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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Derry City Derry City ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.39
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Derry City win · Shelbourne 0–1 Derry City
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"afp_away_win_prob": 0.3895,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.299,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.3115,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"away_win_prob": 0.3895,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3895,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.502,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.498,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.299,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.57,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.57,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.34,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.34,
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"fair_odds_home_posterior": 3.21,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.05,
"home_win_prob": 0.3115,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.3115,
"over_25_prob": 0.43,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.57
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Derry City",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Derry City"
},
"away_xg": 1.35,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Derry City",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0734,
"edge_gap": 0.0776,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3157,
"model_prob": 0.3891,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 38.9,
"draw": 29.9,
"home": 31.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.05
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.05,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Derry City Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.17,
"market_odds": 3.05,
"model_odds": 2.57,
"overround": 3.9,
"prob_edge": 6.1,
"value_pct": 18.7,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 29,
"away_score_rate": 74.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 28,
"home_score_rate": 65.0,
"no_prob": 50.2,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 50.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 49.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.35,
"home_expected": 1.05,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Shelbourne or Draw",
"prob": 61.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Shelbourne or Derry City",
"prob": 70.1
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Derry City",
"prob": 68.9
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Shelbourne or Derry City",
"pick_prob": 70.1
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.0,
"draw_pct": 29.9,
"home_pct": 31.1,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Derry City"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.4,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 43.0,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 57.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.4,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"edge": 18.9,
"implied_prob": 32.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Derry City Win",
"model_prob": 39.0,
"odds": 3.05
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Derry City",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 31.57,
"draw": 28.15,
"home": 40.28
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 18:44:16",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 18:14:25",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Shelbourne",
"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
"max_abs_move_pp": 2.84,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.28,
"gap_pp": -9.13,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.15
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.15,
"gap_pp": 1.79,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.94
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.57,
"gap_pp": 7.34,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.91
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.35,
"gap_pp": -6.35,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 43.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.65,
"gap_pp": 6.35,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 57.0
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.39,
"early": 2.35,
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"implied_delta_pp": -0.72,
"implied_early_pct": 41.0,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.42,
"early": 3.6,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.05,
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"implied_delta_pp": -0.66,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.96,
"early": 1.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.35,
"implied_delta_pp": -2.84,
"implied_early_pct": 52.2,
"kind": "ou_o"
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{
"closing": 1.91,
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"implied_early_pct": 47.8,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"best_odds": 11.0,
"edge": 3.2,
"ev": 34.7,
"label": "0-1",
"probability": 12.2
},
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.5,
"ev": -0.1615,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.129,
"model_prob_pct": 12.9,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.9
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.05,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"best_odds": 3.0,
"confidence": "no_clear_edge",
"display_label": "Away Derry City",
"edge": 5.6,
"ev": 26.1,
"probability": 38.9
},
"market_cards": [
{
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"alpha": 0.4956,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0334,
"edge_pp": 3.3,
"market_prob": 0.5027,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.57,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4956,
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"edge": -0.0334,
"ev": -0.1324,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.43,
"p_final": 0.464
},
"p_final": 0.536,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0545,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0083,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4956,
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"edge": 0.0334,
"ev": -0.0083,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.57,
"p_final": 0.536
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.14,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.0,
"text": "-14.0%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1685,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 16.9,
"text": "+16.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1685,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"over_prob": 43.0,
"sort_key": 10301.65,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 57.0,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.508,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0266,
"edge_pp": 2.7,
"market_prob": 0.4497,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.502,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.508,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0266,
"ev": -0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4497,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"p_final": 0.4762
},
"p_final": 0.4762,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0291,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0237,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5588,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": -0.0292,
"ev": -0.1272,
"implied_prob": 0.5503,
"model_prob": 0.498,
"p_final": 0.5211
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0793,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.9,
"text": "+7.9%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1285,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.8,
"text": "-12.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0793,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no_prob": 50.2,
"sort_key": 10071.37,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 49.8
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 3.05,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0226,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.3,
"text": "+2.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3157,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0226,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.3,
"text": "+2.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3891,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1868,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Derry City",
"sort_key": 5218.08,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 818.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"alert_team": "Shelbourne",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.13,
"hero_label": "Shelbourne",
"market_prob_pct": 31.6,
"market_team": "Shelbourne",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Derry City",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 1,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1685,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1867,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 78,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Derry City at 38.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Derry City as the value side (38.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Derry City",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City).",
"Decision strength: 7.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0226,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3157,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3891,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3278688524590164,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1868,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "1/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.07142857142857142,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 0.7,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.13,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.13,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.05,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.05 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"steam_team": "Shelbourne",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1685,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1867,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 78,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Derry City at 38.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Derry City as the value side (38.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Derry City",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City).",
"Decision strength: 7.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0226,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3157,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3891,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3278688524590164,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1868,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Shelbourne 1.05 xG vs Derry City 1.35 \u2192 Derry City 39.0%",
"Market: Shelbourne ~31.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Shelbourne odds \u2191 +2.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Derry City with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.13,
"fair_prob": 31.15,
"label": "Shelbourne",
"market_prob": 40.28,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.75,
"fair_prob": 29.9,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.38,
"fair_prob": 38.95,
"label": "Derry City",
"market_prob": 31.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.13,
"fair_prob": 43.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 50.13,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.13,
"fair_prob": 57.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 49.87,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.26,
"fair_prob": 49.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.06,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.26,
"fair_prob": 50.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.94,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.15,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Shelbourne",
"market_prob_pct": 40.28,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Shelbourne"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Shelbourne\u0027s win probability at 40.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.1%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.13,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Derry City",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.4,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Derry City \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Shelbourne 1.05 xG vs Derry City 1.35 \u2192 Derry City 39.0%",
"Market: Shelbourne ~31.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Shelbourne odds \u2191 +2.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Derry City with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.13,
"hero_label": "Shelbourne",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Shelbourne odds lengthened \u2191 +2.2%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/14 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Shelbourne. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Shelbourne. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/14 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Shelbourne above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Shelbourne (\u2191 +2.2%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/14), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.13,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.8 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.8,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Shelbourne",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Shelbourne higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.13,
"edge_pp": -9.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.15,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Shelbourne",
"market_prob_pct": 40.28,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.75,
"edge_pp": 1.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.9,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.15,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.38,
"edge_pp": 7.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.95,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Derry City",
"market_prob_pct": 31.57,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Shelbourne (31.6%).",
"Shelbourne odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.2%, 1/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Derry City, Market \u2192 Shelbourne, while Shelbourne odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 41.84,
"closing_odds": 2.39,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 41.84,
"entry_odds": 2.39,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "1/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest closing-window shift",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Shelbourne (swing 2.43 \u2192 2.21 \u2192 2.30) \u2014 net 2.2% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.39",
"2.32",
"2.25"
],
"display": "2.43 \u2192 2.21 \u2192 2.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "Shelbourne",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.43"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.21"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.25,
2.39,
2.35,
2.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,5.1 56.0,11.6",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.39"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.25,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Shelbourne",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Shelbourne",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 1,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/14",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"pick_team": "Shelbourne",
"steam_score": 1,
"steam_team_name": "Shelbourne",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "derry-city",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Derry City",
"away_team_id": 670,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/670.webp",
"away_team_name": "Derry City",
"away_team_public_id": "37GUkXcWaV0tGq",
"away_team_slug": "derry-city",
"country_code": "IE",
"country_display_name": "Ireland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
"country_id": 77,
"country_name": "Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1492768,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Ireland",
"home_team_display_name": "Shelbourne",
"home_team_id": 3854,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3854.webp",
"home_team_name": "Shelbourne",
"home_team_public_id": "5yzfTfk8IcXsCy",
"home_team_slug": "shelbourne",
"ht.home_team_slug": "shelbourne",
"league_country": "Ireland",
"league_country_display": "Ireland",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Ireland",
"league_id": 357,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/357.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Ireland",
"league_public_id": "1IkShdACEGEHBz",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 18:45:00",
"public_id": "2efs3VIAMWN82m",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Dublin",
"venue_name": "Tolka Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.267,
"best_odd": 3.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0196,
"ev": 0.0226,
"implied_prob": 0.3157,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3157,
"draw": 0.2815,
"home": 0.4028
},
"model_prob": 0.3891,
"p_final": 0.3353
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.292,
"best_odd": 3.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0052,
"ev": -0.0194,
"implied_prob": 0.2815,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3157,
"draw": 0.2815,
"home": 0.4028
},
"model_prob": 0.2994,
"p_final": 0.2867
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3884,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0355,
"ev": -0.122,
"implied_prob": 0.4028,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3157,
"draw": 0.2815,
"home": 0.4028
},
"model_prob": 0.3115,
"p_final": 0.3674
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.05,
"edge": 0.0612,
"ev": 0.1867,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"model_prob": 0.3891
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.42,
"edge": 0.007,
"ev": 0.0239,
"implied_prob": 0.2924,
"model_prob": 0.2994
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": -0.1069,
"ev": -0.2555,
"implied_prob": 0.4184,
"model_prob": 0.3115
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.508,
"alpha_yes": 0.5588,
"best_no_odd": 2.15,
"best_yes_odd": 1.75,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0526,
"edge_yes": -0.0526,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0793,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0237,
"ev_yes": -0.1285,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1272,
"implied_no": 0.4494,
"implied_yes": 0.5506,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.508,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0266,
"ev": -0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4497,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"p_final": 0.4762
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5588,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": -0.0292,
"ev": -0.1272,
"implied_prob": 0.5503,
"model_prob": 0.498,
"p_final": 0.5211
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.4762,
"p_final_yes": 0.5211,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4956,
"alpha_under": 0.4956,
"best_over_odd": 2.0,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.87,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.85,
"edge_over": -0.0713,
"edge_under": 0.0713,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.14,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1324,
"ev_under": 0.1685,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0083,
"implied_over": 0.5013,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4973,
"implied_under": 0.4987,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5027,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4956,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": -0.0334,
"ev": -0.1324,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.43,
"p_final": 0.464
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4956,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0334,
"ev": -0.0083,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.57,
"p_final": 0.536
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.464,
"p_final_under": 0.536,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.4,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1685,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1867,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1685,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.5
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1685,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1867,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 78,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Derry City at 38.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Derry City as the value side (38.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Derry City",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City).",
"Decision strength: 7.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0226,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3157,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3891,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3278688524590164,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1868,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.498,
"draw_prob": 0.2994,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3891,
"over_prob": 0.43,
"total_xg": 2.4,
"under_prob": 0.57,
"xg_diff": 0.3
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.05,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0196,
"ev": 0.0226,
"implied_prob": 0.3157,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3891,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Derry City"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.508,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0266,
"market_prob": 0.4497,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.502,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.508,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0266,
"ev": -0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4497,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"p_final": 0.4762
},
"p_final": 0.4762,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0237,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5588,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": -0.0292,
"ev": -0.1272,
"implied_prob": 0.5503,
"model_prob": 0.498,
"p_final": 0.5211
}
},
"edge": 0.0526,
"ev": 0.0793,
"implied_prob": 0.4494,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4956,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0334,
"market_prob": 0.5027,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.57,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4956,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": -0.0334,
"ev": -0.1324,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.43,
"p_final": 0.464
},
"p_final": 0.536,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0083,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4956,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0334,
"ev": -0.0083,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.57,
"p_final": 0.536
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0713,
"ev": 0.1685,
"implied_prob": 0.4987,
"model_prob": 0.57,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1492768,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1685,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3891,
"draw": 0.2994,
"home": 0.3115
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Derry City",
"home": "Shelbourne"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.059164,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1685,
"implied_prob": 0.4987,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.57,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0226,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3157,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3891,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3278688524590164,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1868,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492768,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T19:28:10.600187+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Giải Ngoại hạng Ireland — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 59 |
| 2 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 41 |
| 5 | Dundalk | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 |
| 6 | Shelbourne | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 40 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 38 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 23 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bohemians | 31 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 56 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 59 |
| 3 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 59 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 32 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 41 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 45 | 42 | +3 | 41 |
| 6 | Waterford | 32 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 34 |
| 7 | Shelbourne | 32 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 40 |
| 8 | Galway United | 32 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 38 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waterford | 32 | 13.0 | 7.8 | +5.2 | 34 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 12.6 | 8.9 | +3.7 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 11.5 | 8.2 | +3.3 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 10.8 | 7.8 | +3.0 | 41 |
| 5 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 9.7 | 8.2 | +1.5 | 59 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 32 | 13.0 | 12.1 | +0.9 | 41 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 10.9 | 13.0 | -2.1 | 38 |
| 8 | Shelbourne | 32 | 6.2 | 9.8 | -3.6 | 40 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 6.4 | 12.3 | -5.9 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 8.0 | 14.1 | -6.1 | 23 |
