Kerry vs Athlone Town Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.3239,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.456,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2959,
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      "fair_odds_away": 3.09,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.63,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.36,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3801,
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      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : Kerry or draw and -3.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Kerry"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.24,
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      "bet_label": "Kerry",
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      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.0229,
        "edge_gap": 0.0566,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4033,
        "model_prob": 0.3803,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 32.4,
          "draw": 29.6,
          "home": 38.0
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.36
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.36,
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        "display_market": "Kerry Win",
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        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.48,
        "market_odds": 2.36,
        "model_odds": 2.63,
        "overround": 5.1,
        "prob_edge": -4.4,
        "value_pct": -10.3,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 5,
        "away_failed_to_score": 8,
        "away_played": 18,
        "away_score_rate": 71.1,
        "home_clean_sheet": 3,
        "home_failed_to_score": 5,
        "home_played": 18,
        "home_score_rate": 74.3,
        "no_prob": 45.6,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.4
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.24,
        "home_expected": 1.36,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.5
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 10.1
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          {
            "away": 1,
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
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            "prob": 8.5
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          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
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            "prob": 7.8
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Kerry or Draw",
            "prob": 67.6
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Kerry or Athlone Town",
            "prob": 70.4
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Athlone Town",
            "prob": 62.0
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Kerry or Athlone Town",
        "pick_prob": 70.4
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      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 32.4,
        "draw_pct": 29.6,
        "home_pct": 38.0,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Kerry"
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      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": "-3.5",
        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 0.9,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 0.9,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
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        "total_expected": 2.6,
        "under_prob": 51.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "edge": 4.3,
        "implied_prob": 31.1,
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        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Athlone Town Win",
        "model_prob": 32.4,
        "odds": 3.22
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Athlone Town",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
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      "early_capture": "PRE30",
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      "home_team": "Kerry",
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          "closing_implied_pct": 40.33,
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          "model_pct": 38.03
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 30.12,
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          "model_pct": 29.59
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 29.56,
          "gap_pp": 2.82,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 32.37
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 41.12,
          "gap_pp": 7.08,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 48.2
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 58.88,
          "gap_pp": -7.08,
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      "movement": [
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          "closing": 3.16,
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          "closing": 2.32,
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          "closing": 1.62,
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        "gap_pp": 7.1,
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        "label": "1-1",
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    "home_xg": 1.36,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.1182,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 11.8,
          "text": "+11.8%"
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        "ev_under": -0.1349,
        "ev_under_display": {
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          "raw_pct": -13.5,
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        "id": "ou_2_5",
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          "text": "-14.7%"
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          "raw_pct": 6.1,
          "text": "+6.1%"
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    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "9/13",
        "alert_breadth_note": "9/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +4.7%",
        "alert_team": "Kerry",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 2.8,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 2.83,
        "hero_label": "Athlone Town",
        "market_prob_pct": 40.3,
        "market_team": "Kerry",
        "model_prob_pct": 38.0,
        "model_team": "Kerry",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable forecast",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 42,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -2.32,
          "fair_prob": 38.01,
          "label": "Kerry",
          "market_prob": 40.33,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -0.53,
          "fair_prob": 29.59,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 30.12,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 2.83,
          "fair_prob": 32.39,
          "label": "Athlone Town",
          "market_prob": 29.56,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 5.65,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 42.55,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -5.65,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 57.45,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 5.21,
          "fair_prob": 54.4,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 49.19,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -5.21,
          "fair_prob": 45.6,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 50.81,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "aligned",
        "edge_pp": 2.83,
        "fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Athlone Town",
        "market_prob_pct": 29.56,
        "status": "aligned",
        "steam_team_name": "Kerry"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "aligned",
          "max_gap_pp": 2.83,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "Aligned",
        "edge_label_key": "aligned",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Kerry",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 40.3,
          "model_prob_pct": 38.0,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Kerry, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Athlone Town remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 2.83,
        "hero_label": "Athlone Town",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Kerry odds lengthened \u2191 +4.7%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Kerry has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "Drift away from Kerry \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "However, Kerry has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Kerry \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "At the same time, Kerry has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7%, suggesting weakening support."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 2.83,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
          "max_prob_pct": 38.0,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -2.32,
            "fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Kerry",
            "market_prob_pct": 40.33,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -0.53,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 30.12,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 2.83,
            "fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Athlone Town",
            "market_prob_pct": 29.56,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Aligned",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Kerry \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Kerry (40.3%).",
          "Kerry has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +4.7%, 9/13).",
          "The model and market both lean Kerry, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Athlone Town remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 31.06,
        "closing_odds": 3.22,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 31.06,
        "entry_odds": 3.22,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 9,
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "9/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.25,
        "move_context": "Highest consensus move",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
        "move_pct_abs": 4.7,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Bet365 led repricing on Kerry (4.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
          "A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "2.36 \u2192 2.05 \u2192 2.25",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
          "pick_team": "Kerry",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.36"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.05"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.25"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.4",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.15,
        "page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 9/13 sportsbooks on Kerry",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Kerry",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a1",
        "signal_key": "sharp_led",
        "signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
        "steam_score": 42,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "9/13",
        "current_odds": 2.25,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
        "open_odds": 2.15,
        "pick_team": "Kerry",
        "steam_score": 42,
        "steam_team_name": "Kerry",
        "steam_tier": "B"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 2.8,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
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          "Historical model vs market results"
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      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 3846,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3846.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Athlone Town",
      "country_code": "IE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
      "country_name": "Ireland",
      "fixture_id": 1492911,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Wales",
      "home_team_id": 11328,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/11328.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Kerry",
      "league_country": "Ireland",
      "league_id": 358,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/358.webp",
      "league_name": "First Division",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-12 18:45:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Tralee",
      "venue_name": "Mounthawk Park"
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      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
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            "best_odd": 3.22,
            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "implied_prob": 0.2956,
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          "draw": {
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            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": -0.0532,
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          "home": {
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            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": -0.01,
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        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.95,
          "edge_no": -0.0521,
          "edge_yes": 0.0521,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.1473,
          "ev_yes": 0.0608,
          "implied_no": 0.5081,
          "implied_yes": 0.4919,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 1.67,
          "edge_over": 0.0565,
          "edge_under": -0.0565,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.1182,
          "ev_under": -0.1349,
          "implied_over": 0.4255,
          "implied_under": 0.5745,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
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    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1182,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
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          "draw_prob": 0.2959,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.12
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.01,
          "ev": -0.0718,
          "implied_prob": 0.4033,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.3803,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Kerry"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0521,
          "ev": 0.0608,
          "implied_prob": 0.4919,
          "model_prob": 0.544,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0565,
          "ev": 0.1182,
          "implied_prob": 0.4255,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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      },
      "match_id": 1492911,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1182,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3237,
        "draw": 0.2959,
        "home": 0.3803
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
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      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0608,
        "implied_prob": 0.4919,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.544,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
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      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0608,
          "implied_prob": 0.4919,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.544,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
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      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Athlone Town",
        "home": "Kerry"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.039881,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1182,
        "implied_prob": 0.4255,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  },
  "fixture_id": 1492911,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T18:44:13.300946+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}