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Treaty United vs Bray Wanderers Statistics & Analysis

Jun 12, 2026 - 18:45
2 1.27
2 1.33
xG Accuracy: 68%
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Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian

Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.

  • Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
  • Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
  • Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
  • 1X2 Bray Wanderers Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
  • Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Không đúng

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 11:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2186319

Closing Odds 1.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Treaty United 2–2 Bray Wanderers
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Thông tin thị trường

Đọc bổ sung sau lựa chọn chính: feed đóng kèo ưu tiên đã thay đổi so với mô hình thế nào.

Tóm tắt thị trường

Thị trường khá ổn định trước giờ bóng lăn. Không thấy dịch chuyển implied đáng kể giữa PRE30 và PRE1 trên snapshot ưu tiên.

Dù biến động muộn hạn chế, mô hình vẫn định giá Treaty United (1X2),Vẽ tranh (1X2),Dưới 2,5 bàn cao hơn rõ rệt so với implied từ các snapshot đóng kèo — đây là bức tranh tĩnh «mô hình so với giá», không phải câu chuyện đuổi dòng muộn.

Mô hình vẫn cao hơn implied đóng kèo ở Treaty United (1X2) khoảng 9.8 điểm phần trăm — tín hiệu lệch giá rõ nhất trên trang này.

Mô hình so với xác suất ngầm lúc đóng kèo

Thị trường Mô hình % Ngầm đóng kèo % Chênh (pp)
Treaty United (1X2) 33.8 24.0 +9.8
Vẽ tranh (1X2) 29.6 25.5 +4.1
Bray Wanderers (1X2) 36.6 50.5 -13.9
Trên 2,5 bàn 48.2 55.2 -7.0
Dưới 2,5 bàn 51.8 44.8 +7.0
Ý nghĩa đơn giản

Nói dễ hiểu: mô hình khoảng 33.8% cho Treaty United (1X2), trong khi snapshot đóng kèo ngầm khoảng 24.0%. Chênh lệch — khoảng 9.8 điểm phần trăm — là khoảng cách mô hình–thị trường lớn nhất được nhấn mạnh trên trang này.

Giải thích nhanh: «ngầm đóng kèo» là xác suất suy ra từ kèo chụp cuối (sau khi bỏ vig đơn giản). «Chênh (pp)» = % mô hình trừ % ngầm đó, tính theo điểm phần trăm (pp).

Biến động kèo trước giờ bóng lăn

Một nhà cái ưu tiên mỗi snapshot (không phải toàn thị trường). Đường dẫn chụp: PRE30 → PRE1 · Nhà cái: Pinnacle

Trong ngoặc trên cột: Closing = snapshot đầu tiên khả dụng theo PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early = snapshot đầu tiên trong PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 khác Closing.

Kèo chi tiết được gấp bên dưới — biến động implied (đã bỏ vig) không đáng kể.

Xem bảng đầy đủ từng dòng
Thị trường Sớm (PRE30) Sát giờ (PRE1) Δ ngầm (pp)
Treaty United (1X2) 3.96 3.96 0.0
Vẽ tranh (1X2) 3.72 3.72 0.0
Bray Wanderers (1X2) 1.88 1.88 0.0
Trên 2,5 bàn 1.73 1.73 0.0
Dưới 2,5 bàn 2.13 2.13 0.0

Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.

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        "alert_breadth": "5/13",
        "alert_breadth_note": "5/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2193 -2.8%",
        "alert_team": "Treaty United",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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        "title": "Betting Signal"
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          "outcome": "home"
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          "outcome": "draw"
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          "outcome": "under"
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        {
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          "market_prob": 57.22,
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          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 2.72,
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          "market_prob": 42.78,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
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      ],
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        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -13.91,
        "fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Bray Wanderers",
        "market_prob_pct": 50.5,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Treaty United"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 13.91,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Bray Wanderers",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 50.5,
          "model_prob_pct": 36.6,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Both lean Bray Wanderers, but the market prices them higher (50.5% vs model 36.6%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -13.91,
        "hero_label": "Bray Wanderers",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Treaty United odds shortened \u2193 -2.8%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Treaty United, with odds shortening by 2.8%. Confirmation remains limited (5/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Bray Wanderers than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about Bray Wanderers than the current fair estimate.",
            "However, recent buying interest has been on Treaty United, with odds shortening by 2.8%. Confirmation remains limited (5/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors Bray Wanderers more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Treaty United has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 2.8%.",
            "Market confirmation remains limited (5/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 13.91,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
          "max_prob_pct": 36.6,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 9.79,
            "fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Treaty United",
            "market_prob_pct": 23.98,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 4.12,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 25.52,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -13.91,
            "fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Bray Wanderers",
            "market_prob_pct": 50.5,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Bray Wanderers (50.5%).",
          "Treaty United has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -2.8%, 5/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Bray Wanderers, Market \u2192 Bray Wanderers, Recent sharp money \u2192 Treaty United.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 53.19,
        "closing_odds": 1.88,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 53.19,
        "entry_odds": 1.88,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 5,
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "5/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.5,
        "move_context": "Highest consensus move",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
        "move_pct_abs": 2.8,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Volatile two-way pricing on Treaty United (swing 3.98 \u2192 3.25 \u2192 3.50) \u2014 net 2.8% but intraday chop is elevated.",
          "Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.98 \u2192 3.25 \u2192 3.50",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
          "pick_team": "Treaty United",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.98"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.25"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.50"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,14.1 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "volatile",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.6,
        "page_alert_line": "",
        "phase_label": "Volatile",
        "phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
        "pick_team": "Treaty United",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "warn",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
        "signal_key": "volatile_market",
        "signal_label": "Volatile market",
        "steam_score": 18,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "5/13",
        "current_odds": 3.5,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
        "open_odds": 3.6,
        "pick_team": "Treaty United",
        "steam_score": 18,
        "steam_team_name": "Treaty United",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 13.9,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 3847,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3847.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Bray Wanderers",
      "country_code": "IE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
      "country_name": "Ireland",
      "fixture_id": 1492912,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Ireland",
      "home_team_id": 16498,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16498.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Treaty United",
      "league_country": "Ireland",
      "league_id": 358,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/358.webp",
      "league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng nh\u1ea5t Ireland",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-12 18:45:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Limerick",
      "venue_name": "Markets Field"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4749,
            "best_odd": 1.88,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.066,
            "ev": -0.1747,
            "implied_prob": 0.505,
            "model_prob": 0.366,
            "p_final": 0.439
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2814,
            "best_odd": 3.72,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0116,
            "ev": -0.0074,
            "implied_prob": 0.2552,
            "model_prob": 0.2965,
            "p_final": 0.2668
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.256,
            "best_odd": 3.96,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.025,
            "ev": 0.0486,
            "implied_prob": 0.2398,
            "model_prob": 0.3375,
            "p_final": 0.2648
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.22,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.67,
          "edge_no": 0.0272,
          "edge_yes": -0.0272,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.0101,
          "ev_yes": -0.0898,
          "implied_no": 0.4278,
          "implied_yes": 0.5722,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.73,
          "best_under_odd": 2.15,
          "edge_over": -0.0725,
          "edge_under": 0.0725,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.1661,
          "ev_under": 0.1137,
          "implied_over": 0.5545,
          "implied_under": 0.4455,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1137,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.2965,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.06
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0486,
          "implied_prob": 0.2398,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.3375,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "speculative",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Treaty United",
          "slot": "longshot"
        }
      ],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.066,
          "ev": -0.1747,
          "implied_prob": 0.505,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.366,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Bray Wanderers"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0272,
          "ev": 0.0101,
          "implied_prob": 0.4278,
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0725,
          "ev": 0.1137,
          "implied_prob": 0.4455,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1492912,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1137,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.366,
        "draw": 0.2965,
        "home": 0.3375
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "longshot_high_variance"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Bray Wanderers",
        "home": "Treaty United"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.041228,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1137,
        "implied_prob": 0.4455,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1492912,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T18:44:15.229996+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Giải hạng nhất Ireland Giải hạng nhất Ireland — Bảng xếp hạng
# Đội Tr T H B Đ
1 Cork City 32 22 5 5 71
2 Bray Wanderers 32 14 8 10 50
3 UCD 32 14 7 11 49
4 Cobh Ramblers 32 13 6 13 45
5 Longford Town 32 12 8 12 44
6 Athlone Town 32 12 8 12 44
7 Kerry 32 11 9 12 42
8 Wexford 32 11 7 14 40
9 Treaty United 32 8 9 15 33
10 Finn Harps 32 6 7 19 25
# Đội Tr BT BB +/- Đ
1 Cork City 32 69 30 +39 71
2 Bray Wanderers 32 61 44 +17 50
3 UCD 32 56 45 +11 49
4 Longford Town 32 42 41 +1 44
5 Kerry 32 39 39 0 42
6 Cobh Ramblers 32 39 46 -7 45
7 Wexford 32 37 47 -10 40
8 Athlone Town 32 36 36 0 44
9 Treaty United 32 31 47 -16 33
10 Finn Harps 32 29 64 -35 25