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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Moss Moss ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.19
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Moss win · Sandnes ULF 1–2 Moss
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "d78b87b73ad0fc2271c7724f5850345377dbd8dffd8e283dfd915ee8ae2dbf3f",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.4,
"away_win_prob": 0.3994,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.5,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.27,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.2,
"home_win_prob": 0.3058,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Sandnes ULF or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Sandnes ULF"
},
"away_xg": 1.4,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Moss",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0842,
"edge_gap": 0.0941,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3155,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 40.0,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 30.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.02
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.02,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Moss Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.17,
"market_odds": 3.02,
"model_odds": 2.5,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": 6.9,
"value_pct": 20.8,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 22,
"away_score_rate": 75.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 22,
"home_score_rate": 69.9,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.4,
"home_expected": 1.2,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sandnes ULF or Draw",
"prob": 60.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sandnes ULF or Moss",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Moss",
"prob": 69.4
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Sandnes ULF or Moss",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.9,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 30.6,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Moss"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 20.8,
"implied_prob": 33.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Moss Win",
"model_prob": 40.0,
"odds": 3.02
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Moss",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 31.55,
"draw": 24.94,
"home": 43.51
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 14:58:04",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 14:33:23",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sandnes ULF",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.51,
"gap_pp": -12.95,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 30.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.94,
"gap_pp": 4.53,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.55,
"gap_pp": 8.42,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 39.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.08,
"gap_pp": -14.88,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.92,
"gap_pp": 14.88,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.19,
"early": 2.19,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.51,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.51,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.82,
"early": 3.82,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.94,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.94,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.02,
"early": 3.02,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.55,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.55,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.51,
"early": 1.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 63.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 63.08,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.58,
"early": 2.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.92,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.92,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
"ev": 0.0,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.2,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1495,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"edge": 0.0169,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.344,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1495,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0365,
"implied_prob": 0.344,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3609
},
"p_final": 0.3609,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2202,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0365,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2055,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0232,
"ev": -0.1141,
"implied_prob": 0.656,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6328
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2796,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 28.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2289,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.9,
"text": "-22.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2796,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10401.64,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.139,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0211,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.3663,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1912,
"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.1262,
"implied_prob": 0.6337,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6047
},
"p_final": 0.3874,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.295,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0315,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.139,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.0315,
"implied_prob": 0.3663,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3874
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2722,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.2,
"text": "-27.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3468,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 34.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3468,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10312.12,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0194,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.9,
"text": "+1.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3155,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0194,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.9,
"text": "+1.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2071,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Moss",
"sort_key": 5215.52,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"alert_team": "Sandnes ULF",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.93,
"hero_label": "Sandnes ULF",
"market_prob_pct": 31.6,
"market_team": "Sandnes ULF",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "Moss",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Moss)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Moss)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Moss at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Moss as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Moss",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Moss).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0194,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3155,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33112582781456956,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2071,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "1/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.1111111111111111,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.1,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.93,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.93,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.4,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.2,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.20 \u00b7 Away xG 1.40 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"steam_team": "Sandnes ULF",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Moss)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Moss)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Moss at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Moss as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Moss",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Moss).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0194,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3155,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33112582781456956,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2071,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sandnes ULF 1.20 xG vs Moss 1.40 \u2192 Moss 39.9%",
"Market: Sandnes ULF ~31.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Sandnes ULF odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Moss with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.93,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Sandnes ULF",
"market_prob": 43.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.54,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.39,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Moss",
"market_prob": 31.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.17,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.37,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.17,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.63,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.4,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 65.7,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.4,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 34.3,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sandnes ULF",
"market_prob_pct": 43.51,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Sandnes ULF"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Sandnes ULF\u0027s win probability at 43.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 30.6%, a difference of 12.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.93,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Moss",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.3,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Moss \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sandnes ULF 1.20 xG vs Moss 1.40 \u2192 Moss 39.9%",
"Market: Sandnes ULF ~31.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Sandnes ULF odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Moss with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.93,
"hero_label": "Sandnes ULF",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Sandnes ULF odds lengthened \u2191 +10.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Sandnes ULF than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Sandnes ULF.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Sandnes ULF than the current fair estimate.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Sandnes ULF."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Sandnes ULF more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Sandnes ULF (\u2191 +10.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.93,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Sandnes ULF",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Sandnes ULF higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.93,
"edge_pp": -12.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sandnes ULF",
"market_prob_pct": 43.51,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.54,
"edge_pp": 4.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.94,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.39,
"edge_pp": 8.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Moss",
"market_prob_pct": 31.55,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Sandnes ULF.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sandnes ULF (31.6%).",
"Sandnes ULF odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.0%, 1/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Moss, Market \u2192 Sandnes ULF, while Sandnes ULF odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.66,
"closing_odds": 2.19,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.66,
"entry_odds": 2.19,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 101h 40m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Sandnes ULF (10.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.20",
"2.10",
"2.00"
],
"display": "2.20 \u2192 2.00 \u2192 2.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 101h 40m",
"pick_team": "Sandnes ULF",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.0,
2.19,
2.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.9 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Sandnes ULF",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Sandnes ULF",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Sandnes ULF",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Sandnes ULF",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "moss",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Moss",
"away_team_id": 7012,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7012.webp",
"away_team_name": "Moss",
"away_team_public_id": "5znPBuFAeSWQU3",
"away_team_slug": "moss",
"country_code": "NO",
"country_display_name": "Norway",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/no.svg",
"country_id": 120,
"country_name": "Norway",
"fixture_id": 1495957,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Norway",
"home_team_display_name": "Sandnes ULF",
"home_team_id": 2146,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2146.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sandnes ULF",
"home_team_public_id": "37IAGX7Ojtvwwc",
"home_team_slug": "sandnes-ulf",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sandnes-ulf",
"league_country": "Norway",
"league_country_display": "Norway",
"league_display_name": "1. Division Na Uy",
"league_id": 104,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/104.webp",
"league_name": "1. Division Na Uy",
"league_public_id": "2DBr6CERz5dKYQ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 15:00:00",
"public_id": "2kMTguwJOAm3Yw",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Sandnes",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2621,
"best_odd": 3.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": 0.0194,
"implied_prob": 0.3155,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3155,
"draw": 0.2494,
"home": 0.4351
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.3376
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2796,
"best_odd": 3.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": 0.0012,
"implied_prob": 0.2494,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3155,
"draw": 0.2494,
"home": 0.4351
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2621
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3626,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.047,
"ev": -0.15,
"implied_prob": 0.4351,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3155,
"draw": 0.2494,
"home": 0.4351
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.3881
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.02,
"edge": 0.0686,
"ev": 0.207,
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"model_prob": 0.3997
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.82,
"edge": 0.033,
"ev": 0.1259,
"implied_prob": 0.2618,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": -0.1511,
"ev": -0.3308,
"implied_prob": 0.4566,
"model_prob": 0.3056
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1495,
"alpha_yes": 0.2055,
"best_no_odd": 2.8,
"best_yes_odd": 1.42,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.114,
"edge_yes": -0.114,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2796,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0365,
"ev_yes": -0.2289,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1141,
"implied_no": 0.343,
"implied_yes": 0.657,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1495,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0365,
"implied_prob": 0.344,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3609
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2055,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0232,
"ev": -0.1141,
"implied_prob": 0.656,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6328
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3609,
"p_final_yes": 0.6328,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1912,
"alpha_under": 0.139,
"best_over_odd": 1.51,
"best_under_odd": 2.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.445,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.5,
"edge_over": -0.1517,
"edge_under": 0.1517,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2722,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1262,
"ev_under": 0.3468,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0315,
"implied_over": 0.6337,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6337,
"implied_under": 0.3663,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3663,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1912,
"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.1262,
"implied_prob": 0.6337,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6047
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.139,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.0315,
"implied_prob": 0.3663,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3874
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6047,
"p_final_under": 0.3874,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Moss)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Moss at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Moss as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Moss",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Moss).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0194,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3155,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33112582781456956,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2071,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": 0.0194,
"implied_prob": 0.3155,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Moss"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1495,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"edge": 0.0169,
"market_prob": 0.344,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1495,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0365,
"implied_prob": 0.344,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3609
},
"p_final": 0.3609,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0365,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2055,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0232,
"ev": -0.1141,
"implied_prob": 0.656,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6328
}
},
"edge": 0.114,
"ev": 0.2796,
"implied_prob": 0.343,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.139,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0211,
"market_prob": 0.3663,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1912,
"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.1262,
"implied_prob": 0.6337,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6047
},
"p_final": 0.3874,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0315,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.139,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.0315,
"implied_prob": 0.3663,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3874
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1517,
"ev": 0.3468,
"implied_prob": 0.3663,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1495957,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3468,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3997,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3056
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3468,
"implied_prob": 0.3663,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3468,
"implied_prob": 0.3663,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Moss",
"home": "Sandnes ULF"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.127777,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2796,
"implied_prob": 0.343,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0194,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3155,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33112582781456956,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2071,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1495957,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T14:58:05.961185+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Sandnes ULF & Moss!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
1. Division Na Uy — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haugesund | 23 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 52 |
| 2 | Kongsvinger | 23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 50 |
| 3 | Stromsgodset | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 48 |
| 4 | Stabaek | 23 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 45 |
| 5 | ODD Ballklubb | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 6 | Bryne | 23 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 35 |
| 7 | Hodd | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 34 |
| 8 | Egersund | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 29 |
| 9 | Ranheim | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 28 |
| 10 | Lyn | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 28 |
| 11 | Moss | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| 12 | Strommen | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| 13 | Sandnes ULF | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 14 | Sogndal | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 23 |
| 15 | Asane | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 20 |
| 16 | Raufoss | 23 | 6 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haugesund | 23 | 72 | 39 | +33 | 52 |
| 2 | Kongsvinger | 23 | 68 | 35 | +33 | 50 |
| 3 | Stromsgodset | 23 | 60 | 31 | +29 | 48 |
| 4 | Stabaek | 23 | 57 | 29 | +28 | 45 |
| 5 | Ranheim | 23 | 56 | 58 | -2 | 28 |
| 6 | ODD Ballklubb | 23 | 47 | 36 | +11 | 36 |
| 7 | Lyn | 23 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 28 |
| 8 | Hodd | 23 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 34 |
| 9 | Moss | 23 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 25 |
| 10 | Sogndal | 23 | 38 | 53 | -15 | 23 |
| 11 | Egersund | 23 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 29 |
| 12 | Strommen | 23 | 35 | 52 | -17 | 25 |
| 13 | Asane | 23 | 34 | 52 | -18 | 20 |
| 14 | Bryne | 23 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 35 |
| 15 | Sandnes ULF | 23 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 24 |
| 16 | Raufoss | 23 | 26 | 61 | -35 | 19 |
