AIK W vs Djurgården W Statistics & Analysis

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      "afp_draw_prob": 0.2353,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.477,
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.64,
      "away_win_prob": 0.2877,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.2877,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.278,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.723,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2353,
      "draw_prob_posterior": 0.2353,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.48,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 3.48,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.25,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 4.25,
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      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.1,
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      "home_win_prob": 0.477,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.477,
      "over_25_prob": 0.73,
      "prediction_confidence": "low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.271
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Winner : AIK W",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : AIK W",
      "percent_away": "30%",
      "percent_draw": "35%",
      "percent_home": "35%",
      "winner_name": "AIK W"
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    "away_xg": 1.64,
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      "bet_label": "AIK W",
      "confidence": 47.7,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "Winner : AIK W",
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        "edge_gap": 0.1891,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.449,
        "model_prob": 0.4767,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 28.8,
          "draw": 23.6,
          "home": 47.7
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "AIK W"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.04
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      ],
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      "risk_key": "high_risk",
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        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.23,
        "market_odds": 2.04,
        "model_odds": 2.1,
        "overround": 9.2,
        "prob_edge": -1.4,
        "value_pct": -2.9,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 2,
        "away_failed_to_score": 4,
        "away_played": 8,
        "away_score_rate": 80.6,
        "home_clean_sheet": 1,
        "home_failed_to_score": 1,
        "home_played": 8,
        "home_score_rate": 88.4,
        "no_prob": 27.8,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 72.2,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 72.2
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      "correct_score": {
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        "home_expected": 2.15,
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          {
            "away": 1,
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            "label": "3-1",
            "prob": 6.1
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "AIK W or Draw",
            "prob": 71.2
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "AIK W or Djurg\u00e5rden W",
            "prob": 76.5
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Djurg\u00e5rden W",
            "prob": 52.3
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        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "AIK W or Djurg\u00e5rden W",
        "pick_prob": 76.5
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        "lean_label": "AIK W"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "away_avg_scored": 0.6,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.8,
        "over_prob": 73.0,
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        "label": "Home",
        "market": "AIK W Win",
        "model_prob": 47.6,
        "odds": 2.04
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Djurg\u00e5rden W",
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      "early_capture": "PRE30",
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      "home_team": "AIK W",
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          "closing_implied_pct": 44.9,
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      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
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          "raw_pct": 26.3,
          "text": "+25%+"
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          "raw_pct": -42.3,
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          "raw_pct": -6.0,
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        "alert_breadth": "3/13",
        "alert_breadth_note": "3/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2193 -2.9%",
        "alert_team": "Draw",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 2.8,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": 2.8,
        "hero_label": "AIK W",
        "market_prob_pct": 44.9,
        "market_team": "AIK W",
        "model_prob_pct": 47.7,
        "model_team": "AIK W",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable forecast",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 9,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 2.8,
          "fair_prob": 47.7,
          "label": "AIK W",
          "market_prob": 44.9,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -2.49,
          "fair_prob": 23.53,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 26.02,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -0.31,
          "fair_prob": 28.77,
          "label": "Djurg\u00e5rden W",
          "market_prob": 29.08,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 17.8,
          "fair_prob": 73.0,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 55.2,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -17.7,
          "fair_prob": 27.1,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 44.8,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 14.08,
          "fair_prob": 72.2,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 58.12,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -14.08,
          "fair_prob": 27.8,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 41.88,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "aligned",
        "edge_pp": 2.8,
        "fair_prob_pct": 47.7,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "AIK W",
        "market_prob_pct": 44.9,
        "status": "aligned",
        "steam_team_name": "Draw"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "aligned",
          "max_gap_pp": 2.8,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "Aligned",
        "edge_label_key": "aligned",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
          "favourite_label": "AIK W",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
          "headline": "Slight edge match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 44.9,
          "model_prob_pct": 47.7,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both identify AIK W as the likely winner. Current divergence remains within normal bounds.",
          "tier": "slight_edge",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 2.8,
        "hero_label": "AIK W",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -2.9%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 2.9%. Confirmation remains limited (3/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 2.9%. Confirmation remains limited (3/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "At the same time, Draw has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 2.9%.",
            "Market confirmation remains limited (3/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 2.8,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 18.9 pp (at 47.7%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 18.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 47.7,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 2.8,
            "fair_prob_pct": 47.7,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "AIK W",
            "market_prob_pct": 44.9,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -2.49,
            "fair_prob_pct": 23.53,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 26.02,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -0.31,
            "fair_prob_pct": 28.77,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Djurg\u00e5rden W",
            "market_prob_pct": 29.08,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Aligned",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers AIK W (44.9%).",
          "Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -2.9%, 3/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 AIK W, Market \u2192 AIK W, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 49.02,
        "closing_odds": 2.04,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 49.02,
        "entry_odds": 2.04,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 3,
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "3/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.4,
        "move_context": "Highest consensus move",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
        "move_pct_abs": 2.9,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 57m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.60 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 3.40) \u2014 net 2.9% but intraday chop is elevated.",
          "Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.60 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 3.40",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 57m",
          "pick_team": "Draw",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.60"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.10"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.40"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,3.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,4.5 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "flat",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "Stable"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.5,
        "page_alert_line": "",
        "phase_label": "Volatile",
        "phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
        "pick_team": "Draw",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "warn",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
        "signal_key": "volatile_market",
        "signal_label": "Volatile market",
        "steam_score": 9,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "3/13",
        "current_odds": 3.4,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
        "open_odds": 3.5,
        "pick_team": "Draw",
        "steam_score": 9,
        "steam_team_name": "Draw",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
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        "current_divergence_pp": 2.8,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 11076,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/11076.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Djurg\u00e5rden W",
      "country_code": "SE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
      "country_name": "Sweden",
      "fixture_id": 1495488,
      "goals_away": 0,
      "goals_home": 1,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Sweden",
      "home_team_id": 15629,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/15629.webp",
      "home_team_name": "AIK W",
      "league_country": "Sweden",
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      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/549.webp",
      "league_name": "Damallsvenskan",
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      "match_date": "2026-06-13 11:00:00",
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      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Second Half",
      "status_short": "2H",
      "venue_city": "Solna",
      "venue_name": "Skytteholms IP"
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          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
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          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 6.5
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            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "edge_yes": 0.1408,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "implied_yes": 0.5812,
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          "reliability": "medium"
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        "ou25": {
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          "edge_under": -0.177,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "implied_over": 0.552,
          "implied_under": 0.448,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      "total_xg": 3.79,
      "variance_flag": false
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      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
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          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
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        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
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          "draw_prob": 0.2356,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4767,
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          "total_xg": 3.79,
          "under_prob": 0.271,
          "xg_diff": 0.51
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        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "ev": -0.0596,
          "implied_prob": 0.449,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4767,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "AIK W"
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        "btts": {
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          "implied_prob": 0.5812,
          "model_prob": 0.722,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.178,
          "ev": 0.2629,
          "implied_prob": 0.552,
          "model_prob": 0.73,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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      },
      "match_id": 1495488,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2629,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
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        "draw": 0.2356,
        "home": 0.4767
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      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
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      "secondary_pick": {
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        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
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      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
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          "slot": "secondary"
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      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Djurg\u00e5rden W",
        "home": "AIK W"
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      "top_pick": {
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        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "implied_prob": 0.552,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.73,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  "fixture_id": 1495488,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T12:57:14.308817+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}