norrkoping",
      "largest_move_kind": "1x2_a",
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      "model_vs_closing": [
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          "closing_implied_pct": 42.8,
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          "model_pct": 61.47
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 26.22,
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          "model_pct": 20.08
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 30.99,
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          "closing_implied_pct": 57.29,
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          "closing_implied_pct": 42.71,
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          "model_pct": 22.8
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      "movement": [
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          "closing": 2.23,
          "early": 2.15,
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          "implied_delta_pp": -1.53,
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        {
          "closing": 3.64,
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          "closing": 3.08,
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        {
          "closing": 1.67,
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          "implied_early_pct": 56.19,
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          "closing": 2.24,
          "early": 2.18,
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          "implied_early_pct": 43.81,
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      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
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        "label": "2-1",
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    "homepage_pick": null,
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        "decision": "value_bet",
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          "raw_pct": 37.4,
          "text": "+25%+"
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          "raw_pct": -50.3,
          "text": "-50.3%"
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          "raw_pct": 8.9,
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        "sort_key": 10080.37,
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        "featured": false,
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        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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        "hero_edge_pp": 18.73,
        "hero_label": "IFK Norrkoping",
        "market_prob_pct": 42.8,
        "market_team": "IFK Norrkoping",
        "model_prob_pct": 61.5,
        "model_team": "IFK Norrkoping",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
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        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
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        "steam_subtitle": "",
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        "title": "Betting Signal"
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      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 18.73,
          "fair_prob": 61.53,
          "label": "IFK Norrkoping",
          "market_prob": 42.8,
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          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -6.17,
          "fair_prob": 20.05,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 26.22,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -12.58,
          "fair_prob": 18.41,
          "label": "Varbergs BoIS FC",
          "market_prob": 30.99,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 21.35,
          "fair_prob": 77.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 55.85,
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          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -21.35,
          "fair_prob": 22.8,
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          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 10.75,
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          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 59.25,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -10.75,
          "fair_prob": 30.0,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 40.75,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 18.73,
        "fair_prob_pct": 61.53,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "IFK Norrkoping",
        "market_prob_pct": 42.8,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "IFK Norrkoping"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 18.73,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Favourite",
          "favourite_label": "IFK Norrkoping",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
          "headline": "Clear favourite",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 42.8,
          "model_prob_pct": 61.5,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "high",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Model and market lean the same side on IFK Norrkoping, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
          "tier": "favourite",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "High",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 18.73,
        "hero_label": "IFK Norrkoping",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on IFK Norrkoping.",
          "note": "The fair estimate is materially higher than current market pricing on IFK Norrkoping.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on IFK Norrkoping."
          ],
          "quiet_market": true,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate favors IFK Norrkoping more strongly than current market pricing.",
            "No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 18.73,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 41.5 pp (at 61.5%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 41.5,
          "max_prob_pct": 61.5,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "High",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 18.73,
            "fair_prob_pct": 61.53,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "IFK Norrkoping",
            "market_prob_pct": 42.8,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -6.17,
            "fair_prob_pct": 20.05,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 26.22,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -12.58,
            "fair_prob_pct": 18.41,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Varbergs BoIS FC",
            "market_prob_pct": 30.99,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "The fair estimate is materially higher than current market pricing on IFK Norrkoping.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers IFK Norrkoping (42.8%).",
          "Model and market lean the same side on IFK Norrkoping, but pricing gaps warrant caution."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 44.84,
        "closing_odds": 2.23,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 44.84,
        "entry_odds": 2.23,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "6/13",
        "current_odds": 2.1,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.1,
        "pick_team": "IFK Norrkoping",
        "steam_score": 16,
        "steam_team_name": "IFK Norrkoping",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 18.7,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 2171,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2171.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Varbergs BoIS FC",
      "country_code": "SE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
      "country_name": "Sweden",
      "fixture_id": 1497605,
      "goals_away": 0,
      "goals_home": 1,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Sweden",
      "home_team_id": 378,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/378.webp",
      "home_team_name": "IFK Norrkoping",
      "league_country": "Sweden",
      "league_id": 114,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/114.webp",
      "league_name": "Superettan",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-15 17:05:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Halftime",
      "status_short": "HT",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": "Norrkopings Idrottspark"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2436,
            "best_odd": 3.08,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0305,
            "ev": -0.1397,
            "implied_prob": 0.3099,
            "model_prob": 0.1845,
            "p_final": 0.2793
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2724,
            "best_odd": 3.64,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0167,
            "ev": -0.1065,
            "implied_prob": 0.2622,
            "model_prob": 0.2008,
            "p_final": 0.2455
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.324,
            "best_odd": 2.23,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "p_final": 0.4885
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.62,
          "edge_no": -0.1075,
          "edge_yes": 0.1075,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "ev_yes": 0.134,
          "implied_no": 0.4075,
          "implied_yes": 0.5925,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 2.18,
          "edge_over": 0.2135,
          "edge_under": -0.2135,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "implied_over": 0.5585,
          "implied_under": 0.4415,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 4.07,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
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      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.3742,
      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "execution": {
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        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
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        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.7,
          "draw_prob": 0.2008,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.6147,
          "over_prob": 0.772,
          "total_xg": 4.07,
          "under_prob": 0.228,
          "xg_diff": 1.37
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0605,
          "ev": 0.0893,
          "implied_prob": 0.428,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.6147,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "IFK Norrkoping"
        },
        "btts": {
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          "edge": 0.1075,
          "ev": 0.134,
          "implied_prob": 0.5925,
          "model_prob": 0.7,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.2135,
          "ev": 0.3742,
          "implied_prob": 0.5585,
          "model_prob": 0.772,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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      },
      "match_id": 1497605,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.3742,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
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        "draw": 0.2008,
        "home": 0.6147
      },
      "reason_codes": [
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      "secondary_pick": {
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        "ev": 0.134,
        "implied_prob": 0.5925,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.7,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
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      "secondary_picks": [
        {
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          "ev": 0.134,
          "implied_prob": 0.5925,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.7,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Varbergs BoIS FC",
        "home": "IFK Norrkoping"
      },
      "top_pick": {
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        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3742,
        "implied_prob": 0.5585,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.772,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
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  },
  "fixture_id": 1497605,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-15T18:22:39.139360+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}