Kerry vs Athlone Town Statistics & Analysis

Jun 12, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.36
0 1.24
xG Accuracy: 64%
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay

Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian

Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.

  • Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
  • Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
  • Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
  • 1X2 Kerry Kerry ✔ Chính xác
  • Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 22:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2798465

Closing Odds 3.22
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Kerry win · Kerry 1–0 Athlone Town
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Thông tin thị trường

Đọc bổ sung sau lựa chọn chính: feed đóng kèo ưu tiên đã thay đổi so với mô hình thế nào.

Tóm tắt thị trường

Thị trường khá ổn định trước giờ bóng lăn. Không thấy dịch chuyển implied đáng kể giữa PRE30 và PRE1 trên snapshot ưu tiên.

Dù biến động muộn hạn chế, mô hình vẫn định giá Athlone Town (1X2),Trên 2,5 bàn cao hơn rõ rệt so với implied từ các snapshot đóng kèo — đây là bức tranh tĩnh «mô hình so với giá», không phải câu chuyện đuổi dòng muộn.

Mô hình vẫn cao hơn implied đóng kèo ở Trên 2,5 bàn khoảng 7.1 điểm phần trăm — tín hiệu lệch giá rõ nhất trên trang này.

Mô hình so với xác suất ngầm lúc đóng kèo

Thị trường Mô hình % Ngầm đóng kèo % Chênh (pp)
Kerry (1X2) 38.0 40.3 -2.3
Vẽ tranh (1X2) 29.6 30.1 -0.5
Athlone Town (1X2) 32.4 29.6 +2.8
Trên 2,5 bàn 48.2 41.1 +7.1
Dưới 2,5 bàn 51.8 58.9 -7.1
Ý nghĩa đơn giản

Nói dễ hiểu: mô hình khoảng 48.2% cho Trên 2,5 bàn, trong khi snapshot đóng kèo ngầm khoảng 41.1%. Chênh lệch — khoảng 7.1 điểm phần trăm — là khoảng cách mô hình–thị trường lớn nhất được nhấn mạnh trên trang này.

Giải thích nhanh: «ngầm đóng kèo» là xác suất suy ra từ kèo chụp cuối (sau khi bỏ vig đơn giản). «Chênh (pp)» = % mô hình trừ % ngầm đó, tính theo điểm phần trăm (pp).

Biến động kèo trước giờ bóng lăn

Một nhà cái ưu tiên mỗi snapshot (không phải toàn thị trường). Đường dẫn chụp: PRE30 → PRE1 · Nhà cái: Pinnacle

Trong ngoặc trên cột: Closing = snapshot đầu tiên khả dụng theo PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early = snapshot đầu tiên trong PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 khác Closing.

Kèo chi tiết được gấp bên dưới — biến động implied (đã bỏ vig) không đáng kể.

Xem bảng đầy đủ từng dòng
Thị trường Sớm (PRE30) Sát giờ (PRE1) Δ ngầm (pp)
Kerry (1X2) 2.36 2.36 0.0
Vẽ tranh (1X2) 3.16 3.16 0.0
Athlone Town (1X2) 3.22 3.22 0.0
Trên 2,5 bàn 2.32 2.32 0.0
Dưới 2,5 bàn 1.62 1.62 0.0

Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.

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        "alert_breadth_note": "9/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
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        "market_prob_pct": 29.56,
        "status": "aligned",
        "steam_team_name": "Kerry"
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      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
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        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
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          "max_gap_pp": 2.83,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "Aligned",
        "edge_label_key": "aligned",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Kerry",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 40.3,
          "model_prob_pct": 38.0,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Kerry, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Athlone Town remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 2.83,
        "hero_label": "Athlone Town",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Kerry odds lengthened \u2191 +4.7%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Kerry has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "Drift away from Kerry \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "However, Kerry has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Kerry \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "At the same time, Kerry has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7%, suggesting weakening support."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 2.83,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
          "max_prob_pct": 38.0,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -2.32,
            "fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Kerry",
            "market_prob_pct": 40.33,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -0.53,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 30.12,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 2.83,
            "fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Athlone Town",
            "market_prob_pct": 29.56,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Aligned",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Kerry \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Kerry (40.3%).",
          "Kerry has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +4.7%, 9/13).",
          "The model and market both lean Kerry, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Athlone Town remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 31.06,
        "closing_odds": 3.22,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 31.06,
        "entry_odds": 3.22,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 9,
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "9/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.25,
        "move_context": "Highest consensus move",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
        "move_pct_abs": 4.7,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Bet365 led repricing on Kerry (4.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
          "A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "2.36 \u2192 2.05 \u2192 2.25",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
          "pick_team": "Kerry",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.36"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.05"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.25"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.4",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.15,
        "page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 9/13 sportsbooks on Kerry",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Kerry",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a1",
        "signal_key": "sharp_led",
        "signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
        "steam_score": 42,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "9/13",
        "current_odds": 2.25,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
        "open_odds": 2.15,
        "pick_team": "Kerry",
        "steam_score": 42,
        "steam_team_name": "Kerry",
        "steam_tier": "B"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 2.8,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 3846,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3846.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Athlone Town",
      "country_code": "IE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
      "country_name": "Ireland",
      "fixture_id": 1492911,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Wales",
      "home_team_id": 11328,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/11328.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Kerry",
      "league_country": "Ireland",
      "league_id": 358,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/358.webp",
      "league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng nh\u1ea5t Ireland",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-12 18:45:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Tralee",
      "venue_name": "Mounthawk Park"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2873,
            "best_odd": 3.22,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0081,
            "ev": -0.0222,
            "implied_prob": 0.2956,
            "model_prob": 0.3237,
            "p_final": 0.3037
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2976,
            "best_odd": 3.16,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0016,
            "ev": -0.0532,
            "implied_prob": 0.3012,
            "model_prob": 0.2959,
            "p_final": 0.2996
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4345,
            "best_odd": 2.36,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.01,
            "ev": -0.0718,
            "implied_prob": 0.4033,
            "model_prob": 0.3803,
            "p_final": 0.3933
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.87,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.95,
          "edge_no": -0.0521,
          "edge_yes": 0.0521,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.1473,
          "ev_yes": 0.0608,
          "implied_no": 0.5081,
          "implied_yes": 0.4919,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.32,
          "best_under_odd": 1.67,
          "edge_over": 0.0565,
          "edge_under": -0.0565,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.1182,
          "ev_under": -0.1349,
          "implied_over": 0.4255,
          "implied_under": 0.5745,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1182,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
          "draw_prob": 0.2959,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.12
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.01,
          "ev": -0.0718,
          "implied_prob": 0.4033,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.3803,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Kerry"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0521,
          "ev": 0.0608,
          "implied_prob": 0.4919,
          "model_prob": 0.544,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0565,
          "ev": 0.1182,
          "implied_prob": 0.4255,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1492911,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1182,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3237,
        "draw": 0.2959,
        "home": 0.3803
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0608,
        "implied_prob": 0.4919,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.544,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0608,
          "implied_prob": 0.4919,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.544,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Athlone Town",
        "home": "Kerry"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.039881,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1182,
        "implied_prob": 0.4255,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1492911,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T18:44:13.300946+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Giải hạng nhất Ireland Giải hạng nhất Ireland — Bảng xếp hạng
# Đội Tr T H B Đ
1 Cork City 32 22 5 5 71
2 Bray Wanderers 32 14 8 10 50
3 UCD 32 14 7 11 49
4 Cobh Ramblers 32 13 6 13 45
5 Longford Town 32 12 8 12 44
6 Athlone Town 32 12 8 12 44
7 Kerry 32 11 9 12 42
8 Wexford 32 11 7 14 40
9 Treaty United 32 8 9 15 33
10 Finn Harps 32 6 7 19 25
# Đội Tr BT BB +/- Đ
1 Cork City 32 69 30 +39 71
2 Bray Wanderers 32 61 44 +17 50
3 UCD 32 56 45 +11 49
4 Longford Town 32 42 41 +1 44
5 Kerry 32 39 39 0 42
6 Cobh Ramblers 32 39 46 -7 45
7 Wexford 32 37 47 -10 40
8 Athlone Town 32 36 36 0 44
9 Treaty United 32 31 47 -16 33
10 Finn Harps 32 29 64 -35 25