Sarasota Paradise vs Union Omaha Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.3897,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.456,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2954,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.57,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 3.18,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.22,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3148,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Union Omaha",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Union Omaha"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.38,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Union Omaha",
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      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.0193,
        "edge_gap": 0.0747,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4089,
        "model_prob": 0.3897,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 39.0,
          "draw": 29.5,
          "home": 31.5
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.24
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.24,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Union Omaha Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.45,
        "market_odds": 2.24,
        "model_odds": 2.57,
        "overround": 9.2,
        "prob_edge": -5.7,
        "value_pct": -12.8,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 3,
        "away_failed_to_score": 2,
        "away_played": 13,
        "away_score_rate": 74.8,
        "home_clean_sheet": 2,
        "home_failed_to_score": 4,
        "home_played": 14,
        "home_score_rate": 70.5,
        "no_prob": 45.6,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 54.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.4
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.38,
        "home_expected": 1.22,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.5
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
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            "prob": 10.2
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            "away": 0,
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            "label": "1-0",
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            "away": 2,
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            "prob": 8.6
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 7.6
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Sarasota Paradise or Draw",
            "prob": 61.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Sarasota Paradise or Union Omaha",
            "prob": 70.5
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Union Omaha",
            "prob": 68.5
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Sarasota Paradise or Union Omaha",
        "pick_prob": 70.5
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 39.0,
        "draw_pct": 29.5,
        "home_pct": 31.5,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Union Omaha"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.7,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
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        "source": "xG_dc",
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        "total_expected": 2.6,
        "under_prob": 51.8
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        "edge": 6.8,
        "implied_prob": 27.6,
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        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 29.5,
        "odds": 3.62
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Union Omaha",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Sarasota Paradise",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 33.8,
          "gap_pp": -2.31,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 31.49
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 25.3,
          "gap_pp": 4.24,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 29.54
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 40.89,
          "gap_pp": -1.93,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 38.97
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 52.37,
          "gap_pp": -4.17,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 48.2
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 47.63,
          "gap_pp": 4.17,
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      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 2.71,
          "early": 2.71,
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          "implied_early_pct": 33.8,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
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          "closing": 3.62,
          "early": 3.62,
          "implied_closing_pct": 25.3,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 25.3,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
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        {
          "closing": 2.24,
          "early": 2.24,
          "implied_closing_pct": 40.89,
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          "implied_early_pct": 40.89,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
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        {
          "closing": 1.81,
          "early": 1.81,
          "implied_closing_pct": 52.37,
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          "implied_early_pct": 52.37,
          "kind": "ou_o"
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        {
          "closing": 1.99,
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.5
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.22,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.1276,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -12.8,
          "text": "-12.8%"
        },
        "ev_under": 0.1292,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 12.9,
          "text": "+12.9%"
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        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        "tier": "best",
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      {
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        "ev_no": 0.1081,
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          "raw_pct": 10.8,
          "text": "+10.8%"
        },
        "ev_yes": -0.0915,
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          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -9.2,
          "text": "-9.2%"
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        "decision": "no_bet",
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          "raw_pct": -4.1,
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        "sort_key": 1789.775,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
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        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.5
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    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "1/12",
        "alert_breadth_note": "1/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +11.1%",
        "alert_team": "Sarasota Paradise",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 4.2,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": 4.24,
        "hero_label": "Draw",
        "market_prob_pct": 40.9,
        "market_team": "Union Omaha",
        "model_prob_pct": 39.0,
        "model_team": "Union Omaha",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable forecast",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 30,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -2.32,
          "fair_prob": 31.48,
          "label": "Sarasota Paradise",
          "market_prob": 33.8,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 4.24,
          "fair_prob": 29.54,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 25.3,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -1.92,
          "fair_prob": 38.97,
          "label": "Union Omaha",
          "market_prob": 40.89,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -4.83,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 53.03,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 4.83,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 46.97,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -2.66,
          "fair_prob": 54.4,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 57.06,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 2.66,
          "fair_prob": 45.6,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 42.94,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "aligned",
        "edge_pp": 4.24,
        "fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
        "hero_side": "draw",
        "hero_team_name": "Draw",
        "market_prob_pct": 25.3,
        "status": "aligned",
        "steam_team_name": "Sarasota Paradise"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "aligned",
          "max_gap_pp": 4.24,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "Aligned",
        "edge_label_key": "aligned",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Union Omaha",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 40.9,
          "model_prob_pct": 39.0,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Union Omaha, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Sarasota Paradise remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 4.24,
        "hero_label": "Draw",
        "hero_side": "draw",
        "market_activity": "Sarasota Paradise odds lengthened \u2191 +11.1%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Sarasota Paradise has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "Drift away from Sarasota Paradise \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "However, Sarasota Paradise has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
            "Drift away from Sarasota Paradise \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "At the same time, Sarasota Paradise has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Market confirmation remains limited (1/12), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 4.24,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
          "max_prob_pct": 39.0,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -2.32,
            "fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Sarasota Paradise",
            "market_prob_pct": 33.8,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 4.24,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 25.3,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -1.92,
            "fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Union Omaha",
            "market_prob_pct": 40.89,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Aligned",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Sarasota Paradise \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Union Omaha (40.9%).",
          "Sarasota Paradise has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +11.1%, 1/12).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Union Omaha, Market \u2192 Union Omaha, Recent sharp money \u2192 Sarasota Paradise.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 27.62,
        "closing_odds": 3.62,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 27.62,
        "entry_odds": 3.62,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 1,
        "books_total": 12,
        "breadth_display": "1/12",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.0,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
        "move_pct_abs": 11.1,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 57m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Bet365 led repricing on Sarasota Paradise (11.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
          "Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.10 \u2192 2.62 \u2192 3.00",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 57m",
          "pick_team": "Sarasota Paradise",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.10"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.62"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.00"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,17.4 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.7,
        "page_alert_line": "",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Sarasota Paradise",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a1",
        "signal_key": "sharp_led",
        "signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
        "steam_score": 30,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "1/12",
        "current_odds": 3.0,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
        "open_odds": 2.7,
        "pick_team": "Sarasota Paradise",
        "steam_score": 30,
        "steam_team_name": "Sarasota Paradise",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 4.2,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 10283,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10283.webp",
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      "country_code": "US",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
      "country_name": "USA",
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      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "USA",
      "home_team_id": 21289,
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      "home_team_name": "Sarasota Paradise",
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      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/489.webp",
      "league_name": "USL League One",
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      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": "Premier Sports Campus"
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          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
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          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "edge_yes": -0.0266,
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          "implied_yes": 0.5706,
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          "reliability": "medium"
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        "ou25": {
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          "edge_over": -0.0483,
          "edge_under": 0.0483,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "implied_under": 0.4697,
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          "reliability": "medium"
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
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      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
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          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
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        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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        "scoring_type": "balanced",
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          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.16
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        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
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          "implied_prob": 0.4089,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.3897,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Union Omaha"
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        "btts": {
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          "model_prob": 0.456,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
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        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0483,
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          "implied_prob": 0.4697,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
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      "match_id": 1493864,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1292,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
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      "probabilities": {
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        "draw": 0.2954,
        "home": 0.3149
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      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
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        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
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      "secondary_picks": [
        {
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          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
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          "slot": "secondary"
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        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  "fixture_id": 1493864,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T23:29:10.008790+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}