Gnistan vs Lahti Statistics & Analysis

Jun 17, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.92
0 1.90
xG Accuracy: 46%
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay

Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian

Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.

  • Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
  • Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
  • Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
  • 1X2 Gnistan Gnistan ✔ Chính xác
  • Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 1-0 ✖ Không đúng

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1488593

Closing Odds 3.46
AI Fair Odds
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Gnistan win · Gnistan 1–0 Lahti
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Thông tin thị trường

Đọc bổ sung sau lựa chọn chính: feed đóng kèo ưu tiên đã thay đổi so với mô hình thế nào.

Tóm tắt thị trường

Thị trường khá ổn định trước giờ bóng lăn. Không thấy dịch chuyển implied đáng kể giữa PRE30 và PRE1 trên snapshot ưu tiên.

Dù biến động muộn hạn chế, mô hình vẫn định giá Lahti (1X2),Trên 2,5 bàn cao hơn rõ rệt so với implied từ các snapshot đóng kèo — đây là bức tranh tĩnh «mô hình so với giá», không phải câu chuyện đuổi dòng muộn.

Mô hình vẫn cao hơn implied đóng kèo ở Trên 2,5 bàn khoảng 20.4 điểm phần trăm — tín hiệu lệch giá rõ nhất trên trang này.

Mô hình so với xác suất ngầm lúc đóng kèo

Thị trường Mô hình % Ngầm đóng kèo % Chênh (pp)
Gnistan (1X2) 38.7 38.0 +0.8
Vẽ tranh (1X2) 23.3 28.0 -4.7
Lahti (1X2) 38.0 34.1 +3.9
Trên 2,5 bàn 73.4 53.0 +20.4
Dưới 2,5 bàn 26.6 47.0 -20.4
Ý nghĩa đơn giản

Nói dễ hiểu: mô hình khoảng 73.4% cho Trên 2,5 bàn, trong khi snapshot đóng kèo ngầm khoảng 53.0%. Chênh lệch — khoảng 20.4 điểm phần trăm — là khoảng cách mô hình–thị trường lớn nhất được nhấn mạnh trên trang này.

Giải thích nhanh: «ngầm đóng kèo» là xác suất suy ra từ kèo chụp cuối (sau khi bỏ vig đơn giản). «Chênh (pp)» = % mô hình trừ % ngầm đó, tính theo điểm phần trăm (pp).

Biến động kèo trước giờ bóng lăn

Một nhà cái ưu tiên mỗi snapshot (không phải toàn thị trường). Đường dẫn chụp: PRE30 → PRE1 · Nhà cái: Pinnacle

Trong ngoặc trên cột: Closing = snapshot đầu tiên khả dụng theo PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early = snapshot đầu tiên trong PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 khác Closing.

Kèo chi tiết được gấp bên dưới — biến động implied (đã bỏ vig) không đáng kể.

Xem bảng đầy đủ từng dòng
Thị trường Sớm (PRE30) Sát giờ (PRE1) Δ ngầm (pp)
Gnistan (1X2) 2.55 2.55 0.0
Vẽ tranh (1X2) 3.46 3.46 0.0
Lahti (1X2) 2.84 2.84 0.0
Trên 2,5 bàn 1.83 1.83 0.0
Dưới 2,5 bàn 2.06 2.06 0.0

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      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "6/13",
        "alert_breadth_note": "6/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +4.6%",
        "alert_team": "Draw",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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          "outcome": "draw"
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        {
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          "market_prob": 57.41,
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          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -16.19,
          "fair_prob": 26.4,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 42.59,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
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      ],
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        "edge_pp": -4.66,
        "fair_prob_pct": 23.31,
        "hero_side": "draw",
        "hero_team_name": "Draw",
        "market_prob_pct": 27.97,
        "status": "aligned",
        "steam_team_name": "Draw"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "aligned",
          "max_gap_pp": 4.66,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "Aligned",
        "edge_label_key": "aligned",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Gnistan",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 38.0,
          "model_prob_pct": 38.7,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Gnistan, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Lahti remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -4.66,
        "hero_label": "Draw",
        "hero_side": "draw",
        "market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +4.6%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
          "follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (6/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Draw.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "Confirmation remains limited (6/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
            "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Draw."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "Recent line movement on Draw (\u2191 +4.6%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
            "Market confirmation remains limited (6/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 4.66,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.8 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 0.8,
          "max_prob_pct": 38.7,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 0.79,
            "fair_prob_pct": 38.74,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Gnistan",
            "market_prob_pct": 37.95,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -4.66,
            "fair_prob_pct": 23.31,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 27.97,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 3.87,
            "fair_prob_pct": 37.95,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Lahti",
            "market_prob_pct": 34.08,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Aligned",
        "steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Draw.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Gnistan (38.0%).",
          "Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +4.6%, 6/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Gnistan, Market \u2192 Gnistan, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 28.9,
        "closing_odds": 3.46,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 28.9,
        "entry_odds": 3.46,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 6,
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "6/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.4,
        "move_context": "Highest consensus move",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
        "move_pct_abs": 4.6,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 48m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.46 \u2192 3.06 \u2192 3.40) \u2014 net 4.6% but intraday chop is elevated.",
          "Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.46 \u2192 3.06 \u2192 3.40",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 48m",
          "pick_team": "Draw",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.46"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.06"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.40"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.1",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.25,
        "page_alert_line": "",
        "phase_label": "Volatile",
        "phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
        "pick_team": "Draw",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "warn",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
        "signal_key": "volatile_market",
        "signal_label": "Volatile market",
        "steam_score": 30,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "6/13",
        "current_odds": 3.4,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
        "open_odds": 3.25,
        "pick_team": "Draw",
        "steam_score": 30,
        "steam_team_name": "Draw",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 4.7,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 1166,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1166.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Lahti",
      "country_code": "FI",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/fi.svg",
      "country_name": "Finland",
      "fixture_id": 1495707,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Finland",
      "home_team_id": 2082,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2082.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Gnistan",
      "league_country": "Finland",
      "league_id": 244,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/244.webp",
      "league_name": "Veikkausliiga",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-17 18:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Helsinki",
      "venue_name": "Markku.fi Areena"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4236,
            "best_odd": 2.84,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0166,
            "ev": 0.0148,
            "implied_prob": 0.3408,
            "model_prob": 0.3799,
            "p_final": 0.3573
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2789,
            "best_odd": 3.46,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0131,
            "ev": -0.0774,
            "implied_prob": 0.2797,
            "model_prob": 0.2329,
            "p_final": 0.2666
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4448,
            "best_odd": 2.55,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0034,
            "ev": -0.0235,
            "implied_prob": 0.3795,
            "model_prob": 0.3872,
            "p_final": 0.383
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.2,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.63,
          "edge_no": -0.1619,
          "edge_yes": 0.1619,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.4192,
          "ev_yes": 0.1997,
          "implied_no": 0.4259,
          "implied_yes": 0.5741,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.99,
          "best_under_odd": 2.06,
          "edge_over": 0.2135,
          "edge_under": -0.2135,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.4607,
          "ev_under": -0.452,
          "implied_over": 0.5205,
          "implied_under": 0.4795,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.82,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.4607,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.736,
          "draw_prob": 0.2329,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3872,
          "over_prob": 0.734,
          "total_xg": 3.82,
          "under_prob": 0.266,
          "xg_diff": 0.02
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0034,
          "ev": -0.0235,
          "implied_prob": 0.3795,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.3872,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Gnistan"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1619,
          "ev": 0.1997,
          "implied_prob": 0.5741,
          "model_prob": 0.736,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.2135,
          "ev": 0.4607,
          "implied_prob": 0.5205,
          "model_prob": 0.734,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1495707,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.4607,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3799,
        "draw": 0.2329,
        "home": 0.3872
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1997,
        "implied_prob": 0.5741,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.736,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1997,
          "implied_prob": 0.5741,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.736,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Lahti",
        "home": "Gnistan"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.422692,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.4607,
        "implied_prob": 0.5205,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.734,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1495707,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T17:59:06.064385+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Gnistan & Lahti!

Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.

Đăng ký ngay
Quay lại Thống kê
Veikkausliiga VeikkausliigaBảng xếp hạng
# Đội Tr T H B Đ
1 KuPS 22 12 7 3 43
2 Inter Turku 22 11 9 2 42
3 HJK Helsinki 22 11 4 7 37
4 Gnistan 22 10 6 6 36
5 AC Oulu 22 10 4 8 34
6 VPS 22 9 6 7 33
7 Lahti 22 9 5 8 32
8 Turku PS 22 8 7 7 31
9 Ilves 22 7 4 11 25
10 SJK 22 4 7 11 19
11 FF Jaro 22 3 6 13 15
12 Mariehamn 22 3 5 14 14
# Đội Tr BT BB +/- Đ
1 KuPS 22 38 23 +15 43
2 HJK Helsinki 22 36 27 +9 37
3 Gnistan 22 36 29 +7 36
4 Ilves 22 34 37 -3 25
5 Inter Turku 22 29 16 +13 42
6 VPS 22 29 22 +7 33
7 Turku PS 22 28 23 +5 31
8 Lahti 22 26 19 +7 32
9 AC Oulu 22 25 25 0 34
10 SJK 22 25 33 -8 19
11 FF Jaro 22 18 44 -26 15
12 Mariehamn 22 17 43 -26 14
# Đội Tr xG xGC +/- Đ
1 Ilves 22 4.2 1.7 +2.5 25
2 AC Oulu 22 2.7 2.2 +0.5 34
3 HJK Helsinki 22 2.0 1.6 +0.4 37
4 KuPS 22 2.3 2.0 +0.3 43
5 SJK 22 2.5 2.4 +0.1 19
6 Lahti 22 2.4 2.5 -0.1 32
7 VPS 22 2.0 2.3 -0.3 33
8 Mariehamn 22 2.2 2.7 -0.5 14
9 Turku PS 22 0.9 1.6 -0.7 31
10 FF Jaro 22 2.4 4.6 -2.2 15
11 Inter Turku 22 42
12 Gnistan 22 36