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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Kristiansund BK Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 2-1, 2-2, 3-1, 3-2, 1-1 0-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.2
AI Fair Odds
2.13
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Kristiansund BK 0–0 Sarpsborg 08 FF
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 46.9%
- Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "32bc3126d89030dd5de5a9834fb3c9001334aea9a464ee8dddc0b612a316ed2e",
"decision_algo_version": "2.3.1",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.3106,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2201,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.4694,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.85,
"away_win_prob": 0.3106,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3106,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.21,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.79,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2201,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2201,
"fair_odds_away": 3.22,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 3.22,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.54,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 4.54,
"fair_odds_home": 2.13,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.13,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.65,
"home_win_prob": 0.4694,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.4694,
"over_25_prob": 0.826,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.174
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Sarpsborg 08",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Kristiansund BK",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Sarpsborg 08"
},
"away_xg": 1.85,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Kristiansund BK",
"confidence": 46.9,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Kristiansund BK",
"edge": 0.1668,
"edge_gap": 0.1589,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3025,
"model_prob": 0.4693,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.0,
"draw": 22.0,
"home": 46.9
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Kristiansund BK"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.2
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.2,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Kristiansund BK Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.31,
"market_odds": 3.2,
"model_odds": 2.13,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": 15.7,
"value_pct": 50.2,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 12,
"away_score_rate": 84.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 12,
"home_score_rate": 92.9,
"no_prob": 21.0,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 79.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 79.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.85,
"home_expected": 2.65,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-2",
"prob": 5.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 5.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Kristiansund BK or Draw",
"prob": 68.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Kristiansund BK or Sarpsborg 08",
"prob": 78.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sarpsborg 08",
"prob": 53.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Kristiansund BK or Sarpsborg 08",
"pick_prob": 78.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.1,
"draw_pct": 22.0,
"home_pct": 46.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Kristiansund BK"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 4.5,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 82.6,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 82.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 4.5,
"under_prob": 17.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 50.2,
"implied_prob": 31.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Kristiansund BK Win",
"model_prob": 46.9,
"odds": 3.2
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Sarpsborg 08",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 44.2,
"draw": 25.54,
"home": 30.25
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-18 13:50:55",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-18 13:32:09",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Kristiansund BK",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.25,
"gap_pp": 16.68,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 46.93
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.54,
"gap_pp": -3.52,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 22.02
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.2,
"gap_pp": -13.16,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.05
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.43,
"gap_pp": 21.17,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 82.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.57,
"gap_pp": -21.17,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 17.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.2,
"early": 3.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.25,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.25,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.79,
"early": 3.79,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.54,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.54,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.19,
"early": 2.19,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.2,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.2,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.57,
"early": 1.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 61.43,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 61.43,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.5,
"early": 2.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.57,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.57,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 21.2,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.2
}
},
"home_xg": 2.65,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"best_odds": 3.2,
"confidence": "lean",
"display_label": "Home Kristiansund BK",
"edge": 15.7,
"ev": 74.9,
"probability": 46.9
},
"market_cards": [
{
"consensus_odds": 3.2,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0882,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.8,
"text": "+8.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3025,
"max_ev": 0.0882,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.8,
"text": "+8.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4693,
"side_label": "Kristiansund BK",
"sort_key": 10229.38,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 82.6,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 17.4,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 21.0,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 79.0
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 801.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 7.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"alert_team": "Kristiansund BK",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 16.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 16.69,
"hero_label": "Kristiansund BK",
"market_prob_pct": 30.2,
"market_team": "Sarpsborg 08",
"model_prob_pct": 46.9,
"model_team": "Kristiansund BK",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Kristiansund BK, but the model still strongly favours Kristiansund BK."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Kristiansund BK, but the model still strongly favours Kristiansund BK."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0882,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5019,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.3,
"execution_confidence": 44,
"gates_failed": [
"Decision strength below 7"
],
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Kristiansund BK, but the model still strongly favours Kristiansund BK.",
"model_lean": "Kristiansund BK",
"outlier_detected": true,
"primary_allowed": false,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Kristiansund BK, but the model still strongly favours Kristiansund BK.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Decision strength below 7",
"Outlier price +50% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Kristiansund BK, but the model still strongly favours Kristiansund BK.",
"tier": "observe",
"version": "v1"
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"evidence": {
"score": 76,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (17 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 55,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"mv_status": "warning",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Model Value",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Kristiansund BK, but the model still strongly favours Kristiansund BK.",
"alignment": {
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Kristiansund BK, but the model still strongly favours Kristiansund BK."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Kristiansund BK, but the model still strongly favours Kristiansund BK."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0882,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5019,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.3,
"execution_confidence": 44,
"gates_failed": [
"Decision strength below 7"
],
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Kristiansund BK, but the model still strongly favours Kristiansund BK.",
"model_lean": "Kristiansund BK",
"outlier_detected": true,
"primary_allowed": false,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Kristiansund BK, but the model still strongly favours Kristiansund BK.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Decision strength below 7",
"Outlier price +50% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Kristiansund BK, but the model still strongly favours Kristiansund BK.",
"tier": "observe",
"version": "v1"
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Kristiansund BK, but the model still strongly favours Kristiansund BK.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kristiansund BK 2.65 xG vs Sarpsborg 08 1.85 \u2192 Kristiansund BK 46.9%",
"Market: Sarpsborg 08 ~30.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Kristiansund BK odds \u2191 +6.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Kristiansund BK, but sharp money moved toward Kristiansund BK.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 16.69,
"fair_prob": 46.94,
"label": "Kristiansund BK",
"market_prob": 30.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.53,
"fair_prob": 22.01,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.14,
"fair_prob": 31.06,
"label": "Sarpsborg 08",
"market_prob": 44.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 82.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 17.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 79.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 21.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 16.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 46.94,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Kristiansund BK",
"market_prob_pct": 30.25,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Kristiansund BK"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Kristiansund BK\u0027s win probability at 46.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 30.2%, a difference of 16.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 16.69,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Kristiansund BK",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 30.2,
"model_prob_pct": 46.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 55,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Kristiansund BK, but the model still strongly favours Kristiansund BK. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Model Value",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "candidate",
"label": "Candidate +EV"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kristiansund BK 2.65 xG vs Sarpsborg 08 1.85 \u2192 Kristiansund BK 46.9%",
"Market: Sarpsborg 08 ~30.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Kristiansund BK odds \u2191 +6.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Kristiansund BK, but sharp money moved toward Kristiansund BK.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 16.69,
"hero_label": "Kristiansund BK",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Kristiansund BK odds lengthened \u2191 +6.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Kristiansund BK.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Kristiansund BK.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Kristiansund BK.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Kristiansund BK."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Kristiansund BK more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Kristiansund BK (\u2191 +6.9%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 16.69,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 15.9 pp (at 46.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 15.9,
"max_prob_pct": 46.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Kristiansund BK",
"largest_gap_pp": 16.7,
"lead": "The model rates Kristiansund BK considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 16.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 16.69,
"edge_pp": 16.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 46.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Kristiansund BK",
"market_prob_pct": 30.25,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.53,
"edge_pp": -3.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.54,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -13.14,
"edge_pp": -13.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sarpsborg 08",
"market_prob_pct": 44.2,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Kristiansund BK.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sarpsborg 08 (30.2%).",
"Kristiansund BK odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.9%, 6/12) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Kristiansund BK, Market \u2192 Sarpsborg 08, while Kristiansund BK odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 31.25,
"closing_odds": 3.2,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 31.25,
"entry_odds": 3.2,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "6/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 103h 46m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Kristiansund BK (swing 3.21 \u2192 2.70 \u2192 3.10) \u2014 net 6.9% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.20",
"3.05",
"2.90"
],
"display": "3.21 \u2192 2.70 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 103h 46m",
"pick_team": "Kristiansund BK",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.21"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.9,
3.2,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.9,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Kristiansund BK",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"summary": "Market moved toward Kristiansund BK while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Kristiansund BK",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/12",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"pick_team": "Kristiansund BK",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_team_name": "Kristiansund BK",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 16.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Sarpsborg 08",
"away_team_id": 333,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/333.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sarpsborg 08",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Sarpsborg 08 FF",
"away_team_slug": "sarpsborg-08-ff",
"country_code": "NO",
"country_display_name": "Norway",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/no.svg",
"country_id": 120,
"country_name": "Norway",
"fixture_id": 1494702,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Norway",
"home_team_display_name": "Kristiansund BK",
"home_team_id": 320,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/320.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kristiansund BK",
"home_team_slug": "kristiansund-bk",
"league_country": "Norway",
"league_country_display": "Norway",
"league_display_name": "Eliteserien Na Uy",
"league_id": 103,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/103.webp",
"league_name": "Eliteserien Na Uy",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-18 14:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Kristiansund",
"venue_name": "Kristiansund Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3612,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0475,
"ev": -0.136,
"implied_prob": 0.442,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.442,
"draw": 0.2554,
"home": 0.3025
},
"model_prob": 0.3105,
"p_final": 0.3945
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2841,
"best_odd": 3.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.01,
"ev": -0.0699,
"implied_prob": 0.2554,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.442,
"draw": 0.2554,
"home": 0.3025
},
"model_prob": 0.2202,
"p_final": 0.2454
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2249,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0375,
"ev": 0.0882,
"implied_prob": 0.3025,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.442,
"draw": 0.2554,
"home": 0.3025
},
"model_prob": 0.4693,
"p_final": 0.34
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": -0.1462,
"ev": -0.3201,
"implied_prob": 0.4566,
"model_prob": 0.3105
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.79,
"edge": -0.0437,
"ev": -0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.2639,
"model_prob": 0.2202
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.2,
"edge": 0.1568,
"ev": 0.5019,
"implied_prob": 0.3125,
"model_prob": 0.4693
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.5,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.3.1"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0882,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5019,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0882,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.3
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Kristiansund BK, but the model still strongly favours Kristiansund BK."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0882,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5019,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.3,
"execution_confidence": 44,
"gates_failed": [
"Decision strength below 7"
],
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Kristiansund BK, but the model still strongly favours Kristiansund BK.",
"model_lean": "Kristiansund BK",
"outlier_detected": true,
"primary_allowed": false,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Kristiansund BK, but the model still strongly favours Kristiansund BK.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Decision strength below 7",
"Outlier price +50% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Kristiansund BK, but the model still strongly favours Kristiansund BK.",
"tier": "observe",
"version": "v1"
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.79,
"draw_prob": 0.2202,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4693,
"over_prob": 0.826,
"total_xg": 4.5,
"under_prob": 0.174,
"xg_diff": 0.8
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.2,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0375,
"ev": 0.0882,
"implied_prob": 0.3025,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4693,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Kristiansund BK"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.79,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.826,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1494702,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0882,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.5,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3105,
"draw": 0.2202,
"home": 0.4693
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sarpsborg 08",
"home": "Kristiansund BK"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.033114,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0882,
"implied_prob": 0.3025,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4693,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Kristiansund BK",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1494702,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-18T15:16:53.425655+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Kristiansund BK & Sarpsborg 08 FF!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Eliteserien Na Uy — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 50 |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 50 |
| 3 | Tromso | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 38 |
| 4 | Molde | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 36 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 33 |
| 6 | Lillestrom | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 32 |
| 7 | Brann | 21 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 29 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 28 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 25 |
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 25 |
| 11 | Sandefjord | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 23 |
| 12 | Valerenga | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 23 |
| 13 | Ham-Kam | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 23 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 21 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 19 |
| 16 | Start | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 16 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 21 | 54 | 20 | +34 | 50 |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 21 | 53 | 19 | +34 | 50 |
| 3 | Molde | 21 | 44 | 32 | +12 | 36 |
| 4 | Tromso | 21 | 40 | 29 | +11 | 38 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 21 | 39 | 30 | +9 | 33 |
| 6 | Brann | 21 | 39 | 32 | +7 | 29 |
| 7 | Valerenga | 21 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 23 |
| 8 | Aalesund | 21 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 21 |
| 9 | Ham-Kam | 21 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 23 |
| 10 | Lillestrom | 21 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 32 |
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 21 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 28 |
| 12 | KFUM Oslo | 21 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 25 |
| 13 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 21 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 25 |
| 14 | Start | 21 | 22 | 44 | -22 | 16 |
| 15 | Sandefjord | 21 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 23 |
| 16 | Kristiansund BK | 21 | 21 | 40 | -19 | 19 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Molde | 21 | 17.3 | 5.4 | +11.9 | 36 |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 21 | 15.3 | 4.9 | +10.4 | 50 |
| 3 | Viking | 21 | 14.1 | 9.9 | +4.2 | 50 |
| 4 | Rosenborg | 21 | 13.0 | 9.7 | +3.3 | 33 |
| 5 | Start | 21 | 10.6 | 8.7 | +1.9 | 16 |
| 6 | Brann | 21 | 8.6 | 7.3 | +1.3 | 29 |
| 7 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 21 | 11.8 | 11.0 | +0.8 | 25 |
| 8 | Tromso | 21 | 7.4 | 7.7 | -0.3 | 38 |
| 9 | Lillestrom | 21 | 10.1 | 11.1 | -1.0 | 32 |
| 10 | Valerenga | 21 | 12.6 | 14.4 | -1.8 | 23 |
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 21 | 9.0 | 12.2 | -3.2 | 28 |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 21 | 7.1 | 11.3 | -4.2 | 23 |
| 13 | Kristiansund BK | 21 | 6.7 | 11.2 | -4.5 | 19 |
| 14 | Ham-Kam | 21 | 6.8 | 12.0 | -5.2 | 23 |
| 15 | Aalesund | 21 | 9.6 | 14.9 | -5.3 | 21 |
| 16 | KFUM Oslo | 21 | 7.6 | 15.7 | -8.1 | 25 |
