Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Sacramento Republic Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.07
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Sacramento Republic 0–0 San Antonio
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "0773cd2cd9b4c241ffdcbe4bfddb7257aed59fbf9080d36373f23d18a32fbc8b",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"away_win_prob": 0.3103,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2951,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.22,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.53,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.39,
"home_win_prob": 0.3946,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Sacramento Republic or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Sacramento Republic"
},
"away_xg": 1.21,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Sacramento Republic",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0651,
"edge_gap": 0.0846,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4601,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.0,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 39.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.07
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.07,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Sacramento Republic Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.17,
"market_odds": 2.07,
"model_odds": 2.53,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": -8.8,
"value_pct": -18.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 8,
"away_failed_to_score": 9,
"away_played": 24,
"away_score_rate": 70.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 23,
"home_score_rate": 75.1,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.21,
"home_expected": 1.39,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sacramento Republic or Draw",
"prob": 69.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sacramento Republic or San Antonio",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or San Antonio",
"prob": 60.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Sacramento Republic or San Antonio",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.0,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Sacramento Republic"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 18.7,
"implied_prob": 26.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "San Antonio Win",
"model_prob": 31.0,
"odds": 3.83
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "San Antonio",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 24.87,
"draw": 29.12,
"home": 46.01
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 22:59:11",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 22:29:16",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sacramento Republic",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.01,
"gap_pp": -6.51,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 39.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.12,
"gap_pp": 0.35,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.47
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.87,
"gap_pp": 6.16,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.73,
"gap_pp": 6.47,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.27,
"gap_pp": -6.47,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.07,
"early": 2.07,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.01,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.01,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.27,
"early": 3.27,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.12,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.12,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.83,
"early": 3.83,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.87,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.87,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.29,
"early": 2.29,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.73,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.73,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.64,
"early": 1.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.27,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.27,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.39,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2014,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0141,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.473,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2215,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.1048,
"implied_prob": 0.527,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5115
},
"p_final": 0.4871,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0589,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0502,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2014,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.473,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4871
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1957,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.6,
"text": "-19.6%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.086,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.6,
"text": "+8.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.086,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10227.4,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2087,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0101,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4337,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2087,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0526,
"implied_prob": 0.4337,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4438
},
"p_final": 0.4438,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0291,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0526,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2296,
"best_odd": 1.635,
"edge": -0.0111,
"ev": -0.0922,
"implied_prob": 0.5663,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5552
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0797,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.0,
"text": "+8.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.5,
"text": "-13.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0797,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10071.73,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward San Antonio, but the model still strongly favours Sacramento Republic.",
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1024,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.2,
"text": "-10.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0167,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.7,
"text": "+1.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1826,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Sacramento Republic",
"sort_key": 5213.36,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"alert_team": "San Antonio",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.55,
"hero_label": "Sacramento Republic",
"market_prob_pct": 46.0,
"market_team": "Sacramento Republic",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Sacramento Republic",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 15,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward San Antonio, but the model still strongly favours Sacramento Republic."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward San Antonio, but the model still strongly favours Sacramento Republic."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1885,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sacramento Republic at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sacramento Republic as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward San Antonio, but the model still strongly favours Sacramento Republic.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sacramento Republic",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Sacramento Republic \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.19 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493702 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.19 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward San Antonio, but the model still strongly favours Sacramento Republic.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward San Antonio, but the model still strongly favours Sacramento Republic.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1024,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48309178743961356,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1826,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.42857142857142855,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.3,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.55,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.55,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.39,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.39 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"steam_team": "San Antonio",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward San Antonio, but the model still strongly favours Sacramento Republic.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward San Antonio, but the model still strongly favours Sacramento Republic."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward San Antonio, but the model still strongly favours Sacramento Republic."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1885,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sacramento Republic at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sacramento Republic as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward San Antonio, but the model still strongly favours Sacramento Republic.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sacramento Republic",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Sacramento Republic \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.19 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493702 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.19 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward San Antonio, but the model still strongly favours Sacramento Republic.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward San Antonio, but the model still strongly favours Sacramento Republic.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1024,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48309178743961356,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1826,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward San Antonio, but the model still strongly favours Sacramento Republic.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sacramento Republic 1.39 xG vs San Antonio 1.21 \u2192 Sacramento Republic 39.5%",
"Market: Sacramento Republic ~46.0% implied",
"Market Steam: San Antonio \u2193 -2.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Sacramento Republic, but sharp money moved toward San Antonio.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.55,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Sacramento Republic",
"market_prob": 46.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.39,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.16,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "San Antonio",
"market_prob": 24.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.06,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.14,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.06,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.86,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.11,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.19,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.11,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.81,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sacramento Republic",
"market_prob_pct": 46.01,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "San Antonio"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Sacramento Republic\u0027s win probability at 46.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 6.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.55,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sacramento Republic",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.5,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward San Antonio, but the model still strongly favours Sacramento Republic. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sacramento Republic 1.39 xG vs San Antonio 1.21 \u2192 Sacramento Republic 39.5%",
"Market: Sacramento Republic ~46.0% implied",
"Market Steam: San Antonio \u2193 -2.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Sacramento Republic, but sharp money moved toward San Antonio.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.55,
"hero_label": "Sacramento Republic",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "San Antonio odds shortened \u2193 -2.6%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on San Antonio, with odds shortening by 2.6%. Confirmation remains limited (3/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Sacramento Republic. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Sacramento Republic. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on San Antonio, with odds shortening by 2.6%. Confirmation remains limited (3/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Sacramento Republic above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, San Antonio has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 2.6%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.55,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Sacramento Republic",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Sacramento Republic higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.55,
"edge_pp": -6.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sacramento Republic",
"market_prob_pct": 46.01,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.39,
"edge_pp": 0.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.12,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.16,
"edge_pp": 6.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "San Antonio",
"market_prob_pct": 24.87,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sacramento Republic (46.0%).",
"San Antonio has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -2.6%, 3/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Sacramento Republic, Market \u2192 Sacramento Republic, Recent sharp money \u2192 San Antonio.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 48.31,
"closing_odds": 2.07,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 48.31,
"entry_odds": 2.07,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "3/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.8,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 135h 57m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on San Antonio (swing 4.27 \u2192 3.80 \u2192 3.80) \u2014 net 2.6% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.90",
"3.85",
"3.80"
],
"display": "4.27 \u2192 3.80 \u2192 3.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 135h 57m",
"pick_team": "San Antonio",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.27"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.9,
3.83,
3.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,12.6 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.9,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "San Antonio",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.8,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"summary": "Market moved toward San Antonio while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "San Antonio",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 15,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/7",
"current_odds": 3.8,
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"pick_team": "San Antonio",
"steam_score": 15,
"steam_team_name": "San Antonio",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "san-antonio",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "San Antonio",
"away_team_id": 4017,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4017.webp",
"away_team_name": "San Antonio",
"away_team_public_id": "4ofSTNVzMjJIPI",
"away_team_slug": "san-antonio",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1493702,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Sacramento Republic",
"home_team_id": 4015,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4015.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sacramento Republic",
"home_team_public_id": "2XMGI4MIFDJnOp",
"home_team_slug": "sacramento-republic",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sacramento-republic",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "USL Championship",
"league_id": 255,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/255.webp",
"league_name": "USL Championship",
"league_public_id": "3mwK4u858hcLji",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 23:00:00",
"public_id": "1kgYnIAu3af7JS",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Heart Health Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2723,
"best_odd": 3.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0168,
"ev": 0.0167,
"implied_prob": 0.2487,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2487,
"draw": 0.2912,
"home": 0.4601
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.2654
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2984,
"best_odd": 3.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.001,
"ev": -0.0442,
"implied_prob": 0.2912,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2487,
"draw": 0.2912,
"home": 0.4601
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2923
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.406,
"best_odd": 2.07,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0265,
"ev": -0.1024,
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2487,
"draw": 0.2912,
"home": 0.4601
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.4336
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.83,
"edge": 0.0492,
"ev": 0.1885,
"implied_prob": 0.2611,
"model_prob": 0.3103
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.27,
"edge": -0.0111,
"ev": -0.0362,
"implied_prob": 0.3058,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.07,
"edge": -0.0882,
"ev": -0.1825,
"implied_prob": 0.4831,
"model_prob": 0.3949
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2215,
"alpha_yes": 0.2014,
"best_no_odd": 1.76,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0711,
"edge_yes": 0.0711,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1957,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1048,
"ev_yes": 0.086,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0502,
"implied_no": 0.5281,
"implied_yes": 0.4719,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2215,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.1048,
"implied_prob": 0.527,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5115
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2014,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.473,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4871
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5115,
"p_final_yes": 0.4871,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2087,
"alpha_under": 0.2296,
"best_over_odd": 2.24,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.135,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.635,
"edge_over": 0.0506,
"edge_under": -0.0506,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0797,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0526,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0922,
"implied_over": 0.4314,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4337,
"implied_under": 0.5686,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5663,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2087,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0526,
"implied_prob": 0.4337,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4438
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2296,
"best_odd": 1.635,
"edge": -0.0111,
"ev": -0.0922,
"implied_prob": 0.5663,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5552
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4438,
"p_final_under": 0.5552,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1885,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.086,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward San Antonio, but the model still strongly favours Sacramento Republic."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1885,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sacramento Republic at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sacramento Republic as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward San Antonio, but the model still strongly favours Sacramento Republic.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sacramento Republic",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Sacramento Republic \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.19 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493702 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.19 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward San Antonio, but the model still strongly favours Sacramento Republic.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward San Antonio, but the model still strongly favours Sacramento Republic.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1024,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48309178743961356,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1826,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0265,
"ev": -0.1024,
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Sacramento Republic"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2014,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0141,
"market_prob": 0.473,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2215,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.1048,
"implied_prob": 0.527,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5115
},
"p_final": 0.4871,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0502,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2014,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.473,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4871
}
},
"edge": 0.0711,
"ev": 0.086,
"implied_prob": 0.4719,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2087,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0101,
"market_prob": 0.4337,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2087,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0526,
"implied_prob": 0.4337,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4438
},
"p_final": 0.4438,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0526,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2296,
"best_odd": 1.635,
"edge": -0.0111,
"ev": -0.0922,
"implied_prob": 0.5663,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5552
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0506,
"ev": 0.0797,
"implied_prob": 0.4314,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1493702,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.086,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3103,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3949
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "San Antonio",
"home": "Sacramento Republic"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.046698,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.086,
"implied_prob": 0.4719,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1024,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48309178743961356,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1826,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493702,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T22:59:12.946417+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Sacramento Republic & San Antonio!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
USL Championship — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 52 |
| 1 | Orange County SC | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 46 |
| 2 | San Antonio | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 25 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 41 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 39 |
| 4 | Colorado Springs | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 38 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| 6 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 37 |
| 6 | Lexington | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | Indy Eleven | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 33 |
| 7 | Oakland Roots | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Rhode Island | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 32 |
| 8 | Sacramento Republic | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Miami FC | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 30 |
| 9 | Phoenix Rising | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Birmingham Legion | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 23 |
| 10 | El Paso Locomotive | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 11 | Loudoun United | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 23 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 18 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 14 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charleston Battery | 26 | 52 | 31 | +21 | 46 |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 26 | 45 | 23 | +22 | 52 |
| 3 | Louisville City | 26 | 43 | 42 | +1 | 37 |
| 4 | Birmingham Legion | 25 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 23 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 24 | 35 | 28 | +7 | 32 |
| 6 | Indy Eleven | 25 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 33 |
| 7 | Miami FC | 26 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 30 |
| 8 | Loudoun United | 25 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 23 |
| 9 | Sporting JAX | 26 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 14 |
| 10 | Detroit City | 25 | 29 | 19 | +10 | 41 |
| 11 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 39 |
| 12 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 38 |
| 13 | Colorado Springs | 15 | 26 | 22 | +4 | 22 |
| 14 | Orange County SC | 16 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 28 |
| 15 | El Paso Locomotive | 15 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 19 |
| 16 | Brooklyn | 25 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 18 |
| 17 | Lexington | 15 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 18 | Oakland Roots | 16 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 21 |
| 19 | Phoenix Rising | 16 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 20 |
| 20 | Las Vegas Lights | 15 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 18 |
| 21 | San Antonio | 16 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 25 |
| 22 | New Mexico United | 14 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 24 |
| 23 | FC Tulsa | 14 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 22 |
| 24 | Sacramento Republic | 14 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 20 |
| 25 | Monterey Bay | 16 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 15 |
