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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Union Omaha Union Omaha ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.92
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Union Omaha win · Corpus Christi 1–2 Union Omaha
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "c0aeda8f8486d1a41f12b1b0e6217c269969567be5c038b2c752c9be8967aa30",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.38,
"away_win_prob": 0.3897,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.57,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.18,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.22,
"home_win_prob": 0.3148,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Union Omaha",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Union Omaha"
},
"away_xg": 1.38,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Union Omaha",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0882,
"edge_gap": 0.0747,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4779,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 39.0,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 31.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.92
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.92,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Union Omaha Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.09,
"market_odds": 1.92,
"model_odds": 2.57,
"overround": 9.0,
"prob_edge": -13.2,
"value_pct": -25.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 5,
"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 25,
"away_score_rate": 74.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 24,
"home_score_rate": 70.5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.38,
"home_expected": 1.22,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Corpus Christi or Draw",
"prob": 61.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Corpus Christi or Union Omaha",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Union Omaha",
"prob": 68.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Corpus Christi or Union Omaha",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.0,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 31.5,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Union Omaha"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 11.5,
"implied_prob": 28.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Corpus Christi Win",
"model_prob": 31.5,
"odds": 3.54
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Union Omaha",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 47.79,
"draw": 26.29,
"home": 25.92
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 00:29:20",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE10",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 00:20:21",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Corpus Christi",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.92,
"gap_pp": 5.57,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.29,
"gap_pp": 3.25,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.54
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.79,
"gap_pp": -8.82,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.05,
"gap_pp": -4.85,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.95,
"gap_pp": 4.85,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.54,
"early": 3.54,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.92,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.92,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.49,
"early": 3.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.29,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.29,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.92,
"early": 1.92,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.79,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.77,
"early": 1.77,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.05,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.0,
"early": 2.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.95,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.22,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0105,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4676,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2288,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.0989,
"implied_prob": 0.5324,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5209
},
"p_final": 0.4781,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0205,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0582,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.4676,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4781
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1517,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.2,
"text": "-15.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.2,
"text": "+6.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0619,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10205.71,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Corpus Christi, but the model still strongly favours Union Omaha.",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1706,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.1,
"text": "-17.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0282,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.8,
"text": "-2.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2518,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Union Omaha",
"sort_key": 1792.95,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2172,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.005,
"edge_pp": 0.5,
"market_prob": 0.4328,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2172,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.005,
"ev": -0.0849,
"implied_prob": 0.4328,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4379
},
"p_final": 0.4379,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.047,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0849,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2389,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0055,
"ev": -0.1042,
"implied_prob": 0.5672,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5616
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0333,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.3,
"text": "-3.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1187,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.9,
"text": "-11.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0333,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 1791.675,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"alert_team": "Corpus Christi",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.82,
"hero_label": "Union Omaha",
"market_prob_pct": 47.8,
"market_team": "Union Omaha",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Union Omaha",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Corpus Christi, but the model still strongly favours Union Omaha."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Corpus Christi, but the model still strongly favours Union Omaha."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1148,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Union Omaha at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Union Omaha as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Corpus Christi, but the model still strongly favours Union Omaha.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Union Omaha",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Union Omaha \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.15 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +11% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493988 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.15 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Corpus Christi, but the model still strongly favours Union Omaha.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +11% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Corpus Christi, but the model still strongly favours Union Omaha.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1706,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2518,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.375,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 71,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.82,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.82,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.38,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.22,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.22 \u00b7 Away xG 1.38 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"steam_team": "Corpus Christi",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Corpus Christi, but the model still strongly favours Union Omaha.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Corpus Christi, but the model still strongly favours Union Omaha."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Corpus Christi, but the model still strongly favours Union Omaha."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1148,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Union Omaha at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Union Omaha as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Corpus Christi, but the model still strongly favours Union Omaha.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Union Omaha",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Union Omaha \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.15 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +11% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493988 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.15 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Corpus Christi, but the model still strongly favours Union Omaha.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +11% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Corpus Christi, but the model still strongly favours Union Omaha.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1706,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2518,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Corpus Christi, but the model still strongly favours Union Omaha.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Corpus Christi 1.22 xG vs Union Omaha 1.38 \u2192 Union Omaha 39.0%",
"Market: Union Omaha ~47.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Corpus Christi \u2193 -17.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Union Omaha, but sharp money moved toward Corpus Christi.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.56,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Corpus Christi",
"market_prob": 25.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.25,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.82,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Union Omaha",
"market_prob": 47.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.27,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.47,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.27,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.53,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.03,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.03,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Union Omaha",
"market_prob_pct": 47.79,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Corpus Christi"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Union Omaha\u0027s win probability at 47.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 8.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.82,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Union Omaha",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.8,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 71,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Corpus Christi, but the model still strongly favours Union Omaha. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Corpus Christi 1.22 xG vs Union Omaha 1.38 \u2192 Union Omaha 39.0%",
"Market: Union Omaha ~47.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Corpus Christi \u2193 -17.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Union Omaha, but sharp money moved toward Corpus Christi.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.82,
"hero_label": "Union Omaha",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Corpus Christi odds shortened \u2193 -17.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Corpus Christi, with odds shortening by 17.1%. Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Union Omaha. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Corpus Christi \u2014 odds shortened by 17.1%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Union Omaha. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Corpus Christi, with odds shortening by 17.1%. Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Buying interest on Corpus Christi \u2014 odds shortened by 17.1%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Union Omaha above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Corpus Christi has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 17.1%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.82,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Union Omaha",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Union Omaha higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.56,
"edge_pp": 5.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Corpus Christi",
"market_prob_pct": 25.92,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.25,
"edge_pp": 3.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.29,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.82,
"edge_pp": -8.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Union Omaha",
"market_prob_pct": 47.79,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Corpus Christi \u2014 odds shortened by 17.1%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Union Omaha (47.8%).",
"However, Corpus Christi has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -17.1%, 3/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Union Omaha, Market \u2192 Union Omaha, Recent sharp money \u2192 Corpus Christi.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.08,
"closing_odds": 1.92,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.08,
"entry_odds": 1.92,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 7h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Corpus Christi (17.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.10",
"3.75",
"3.40"
],
"display": "4.10 \u2192 3.13 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 7h 59m",
"pick_team": "Corpus Christi",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.13"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.1,
3.54,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,14.4 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.1,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Corpus Christi",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"open_odds": 4.1,
"summary": "Market moved toward Corpus Christi while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Corpus Christi",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"open_odds": 4.1,
"pick_team": "Corpus Christi",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_team_name": "Corpus Christi",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "union-omaha",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Union Omaha",
"away_team_id": 10283,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10283.webp",
"away_team_name": "Union Omaha",
"away_team_public_id": "0tn3dTwLSqbtzv",
"away_team_slug": "union-omaha",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1493988,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Corpus Christi",
"home_team_id": 4043,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4043.webp",
"home_team_name": "Corpus Christi",
"home_team_public_id": "13migzrCefeVVW",
"home_team_slug": "corpus-christi",
"ht.home_team_slug": "corpus-christi",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "USL League One",
"league_id": 489,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/489.webp",
"league_name": "USL League One",
"league_public_id": "4MBWLKxzdtvygS",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 00:30:00",
"public_id": "0sMWcvtI6NDuzX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Cabaniss Athletic Complex"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5206,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0459,
"ev": -0.1706,
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4779,
"draw": 0.2629,
"home": 0.2592
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.432
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2854,
"best_odd": 3.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": -0.0501,
"implied_prob": 0.2629,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4779,
"draw": 0.2629,
"home": 0.2592
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2722
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2749,
"best_odd": 3.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0282,
"implied_prob": 0.2592,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4779,
"draw": 0.2629,
"home": 0.2592
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.2745
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": -0.1312,
"ev": -0.2518,
"implied_prob": 0.5208,
"model_prob": 0.3897
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.49,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": 0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.2865,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.54,
"edge": 0.0324,
"ev": 0.1148,
"implied_prob": 0.2825,
"model_prob": 0.3149
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2172,
"alpha_yes": 0.2389,
"best_no_odd": 2.12,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0203,
"edge_yes": -0.0203,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0333,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0849,
"ev_yes": -0.1187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1042,
"implied_no": 0.4357,
"implied_yes": 0.5643,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2172,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.005,
"ev": -0.0849,
"implied_prob": 0.4328,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4379
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2389,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0055,
"ev": -0.1042,
"implied_prob": 0.5672,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5616
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4379,
"p_final_yes": 0.5616,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2288,
"alpha_under": 0.208,
"best_over_odd": 1.76,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.73,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.97,
"edge_over": -0.0527,
"edge_under": 0.0527,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1517,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0989,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0582,
"implied_over": 0.5347,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5324,
"implied_under": 0.4653,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4676,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2288,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.0989,
"implied_prob": 0.5324,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5209
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.4676,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4781
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5209,
"p_final_under": 0.4781,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1148,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Corpus Christi, but the model still strongly favours Union Omaha."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1148,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Union Omaha at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Union Omaha as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Corpus Christi, but the model still strongly favours Union Omaha.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Union Omaha",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Union Omaha \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.15 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +11% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493988 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.15 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Corpus Christi, but the model still strongly favours Union Omaha.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +11% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Corpus Christi, but the model still strongly favours Union Omaha.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1706,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2518,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0459,
"ev": -0.1706,
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Union Omaha"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2172,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.005,
"market_prob": 0.4328,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2172,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.005,
"ev": -0.0849,
"implied_prob": 0.4328,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4379
},
"p_final": 0.4379,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0849,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2389,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0055,
"ev": -0.1042,
"implied_prob": 0.5672,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5616
}
},
"edge": 0.0203,
"ev": -0.0333,
"implied_prob": 0.4357,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0105,
"market_prob": 0.4676,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2288,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.0989,
"implied_prob": 0.5324,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5209
},
"p_final": 0.4781,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0582,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.4676,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4781
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0527,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4653,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1493988,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3897,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3149
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Union Omaha",
"home": "Corpus Christi"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4653,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1706,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2518,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493988,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T00:29:22.266856+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Corpus Christi & Union Omaha!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
USL League One — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 58 |
| 2 | Charlotte Independence | 28 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 57 |
| 3 | Forward Madison | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 51 |
| 4 | One Knoxville | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 47 |
| 5 | Boise | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 46 |
| 6 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 43 |
| 7 | Spokane Velocity | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 43 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 9 | Sarasota Paradise | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 33 |
| 10 | Corpus Christi | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 33 |
| 11 | Alta | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 32 |
| 12 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 30 |
| 13 | Westchester SC | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 29 |
| 14 | Naples | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 28 |
| 15 | Greenville Triumph | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 23 |
| 16 | NY Cosmos | 26 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 22 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 26 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 20 |
| 18 | Tormenta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 28 | 64 | 40 | +24 | 57 |
| 2 | Forward Madison | 28 | 50 | 27 | +23 | 51 |
| 3 | Union Omaha | 28 | 50 | 30 | +20 | 58 |
| 4 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 26 | 47 | 38 | +9 | 43 |
| 5 | Westchester SC | 27 | 46 | 45 | +1 | 29 |
| 6 | One Knoxville | 27 | 44 | 31 | +13 | 47 |
| 7 | Boise | 27 | 43 | 37 | +6 | 46 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 27 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 38 |
| 9 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 28 | 40 | 50 | -10 | 30 |
| 10 | Spokane Velocity | 25 | 37 | 33 | +4 | 43 |
| 11 | Sarasota Paradise | 27 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 33 |
| 12 | Alta | 28 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 32 |
| 13 | NY Cosmos | 26 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 22 |
| 14 | Corpus Christi | 26 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 33 |
| 15 | Naples | 26 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 28 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph | 26 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 23 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 26 | 25 | 53 | -28 | 20 |
| 18 | Tormenta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
