Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (8 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Fauske Sprint Fauske Sprint ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-3 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.08
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Fauske Sprint win · Fauske Sprint 5–3 Strømsgodset II
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "ae4e84493b72ddf26e12c278da6e0c99a19a00347840aa1116dbee6e3e284954",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Str\u00f8msgodset II and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Str\u00f8msgodset II"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Fauske Sprint",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0524,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4134,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.15
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.15,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Fauske Sprint Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.42,
"market_odds": 2.15,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": -10.4,
"value_pct": -22.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 18,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 18,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Fauske Sprint or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Fauske Sprint or Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Fauske Sprint or Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Fauske Sprint"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 20.8,
"implied_prob": 24.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 4.08
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 36.88,
"draw": 21.78,
"home": 41.34
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-14 14:59:09",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-14 14:29:10",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Fauske Sprint",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.34,
"gap_pp": -5.24,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.78,
"gap_pp": 7.88,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.88,
"gap_pp": -2.64,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.15,
"early": 2.15,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.34,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.34,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.08,
"early": 4.08,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.78,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.41,
"early": 2.41,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.88,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.88,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"kind": "1x2_d"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 4.8,
"ev": 0.625,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 13.0,
"market_prob": 0.0769,
"market_prob_pct": 7.7,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.5,
"edge": 0.0254,
"edge_pp": 2.5,
"market_prob": 0.2007,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1297,
"best_odd": 1.13,
"edge": -0.0412,
"ev": -0.1433,
"implied_prob": 0.7993,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7581
},
"p_final": 0.2261,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 31.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.331,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0174,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.5,
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": 0.0174,
"implied_prob": 0.2007,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2261
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4361,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -43.6,
"text": "-43.6%"
},
"ev_under": 1.331,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 133.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 1.331,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 11347.9,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.325,
"edge": 0.0194,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.2122,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.325,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": 0.0018,
"implied_prob": 0.2122,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2316
},
"p_final": 0.2316,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 24.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9679,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0018,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1574,
"best_odd": 1.165,
"edge": -0.0382,
"ev": -0.1267,
"implied_prob": 0.7878,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7496
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 1.0111,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 101.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.3569,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -35.7,
"text": "-35.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 1.0111,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10909.99,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "No tracked consensus line clears the default +EV bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.158,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.8,
"text": "-15.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4134,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0545,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.5,
"text": "-5.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2241,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Fauske Sprint",
"sort_key": 1786.375,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.87,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 41.3,
"market_team": "Fauske Sprint",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Fauske Sprint",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Fauske Sprint)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Fauske Sprint)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.013309999999999999,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013309999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 79,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fauske Sprint at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fauske Sprint as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fauske Sprint",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.3% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.3% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Fauske Sprint).",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "No tracked consensus line clears the default +EV bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.158,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4134,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2241,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.125,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.2,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.87,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.87,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "No tracked consensus line clears the default +EV bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Fauske Sprint)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Fauske Sprint)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.013309999999999999,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013309999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 79,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fauske Sprint at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fauske Sprint as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fauske Sprint",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.3% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.3% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Fauske Sprint).",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "No tracked consensus line clears the default +EV bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.158,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4134,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2241,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "No tracked consensus line clears the default +EV bar.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Fauske Sprint 1.32 xG vs Str\u00f8msgodset II 1.28 \u2192 Fauske Sprint 36.1%",
"Market: Fauske Sprint ~41.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +3.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Fauske Sprint with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.23,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Fauske Sprint",
"market_prob": 41.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.87,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.64,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"market_prob": 36.88,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -31.54,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 79.74,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 31.54,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 20.26,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -24.21,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 78.71,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 24.21,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 21.29,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.78,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 21.8%, a difference of 7.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.87,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Fauske Sprint",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.2,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Fauske Sprint \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Fauske Sprint 1.32 xG vs Str\u00f8msgodset II 1.28 \u2192 Fauske Sprint 36.1%",
"Market: Fauske Sprint ~41.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +3.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Fauske Sprint with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.87,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +3.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"Recent line movement on Draw (\u2191 +3.1%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.87,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.9,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.23,
"edge_pp": -5.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Fauske Sprint",
"market_prob_pct": 41.34,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.87,
"edge_pp": 7.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.78,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.64,
"edge_pp": -2.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"market_prob_pct": 36.88,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Fauske Sprint (41.3%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.1%, 1/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Fauske Sprint \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 24.51,
"closing_odds": 4.08,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 24.51,
"entry_odds": 4.08,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.33,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 4.33 \u2192 3.70 \u2192 4.33) \u2014 net 3.1% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.33",
"4.21",
"4.08"
],
"display": "4.33 \u2192 3.70 \u2192 4.33",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 45m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.33"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.2,
4.08,
4.33
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,9.4 28.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.08"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.33"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.2,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.33,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"current_odds": 4.33,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "strmsgodset-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"away_team_id": 12865,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12865.webp",
"away_team_name": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"away_team_public_id": "22ZWiDcu8UCsLz",
"away_team_slug": "strmsgodset-ii",
"country_code": "NO",
"country_display_name": "Norway",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/no.svg",
"country_id": 120,
"country_name": "Norway",
"fixture_id": 1497234,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": null,
"home_team_display_name": "Fauske Sprint",
"home_team_id": 27277,
"home_team_logo": null,
"home_team_name": "Fauske Sprint",
"home_team_public_id": "4jk383LI2PhfCn",
"home_team_slug": "fauske-sprint",
"ht.home_team_slug": "fauske-sprint",
"league_country": "Norway",
"league_country_display": "Norway",
"league_display_name": "3. Division - B\u1ea3ng 5 Na Uy",
"league_id": 778,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/778.webp",
"league_name": "3. Division - B\u1ea3ng 5 Na Uy",
"league_public_id": "1fYcfB1EQjXj2e",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-14 15:00:00",
"public_id": "44sn2WjwArVgaI",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4322,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.1387,
"implied_prob": 0.3688,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3688,
"draw": 0.2178,
"home": 0.4134
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3574
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1763,
"best_odd": 4.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0545,
"implied_prob": 0.2178,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3688,
"draw": 0.2178,
"home": 0.4134
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2317
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4146,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.158,
"implied_prob": 0.4134,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3688,
"draw": 0.2178,
"home": 0.4134
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3916
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": -0.0725,
"ev": -0.1748,
"implied_prob": 0.4149,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.08,
"edge": 0.0516,
"ev": 0.2104,
"implied_prob": 0.2451,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": -0.1042,
"ev": -0.224,
"implied_prob": 0.4651,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.08,
"alpha_yes": 0.1574,
"best_no_odd": 4.42,
"best_yes_odd": 1.18,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.2421,
"edge_yes": -0.2421,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 1.0111,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0018,
"ev_yes": -0.3569,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1267,
"implied_no": 0.2129,
"implied_yes": 0.7871,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.325,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": 0.0018,
"implied_prob": 0.2122,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2316
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1574,
"best_odd": 1.165,
"edge": -0.0382,
"ev": -0.1267,
"implied_prob": 0.7878,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7496
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.2316,
"p_final_yes": 0.7496,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1297,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.17,
"best_under_odd": 4.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.13,
"consensus_under_odd": 4.5,
"edge_over": -0.3154,
"edge_under": 0.3154,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4361,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1433,
"ev_under": 1.331,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0174,
"implied_over": 0.7974,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7993,
"implied_under": 0.2026,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2007,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1297,
"best_odd": 1.13,
"edge": -0.0412,
"ev": -0.1433,
"implied_prob": 0.7993,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7581
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.5,
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": 0.0174,
"implied_prob": 0.2007,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2261
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7581,
"p_final_under": 0.2261,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.331,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.331,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.331,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Fauske Sprint)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.013309999999999999,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013309999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 79,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fauske Sprint at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fauske Sprint as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fauske Sprint",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.3% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.3% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Fauske Sprint).",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "No tracked consensus line clears the default +EV bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.158,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4134,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2241,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.158,
"implied_prob": 0.4134,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Fauske Sprint"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.325,
"edge": 0.0194,
"market_prob": 0.2122,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.325,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": 0.0018,
"implied_prob": 0.2122,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2316
},
"p_final": 0.2316,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0018,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1574,
"best_odd": 1.165,
"edge": -0.0382,
"ev": -0.1267,
"implied_prob": 0.7878,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7496
}
},
"edge": 0.2421,
"ev": 1.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.2129,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.5,
"edge": 0.0254,
"market_prob": 0.2007,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1297,
"best_odd": 1.13,
"edge": -0.0412,
"ev": -0.1433,
"implied_prob": 0.7993,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7581
},
"p_final": 0.2261,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0174,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.5,
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": 0.0174,
"implied_prob": 0.2007,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2261
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.3154,
"ev": 1.331,
"implied_prob": 0.2026,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1497234,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.331,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.2129,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.2129,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"home": "Fauske Sprint"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.482621,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.331,
"implied_prob": 0.2026,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.158,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4134,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2241,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1497234,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-14T14:59:11.187078+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Fauske Sprint & Strømsgodset II!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
3. Division - Bảng 5 Na Uy — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skedsmo | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 40 |
| 2 | Harstad | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 36 |
| 3 | Alta | 19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 33 |
| 4 | Finnsnes | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 32 |
| 5 | Fløya | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 30 |
| 6 | Lillestrøm II | 18 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 27 |
| 7 | Fauske Sprint | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 8 | Skjetten | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| 9 | Strømsgodset II | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 10 | Kongsvinger II | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 11 | Skjervøy | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 12 | Tromsø II | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 13 | Bossekop | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
| 14 | Ulfstind | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 14 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harstad | 19 | 63 | 30 | +33 | 36 |
| 2 | Lillestrøm II | 18 | 62 | 39 | +23 | 27 |
| 3 | Fauske Sprint | 18 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 25 |
| 4 | Alta | 19 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 33 |
| 5 | Fløya | 18 | 44 | 29 | +15 | 30 |
| 6 | Skedsmo | 18 | 39 | 23 | +16 | 40 |
| 7 | Skjetten | 17 | 39 | 36 | +3 | 24 |
| 8 | Finnsnes | 19 | 36 | 31 | +5 | 32 |
| 9 | Strømsgodset II | 18 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 23 |
| 10 | Kongsvinger II | 18 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 23 |
| 11 | Ulfstind | 19 | 33 | 66 | -33 | 14 |
| 12 | Skjervøy | 17 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 23 |
| 13 | Tromsø II | 18 | 29 | 35 | -6 | 17 |
| 14 | Bossekop | 18 | 29 | 63 | -34 | 15 |
