Galway United vs Derry City Statistics & Analysis

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      "afp_away_win_prob": 0.1892,
      "afp_draw_prob": 0.2428,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.568,
      "away_predicted_xg": 0.93,
      "away_win_prob": 0.1892,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.1892,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.443,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.557,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2428,
      "draw_prob_posterior": 0.2428,
      "fair_odds_away": 5.29,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 5.29,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.12,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 4.12,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.76,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 1.76,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.33,
      "home_win_prob": 0.568,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.568,
      "over_25_prob": 0.633,
      "prediction_confidence": "high",
      "under_25_prob": 0.368
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Derry City",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Galway United",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Derry City"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.93,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Galway United",
      "confidence": 56.8,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "high",
        "display_text": "Winner : Galway United",
        "edge": 0.27,
        "edge_gap": 0.3255,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.2982,
        "model_prob": 0.5682,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 18.9,
          "draw": 24.3,
          "home": 56.8
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Galway United"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 3.23
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 3.23,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Galway United Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 3.35,
        "market_odds": 3.23,
        "model_odds": 1.76,
        "overround": 3.8,
        "prob_edge": 25.9,
        "value_pct": 83.5,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 5,
        "away_failed_to_score": 7,
        "away_played": 21,
        "away_score_rate": 60.5,
        "home_clean_sheet": 1,
        "home_failed_to_score": 5,
        "home_played": 19,
        "home_score_rate": 90.3,
        "no_prob": 44.3,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 55.7,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 55.7
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 0.93,
        "home_expected": 2.33,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 10.4
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.7
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 8.9
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 8.3
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-0",
            "prob": 8.1
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Galway United or Draw",
            "prob": 81.1
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Galway United or Derry City",
            "prob": 75.7
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Derry City",
            "prob": 43.2
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Galway United or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 81.1
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 18.9,
        "draw_pct": 24.3,
        "home_pct": 56.8,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Galway United"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.26,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.4,
        "over_prob": 63.2,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 63.2,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 3.26,
        "under_prob": 36.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 83.5,
        "implied_prob": 31.0,
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Galway United Win",
        "model_prob": 56.8,
        "odds": 3.23
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Derry City",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Galway United",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 29.82,
          "gap_pp": 27.0,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 56.82
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 29.54,
          "gap_pp": -5.27,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 24.27
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 40.64,
          "gap_pp": -21.73,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 18.9
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 45.88,
          "gap_pp": 17.32,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 63.2
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 54.12,
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          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 36.8
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 3.23,
          "early": 3.23,
          "implied_closing_pct": 29.82,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 29.82,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.26,
          "early": 3.26,
          "implied_closing_pct": 29.54,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 29.54,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.37,
          "early": 2.37,
          "implied_closing_pct": 40.64,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 40.64,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.1,
          "early": 2.1,
          "implied_closing_pct": 45.88,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 45.88,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.78,
          "early": 1.78,
          "implied_closing_pct": 54.12,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 54.12,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 27.0,
        "kind": "1x2_h"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-0",
        "prob": 10.4
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.33,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1188,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 11.9,
          "text": "+11.9%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.2982,
        "max_ev": 0.1188,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 11.9,
          "text": "+11.9%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.5682,
        "side_label": "Galway United",
        "sort_key": 10256.92,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": false,
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        "ev_under": null,
        "ev_under_display": null,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": null,
        "over_prob": 63.2,
        "sort_key": 4050.0,
        "tier": "lean",
        "under_prob": 36.8,
        "value_side": "over"
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      {
        "decision": "lean",
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        "yes_prob": 55.7
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    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "",
        "alert_breadth_note": "",
        "alert_move": "",
        "alert_team": "",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 27.0,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": 26.98,
        "hero_label": "Galway United",
        "market_prob_pct": 29.8,
        "market_team": "Derry City",
        "model_prob_pct": 56.8,
        "model_team": "Galway United",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": null,
        "steam_subtitle": "",
        "steam_tier": "",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 26.98,
          "fair_prob": 56.8,
          "label": "Galway United",
          "market_prob": 29.82,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -5.26,
          "fair_prob": 24.28,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 29.54,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -21.72,
          "fair_prob": 18.92,
          "label": "Derry City",
          "market_prob": 40.64,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 63.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 36.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 55.7,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 44.3,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 26.98,
        "fair_prob_pct": 56.8,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Galway United",
        "market_prob_pct": 29.82,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Galway United"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "extreme",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 26.98,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": true
        },
        "divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "extreme",
        "divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
        "divergence_tier": "extreme",
        "edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
          "favourite_label": "Galway United",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
          "headline": "Slight edge match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 29.8,
          "model_prob_pct": 56.8,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "high",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Galway United, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
          "tier": "slight_edge",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "High",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 26.98,
        "hero_label": "Galway United",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {},
        "market_narrative": {},
        "max_gap_pp": 26.98,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 32.5 pp (at 56.8%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 32.5,
          "max_prob_pct": 56.8,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "High",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 26.98,
            "fair_prob_pct": 56.8,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Galway United",
            "market_prob_pct": 29.82,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -5.26,
            "fair_prob_pct": 24.28,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 29.54,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -21.72,
            "fair_prob_pct": 18.92,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Derry City",
            "market_prob_pct": 40.64,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Derry City (29.8%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Galway United, Market \u2192 Derry City, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 30.96,
        "closing_odds": 3.23,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 30.96,
        "entry_odds": 3.23,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "12/14",
        "current_odds": 3.1,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 3.1,
        "pick_team": "Galway United",
        "steam_score": 26,
        "steam_team_name": "Galway United",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 27.0,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 670,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/670.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Derry City",
      "country_code": "IE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
      "country_name": "Ireland",
      "fixture_id": 1492718,
      "goals_away": 0,
      "goals_home": 0,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Ireland",
      "home_team_id": 3851,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3851.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Galway United",
      "league_country": "Ireland",
      "league_id": 357,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/357.webp",
      "league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Ireland",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-19 18:45:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "First Half",
      "status_short": "1H",
      "venue_city": "Galway",
      "venue_name": "Eamonn Deacy Park"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 8.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.3033,
            "best_odd": 2.37,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0659,
            "ev": -0.1931,
            "implied_prob": 0.4064,
            "model_prob": 0.189,
            "p_final": 0.3405
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2763,
            "best_odd": 3.26,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0146,
            "ev": -0.0843,
            "implied_prob": 0.2954,
            "model_prob": 0.2427,
            "p_final": 0.2809
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.1785,
            "best_odd": 3.23,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0482,
            "ev": 0.1188,
            "implied_prob": 0.2982,
            "model_prob": 0.5682,
            "p_final": 0.3464
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.26,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1188,
      "confidence": 7.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
        ],
        "score": 7.0
      },
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-19T19:51:56.934826+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}