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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Union Omaha Union Omaha ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.06
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Union Omaha win · Union Omaha 3–1 Spokane Velocity
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.2925,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.459,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2936,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.42,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.41,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.42,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.43,
"home_win_prob": 0.414,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Union Omaha or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Union Omaha"
},
"away_xg": 1.17,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Union Omaha",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0311,
"edge_gap": 0.1201,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4448,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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"odd": 2.06
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.06,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Union Omaha Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.25,
"market_odds": 2.06,
"model_odds": 2.42,
"overround": 9.1,
"prob_edge": -7.2,
"value_pct": -14.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 5,
"away_failed_to_score": 6,
"away_played": 22,
"away_score_rate": 69.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 25,
"home_score_rate": 76.1,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.17,
"home_expected": 1.43,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.7
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Union Omaha or Draw",
"prob": 70.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Union Omaha or Spokane Velocity",
"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Spokane Velocity",
"prob": 58.6
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Union Omaha or Draw",
"pick_prob": 70.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 29.2,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 41.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Union Omaha"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 0.5,
"implied_prob": 29.2,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.4,
"odds": 3.42
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Spokane Velocity",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 28.72,
"draw": 26.79,
"home": 44.48
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 16:59:40",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 16:30:52",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Union Omaha",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.48,
"gap_pp": -3.11,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.79,
"gap_pp": 2.57,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.36
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.72,
"gap_pp": 0.55,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 29.27
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.09,
"gap_pp": -5.89,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.91,
"gap_pp": 5.89,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
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"early": 2.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.48,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.48,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.42,
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"implied_closing_pct": 26.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
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{
"closing": 3.19,
"early": 3.19,
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},
{
"closing": 1.74,
"early": 1.74,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.09,
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"implied_early_pct": 54.09,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.05,
"early": 2.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.91,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.9,
"ev": -0.07,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.43,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.4607,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5263
},
"p_final": 0.4725,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0308,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0597,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0597,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4725
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.7,
"text": "-15.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.2,
"text": "+6.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0619,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10205.71,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2123,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.008,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4213,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2123,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.008,
"ev": -0.0771,
"implied_prob": 0.4213,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4293
},
"p_final": 0.4293,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0131,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0771,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2335,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0088,
"ev": -0.1081,
"implied_prob": 0.5787,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5699
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0052,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.5,
"text": "+0.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1236,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.4,
"text": "-12.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0052,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 5204.16,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1112,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.1,
"text": "-11.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4448,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0584,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.8,
"text": "-5.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1478,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Union Omaha",
"sort_key": 1785.4,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.08,
"hero_label": "Union Omaha",
"market_prob_pct": 44.5,
"market_team": "Union Omaha",
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"model_team": "Union Omaha",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Union Omaha)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Union Omaha)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Union Omaha at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Union Omaha as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Union Omaha",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Union Omaha).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1112,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4448,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1478,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.08,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.08,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.17,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.43,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.43,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.43 \u00b7 Away xG 1.17 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +6%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Union Omaha",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Union Omaha).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Union Omaha)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Union Omaha)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Union Omaha at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Union Omaha as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Union Omaha",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Union Omaha).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1112,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4448,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1478,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Union Omaha 1.43 xG vs Spokane Velocity 1.17 \u2192 Union Omaha 41.4%",
"Market: Union Omaha ~44.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Union Omaha +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Union Omaha with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.08,
"fair_prob": 41.4,
"label": "Union Omaha",
"market_prob": 44.48,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.57,
"fair_prob": 29.36,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.53,
"fair_prob": 29.25,
"label": "Spokane Velocity",
"market_prob": 28.72,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.74,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.94,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.74,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.06,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.44,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.54,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.44,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.46,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.4,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Union Omaha",
"market_prob_pct": 44.48,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Union Omaha"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.08,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Union Omaha",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.1,
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Union Omaha \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Union Omaha 1.43 xG vs Spokane Velocity 1.17 \u2192 Union Omaha 41.4%",
"Market: Union Omaha ~44.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Union Omaha +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Union Omaha with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.08,
"hero_label": "Union Omaha",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Union Omaha.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Union Omaha."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Union Omaha (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Union Omaha."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.08,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.0 pp (at 41.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.0,
"max_prob_pct": 41.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Union Omaha",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.1,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.1,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.08,
"edge_pp": -3.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.4,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Union Omaha",
"market_prob_pct": 44.48,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.57,
"edge_pp": 2.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.36,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.79,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.53,
"edge_pp": 0.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Spokane Velocity",
"market_prob_pct": 28.72,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Union Omaha.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Union Omaha (44.5%).",
"Union Omaha \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 48.54,
"closing_odds": 2.06,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 48.54,
"entry_odds": 2.06,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.95,
"pick_team": "Union Omaha",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Union Omaha",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "spokane-velocity",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Spokane Velocity",
"away_team_id": 22785,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/22785.webp",
"away_team_name": "Spokane Velocity",
"away_team_public_id": "1UpD4RiUpYPjog",
"away_team_slug": "spokane-velocity",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1493998,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Union Omaha",
"home_team_id": 10283,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10283.webp",
"home_team_name": "Union Omaha",
"home_team_public_id": "0tn3dTwLSqbtzv",
"home_team_slug": "union-omaha",
"ht.home_team_slug": "union-omaha",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "USL League One",
"league_id": 489,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/489.webp",
"league_name": "USL League One",
"league_public_id": "4MBWLKxzdtvygS",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 17:00:00",
"public_id": "28dnnqbEE3mDcm",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Werner Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2975,
"best_odd": 3.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0016,
"ev": -0.0785,
"implied_prob": 0.2872,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2872,
"draw": 0.2679,
"home": 0.4448
},
"model_prob": 0.2927,
"p_final": 0.2889
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2885,
"best_odd": 3.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.2679,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2872,
"draw": 0.2679,
"home": 0.4448
},
"model_prob": 0.2936,
"p_final": 0.2753
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.429,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0134,
"ev": -0.1112,
"implied_prob": 0.4448,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2872,
"draw": 0.2679,
"home": 0.4448
},
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"p_final": 0.4315
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.19,
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.0662,
"implied_prob": 0.3135,
"model_prob": 0.2927
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.42,
"edge": 0.0012,
"ev": 0.0041,
"implied_prob": 0.2924,
"model_prob": 0.2936
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": -0.0717,
"ev": -0.1478,
"implied_prob": 0.4854,
"model_prob": 0.4137
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2123,
"alpha_yes": 0.2335,
"best_no_odd": 2.19,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0344,
"edge_yes": -0.0344,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0052,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0771,
"ev_yes": -0.1236,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1081,
"implied_no": 0.4246,
"implied_yes": 0.5754,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2123,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.008,
"ev": -0.0771,
"implied_prob": 0.4213,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4293
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2335,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0088,
"ev": -0.1081,
"implied_prob": 0.5787,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5699
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4293,
"p_final_yes": 0.5699,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2262,
"alpha_under": 0.2057,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.99,
"edge_over": -0.0574,
"edge_under": 0.0574,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1052,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0597,
"implied_over": 0.5394,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5393,
"implied_under": 0.4606,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4607,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5263
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0597,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4725
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5263,
"p_final_under": 0.4725,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Union Omaha)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Union Omaha at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Union Omaha as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Union Omaha",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Union Omaha).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1112,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4448,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1478,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2936,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4137,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.26
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0134,
"ev": -0.1112,
"implied_prob": 0.4448,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Union Omaha"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2123,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.008,
"market_prob": 0.4213,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2123,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.008,
"ev": -0.0771,
"implied_prob": 0.4213,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4293
},
"p_final": 0.4293,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0771,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2335,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0088,
"ev": -0.1081,
"implied_prob": 0.5787,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5699
}
},
"edge": 0.0344,
"ev": 0.0052,
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"market_prob": 0.4607,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5263
},
"p_final": 0.4725,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0597,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0597,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4725
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0574,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4606,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1493998,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2927,
"draw": 0.2936,
"home": 0.4137
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Spokane Velocity",
"home": "Union Omaha"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4606,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1112,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4448,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1478,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493998,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T16:59:42.027190+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Union Omaha & Spokane Velocity!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
USL League One — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 58 |
| 2 | Charlotte Independence | 28 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 57 |
| 3 | Forward Madison | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 51 |
| 4 | One Knoxville | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 47 |
| 5 | Boise | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 46 |
| 6 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 43 |
| 7 | Spokane Velocity | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 43 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 9 | Sarasota Paradise | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 33 |
| 10 | Corpus Christi | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 33 |
| 11 | Alta | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 32 |
| 12 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 30 |
| 13 | Westchester SC | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 29 |
| 14 | Naples | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 28 |
| 15 | Greenville Triumph | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 23 |
| 16 | NY Cosmos | 26 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 22 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 26 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 20 |
| 18 | Tormenta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 28 | 64 | 40 | +24 | 57 |
| 2 | Forward Madison | 28 | 50 | 27 | +23 | 51 |
| 3 | Union Omaha | 28 | 50 | 30 | +20 | 58 |
| 4 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 26 | 47 | 38 | +9 | 43 |
| 5 | Westchester SC | 27 | 46 | 45 | +1 | 29 |
| 6 | One Knoxville | 27 | 44 | 31 | +13 | 47 |
| 7 | Boise | 27 | 43 | 37 | +6 | 46 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 27 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 38 |
| 9 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 28 | 40 | 50 | -10 | 30 |
| 10 | Spokane Velocity | 25 | 37 | 33 | +4 | 43 |
| 11 | Sarasota Paradise | 27 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 33 |
| 12 | Alta | 28 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 32 |
| 13 | NY Cosmos | 26 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 22 |
| 14 | Corpus Christi | 26 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 33 |
| 15 | Naples | 26 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 28 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph | 26 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 23 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 26 | 25 | 53 | -28 | 20 |
| 18 | Tormenta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
