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Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Bahia Athletico Paranaense ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.32
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Athletico Paranaense win · Athletico Paranaense 2–1 Bahia
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "e13f0676fc28a8bb5a4960a69a234bc4d6f09b538f6d80a8af94bcad51d68e3d",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.68,
"away_win_prob": 0.4624,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.407,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.593,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2695,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.16,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.71,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.73,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"home_win_prob": 0.2681,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.559,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.441
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Bahia",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Bahia",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Bahia"
},
"away_xg": 1.68,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Bahia",
"confidence": 46.3,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Bahia",
"edge": 0.1714,
"edge_gap": 0.1933,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2913,
"model_prob": 0.4627,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 46.3,
"draw": 26.9,
"home": 26.8
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Bahia"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.32
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.32,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Bahia Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.43,
"market_odds": 3.32,
"model_odds": 2.16,
"overround": 3.4,
"prob_edge": 16.2,
"value_pct": 53.7,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 8,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 26,
"away_score_rate": 81.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 27,
"home_score_rate": 71.1,
"no_prob": 40.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 59.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 59.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.68,
"home_expected": 1.24,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Athletico Paranaense or Draw",
"prob": 53.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Athletico Paranaense or Bahia",
"prob": 73.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Bahia",
"prob": 73.2
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Bahia",
"pick_prob": 73.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 46.2,
"draw_pct": 27.0,
"home_pct": 26.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Bahia"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.92,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 55.9,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 55.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.92,
"under_prob": 44.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 53.7,
"implied_prob": 30.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Bahia Win",
"model_prob": 46.3,
"odds": 3.32
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Bahia",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 29.13,
"draw": 28.45,
"home": 42.42
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 22:29:01",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 21:59:05",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Athletico Paranaense",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.42,
"gap_pp": -15.63,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 26.79
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.45,
"gap_pp": -1.51,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 26.94
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.13,
"gap_pp": 17.14,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 46.27
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 55.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"gap_pp": -5.9,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 44.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.28,
"early": 2.28,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.42,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.42,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.4,
"early": 3.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.45,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.32,
"early": 3.32,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.13,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.13,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.94,
"early": 1.94,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.0,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.94,
"early": 1.94,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 17.1,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -3.5,
"ev": -0.2384,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.8,
"market_prob": 0.1471,
"market_prob_pct": 14.7,
"model_prob": 0.112,
"model_prob_pct": 11.2,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.2
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.24,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"best_odds": 3.34,
"confidence": "lean",
"display_label": "Away Bahia",
"edge": 16.3,
"ev": 54.6,
"probability": 46.3
},
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5046,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0285,
"edge_pp": 2.8,
"market_prob": 0.5026,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.559,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5046,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0285,
"ev": 0.009,
"implied_prob": 0.5026,
"model_prob": 0.559,
"p_final": 0.5311
},
"p_final": 0.5311,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0621,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.009,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5046,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": -0.0285,
"ev": -0.0997,
"implied_prob": 0.4974,
"model_prob": 0.441,
"p_final": 0.4689
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0845,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.5,
"text": "+8.5%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1401,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.0,
"text": "-14.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0845,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 55.9,
"sort_key": 10226.05,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 44.1,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "value_alert",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 3.32,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.094,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.4,
"text": "+9.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2913,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.094,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.4,
"text": "+9.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4627,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5362,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Bahia",
"sort_key": 10084.6,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5443,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0209,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.5547,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.593,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4948,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1132,
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"model_prob": 0.407,
"p_final": 0.4264
},
"p_final": 0.5755,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0097,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0389,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5443,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": -0.0389,
"implied_prob": 0.5547,
"model_prob": 0.593,
"p_final": 0.5755
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1453,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.5,
"text": "-14.5%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0259,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.6,
"text": "+2.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0259,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 40.7,
"sort_key": 5220.72,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 59.3
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 813.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"alert_team": "Athletico Paranaense",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 17.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 17.11,
"hero_label": "Bahia",
"market_prob_pct": 29.1,
"market_team": "Athletico Paranaense",
"model_prob_pct": 46.2,
"model_team": "Bahia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Bahia), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Bahia), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5361,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bahia at 46.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bahia as the value side (46.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bahia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Bahia \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.75 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +54% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492380 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.75 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Bahia), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +54% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.094,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.32,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2913,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4627,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30120481927710846,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5362,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 24.4,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"bet_status": "value_alert",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (17 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 67,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 17.11,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 17.11,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.68,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 24.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.24,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.68,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.24 \u00b7 Away xG 1.68 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +24%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"steam_team": "Athletico Paranaense",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Bahia), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Bahia), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5361,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bahia at 46.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bahia as the value side (46.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bahia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Bahia \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.75 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +54% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492380 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.75 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Bahia), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +54% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.094,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.32,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2913,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4627,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30120481927710846,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5362,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 24.4,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Athletico Paranaense 1.24 xG vs Bahia 1.68 \u2192 Bahia 46.2%",
"Market: Athletico Paranaense ~29.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Athletico Paranaense odds \u2191 +12.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Bahia, but market pricing diverges by 17 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -15.61,
"fair_prob": 26.81,
"label": "Athletico Paranaense",
"market_prob": 42.42,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.5,
"fair_prob": 26.95,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.11,
"fair_prob": 46.24,
"label": "Bahia",
"market_prob": 29.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.54,
"fair_prob": 55.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 50.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.54,
"fair_prob": 44.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 49.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.04,
"fair_prob": 59.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.04,
"fair_prob": 40.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 17.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 46.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Bahia",
"market_prob_pct": 29.13,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Athletico Paranaense"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Bahia\u0027s win probability at 46.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 29.1%, a difference of 17.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 17.11,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Bahia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+17.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 17.1,
"model_prob_pct": 46.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+17.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 17.1,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 67,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Bahia \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+17.1 pp).",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Athletico Paranaense 1.24 xG vs Bahia 1.68 \u2192 Bahia 46.2%",
"Market: Athletico Paranaense ~29.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Athletico Paranaense odds \u2191 +12.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Bahia, but market pricing diverges by 17 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 17.11,
"hero_label": "Bahia",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Athletico Paranaense odds lengthened \u2191 +12.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Athletico Paranaense has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Bahia.",
"note": "Drift away from Athletico Paranaense \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Bahia.",
"However, Athletico Paranaense has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Athletico Paranaense \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Bahia more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Athletico Paranaense has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Athletico Paranaense."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 17.11,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 19.3 pp (at 46.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 19.3,
"max_prob_pct": 46.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Bahia",
"largest_gap_pp": 17.1,
"lead": "The model rates Bahia considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 17.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -15.61,
"edge_pp": -15.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Athletico Paranaense",
"market_prob_pct": 42.42,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.5,
"edge_pp": -1.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.95,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.45,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 17.11,
"edge_pp": 17.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 46.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Bahia",
"market_prob_pct": 29.13,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Athletico Paranaense \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Athletico Paranaense (29.1%).",
"Athletico Paranaense odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +12.5%, 9/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Bahia, Market \u2192 Athletico Paranaense, while Athletico Paranaense odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.12,
"closing_odds": 3.32,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.12,
"entry_odds": 3.32,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 157h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Athletico Paranaense (12.5%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.28",
"2.14",
"2.00"
],
"display": "2.28 \u2192 2.00 \u2192 2.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 157h 59m",
"pick_team": "Athletico Paranaense",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.28"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.0,
2.28,
2.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.9",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.28"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on Athletico Paranaense",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Athletico Paranaense",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Athletico Paranaense",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Athletico Paranaense",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_team_name": "Athletico Paranaense",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 17.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "bahia",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Bahia",
"away_team_id": 118,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/118.webp",
"away_team_name": "Bahia",
"away_team_public_id": "1QMvPlZYgYKxNv",
"away_team_slug": "bahia",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1492380,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Athletico Paranaense",
"home_team_id": 134,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/134.webp",
"home_team_name": "Athletico Paranaense",
"home_team_public_id": "4PvGbDJnML5mhQ",
"home_team_slug": "atletico-paranaense",
"ht.home_team_slug": "atletico-paranaense",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie A Brazil",
"league_id": 71,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/71.webp",
"league_name": "Serie A Brazil",
"league_public_id": "0wg055kq66Q9K5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 22:30:00",
"public_id": "2gCGk9aTLy97SL",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Curitiba",
"venue_name": "Arena da Baixada"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2229,
"best_odd": 3.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0382,
"ev": 0.094,
"implied_prob": 0.2913,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2913,
"draw": 0.2845,
"home": 0.4242
},
"model_prob": 0.4627,
"p_final": 0.3295
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2932,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0044,
"ev": -0.0478,
"implied_prob": 0.2845,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2913,
"draw": 0.2845,
"home": 0.4242
},
"model_prob": 0.2694,
"p_final": 0.28
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3445,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0538,
"ev": -0.1556,
"implied_prob": 0.4242,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2913,
"draw": 0.2845,
"home": 0.4242
},
"model_prob": 0.2679,
"p_final": 0.3704
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.32,
"edge": 0.1615,
"ev": 0.5361,
"implied_prob": 0.3012,
"model_prob": 0.4627
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": -0.0247,
"ev": -0.0841,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.2694
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": -0.1707,
"ev": -0.3891,
"implied_prob": 0.4386,
"model_prob": 0.2679
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4948,
"alpha_yes": 0.5443,
"best_no_odd": 2.1,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0404,
"edge_yes": 0.0404,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1453,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1132,
"ev_yes": 0.0259,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0389,
"implied_no": 0.4474,
"implied_yes": 0.5526,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4948,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1132,
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"model_prob": 0.407,
"p_final": 0.4264
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5443,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": -0.0389,
"implied_prob": 0.5547,
"model_prob": 0.593,
"p_final": 0.5755
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4264,
"p_final_yes": 0.5755,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5046,
"alpha_under": 0.5046,
"best_over_odd": 1.94,
"best_under_odd": 1.95,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.9,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.92,
"edge_over": 0.0554,
"edge_under": -0.0554,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0845,
"ev_over_risk_adj": 0.009,
"ev_under": -0.1401,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0997,
"implied_over": 0.5036,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5026,
"implied_under": 0.4964,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4974,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5046,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0285,
"ev": 0.009,
"implied_prob": 0.5026,
"model_prob": 0.559,
"p_final": 0.5311
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5046,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": -0.0285,
"ev": -0.0997,
"implied_prob": 0.4974,
"model_prob": 0.441,
"p_final": 0.4689
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5311,
"p_final_under": 0.4689,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.92,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5361,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.094,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.3
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "value_alert",
"final_decision": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Bahia), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5361,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bahia at 46.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bahia as the value side (46.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bahia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Bahia \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.75 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +54% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492380 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.75 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Bahia), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +54% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.094,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.32,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2913,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4627,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30120481927710846,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5362,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 24.4,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.593,
"draw_prob": 0.2694,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4627,
"over_prob": 0.559,
"total_xg": 2.92,
"under_prob": 0.441,
"xg_diff": 0.44
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
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"side_label": "Bahia"
},
"btts": {
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"no": {
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"p_final": 0.4264
},
"p_final": 0.5755,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0389,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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},
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"over": {
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},
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},
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},
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}
},
"match_id": 1492380,
"match_regime": {
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"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.094,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
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},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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},
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"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
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"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
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"home": "Athletico Paranaense"
},
"top_pick": {
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"ev": 0.0845,
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "over",
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},
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"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "+9.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.32,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2913,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4627,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.1,
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}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492380,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T22:29:06.020047+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Athletico Paranaense & Bahia!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Serie A Brazil — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 57 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 48 |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 45 |
| 7 | Atlético Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 38 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 28 |
| 19 | Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 18 |
| 20 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | 55 | 23 | +32 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 28 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 48 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 43 | 32 | +11 | 49 |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 46 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 45 |
| 7 | Santos | 27 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 38 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 28 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 35 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Atlético Mineiro | 27 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 40 |
| 11 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 31 |
| 12 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 36 |
| 13 | Mirassol | 28 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 32 |
| 14 | São Paulo | 27 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 36 |
| 15 | Remo | 28 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 28 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Corinthians | 28 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 32 |
| 19 | Chapecoense | 27 | 29 | 53 | -24 | 18 |
| 20 | Vitória | 28 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 33 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bahia | 28 | 12.2 | 6.9 | +5.3 | 46 |
| 2 | Santos | 27 | 9.9 | 6.6 | +3.3 | 38 |
| 3 | Flamengo | 28 | 9.0 | 5.7 | +3.3 | 60 |
| 4 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 9.2 | 6.1 | +3.1 | 31 |
| 5 | Atlético Mineiro | 27 | 5.9 | 2.9 | +3.0 | 40 |
| 6 | Corinthians | 28 | 7.2 | 4.7 | +2.5 | 32 |
| 7 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 10.2 | 8.1 | +2.1 | 49 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 28 | 8.7 | 6.8 | +1.9 | 48 |
| 9 | Palmeiras | 28 | 8.2 | 6.5 | +1.7 | 57 |
| 10 | Botafogo | 28 | 11.0 | 10.9 | +0.1 | 35 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 4.9 | 4.8 | +0.1 | 36 |
| 12 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 4.9 | 5.7 | -0.8 | 36 |
| 13 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 9.3 | 10.2 | -0.9 | 45 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 28 | 7.1 | 9.0 | -1.9 | 32 |
| 15 | Remo | 28 | 5.6 | 7.7 | -2.1 | 23 |
| 16 | Coritiba | 28 | 4.9 | 7.1 | -2.2 | 38 |
| 17 | Chapecoense | 27 | 7.3 | 9.9 | -2.6 | 18 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 8.8 | 11.5 | -2.7 | 28 |
| 19 | Vitória | 28 | 6.6 | 11.7 | -5.1 | 33 |
| 20 | Grêmio | 28 | 5.3 | 13.5 | -8.2 | 29 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | — | — | — | 10 |
